Laguna Altura homes
- Thread starter pixie122
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
well, since the original premise is out.. yes, I have less conviction and i dont know if i'd be willing to lose that much on a coin flip... i was just wondering if he (or IHS) would be willing to gamble on a large drop (which is what i'd be willing to bet a lot of money on)... ill think about this, and im not opposed to forming some sort of wager.
i think we can all agree that indie's official stance 1) market is currently overpriced 2) real estate is downward trending 3) believes TIC's product offering is weak and that he wouldnt buy anything 4) $100,000 is meaningless to him
So you're admitting your original bet was one-sided and lame?
You had your chest out when the bet was in your favor, now that a more even bet has been proposed, you disappear. Are you married to screenname so_scared by chance?
What's wrong is that you're attempting to call someone out with a stupid offer no one will take, while acting like it's a fair offer. A waste of time and an annoyance. but i would never expect you to understand based on your lame response.
But... even IHS has said... they could just stop building new homes:
I don't like Laguna Altura for a variety of reasons... price being the big one. I think $1mil will have more value over at QH for a less dense area with closer amenities.
New builds have built-in price erosion protection (something the legendary BK used to talk about)... so 20% in 2 years is a bit extreme... but over 4 years, if the economy stays flat... a large percentage could happen as it has in Woodbury, Portola and Villages of Columbus. But as others have mentioned, since this is a totally TIC-controlled project... they will do things to disguise that large of a drop.
So the odds favor akim's "20% drop in 2 years" but not for all the same reasons why I think Irvine has non-fundamental price resilience. 2 years is not a very long time... LA has already been opened for 10 months and they are still in only the beginning phases. These might still be new home construction in 2014. So you can't really bank on something you don't control as this is even more tenuous than a simple resale home.
Since akim's over/under is 20%, and IndieDev's is 0%... why not an in-the-middle 10% drop? Seems like an even-money bet... but I wouldn't take either side because TIC is the dealer holding all the cards.
Which I never claimed or hinted at, mentioned, predicted, or even thought of.
Yes, yes, I think everyone on TI is well acquainted with your awesome , well thought out theory on Irvine price resiliency:
indie - i dont feel bad regarding the news and i have no interest in seeing irvine prices rise or even hold. i am a bear and have patiently waited for at least 5 years but pretty much have been looking at houses since i got engaged 10 years ago. so i definitely have patience and want prices to continue to fall. like IHS said, he bought in 2006 for his reasons and i might end up buying soon as well even though i fully know and understand that prices will continue to slide.
i have never been annoyed or mad at the point you make but its the better than thou attitude when all you are presenting is an opinion and nothing more. most of the time, you just say the equivalent of "i am super smart and super rich and you are dumb and poor" with very little to add to the actual thread and conversation. and if someone calls you out, you say how you have studied data and models and they dont lie but you never actually demonstrate that knowledge.
instead of saying that the data points a continuing down trend, what do you see happening in an area like WB? direction is useful with a time horizon and some model of potential impact. otherwise its really not useful for this discussion. i am saying new WB homes will be about $325 in 2-3 years (if they even are still building in WB) and probably have more designer credit and other stuff. as IHS always says, builders can just turn other dials to disguise the real price but i dont think they will advertise below $325.
i am fine with you thinking its a dumb move to lose $75k as well. i think i am pretty analytical and not making the decision lightly. of course you think you are smarter and probably dont think you can get any insight from others so i am wasting energy explaining my logic but here goes nonetheless. between moving an extra time and renting a 4b in WB to wait for that WB house, i would spend over $70K so if that property falls $75K, did I really gain anything? yes my prop tax basis is lower but from a total $$$ POV, what big thing changed? not to mention, we would have to move twice instead of once and with expanding family, we really want to feel settled but thats all the emotional part of the equation.
you are the crazy lady walking down the street yelling profanities. sure you get views but i dont think anyone wants to be you or respects you. you are a bully and a poser. you mention how rich you are extremely often.
are you kidding? you guys constantly put down people for liking something of TICs or dare say it, buy a product and try to share the positives or why they made the decision. not everyone is brainwashed and hypnotized by TIC marketing and buying lipstick on a pig products. IHS actually clarifies when pressed on why the build quality is bad or what to look for so he is at least helpful. most of the TIC stuff might be inferior quality build and maybe many of us arent discerning buyers but that stuff doesnt bother me. it goes back to your delivery of message.
Regardless of what *you* interpret IHS as saying... he's said the same thing before (way before you came along)... but won't confirm it now (even though I've caught it in quotes) because he wants to continue to stay your buddy. In fact, how do you interpret this?
