Presidential Elections

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peppy said:
"Senator, you whipped out that Mexican thing again" [Mike Pence]

That was odd, considering building a wall to keep Mexicans out and complaining about free trade have been Trump's two biggest issues raised at every rally.
 
Perspective said:
That was odd, considering building a wall to keep Mexicans out and complaining about free trade have been Trump's two biggest issues raised at every rally.
Don't be so racist ;).  He's building a wall to keep illegal immigrants out.  Mexicans have the option to come here legally.  Not all Mexicans are here illegally, you know.

Whether the wall will work or not and whether or not it's feasible is another story.
 
For sure I'm going with Trump. I understand he is not some polished talking head, but he doesn't have near the smut Clinton does. She only has one thing on her mind, and that is being the first woman President, period. She is everything good parents teach their children not to be. Besides, how well would our economy do with another 12-14 Trillion in debt? I'm not eager to find out..
 
SuperSuper said:
For sure I'm going with Trump. I understand he is not some polished talking head, but he doesn't have near the smut Clinton does. She only has one thing on her mind, and that is being the first woman President, period. She is everything good parents teach their children not to be. Besides, how well would our economy do with another 12-14 Trillion in debt? I'm not eager to find out..

If you're not interested in increasing the national debt, then you might want to reconsider your support for Trump after reviewing analysis of his tax proposal.

Analysis of Donald Trump's Tax Planhttp://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-tax-plan/full
 
Oh I have, but at least he will create the jobs that on the backside can start paying it down. Hillarys jobs creation will be --drum role -- Government jobs, that produce nothing BUT more debt. Naw, Obama was the progressives swan song, that paradigm is in its death convulsions and they Democratic party will not rebound nationally until they move away from extremist progressive ideals and back toward JFK Style true democratic principles. By the way, Reaganomics and Trump ideas were all taken from JFK. This drug inspired, radical left wing socialism, is a  left over from the 60's progressiveism. Its an enormous failure in every sector of our lives. Well unless you are transsexual. I guess you more rights now or something?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdGBQoL_28I
 
Remember Prop 187, the one where all the polls said would lose by a wide margin because it was so politically incorrect but then passed?  I think we will see the same with Trump.  No matter what some people tell the pollsters, what happens in the privacy of the polling booth will be a different story.
 
Happiness said:
Remember Prop 187, the one where all the polls said would lose by a wide margin because it was so politically incorrect but then passed?  I think we will see the same with Trump.  No matter what some people tell the pollsters, what happens in the privacy of the polling booth will be a different story.

You are talking about the reverse Mayor Bradley effect?  (Political junkies know what I'm talking about)
I don't think that will happen.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-...outperform-negative-1466181939-htmlstory.html
 
Happiness said:
Remember Prop 187, the one where all the polls said would lose by a wide margin because it was so politically incorrect but then passed?  I think we will see the same with Trump.  No matter what some people tell the pollsters, what happens in the privacy of the polling booth will be a different story.

Sounds like a reasonable theory, but aren't polls taken anonymously too? I can completely understand being ashamed to admit to friends that you support Trump, but ashamed to admit this to some random pollster calling you? Not sure I buy that.
 
Perspective said:
Happiness said:
Remember Prop 187, the one where all the polls said would lose by a wide margin because it was so politically incorrect but then passed?  I think we will see the same with Trump.  No matter what some people tell the pollsters, what happens in the privacy of the polling booth will be a different story.

Sounds like a reasonable theory, but aren't polls taken anonymously too? I can completely understand being ashamed to admit to friends that you support Trump, but ashamed to admit this to some random pollster calling you? Not sure I buy that.
People tell others what they think that person wants to hear, including pollsters.  For example, polls always predict strong support for gun control measures but these measure almost always fail in actual voting. In the case of Prop 187, no one wanted to say, even anonymously, that they feared illegal aliens because we've been conditioned to believe that is not a rational belief. Today, many fear Muslims but we know the answer expected of us, even from a pollster, is that that is an irrational belief.
 
Perspective said:
Happiness said:
Remember Prop 187, the one where all the polls said would lose by a wide margin because it was so politically incorrect but then passed?  I think we will see the same with Trump.  No matter what some people tell the pollsters, what happens in the privacy of the polling booth will be a different story.

Sounds like a reasonable theory, but aren't polls taken anonymously too? I can completely understand being ashamed to admit to friends that you support Trump, but ashamed to admit this to some random pollster calling you? Not sure I buy that.

You need to "unskew" the polls.
 
SuperSuper said:
For sure I'm going with Trump. I understand he is not some polished talking head, but he doesn't have near the smut Clinton does. She only has one thing on her mind, and that is being the first woman President, period. She is everything good parents teach their children not to be. Besides, how well would our economy do with another 12-14 Trillion in debt? I'm not eager to find out..

Trump is everything I would teach children not to be. He is a complete narcissist who can't talk for more than a few minutes without contradicting himself, lying, insulting others, and expressing paranoia. He has no attention span, which is part of what has led to him doing no preparation for the most powerful job in the world. The other part that leads him to not preparing is that he thinks waaaaay too much of himself.

When I have been part of hiring someone for a job, I don't think I've ever heard anyone say that we should hire the guy with no experience who thinks he's better than everyone with experience and who hasn't bothered to prepare for the job interview.
 
