coronavirus
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While I agree there are a lot of unknowns and that we will need to proceed with unknowns, there is a lot of just bad info, hopeful thinking and political desperation at play. I do not take comfort in the press conferences. I have faith the Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci are attempting to do their best, but the guy at the top is an incompetent self serving narcissist. He has talked out his ass repeatedly and dangerously
Liberate where-ever tweets are reckless as the President. Ass clowns like Alex Jones, reckless.
Yes they can. The plan should include what are we doing when people are dumbasses. If someone want to protest they are welcome do so, if they piss on the sidewalk, we arrest them. If they aren't practicing social distancing, we need to beak up the protest for public health fine them, send them home. Yes, big bad totalitarian government.
I can't sh*t out on the curb. I can't dump toxic pollution straight into the street. I can't yell fire in a theater. I can't drink & drink. I can't legally blow down your street at a 120 mph.
And like clown boy in Santee, Companies that are open, should step up, when a dumbass makes a KKK hood for his face mask to go to the store, kick his backside out of the store.
The we can't deal with people being dumbasses is failure to plan. Some will and they need to addressed. And how they will be addressed needs to be decided before we wing it.
@Ken: I was a little confused by this statement. Are you saying that tracing will not help? I thought you were pro-tracing?
I ask because in Newsom's update today, they are talking quite a bit about tracing and tracking.
He said retailers, like those for clothing, books, music, toys, florists and sporting goods, would be allowed to offer curbside pick-up services if they institute guidelines set forth by the state. He said associated manufactures that support the retail industry would also be allowed to begin production.
His office later tweeted that the order does not include office spaces, restaurants and shopping malls.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/cal...esses-will-reopen-friday-with-conditions.html
I was pro-tracing when we still had under 10k cases.
The consensus among public health officials was, at that level, we could pull it off with revamping existing systems & redeploying resources using infra-structures already in place.
It has gotten exponentially harder since then because of the scale. In NYC, they are talking about building an almost unimaginably huge new city agency--equivalent in size to the FDNY--to trace and isolate everyone who has COVID or has been exposed.
They?ll need an army of contact tracers (aka ?disease detectives?) to do this work. They'll identify everyone who has had close, sustained contact with those infected, to warn them about possible risk and the need to quarantine.
The hardest part is what comes after.
Everyone with mild COVID (not serious enough to be in a hospital) will need an option of isolating in a hotel room, so as not to contaminate their family at home. NYC has already begun reserving 1000s of hotel rooms for this purpose.
Those whom contact tracers identify as potentially exposed will need to remain quarantined at home for 14 days, closely monitoring themselves for the emergence of symptoms.
All of those who are isolating and quarantining will need significant support from the City. Staff will need to check-in at least daily via phone to ensure that patients are well and are self-monitoring. They?ll need to scale up a large call center for this.
They need to ensure people who are quarantining don?t have to leave home for anything other than medical care. So how will they get food and medications? Do laundry? Take out the trash? Walk the dog? The city will need to provide or arrange for all of this.
When someone who is sick needs to relocate to a hotel, they shouldn?t take mass transit because of the risk that they could infect someone. So that means City needs to create a transportation system to move people around.
To pull all this off--the tracing, hoteling, transportation, call center, telemedicine, support services, the estimate is they will need a massive workforce, possibly as much as 15,000. And it's costly, the last proposal calls for over 1 billion dollar. There's also a timing issue - they need to do all that in about a month. It strikes me as near impossible.
I understand the cost of safely reopening our economy. The argument is that every dollar they spend on this will yield many times the equivalent in economic activity. But if it doesn't work, just imagine the backlash.
California isn't NYC so there's hope. We only have a fraction of NY's case #. But I don't know if it would work in CA without inter-state collaboration. We don't have physical barriers to keep people out.
Because people are worried about their rights, but not health.
After 9/11, people on TI did not jump up and down when the patriot act was passed. (Surveillance with no court order)
But tracing and tracking worked in other countries. So people are okay with wave 2. Actually we are still on wave 1.
Let say 1-3 months or maybe more of strict measures. Then say good bye to covid. But the way we are doing it in the US. This might be seasonal and/or last for years.
