Laguna Altura homes

[IndieDev]

when you blast people for buying now, saying TIC product is horrible and overpriced,

I've never personally blasted anyone for buying in Laguna Altura. AFAIK, no one has actually bought in LA that post here. I will always tell the truth about a neighborhood based on the data (i.e - people who bought in Woodbury circa 2005-2007 got raked by depreciation). It's not my fault if someone's feelings are hurt that they bought (or are going to buy) an over priced house, it's not my intention. If they had gotten a good deal on a home based on the current market, I'd also point that out.

Also just because I'm backing a trend doesn't mean that I think the price change will be trivial. It could be substantial. I'm just not going to bet money on the exact correction and time it will take place because it's impossible to determine.

Also, I disagree that 5% is a trivial drop (your number not mine). That's a substantial YOY drop for most of the plebs buying a Cortana model (not for me however).

 

[rkp]

while this thread is about LA, my point is that its TIC communities and products in general that you blast

you can disagree on 5% and i can respect that.  i bet most buyers today understand that it can drop 5%.  we are actively looking and i genuinely believe that woodbury new homes will settle around $325 per sq ft vs the $350 they are at now so i am even more bearing with a 7% drop.  that means the san marino 2 that i willing to buy today over $1M will be about $75K less in 1-2 years but i am ok with that.  we can discuss if that is sound or not but you blast people as if they dont know how to make an informed decision.

 

[waitin4ever]

On the topic of prices going down I'm sure prices will go down for beach front properties in CDM as well.
Not just for TIC properties or south county areas.

We all have seen in lansner's blog, many listings of beach front Mansions selling at millions lower than
purchase prices or original list prices.

But then this certain buyer in CDM doesn't care because when
you buy for millions 500K is a little change, maybe. (Disclaimer: Don't know how much
was spent on the CDM purchase by this buyer  or what the house looks like but I'm
just trying to make a point).

Indie - i think majority of TI folks believe that Irvine has some more room to go down so its not a bear vs bull bet.  rather, its a bet against you constantly deriding everyone as foolish or stupid for buying TIC product today.  when you blast people for buying now, saying TIC product is horrible and overpriced, and you and IHS acting as if you are somehow helping people by showing them the light,  then you are inferring that the price drop is substantial.  for whatever reason, you are backtracking and saying you only are suggesting a trend with no number behind it.  if you only thought prices have a small drop like 2-5%, then you have no reason to blast folks as that is a trival amount when you consider the rent you are paying and picking a property you actually want vs having no choices and a better price.

 

[traceimage]

This is the most amateurish counter-bet I have seen. At least propose a widely accepted source for medium price that can be mutually agreed upon and define how much lower. You can easily have statistical fluctuations of +/- 3%.

I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.

I don't know any sources for "medium price", nor would I use such a metric. Maybe I'm too amateur.

Considering you think going to small claims court is not about the money, but about the principal...let's go easy on someone who mixes up "median" and "medium."

 

[akim997]

Hmmm.. you are right, i did cause confusion and didnt throw out enough details.  (i was never a great negotiator).    i didnt mean to explicity point out Laguna/ Cortona, but it we are in the LA thread.  So i figured why not.  if you are serious about getting into specific details... i am game.  but my thoughts are you will back off from supporting (betting on) any large percentage drop.    you are now saying that whether its 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 20...  you just think the market is going down (DUH... why don't I bet on "the weather will change"). 

I'm also saying I am willing to put money behind what i think.  Here's what my claim is - for what I consider to be "attractive" properties (and obviously other buyers feel the same way) that we can negotiate and define (i.e. newer build since x date, x sq footage, in x community), there is sufficient demand out there where we will not see a substantial drop over the next couple of years (where your and IHS's posts seem to indicate the opposite).  Some of my evidence is PURELY anectodal (friends/ colleagues who are looking/buying, traffic at open houses, and homes I'm looking at that get sold).  What is substantial?  We can decide.  I'm not great at communicating, so you'll have to bear with me (maybe thats why you buy in CDM and I'm struggling to buy in Irvine) - but for instance... I see price stickyness in Northwood Pointe (non-Malibu pricing), Northpark, QH and even the Camelia tract in NWII based on overall demand of "nice" SFR product in Irvine.    There are NO shortages of homebuyers.  Further, there is such demand for product, that many potential purchasers are opting for "less favorable" products such as Santa Cruz in WB East (know some people who bought there).    I've realized that people aren't even that scientific or analytical about their purchases (who knows maybe they should be).  I've had several conversations with buyers which end up at they decide based on TOTAL MONTHLY COST of housing.  Many dual income professional couples (even with children) can (comfortably) afford between $3,000 and $4,200) per month in housing costs.  If you present these people with a nice option (that they don't have to pour a ton of money into), they are interested.  I CLAIM that the buyers out there (stupid or not) see value in Irvine, and will maintain overall pricing stability in Irvine for years to come (LEAVING OPEN that prices can fluctuate up and down YOY)...  maybe you can read my claim and come up with a counter bet?

