Laguna Altura homes

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
IndieDev said:
Would you say yes/no to a question you don't completely understand the purpose of? That would make you a fool.
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the purpose of the bet is that you would make 100K if you think cortona will go down 20% in two years, because you have not taken the bet, my guess is that you dont think it will.  right now you remind of one of those people with an MBA from wharton, hbs, etc. who always needs to try to sounds smart and out think the room when the situation is perfectly clear and obvious.
 
He is a bull hoping to pick up a house at a bear price. His experience with price economic is limited to a micro scale such as the home he is trying to sell and the new village he set is eye on. Rather than betting on a macro level of the entire Irvine he wants to bet on one specific Laguna Altura project.

So here is my take on this on a new tract. TIC would unlikely lower the price because this would be an admittance of losing the price game. TIC would likely replace the product entirely and then lower the price. Another less expensive technique is to shut down a plan and add another modified plan to the project with a lower value ratio.

I will not bet on Cortona pricing but I will bet TIC will terminate the floor plans and replace them with same size houses on slightly smaller lots then lower the prices.
IndieDev said:
IHS, help me out here, I honestly don't know what platform akim is supporting or what exact point he is trying to make.

Is he a mini-bear, and we're all big bears, and it's really a mini-bear vs big bear battle? Or are we Quail Hill bears, and he isn't? Maybe we're 2% bear and he's 20% bear? I've helped define terms and milestones for international funding between 3 different parties (each with a different native language) for a telecom startup in Jamshedpur, and akim's last post is even more daunting to understand than that document.
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Kind of stupid...

TIC will drop prices of LA another $200k within 2 years when monkeys fly out of my butt.  There are so many better ways for them to spend money whilst maintaining their "value". 

1.  Massive incentives, upgrades, etc. (might be happening but not heavily advertised)
2.  Buy back MR bonds - in part or all
3.  Quick redesign of site to bring back some more amenities- pocket parks, trails, greenbelts, etc.

I'm not saying prices overall Irvine prices won't go down 20% within 2 years..they very well could.  I just think that such a dramatic price decrease is a last resort, and they'd rather do a combination of one or all of the above, with price reduction...if they have to.  Besides, those methods could reach the equivalent of knocking 200k off the prices in terms of the difference in total payment (piti, hoa, mr)...but that wasn't the wager, so that'd be a way of weaseling out of your "bet".  They're more interested in building projects-style apartment buildings right now anyway. 










 
qwerty said:
IndieDev said:
Would you say yes/no to a question you don't completely understand the purpose of? That would make you a fool.
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the purpose of the bet is that you would make 100K if you think cortona will go down 20% in two years, because you have not taken the bet, my guess is that you dont think it will.  right now you remind of one of those people with an MBA from wharton, hbs, etc. who always needs to try to sounds smart and out think the room when the situation is perfectly clear and obvious.
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You're talking about pettifogging. That's not my goal. My goal is to simply understand what the point of the wager is. Right now, I think it's clearly obvious that the wager is pointless since both parties believe Irvine housing will drop. There's really no difference of opinion except akim wants to gamble on percentages, and amounts for a period of time. That's fortune telling, and not my business.
 
This is the most amateurish counter-bet I have seen. At least propose a widely accepted source for medium price that can be mutually agreed upon and define how much lower. You can easily have statistical fluctuations of +/- 3%.

IndieDev said:
I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.
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The Motor Court Company said:
This is the most amateurish counter-bet I have seen. At least propose a widely accepted source for medium price that can be mutually agreed upon and define how much lower. You can easily have statistical fluctuations of +/- 3%.

IndieDev said:
I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.
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I don't know any sources for "medium price", nor would I use such a metric. Maybe I'm too amateur.
 
He meant Median. I will still bet on median price being lower regardless of percentages. To bet on exact percentages the bet will be to Akim's favor.
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
He meant Median. I will still bet on median price being lower regardless of percentages. To bet on exact percentages the bet will be to Akim's favor.
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I'm not betting on percentages either because it's fortune telling. Anyone who tells you they know the exact percentage an asset will appreciate or depreciate over an exact period of time is a con artist.

If prices dropped 16% over two years for Cortana, that would indicate massive price weakness for the neighborhood. Yet on Akim's terms, he would "win" the bet which is why the purpose of the bet makes no sense. I'm all for taking Akim's $100,000, which would all go to charity anyway, but the bet has to make sense.
 
