coronavirus

[Kenkoko]

I thought from day one the quarantines were unfair. I know some you hate the flu comparison but the death rates are probably similar (too early to tell). If this something that was a guaranteed death sentence if you got it then I would probably agree. But given its flu like death rate I would not agree with a mandatory quarantine on general principle.

Nothing flu-like in the death rate unless massive lying across hundreds of participants.

New York City has 13,365 deaths.  At flu-like death rate of 30,000 deaths per 30 million infections, that would require 13.3 Million infected people in NYC. 

NYC has a population of 8.4 million.

Greater NYC metro has a population of 20 million.  They report 18,000 deaths.  Flu like if it has a 100% infection rate, versus the flu's 10% infection rate.

So at absolute best, it is running 1.5 death rate in NYC, that's assuming at 100% infection rate.

Well in fairness to my argument I also did some math in the math thread that showed that the death rates are much more similar than you guys want to acknowledge.

You are picking the absolute worst place in the world and using that to extrapolate against average numbers.

The antibody tests in the Santa Clara and LA are being used to argue that COVID fatality rate is closer to 0.1%- 0.2%, much like the flu.

That supposition is also contradicted by the New York antibody test results, which suggest that fatality rates there are closer to 0.5 or 1 percent.

The entire US will lift the lock-down before we hit herd immunity (60%-70% infection rate)

Therefore, we should expect a resurgence. Lifting the lock-down will lead to higher infection rate so looking at NYC numbers is due diligence.

I know you disagree but there are many people, including public health experts, who would argue that a low number doesn't mean that shutdowns were an over-reaction.

There are people who don't want the lock down to end until we are prepared to test, trace and isolate.

There are people who don't want the lock down to end now because re-opening now doesn't magically revive their lost job/career/business.

And there are privileged people like me who have the luxury to be more worried about grandma than money.

Re-opening would have more support if it comes with a coherent plan forward instead of the current "just wing it" approach.

 

[qwerty]

@kenkoko - Fyi I always appreciate the insight.

Just curious since you work in healthcare, and IACrenter as well, is there anything that we are doing or should be doing in the event we have a resurgence of the virus in the fall or as the lockdowns come to an end?

Is there additional capacity of icu rooms and equipment being built? It seems a lot of hospitals are kind of hurting. Or at least perhaps there are better contingency plans to convert existing rooms to icu rooms? Perhaps it?s a moot point if we don?t have enough doctors and nurses.

And what is the real verdict on ventilators. It seems like at first they needed as many as they could get, the. I?ve read they they generally caused more harm than good, that putting people on their stomachs was more effective. With all this garbage in the media I never know what to believe.

 

[nosuchreality]

This is a no-win scenario.

CNN is saying they govt didn?t close down early enough but then that would have meant we would have shut down earlier. Some people already feel it?s been too long or we should not have shut down at all.

Over 67k are dead... easy to hindsight this... or maybe not.

@NSR: Give me an example of a perfectly prepared and executed plan of this scale.

Don't need perfect.  Let's just see what happens, isn't a plan.  That's a gamble. 

We don't know why NYC turned into WTH.  Nor why it's suburbs, much like our OC, aren't fairing better than NYC.  Or the NJ suburbs.

That means we have no idea what keeps us from becoming the next NYC and suburbs. 

We need a plan to reopen.  One that has identified some things to help mitigate resurgence, that figured why NYC and suburbs went to sh*t.

A two week downtrend, great.  How fast does it kick back if it comes back?  How do we get in front of it?  And how to do manage those individuals that won't use good judgement. 

If we're concerned about economic damage now, suicides, etc. What if we need to go back to a 2nd round of shutdown?

Open it up, three weeks in I hope we're good, I hate to imagine if Memorial Day gets pulled out from under people cuz it's going back to sh*t.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is a no-win scenario.

CNN is saying they govt didn?t close down early enough but then that would have meant we would have shut down earlier. Some people already feel it?s been too long or we should not have shut down at all.

Over 67k are dead... easy to hindsight this... or maybe not.

@NSR: Give me an example of a perfectly prepared and executed plan of this scale.

Don't need perfect.  Let's just see what happens, isn't a plan.  That's a gamble. 

I guess we see it differently. There is still quite a few unknowns about Covid-19 like immunity so we have no choice but to take this type of approach.

I wouldn't call it gambling... it's using the data we have available and implementing measured approaches.

We don't know why NYC turned into WTH.  Nor why it's suburbs, much like our OC, aren't fairing better than NYC.  Or the NJ suburbs.

That means we have no idea what keeps us from becoming the next NYC and suburbs. 

I thought we did know why NY was worse off. They didn't take the shelter-in as seriously (or were unable to). Dense urban living, public transportation etc. Colder, less sunny weather is also a factor.

We need a plan to reopen.  One that has identified some things to help mitigate resurgence, that figured why NYC and suburbs went to sh*t.

I believe NYC is closing subways down every night to do clean and disinfect. So that's one thing they are addressing.

A two week downtrend, great.  How fast does it kick back if it comes back?  How do we get in front of it?  And how to do manage those individuals that won't use good judgement. 