We are in agreement here. The short time window they have to pull this off compounds the problem too.
Although I'd argue geography isn't the only thing that's preventing New York from having Taiwan-like success.
We found out just recently that many municipalities in NY were running on healthcare software from the 90s. Forget contact tracing, they need to bring their systems into the 21st century first.
P.S. You can technically argue that New York is an island. It's certainly true for Manhattan and Staten Island. And Brooklyn and Queens are geographically part of Long Island. Just have to cross out the Bronx :
Experts are stumped why number of Covid 19 deaths are dramatically lower in Orange Couinty than other couinties in So Cal:
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/...onavirus-death-rate-lower-than-its-neighbors/
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/...onavirus-death-rate-lower-than-its-neighbors/
nosuchreality
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
While I agree there are a lot of unknowns and that we will need to proceed with unknowns, there is a lot of just bad info, hopeful thinking and political desperation at play. I do not take comfort in the press conferences. I have faith the Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci are attempting to do their best, but the guy at the top is an incompetent self serving narcissist. He has talked out his ass repeatedly and dangerously
Liberate where-ever tweets are reckless as the President. Ass clowns like Alex Jones, reckless.
Yes they can. The plan should include what are we doing when people are dumbasses. If someone want to protest they are welcome do so, if they piss on the sidewalk, we arrest them. If they aren't practicing social distancing, we need to beak up the protest for public health fine them, send them home. Yes, big bad totalitarian government.
I can't sh*t out on the curb. I can't dump toxic pollution straight into the street. I can't yell fire in a theater. I can't drink & drink. I can't legally blow down your street at a 120 mph.
And like clown boy in Santee, Companies that are open, should step up, when a dumbass makes a KKK hood for his face mask to go to the store, kick his backside out of the store.
The we can't deal with people being dumbasses is failure to plan. Some will and they need to addressed. And how they will be addressed needs to be decided before we wing it.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
@Ken: I was a little confused by this statement. Are you saying that tracing will not help? I thought you were pro-tracing?
I ask because in Newsom's update today, they are talking quite a bit about tracing and tracking.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Phase 2 by this Friday, locals/counties can accelerate sooner or open later based on their own situation.
qwerty and aquabliss must have visited Newsom over the weekend.
qwerty and aquabliss must have visited Newsom over the weekend.
irvinehomeowner said:Phase 2 by this Friday, locals/counties can accelerate sooner or open later based on their own situation.
qwerty and aquabliss must have visited Newsom over the weekend.
He said retailers, like those for clothing, books, music, toys, florists and sporting goods, would be allowed to offer curbside pick-up services if they institute guidelines set forth by the state. He said associated manufactures that support the retail industry would also be allowed to begin production.
His office later tweeted that the order does not include office spaces, restaurants and shopping malls.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/cal...esses-will-reopen-friday-with-conditions.html
irvinehomeowner said:
I was pro-tracing when we still had under 10k cases.
The consensus among public health officials was, at that level, we could pull it off with revamping existing systems & redeploying resources using infra-structures already in place.
It has gotten exponentially harder since then because of the scale. In NYC, they are talking about building an almost unimaginably huge new city agency--equivalent in size to the FDNY--to trace and isolate everyone who has COVID or has been exposed.
They?ll need an army of contact tracers (aka ?disease detectives?) to do this work. They'll identify everyone who has had close, sustained contact with those infected, to warn them about possible risk and the need to quarantine.
The hardest part is what comes after.
Everyone with mild COVID (not serious enough to be in a hospital) will need an option of isolating in a hotel room, so as not to contaminate their family at home. NYC has already begun reserving 1000s of hotel rooms for this purpose.
Those whom contact tracers identify as potentially exposed will need to remain quarantined at home for 14 days, closely monitoring themselves for the emergence of symptoms.
All of those who are isolating and quarantining will need significant support from the City. Staff will need to check-in at least daily via phone to ensure that patients are well and are self-monitoring. They?ll need to scale up a large call center for this.
They need to ensure people who are quarantining don?t have to leave home for anything other than medical care. So how will they get food and medications? Do laundry? Take out the trash? Walk the dog? The city will need to provide or arrange for all of this.