Happiness said:
Perspective said:
Happiness said:
Remember Prop 187, the one where all the polls said would lose by a wide margin because it was so politically incorrect but then passed?  I think we will see the same with Trump.  No matter what some people tell the pollsters, what happens in the privacy of the polling booth will be a different story.

Sounds like a reasonable theory, but aren't polls taken anonymously too? I can completely understand being ashamed to admit to friends that you support Trump, but ashamed to admit this to some random pollster calling you? Not sure I buy that.
People tell others what they think that person wants to hear, including pollsters.  For example, polls always predict strong support for gun control measures but these measure almost always fail in actual voting. In the case of Prop 187, no one wanted to say, even anonymously, that they feared illegal aliens because we've been conditioned to believe that is not a rational belief. Today, many fear Muslims but we know the answer expected of us, even from a pollster, is that that is an irrational belief.

Are you recalling the Prop 187 polls correctly?

"Originally one of several immigration reform bills placed before the California legislature in the early 1990s, polls surveying community responses showed that Proposition 187 began with widespread support - a 37-point lead in July 1994, and 62-29% lead among likely voters by September 1994.
...
On November 8, 1994, California voters approved the proposition by a wide margin: 59% to 41%.[8] According to the Los Angeles Times exit polls, 63% of non-Hispanic white voters and 23% of Latino voters voted for Proposition 187; African-American and ethnic Asian voters split their voting equally for and against the law. Although non-Hispanic whites comprised 57% of California's population at the time, they comprised 81% of voters in the 1994 general election. Latinos totaled 8% of voters, although they comprised 26% of the state's population."https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_187
 
peppy said:
Perspective said:
Happiness said:
Remember Prop 187, the one where all the polls said would lose by a wide margin because it was so politically incorrect but then passed?  I think we will see the same with Trump.  No matter what some people tell the pollsters, what happens in the privacy of the polling booth will be a different story.

Sounds like a reasonable theory, but aren't polls taken anonymously too? I can completely understand being ashamed to admit to friends that you support Trump, but ashamed to admit this to some random pollster calling you? Not sure I buy that.

You need to "unskew" the polls.

Do you think pollsters want inaccurate poll results? Are they not trying to eliminate skewing?
 
If there's one thing that explains enthusiastic Trump support best, it might be this:

Older white workers without a college degree have really gotten torched

"If you were a white kid who went to work straight out of high school around 1975, you earned roughly $44,000 two decades later. By 2014, on average, your pay had fallen to $32,000, a stunning 27% decline in real terms, after accounting for inflation. You spent what were supposed to be your peak earning years?your 40s and 50s?falling behind."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/older...ree-have-really-gotten-torched-180307835.html
 
Perspective said:
If there's one thing that explains enthusiastic Trump support best, it might be this:

Older white workers without a college degree have really gotten torched

"If you were a white kid who went to work straight out of high school around 1975, you earned roughly $44,000 two decades later. By 2014, on average, your pay had fallen to $32,000, a stunning 27% decline in real terms, after accounting for inflation. You spent what were supposed to be your peak earning years?your 40s and 50s?falling behind."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/older...ree-have-really-gotten-torched-180307835.html

I still don't get the slogan: Make America Great Again (Doesn't make sense)

Also, we are not a third world country. (I have been to third world countries, and trust me we are not)

 
eyephone said:
Perspective said:
If there's one thing that explains enthusiastic Trump support best, it might be this:

Older white workers without a college degree have really gotten torched

"If you were a white kid who went to work straight out of high school around 1975, you earned roughly $44,000 two decades later. By 2014, on average, your pay had fallen to $32,000, a stunning 27% decline in real terms, after accounting for inflation. You spent what were supposed to be your peak earning years?your 40s and 50s?falling behind."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/older...ree-have-really-gotten-torched-180307835.html

I still don't get the slogan: Make America Great Again (Doesn't make sense)

Also, we are not a third world country. (I have been to third world countries, and trust me we are not)

Agreed, but Obama's "Hope & Change" slogan was equally nonsensical. The difference here, is that Trump's slogan claims at some point in the past, America was great, and now it isn't. When was it great? Before women, LGBTers, and non-white folks had many civil rights?
 
Perspective said:
eyephone said:
Perspective said:
If there's one thing that explains enthusiastic Trump support best, it might be this:

Older white workers without a college degree have really gotten torched

"If you were a white kid who went to work straight out of high school around 1975, you earned roughly $44,000 two decades later. By 2014, on average, your pay had fallen to $32,000, a stunning 27% decline in real terms, after accounting for inflation. You spent what were supposed to be your peak earning years?your 40s and 50s?falling behind."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/older...ree-have-really-gotten-torched-180307835.html

I still don't get the slogan: Make America Great Again (Doesn't make sense)

Also, we are not a third world country. (I have been to third world countries, and trust me we are not)

Agreed, but Obama's "Hope & Change" slogan was equally nonsensical. The difference here, is that Trump's slogan claims at some point in the past, America was great, and now it isn't. When was it great? Before women, LGBTers, and non-white folks had many civil rights?

Look at the Dow at all time high. Wasn't there a recovery from the Great Recession?
 
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