If we're concerned about economic damage now, suicides, etc. What if we need to go back to a 2nd round of shutdown?

Open it up, three weeks in I hope we're good, I hate to imagine if Memorial Day gets pulled out from under people cuz it's going back to sh*t.

While you may not think anyone is planning for this, I don't see it that way. I watch the press conferences and listen to the radio daily. Maybe we just have a different perspective because I feel that everyone involved is trying to "plan" as much as they can.

The one thing officials can't do here is plan for people who won't listen. Let's use the OC beaches for an example... that was meant for the local residents who live close to the beach to be able to get out and do something other than Netflix. It's not Newport or HB's fault that people came from Mars and Venus just to look at the ocean.

That's why sometimes things have to be heavy handed because you can't rely on people to do the right thing. Look at the protests, no social distancing and no masks... how do you plan for that?

 

[eyephone]

An Oklahoma city has reversed an emergency proclamation requiring shoppers to wear face masks due to threats of violence.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/oklahoma-...sk-requirement-amid-threats/story?id=70481052


Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said Sunday that his order requiring state residents to wear face masks went ?too far.?

DeWine announced April 27 that face masks must be worn in stores ? but after some Ohioans found the order ?offensive,? he reversed himself the next day.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/dewine-ohio-face-masks-coronavirus-231175


Is this the new norm? I believe we all want to have the covid behind us. But threatening people because they do not want to wear mask is a joke. It just goes to show that the second wave is coming. Also, people feelings does not go over the well being of the society.

 

[qwerty]

Are the masks really effective? Or is it more the actual distancing? 

The cloth masks which most people are wearing don?t do anything at all. If they sneeze droplets are still getting through. Any big droplets will fall to the floor. Anything light enough to stay in the air will get caught in the airflow produced as you walk.

If the thing is as contagious as they say and it was airborne most of us would probably have gotten it?

The surgeons masks probably are more effective but don?t see as many of those around.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

See, how do you ensure a plan will work if part of the public won?t adhere to the rules like wearing a mask.

Part of what happens is on the public and not just the planners.

 

[Cornflakes]

@kenkoko - Fyi I always appreciate the insight.

Just curious since you work in healthcare, and IACrenter as well, is there anything that we are doing or should be doing in the event we have a resurgence of the virus in the fall or as the lockdowns come to an end?

Is there additional capacity of icu rooms and equipment being built? It seems a lot of hospitals are kind of hurting. Or at least perhaps there are better contingency plans to convert existing rooms to icu rooms? Perhaps it?s a moot point if we don?t have enough doctors and nurses.

And what is the real verdict on ventilators. It seems like at first they needed as many as they could get, the. I?ve read they they generally caused more harm than good, that putting people on their stomachs was more effective. With all this garbage in the media I never know what to believe.

Here is some good info.
https://www.usace.army.mil/Coronavirus/

Army corp of engineers have built 15k beds capacity so far ad the work is in progress, Most, if not all, of these won't be ICU level but can provide alternative care place for less severe cases.

There is link right below infographic...shows the pics of the places and type of facilities being put in place.

 

[eyephone]

See, how do you ensure a plan will work if part of the public won?t adhere to the rules like wearing a mask.

Part of what happens is on the public and not just the planners.

Enforce the law that are on the books to protect the general public. If not they are just security guards. Lol

 

[iacrenter]

@kenkoko - Fyi I always appreciate the insight.

Just curious since you work in healthcare, and IACrenter as well, is there anything that we are doing or should be doing in the event we have a resurgence of the virus in the fall or as the lockdowns come to an end?

Is there additional capacity of icu rooms and equipment being built? It seems a lot of hospitals are kind of hurting. Or at least perhaps there are better contingency plans to convert existing rooms to icu rooms? Perhaps it?s a moot point if we don?t have enough doctors and nurses.

And what is the real verdict on ventilators. It seems like at first they needed as many as they could get, the. I?ve read they they generally caused more harm than good, that putting people on their stomachs was more effective. With all this garbage in the media I never know what to believe.

Our hospital system is disbanding their emergency command center and starting to resume elective surgeries this week. We still maintain the capacity to ramp up ICU rooms and ventilators if needed. Our testing capacity has improved with both rapid and send out COVID testing but still no antibody testing yet. There is adequate PPE for all workers and we are still maintaining strict protocols for identifying and treating potential COVID patients.

My guess is that unless we see a large influx of COVID admissions, the state will dismantle/stand down some of their newly built hospitals and the USS Mercy will sail away soon. Hopefully they have a plan of keeping ventilators/ppe and surge plans on standby for the presumed 2nd wave in the fall.

 

[eyephone]

Yes they are effective.

Are the masks really effective? Or is it more the actual distancing? 

The cloth masks which most people are wearing don?t do anything at all. If they sneeze droplets are still getting through. Any big droplets will fall to the floor. Anything light enough to stay in the air will get caught in the airflow produced as you walk.

If the thing is as contagious as they say and it was airborne most of us would probably have gotten it?