When someone who is sick needs to relocate to a hotel, they shouldn?t take mass transit because of the risk that they could infect someone. So that means City needs to create a transportation system to move people around.
To pull all this off--the tracing, hoteling, transportation, call center, telemedicine, support services, the estimate is they will need a massive workforce, possibly as much as 15,000. And it's costly, the last proposal calls for over 1 billion dollar. There's also a timing issue - they need to do all that in about a month. It strikes me as near impossible.
I understand the cost of safely reopening our economy. The argument is that every dollar they spend on this will yield many times the equivalent in economic activity. But if it doesn't work, just imagine the backlash.
California isn't NYC so there's hope. We only have a fraction of NY's case #. But I don't know if it would work in CA without inter-state collaboration. We don't have physical barriers to keep people out.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Yeah... I read that NY was looking at 100k people to work on tracing.
And I hear you on the borders thing, that's why I said it's very hard to enact what other countries are able to do because of the size and scale of the US and while each state can be compared to a country, geographically, it's just too difficult. Other than Hawaii and maybe Alaska, no one can be an island like Taiwan.
And I hear you on the borders thing, that's why I said it's very hard to enact what other countries are able to do because of the size and scale of the US and while each state can be compared to a country, geographically, it's just too difficult. Other than Hawaii and maybe Alaska, no one can be an island like Taiwan.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
LOL! Tracing might work on PAPER but the logistics would be an absolute nightmare. Might as well hire billions of workers to trace people's movements and contacts.
So I have to go out today. Haven't been out in weeks and I'm out of stuff to make things like masks and stuff for my etsy shop. There is only so much I can do with what I have left in supplies. I know other shops shut down due to lack of supplies cuz my biz has been thru the roof and I'm not even close to being cheapest. Can't even count how many people have asked if my shop is open and can I ship my items. Fortunately I stock up on supplies when I find stupid ridiculously low prices and have never relied on just in time.
First stop is cvs which has been open the entire time for a health care item that hubby really needs. Unfortunately they don't have my item.
Onto the post office so I can ship all my online orders. Not one worker has gotten sick there, even though they were very late on sneeze guards and social distancing. I was standing as far from the counters as possible and workers had no masks or gloves. Amazing... guess they don't live in a nursing home. LOL!
CVS is right near there, so I pop in and they got my item but of course the lines are never quick at cvs.
Have to go to the doctor's office after hitting up the mammo place. Both places I wait like always with the other patients for way too long.
I have to get some supplies for my etsy shop and thank goodness I can get thread that matches the fabric for my masks while I'm there. Thank the Lord they opened up Hobby Lobby and Michaels again cuz Walmart, Target and Amazon don't have my stuff in stock.
Hobby Lobby has some of my stuff, another long line.
There's an Albies right across the street, so I can quickly run in and get groceries. Been out of fresh produce and no more meat either.
Albies is out of some of my groceries...?. knew I should have been a damn horder!
Staples is next door. Won't hurt to get a ream of paper while I'm here, sold so much on etsy and ebay I'm down to 50 sheets of paper. Wonder if Ross has any of the onesies and baby bibs I need for my etsy shop baby gifts? Geesh? time flies guess I'll skip that and hope I don't sell any neutral gifts.
Michaels is 1/4 mile away on my way home. Praise God they got what Hobby Lobby didn't have. Maybe Smart and Final has some of my groceries. I can walk right there from Michaels.
Wonder how many people I came in contact with at two CVS's, Post Office, Mammo unit, Doctor's office, Hobby Lobby, Albies, Staples, Michaels, Smart and Final and all I did was get things I needed to run my online shop, doctor's visit, and groceries having not stepped foot in a grocery store for weeks.
And how many people those people come in contact with and then those people's contacts.
Maybe tomorrow I'll see if Costco got my pills in and get some gas and hit up the post office again.
Yeah that tracing thing is gonna work wonders.