And don't think I forgot that your original claim was that TIC never stopped building new homes... they have. And when I pointed it out to you, you shifted your claim to "well... they never stopped building because of your reasons".
Continue to dance... we're still waiting for you to address this whole "I'm not an Irvine home owner" claim you put out there (which I figure you backed off on once you knew your next argument would also affect your buddies). Oh... and there's still Antioch you have yet to face.
I'll follow you to the end of the earth, baby. Keep it coming!
I like the way you're always here in this thread, responding to all my posts, no matter how trivial. Thank you.
You weren't here when that conversation started and in fact, I gleaned that opinion off your twin on IHB in regards to how TIC was planning to preserve pricing in Irvine when the bubble was popping. I mentioned that same strategy here in regards to Laguna Altura and it gave someone hives.
That's why I find it so ironic... you may try to color it differently, but the way I see it... Indie is calling YOUR opinion "asinine"... awesome.
IHS > indie
i used to like indie, i still do actually. seems like a smart guy. does make the threads more interesting. my only problem with him is he talks a big game then when challenged does not back it up and uses his "principals" as an excuse - which adds an element of fakeness to his online persona. reminds me of a school yard bully who is finally challenged and then backs down.
Step your game up indie.
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
Indie and myself have been through a couple of these recessions to know the patterns. 2006 was not a good year to buy but I had my emotional reasons to buy and luckily was able to take advantage of your tax dollars for my greedy loan mod. So I will just leave it at that.
Irvine's new home pricings are struggling. Rather than trying to compete with the resales even TIC is holding back supply because the news of slow absorption will lead to lowering prices to move inventory.
The first strategy is to entice buyers with free upgrade incentives to keep the current prices as official record. The rule #1 is to never lower the price because then the consumers will expect more price concession in the future. Other consumers can't see the hidden freebies written into the deal so they might think the homes are selling at the WTF prices so the homes must be a good value. Especially for Asians who behave in a herd mentality this is a crucial strategy.
TIC 's goal right now is to get some media publicity that LA is selling fast. This phase is all sold out is one such strategy eventhough there were only 2 homes in that phase. Free upgrades such as finishes, room options, landscape, cash back toward down payment, and commission free for contingent buyers may already be in the works to lure those buyers for publicity.
TIC is already in the process of replacing the inferior products with products that have driveway. Consumers definitely are winning. This is the incentive why you should not buy now because you will get more house, yard and driveway for the same price. The buyers who bought the 2010 collection are classic examples. The newer products in Stonegate are lowered price and live similarly in identical footage as 2010 collection.
So is LA overpriced and the answer is yes. Will TIC lower the price and that is a resounding NO. However, when the products don't move TIC will have to replace them with a higher quality solution but keeping the same selling price. This is when the consumers will benefit. The products will likely have driveway, a better yard size, possibly a formal dining or even a 2-1/2 car garage to really address the buyers need. Is it stupid to buy now and that is a yes. For the same price you will get a revised product that will be so much better. If TIC is smart a respiratory rehabilitation room downstairs would be a big hit.
Irvine resale median housing price next year will we lower due to lack lustre activity this year. That will put pressure on TIC to find a new equilibrium. TIC will likely raise rent all across IAC villages thus edging ownership closer to rental parity.
Neither Indie or me are discouraging you to buy. If you exercise more patient the future fundamental effect on housing will force TIC to build a better house to entice you. That is precisely the point.
The current methodology is to strip away house and land to appeal to your price point but if all of you resist TIC can't afford to stop construction completely for a long period of time because the staff need to eat too. TIC can wait a year so staff could collect their salary by doing market research but that can't go on indefinitely and Bren must see progress. That is when the consumers will get back what had been stripped away and getting them for today's price.
(Revised to edit out typos) I hate the thank you button location because the sweeping motion on my IPad accidentally gave IHO too many unintended thanks.
Irvine's new home pricings are struggling. Rather than trying to compete with the resales even TIC is holding back supply because the news of slow absorption will lead to lowering prices to move inventory.
The first strategy is to entice buyers with free upgrade incentives to keep the current prices as official record. The rule #1 is to never lower the price because then the consumers will expect more price concession in the future. Other consumers can't see the hidden freebies written into the deal so they might think the homes are selling at the WTF prices so the homes must be a good value. Especially for Asians who behave in a herd mentality this is a crucial strategy.
TIC 's goal right now is to get some media publicity that LA is selling fast. This phase is all sold out is one such strategy eventhough there were only 2 homes in that phase. Free upgrades such as finishes, room options, landscape, cash back toward down payment, and commission free for contingent buyers may already be in the works to lure those buyers for publicity.