IndieDev said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
He meant Median. I will still bet on median price being lower regardless of percentages. To bet on exact percentages the bet will be to Akim's favor.
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I'm not betting on percentages either because it's fortune telling. If prices dropped 16% over two years for Cortana, that would indicate massive price weakness for the neighborhood. Yet on Akim's terms, he would "win" the bet which is why the purpose of the bet makes no sense. I'm all for taking Akim's $100,000, which would all go to charity anyway, but the bet has to make sense.
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yeah because predicting that the YOY median will not drop is not fortune telling - i think any time you try to predict the future that would qualify as fortune telling. if prices dropped 16% over the next two years you would win the bet, not akim.

Indie - by not taking the bet you are implying you dont believe cortona will drop 20%. Just come out and say it.
 
Cortona will not drop due to TIC's interest. However it will slow absorption greatly. To manipulate a brisky sale impression fewer homes would become a phase. The sales people will say this phase is almost sold out to psych out the buyers.
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
Cortona will not drop due to TIC's interest. However it will slow absorption greatly. To manipulate a brisky sale impression fewer homes would become a phase. The sales people will say this phase is almost sold out to psych out the buyers.
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i agree with this 100%.

IHS - maybe you can convince indie to take Akims 100K.  Hell, i would take Akims bet for 100K, but to me, 100K is not yet paltry.
 
qwerty said:
IndieDev said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
He meant Median. I will still bet on median price being lower regardless of percentages. To bet on exact percentages the bet will be to Akim's favor.
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I'm not betting on percentages either because it's fortune telling. If prices dropped 16% over two years for Cortana, that would indicate massive price weakness for the neighborhood. Yet on Akim's terms, he would "win" the bet which is why the purpose of the bet makes no sense. I'm all for taking Akim's $100,000, which would all go to charity anyway, but the bet has to make sense.
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yeah because predicting that the YOY median will not drop is not fortune telling - i think any time you try to predict the future that would qualify as fortune telling. if prices dropped 16% over the next two years you would win the bet, not akim.

Indie - by not taking the bet you are implying you dont believe cortona will drop 20%. Just come out and say it.
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I don't know if Cortana prices will drop by 20% in two years, or three, or five. I can guess that they will drop. If Akim wants to bet on those terms, I would accept that bet. That's not fortune telling, that's looking at a trend, and believing that trend will continue based on numerous fundamental factors related to a market, in professional terms it's called "modeling", not fortune telling.

Predicting what lotto numbers will pop up next Wednesday is fortune telling, just like akim's bet.
 
I plan to donate the money to either the Orangewood Children's home, or to a personal fund for a 24 foot boat. I'm not sure yet.
 
homer_simpson said:
We got some serious ballers here on TIC! 100K paltry?  :-\
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Hopefully, they?ll agree and reduce the size of the bet.
Both of these guys have families and a $100k is a lot of money and resources.
In this case, I?d hate to see either one lose such a large amount over something like this.
 
IndieDev said:
I plan to donate the money to either the Orangewood Children's home, or to a personal fund for a 24 foot boat. I'm not sure yet.
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You do know that you will have to go through coastal commission to get your private beach drenched Inorder to park your new boat.
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
IndieDev said:
I plan to donate the money to either the Orangewood Children's home, or to a personal fund for a 24 foot boat. I'm not sure yet.
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You do know that you will have to go through coastal commission to get your private beach drenched Inorder to park your new boat.
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That's true, but I know "some important people" who answer to Mr. Benjamin, especially if he brings friends.
 
Indie - i think majority of TI folks believe that Irvine has some more room to go down so its not a bear vs bull bet.  rather, its a bet against you constantly deriding everyone as foolish or stupid for buying TIC product today.  when you blast people for buying now, saying TIC product is horrible and overpriced, and you and IHS acting as if you are somehow helping people by showing them the light,  then you are inferring that the price drop is substantial.  for whatever reason, you are backtracking and saying you only are suggesting a trend with no number behind it.  if you only thought prices have a small drop like 2-5%, then you have no reason to blast folks as that is a trival amount when you consider the rent you are paying and picking a property you actually want vs having no choices and a better price.
 
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