But like others pointed out, I think you are backing off on your fundanomics and over-the-top statements about Irvine real estate.  I think both you and IHS both have a lot to offer, and if you both didnt act/type the way you do, you could be great resources for people and significant contributors to TI...

And by the way, I don't care if you know or not, but $100,000 is ALOT of money to me...    Even if I had more, it'd be ALOT of money to me.  But don't worry about me, I can take care of myself...

 

[IndieDev]

rkp, I can't control the way data makes you feel, or the way you react to bad news. That's an emotional response, which I understand is highly tied to home purchases, and I make no apologies for that. I will say if you think $325 a sqft in Woodbury is the bottom, then that is a pipe dream thought up in a world known as fantasy land. When it comes to data, and trends, models based on solid fundamentals are rarely wrong, and the data doesn't show Woodbury bottoming out anytime soon.

That being said, if you can take $75,000 (or more) on the chin, then that's up to you to decide. But in general it's a pretty dumb move for someone who fully expects to lose $75,000 or more on a purchase in 1-2 years to make said purchase. I'm not trying to "hurt your feelings" or "blast you", because everyone's situation is different, that's just the way the market is now. If your feelings are still hurt, I understand rkp, that's not my intention.

 

[IndieDev]

This is the most amateurish counter-bet I have seen. At least propose a widely accepted source for medium price that can be mutually agreed upon and define how much lower. You can easily have statistical fluctuations of +/- 3%.

I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.

I don't know any sources for "medium price", nor would I use such a metric. Maybe I'm too amateur.

Considering you think going to small claims court is not about the money, but about the principal...let's go easy on someone who mixes up "median" and "medium."

My iPhone 4GS made that auto-correction. It's a limitation of the technology.

 

[IndieDev]

But like others pointed out, I think you are backing off on your fundanomics and over-the-top statements about Irvine real estate.  I think both you and IHS both have a lot to offer, and if you both didnt act/type the way you do, you could be great resources for people and significant contributors to TI...

And by the way, I don't care if you know or not, but $100,000 is ALOT of money to me...    Even if I had more, it'd be ALOT of money to me.  But don't worry about me, I can take care of myself...

What? I never said Cortana prices would drop 20% in 24 months. That's a massive drop for any neighborhood over that period of time. So how am I backing off a claim I never made?

I still maintain Irvine prices will drop YOY, and think anyone who buys an over priced stucco box (like a Cortana) is going to get raked. In fact I'll make you a $100,000 bet on a Cortana model only. If a Cortana model pops up on the market and sells for OVER what it sold in 2012 in 2014+, meaning the first Cortana to sell after 2 years, then I pay you $100,000.

If however the first model to sell after 2 years is lower than what it sold for today, then you pay me $100,000.  I'll even give you a 3% hedge/buffer to sweeten the deal if you are scared that prices might drop .00000000002% only.

 

[akim997]

hey, I woulda bought in Cortona if i thought the price was right, so I do think that the community is overpriced (or at least I'm not willing to buy just yet)...  and I won't necessarily follow, but they did sell all units of next phase on Sunday (next phase opened Sunday).    They did not cut price, and did not offer incentives.  They currently only have 2 plan 1's available. 

IHS.  Like I said, I respect your opinion (overall).  I think you made a valid point.  HOW IS CORTONA SELLING THESE PHASES?  WELL, they are not offering any of the more expensive Plan 3's (with a horrible wedge island) in the new phase (ALL plan 2's and 1's).  So you are correct, that while there is no drop in price, there is an alteration in product offering.  It's a sneaky way of addressing the fact that people don't like the prices.  Regardless, they are selling pretty well right now.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Ahh... the infamous Indie hedge.

 

[akim997]

But like others pointed out, I think you are backing off on your fundanomics and over-the-top statements about Irvine real estate.  I think both you and IHS both have a lot to offer, and if you both didnt act/type the way you do, you could be great resources for people and significant contributors to TI...

And by the way, I don't care if you know or not, but $100,000 is ALOT of money to me...    Even if I had more, it'd be ALOT of money to me.  But don't worry about me, I can take care of myself...

What? I never said Cortana prices would drop 20% in 24 months. That's a massive drop for any neighborhood over that period of time. So how am I backing off a claim I never made?

I still maintain Irvine prices will drop YOY, and think anyone who buys an over priced stucco box (like a Cortana) is going to get raked. In fact I'll make you a $100,000 bet on a Cortana model only. If a Cortana model pops up on the market and sells for OVER what it sold in 2012 in 2014+, meaning the first Cortana to sell after 2 years, then I pay you $100,000.

If however the first model to sell after 2 years is lower than what it sold for today, then you pay me $100,000.  I'll even give you a 3% hedge/buffer to sweeten the deal if you are scared that prices might drop .00000000002% only.

i never said that you said it would drop that much.    interesting counter... let me think about it.    let me ask you this, are we just talking about gross sales price or do we need to find a way to calculate in incentives (builder credits, upgrades, etc....)