TIC is already in the process of replacing the inferior products with products that have driveway. Consumers definitely are winning. This is the incentive why you should not buy now because you will get more house, yard and driveway for the same price. The buyers who bought the 2010 collection are classic examples. The newer products in Stonegate are lowered price and live similarly in identical footage as 2010 collection.
So is LA overpriced and the answer is yes. Will TIC lower the price and that is a resounding NO. However, when the products don't move TIC will have to replace them with a higher quality solution but keeping the same selling price. This is when the consumers will benefit. The products will likely have driveway, a better yard size, possibly a formal dining or even a 2-1/2 car garage to really address the buyers need. Is it stupid to buy now and that is a yes. For the same price you will get a revised product that will be so much better. If TIC is smart a respiratory rehabilitation room downstairs would be a big hit.
Irvine resale median housing price next year will we lower due to lack lustre activity this year. That will put pressure on TIC to find a new equilibrium. TIC will likely raise rent all across IAC villages thus edging ownership closer to rental parity.
Neither Indie or me are discouraging you to buy. If you exercise more patient the future fundamental effect on housing will force TIC to build a better house to entice you. That is precisely the point.
The current methodology is to strip away house and land to appeal to your price point but if all of you resist TIC can't afford to stop construction completely for a long period of time because the staff need to eat too. TIC can wait a year so staff could collect their salary by doing market research but that can't go on indefinitely and Bren must see progress. That is when the consumers will get back what had been stripped away and getting them for today's price.
(Revised to edit out typos) I hate the thank you button location because the sweeping motion on my IPad accidentally gave IHO too many unintended thanks.
irvinehomeowner said:
well, since the original premise is out.. yes, I have less conviction and i dont know if i'd be willing to lose that much on a coin flip... i was just wondering if he (or IHS) would be willing to gamble on a large drop (which is what i'd be willing to bet a lot of money on)... ill think about this, and im not opposed to forming some sort of wager.
i think we can all agree that indie's official stance 1) market is currently overpriced 2) real estate is downward trending 3) believes TIC's product offering is weak and that he wouldnt buy anything 4) $100,000 is meaningless to him
IHS. thanks. i see your view point. i dunno, maybe its just me, but your opinion there is much more direct than other posts. I actually agree, that TIC does listen and will make alterations over time. People SHOULDNT think that they don't make a difference. I'm sure the folks over at New Home Company hear the grumblings over Mello Roos (they wouldnt subsidize it for no reason).
Your point is that if we as a group can cooperate and demand (haha almost like unionizing) certain things from TIC as a builder/developer, they will ultimately be forced to provide us a better product/value... i get it. even when I was speaking with sales lady, they are pre-plotting options on older phases based on what potential and existing buyers say they want (i.e. 4th bedroom option downstairs, etc.)
Your point is that if we as a group can cooperate and demand (haha almost like unionizing) certain things from TIC as a builder/developer, they will ultimately be forced to provide us a better product/value... i get it. even when I was speaking with sales lady, they are pre-plotting options on older phases based on what potential and existing buyers say they want (i.e. 4th bedroom option downstairs, etc.)
IndieDev
New member
IHS, let's also add, a lot of the angst that people feel (like rkp) is being misdirected at the people delivering the message. IHS and I are simply pointing out that Laguna Altura's prices are insanity in the current market. There's a reason why they aren't moving quickly, even in full of asian cash buyers Irvine.
If you really want to vent your emotions, and hurt feelings, why not go to one of the TIC research group invites and really let them have it. Make sure to drink all of your TIC branded water, or you may not get to finish before you are shown the door.
IHS and I are simply true Irvine old schoolers, although I am already on the way out. Keep up the good fight when I'm gone IHS.
If you really want to vent your emotions, and hurt feelings, why not go to one of the TIC research group invites and really let them have it. Make sure to drink all of your TIC branded water, or you may not get to finish before you are shown the door.
IHS and I are simply true Irvine old schoolers, although I am already on the way out. Keep up the good fight when I'm gone IHS.
MovingOnUp
New member
akim997 said:
So you're admitting your original bet was one-sided and lame?