So I have to go out today. Haven't been out in weeks and I'm out of stuff to make things like masks and stuff for my etsy shop. There is only so much I can do with what I have left in supplies. I know other shops shut down due to lack of supplies cuz my biz has been thru the roof and I'm not even close to being cheapest. Can't even count how many people have asked if my shop is open and can I ship my items. Fortunately I stock up on supplies when I find stupid ridiculously low prices and have never relied on just in time.
First stop is cvs which has been open the entire time for a health care item that hubby really needs. Unfortunately they don't have my item.
Onto the post office so I can ship all my online orders. Not one worker has gotten sick there, even though they were very late on sneeze guards and social distancing. I was standing as far from the counters as possible and workers had no masks or gloves. Amazing... guess they don't live in a nursing home. LOL!
CVS is right near there, so I pop in and they got my item but of course the lines are never quick at cvs.
Have to go to the doctor's office after hitting up the mammo place. Both places I wait like always with the other patients for way too long.
I have to get some supplies for my etsy shop and thank goodness I can get thread that matches the fabric for my masks while I'm there. Thank the Lord they opened up Hobby Lobby and Michaels again cuz Walmart, Target and Amazon don't have my stuff in stock.
Hobby Lobby has some of my stuff, another long line.
There's an Albies right across the street, so I can quickly run in and get groceries. Been out of fresh produce and no more meat either.
Albies is out of some of my groceries...?. knew I should have been a damn horder!
Staples is next door. Won't hurt to get a ream of paper while I'm here, sold so much on etsy and ebay I'm down to 50 sheets of paper. Wonder if Ross has any of the onesies and baby bibs I need for my etsy shop baby gifts? Geesh? time flies guess I'll skip that and hope I don't sell any neutral gifts.
Michaels is 1/4 mile away on my way home. Praise God they got what Hobby Lobby didn't have. Maybe Smart and Final has some of my groceries. I can walk right there from Michaels.
Wonder how many people I came in contact with at two CVS's, Post Office, Mammo unit, Doctor's office, Hobby Lobby, Albies, Staples, Michaels, Smart and Final and all I did was get things I needed to run my online shop, doctor's visit, and groceries having not stepped foot in a grocery store for weeks.
And how many people those people come in contact with and then those people's contacts.
Maybe tomorrow I'll see if Costco got my pills in and get some gas and hit up the post office again.
Yeah that tracing thing is gonna work wonders.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
I'll go out on a limb but tracking and tracing won't work here in the US so let's not try to rely on that method alone.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Looks like R2D just contact traced 237 people... qwerpence can blame a Tustin Legacy outbreak on her.
USCTrojanCPA said:
Because people are worried about their rights, but not health.
After 9/11, people on TI did not jump up and down when the patriot act was passed. (Surveillance with no court order)
But tracing and tracking worked in other countries. So people are okay with wave 2. Actually we are still on wave 1.
Let say 1-3 months or maybe more of strict measures. Then say good bye to covid. But the way we are doing it in the US. This might be seasonal and/or last for years.
Cornflakes
Active member
tracing and all is pretty invasive from a privacy standpoint. In China and other Asian countries, Govt. can just push an app on your phone or tag your phone mac id with your name and then just track at all times the geographic location of your phone. When you test positive, they go back and see what other phones came within your circle of influence in last x days...you get the idea.
We are a nation of cease and desist - even if I jacked you and not paying my debt, I can stop you from calling me.
We are a nation of cease and desist - even if I jacked you and not paying my debt, I can stop you from calling me.
irvinehomeowner said:Yeah... I read that NY was looking at 100k people to work on tracing.
And I hear you on the borders thing, that's why I said it's very hard to enact what other countries are able to do because of the size and scale of the US and while each state can be compared to a country, geographically, it's just too difficult. Other than Hawaii and maybe Alaska, no one can be an island like Taiwan.
We are in agreement here. The short time window they have to pull this off compounds the problem too.
Although I'd argue geography isn't the only thing that's preventing New York from having Taiwan-like success.
We found out just recently that many municipalities in NY were running on healthcare software from the 90s. Forget contact tracing, they need to bring their systems into the 21st century first.
P.S. You can technically argue that New York is an island. It's certainly true for Manhattan and Staten Island. And Brooklyn and Queens are geographically part of Long Island. Just have to cross out the Bronx :