 

[IndieDev]

That bet is open to anyone in this thread.

I'll wait while this Irvine "bull party" becomes a bear cave.

 

[IndieDev]

But like others pointed out, I think you are backing off on your fundanomics and over-the-top statements about Irvine real estate.  I think both you and IHS both have a lot to offer, and if you both didnt act/type the way you do, you could be great resources for people and significant contributors to TI...

And by the way, I don't care if you know or not, but $100,000 is ALOT of money to me...    Even if I had more, it'd be ALOT of money to me.  But don't worry about me, I can take care of myself...

What? I never said Cortana prices would drop 20% in 24 months. That's a massive drop for any neighborhood over that period of time. So how am I backing off a claim I never made?

I still maintain Irvine prices will drop YOY, and think anyone who buys an over priced stucco box (like a Cortana) is going to get raked. In fact I'll make you a $100,000 bet on a Cortana model only. If a Cortana model pops up on the market and sells for OVER what it sold in 2012 in 2014+, meaning the first Cortana to sell after 2 years, then I pay you $100,000.

If however the first model to sell after 2 years is lower than what it sold for today, then you pay me $100,000.  I'll even give you a 3% hedge/buffer to sweeten the deal if you are scared that prices might drop .00000000002% only.

i never said that you said it would drop that much.    interesting counter... let me think about it.    let me ask you this, are we just talking about gross sales price or do we need to find a way to calculate in incentives (builder credits, upgrades, etc....)

Let's not complicate it. Sold price. 2014 and on, until the first resale model hits the streets and closes.

 

[traceimage]

This is the most amateurish counter-bet I have seen. At least propose a widely accepted source for medium price that can be mutually agreed upon and define how much lower. You can easily have statistical fluctuations of +/- 3%.

I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.

I don't know any sources for "medium price", nor would I use such a metric. Maybe I'm too amateur.

Considering you think going to small claims court is not about the money, but about the principal...let's go easy on someone who mixes up "median" and "medium."

My iPhone 4GS made that auto-correction. It's a limitation of the technology.

Right. Of course it did.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

This is a more reasonable bet proposal than betting on "medium" price without many specifics. 2 years from now a lot of things can change - dollar may be devalued to a point LA homes become even more attractive to FCBs so the price will be supported or the Fed can manage to get mortgage rate into the 3% range.  I think it is a coin flip.

But like others pointed out, I think you are backing off on your fundanomics and over-the-top statements about Irvine real estate.  I think both you and IHS both have a lot to offer, and if you both didnt act/type the way you do, you could be great resources for people and significant contributors to TI...

And by the way, I don't care if you know or not, but $100,000 is ALOT of money to me...    Even if I had more, it'd be ALOT of money to me.  But don't worry about me, I can take care of myself...

What? I never said Cortana prices would drop 20% in 24 months. That's a massive drop for any neighborhood over that period of time. So how am I backing off a claim I never made?

I still maintain Irvine prices will drop YOY, and think anyone who buys an over priced stucco box (like a Cortana) is going to get raked. In fact I'll make you a $100,000 bet on a Cortana model only. If a Cortana model pops up on the market and sells for OVER what it sold in 2012 in 2014+, meaning the first Cortana to sell after 2 years, then I pay you $100,000.

If however the first model to sell after 2 years is lower than what it sold for today, then you pay me $100,000.  I'll even give you a 3% hedge/buffer to sweeten the deal if you are scared that prices might drop .00000000002% only.

 

[IndieDev]

Exactly. Some rich guy, let's call him Mr. Lin, might come over with his dragon money and prove me wrong in 2014 so I can buy akim a $100,000 Porsche.

 

[IndieDev]

This is the most amateurish counter-bet I have seen. At least propose a widely accepted source for medium price that can be mutually agreed upon and define how much lower. You can easily have statistical fluctuations of +/- 3%.

I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.

I don't know any sources for "medium price", nor would I use such a metric. Maybe I'm too amateur.

Considering you think going to small claims court is not about the money, but about the principal...let's go easy on someone who mixes up "median" and "medium."

My iPhone 4GS made that auto-correction. It's a limitation of the technology.

Right. Of course it did.

Let's be honest trace, I make this thread exciting which is why you're here following me around.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@akim:

Not sure if agreeing to Indie's terms works to your original premise.

You've admitted that prices will probably drop in the next 2 years, so automatically you're in a bad position... I don't recall you taking a stance that a Cortona will go up in price by 2014... just that it won't drop by 20%.

Since Indie won't bet on a 20% drop, a more fair bet would be to decide a drop threshold you both can agree on as the over/under... much like Indie did with a few Turtle Rock homes last year.

 

[IndieDev]

The peanut gallery formulates a strategy. When you're at the top, everyone is gunning for you.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The peanut gallery...

The last time someone used that term... his position didn't turn out so well.