You had your chest out when the bet was in your favor, now that a more even bet has been proposed, you disappear. Are you married to screenname so_scared by chance?
haha.. of course i had my chest out when the bet was in my favor. wouldnt you? i (perhaps mistakenly) thought that indie and ihs were super bearish with regards to irvine housing, so i figured if they are willing to take the bet, why not?
i have a strong opinion that Irvine won't be that weak in the years to come, so if someone is willing to bet against a strong conviction of mine, why wouldnt i bet? based on your comment, you seem to agree that irvine prices are more stable than bubble. why would you call it one-sided and lame, though? who knows, maybe somebody here DOES think that prices will drop dramatically in the future. so are you now saying that EVERYONE here all of a sudden agrees that prices are high, but that there is support that would prevent a large drop and that any notion to the contrary is one-sided and lame?
i have a strong opinion that Irvine won't be that weak in the years to come, so if someone is willing to bet against a strong conviction of mine, why wouldnt i bet? based on your comment, you seem to agree that irvine prices are more stable than bubble. why would you call it one-sided and lame, though? who knows, maybe somebody here DOES think that prices will drop dramatically in the future. so are you now saying that EVERYONE here all of a sudden agrees that prices are high, but that there is support that would prevent a large drop and that any notion to the contrary is one-sided and lame?
MovingOnUp
New member
akim997 said:
What's wrong is that you're attempting to call someone out with a stupid offer no one will take, while acting like it's a fair offer. A waste of time and an annoyance. but i would never expect you to understand based on your lame response.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
IndieDev said:
I believe you are your #1 fan.IndieDev said:
And it's "obvious" that you're not sure they will drop 20% either.Indie said:
But... even IHS has said... they could just stop building new homes:
irvinehomeshopper said:
I don't like Laguna Altura for a variety of reasons... price being the big one. I think $1mil will have more value over at QH for a less dense area with closer amenities.
New builds have built-in price erosion protection (something the legendary BK used to talk about)... so 20% in 2 years is a bit extreme... but over 4 years, if the economy stays flat... a large percentage could happen as it has in Woodbury, Portola and Villages of Columbus. But as others have mentioned, since this is a totally TIC-controlled project... they will do things to disguise that large of a drop.
So the odds favor akim's "20% drop in 2 years" but not for all the same reasons why I think Irvine has non-fundamental price resilience. 2 years is not a very long time... LA has already been opened for 10 months and they are still in only the beginning phases. These might still be new home construction in 2014. So you can't really bank on something you don't control as this is even more tenuous than a simple resale home.
Since akim's over/under is 20%, and IndieDev's is 0%... why not an in-the-middle 10% drop? Seems like an even-money bet... but I wouldn't take either side because TIC is the dealer holding all the cards.
IndieDev
New member
irvinehomeowner said:And it's "obvious" that you're not sure they will drop 20% either.
Which I never claimed or hinted at, mentioned, predicted, or even thought of.
Except IHS is saying it as satire and jest, while you actually believe that asinine theory.
Yes, yes, I think everyone on TI is well acquainted with your awesome , well thought out theory on Irvine price resiliency:
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
Indie is correct that was my satirical comment. TIC will not stop building. Bren will not keep his staff on payroll for doing nothing. Staff must convince Bren that this is a good market so let's build. In the meantime the staffs are borrowing time such as market research, retooling floor plans, adding driveways, resizing yards, adding wok kitchen and a bunch of other things they convinced Bren that will add appeal to products without reducing price. Everyone is afraid of layoff. The management team has already admitted to the mistakes at LA at a BIA meetingheld at LA. One of them was reusing floor plans and no differentiations between price segmentation. Construction is vital to everyone employment. The temporary strategy is shifting crews to building apartments at Cypress Village and South Central LA.
TIC is stuck right now with built infrastructure at LA such as major streets and utilities underneath them. The modified plans would not be leaps and bounds due to the utility constraints.
TIC is stuck right now with built infrastructure at LA such as major streets and utilities underneath them. The modified plans would not be leaps and bounds due to the utility constraints.
IndieDev said:
indie - i dont feel bad regarding the news and i have no interest in seeing irvine prices rise or even hold. i am a bear and have patiently waited for at least 5 years but pretty much have been looking at houses since i got engaged 10 years ago. so i definitely have patience and want prices to continue to fall. like IHS said, he bought in 2006 for his reasons and i might end up buying soon as well even though i fully know and understand that prices will continue to slide.
i have never been annoyed or mad at the point you make but its the better than thou attitude when all you are presenting is an opinion and nothing more. most of the time, you just say the equivalent of "i am super smart and super rich and you are dumb and poor" with very little to add to the actual thread and conversation. and if someone calls you out, you say how you have studied data and models and they dont lie but you never actually demonstrate that knowledge.
instead of saying that the data points a continuing down trend, what do you see happening in an area like WB? direction is useful with a time horizon and some model of potential impact. otherwise its really not useful for this discussion. i am saying new WB homes will be about $325 in 2-3 years (if they even are still building in WB) and probably have more designer credit and other stuff. as IHS always says, builders can just turn other dials to disguise the real price but i dont think they will advertise below $325.
i am fine with you thinking its a dumb move to lose $75k as well. i think i am pretty analytical and not making the decision lightly. of course you think you are smarter and probably dont think you can get any insight from others so i am wasting energy explaining my logic but here goes nonetheless. between moving an extra time and renting a 4b in WB to wait for that WB house, i would spend over $70K so if that property falls $75K, did I really gain anything? yes my prop tax basis is lower but from a total $$$ POV, what big thing changed? not to mention, we would have to move twice instead of once and with expanding family, we really want to feel settled but thats all the emotional part of the equation.
you are the crazy lady walking down the street yelling profanities. sure you get views but i dont think anyone wants to be you or respects you. you are a bully and a poser. you mention how rich you are extremely often.
are you kidding? you guys constantly put down people for liking something of TICs or dare say it, buy a product and try to share the positives or why they made the decision. not everyone is brainwashed and hypnotized by TIC marketing and buying lipstick on a pig products. IHS actually clarifies when pressed on why the build quality is bad or what to look for so he is at least helpful. most of the TIC stuff might be inferior quality build and maybe many of us arent discerning buyers but that stuff doesnt bother me. it goes back to your delivery of message.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
You not taking the bet at simple face value is enough of a hint. You tried to dodge it by framing it in a way that it needed a purpose or had to be less complex... or did qwerty not explain that to you already?IndieDev said:irvinehomeowner said:And it's "obvious" that you're not sure they will drop 20% either.
Which I never claimed or hinted at, mentioned, predicted, or even thought of.
Not really... he says they will move the construction to apartments to preserve the work force... but it's still halting the building of new projects. They did it for Orchard Hills, mid-way into Woodbury and Portola and they can do it again. Whether or not it helped preserve a further deterioration of prices is what we disagree on... but the point is if TIC wants to stop building based on demand or Bren's whim... they can. New home construction is NOT their sole source of revenue.Indie said:
Regardless of what *you* interpret IHS as saying... he's said the same thing before (way before you came along)... but won't confirm it now (even though I've caught it in quotes) because he wants to continue to stay your buddy. In fact, how do you interpret this?
So that still means they will stop building new homes. Do you remember what the original opening date of Orchard Hills was?irvinehomeshopper said:
And don't think I forgot that your original claim was that TIC never stopped building new homes... they have. And when I pointed it out to you, you shifted your claim to "well... they never stopped building because of your reasons".
Continue to dance... we're still waiting for you to address this whole "I'm not an Irvine home owner" claim you put out there (which I figure you backed off on once you knew your next argument would also affect your buddies). Oh... and there's still Antioch you have yet to face.
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
TIC can't stop construction period. In the meantime there is a temporary hold on new homes while the crews are working on apartments. Orchard Hills is the crown jewel of TIC 's development so TIC will wait for pricing recovery. In the meantime value villages are moving forward. OH is not urgent. LA, , Potty Springs, Cypress Village, South Central LA and blog monitoring are plenty on TIC's plate.
traceimage
New member
IndieDev said:
I'll follow you to the end of the earth, baby. Keep it coming!
I like the way you're always here in this thread, responding to all my posts, no matter how trivial. Thank you.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
I didn't stay stop construction... I said stop or slow "new home" construction... which is what you just said... again.irvinehomeshopper said:
You weren't here when that conversation started and in fact, I gleaned that opinion off your twin on IHB in regards to how TIC was planning to preserve pricing in Irvine when the bubble was popping. I mentioned that same strategy here in regards to Laguna Altura and it gave someone hives.
That's why I find it so ironic... you may try to color it differently, but the way I see it... Indie is calling YOUR opinion "asinine"... awesome.
qwerty
Well-known member
rkp said:
IHS > indie
i used to like indie, i still do actually. seems like a smart guy. does make the threads more interesting. my only problem with him is he talks a big game then when challenged does not back it up and uses his "principals" as an excuse - which adds an element of fakeness to his online persona. reminds me of a school yard bully who is finally challenged and then backs down.
Step your game up indie.
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
I disagree. He is looking at a macro scale and how the entire Irvine would behave while the rest of us concentrate on one particular neighborhood. if the rest of you think he is a flake then he would not be where he is with that private beach estate. You may argue with him or a blurry pixel but he is focused on the bigger picture. People that micro manage will never get work done or actually in this case buy a house. Those with the bigger vision are the ones signing the big deals or in this case buying a house that could house all of us.