The surgeons masks probably are more effective but don?t see as many of those around.

 

[eyephone]

See, how do you ensure a plan will work if part of the public won?t adhere to the rules like wearing a mask.

Part of what happens is on the public and not just the planners.

Enforce the law that are on the books to protect the general public. If not they are just security guards. Lol

I mean if they do not want to do their job. Maybe we should outsource some police jobs to private security.

#savecitiesmoney

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@kenkoko:

AI helping find treatments:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/technology/coronavirus-treatment-benevolentai-baricitinib.html

In late January, researchers at BenevolentAI, an artificial intelligence start-up in central London, turned their attention to the coronavirus.

Within two days, using technologies that can scour scientific literature related to the virus, they pinpointed a possible treatment with speed that surprised both the company that makes the drug and many doctors who had spent years exploring its effect on other viruses.

Called baricitinib, the drug was designed to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Though many questions hang over its potential use as a coronavirus treatment, it will soon be tested in an accelerated clinical trial with the National Institutes of Health. It is also being studied in Canada, Italy and other countries.

The specialists at BenevolentAI are among many A.I. researchers and data scientists around the world who have turned their attention to the coronavirus, hoping they can accelerate efforts to understand how it is spreading, treat people who have it and find a vaccine.

 

[qwerty]

So this says the benefit of a cloth face mask is weak and inconsistent.
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...inst-the-coronavirus-and-should-you-wear-one/

I read a couple of other stories and the cloth masks don?t seem to offer a whole lot of benefit.

We use the regular surgeons mask, but if I didn?t have access to those I would not bother with a cloth/home made mask.

 

[eyephone]

See, how do you ensure a plan will work if part of the public won%u2019t adhere to the rules like wearing a mask.

Part of what happens is on the public and not just the planners.

Enforce the law that are on the books to protect the general public. If not they are just security guards. Lol

Turn in your badge if you do not want to enforce the law. There are many hungry and eager people that want to be a cop.
Also, save the city money for newer cop.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So this says the benefit of a cloth face mask is weak and inconsistent.
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...inst-the-coronavirus-and-should-you-wear-one/

I read a couple of other stories and the cloth masks don?t seem to offer a whole lot of benefit.

We use the regular surgeons mask, but if I didn?t have access to those I would not bother with a cloth/home made mask.

So you're referencing a 2015 study with frontline medical workers vs public social contact with distancing?

C'mon man, obviously in a high viral load environment like a hospital, cloth masks will not measure up to N95 masks but we are talking about a grocery store or getting takeout at an eatery.

The point of a mask is it not just to protect you but also to protect others from you. It adds additional layers of protection on top of social distancing.

Tell me what you think is more protection, standing 6 feet from someone and they sneeze at you and you are both not wearing masks... or you are both wearing masks?

And what about those times when people are closer than 6 feet, that's where a mask will have some help.

I know you don't want to deprive the world of your handsome smile but until we know more, we should do all we can.

Do you know anyone who has had Covid? You always talk about deaths being negligible compared to the economic cost and feel bad for the people who lost their jobs, but what about the people who died and their families? If I get it, come and visit me and let's see if you'll wear a mask or not.

 

[qwerty]

Well I don?t understand the concept of they don?t protect me from others but somehow they are supposed to protect them from me? That doesn?t make any sense.

A cousin lived in NYC and she got covid. She recovered with no issues, didn?t have to go to the ER. Other than that I don?t know anyone who has it.

And IHO if you get covid and end up in the hospital, I?ll swing by and say hi from the other side of the door window

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Maybe a visual would help, this is a video simulation of 3 sneezing scenarios:

Top: No mask
Middle: Sneeze into elbow
Bottom: Low grade fabric mask

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVnDIzebhAQ

Since YouTube links don't work, copy and paste.

Well I don?t understand the concept of they don?t protect me from others but somehow they are supposed to protect them from me? That doesn?t make any sense.

I didn't say "don't protect you" I said "*just* don't protect you".

 

[eyephone]

I do not know if your joking or not. I think a 5 year could understand the benefit of a mask concept.
Also, since you do not think the covid is real. Why do you wear a surgical mask?

Well I don?t understand the concept of they don?t protect me from others but somehow they are supposed to protect them from me? That doesn?t make any sense.

A cousin lived in NYC and she got covid. She recovered with no issues, didn?t have to go to the ER. Other than that I don?t know anyone who has it.

And IHO if you get covid and end up in the hospital, I?ll swing by and say hi from the other side of the door window

 

[Kenkoko]

@kenkoko - Fyi I always appreciate the insight.

Just curious since you work in healthcare, and IACrenter as well, is there anything that we are doing or should be doing in the event we have a resurgence of the virus in the fall or as the lockdowns come to an end?

Is there additional capacity of icu rooms and equipment being built? It seems a lot of hospitals are kind of hurting. Or at least perhaps there are better contingency plans to convert existing rooms to icu rooms? Perhaps it?s a moot point if we don?t have enough doctors and nurses.

And what is the real verdict on ventilators. It seems like at first they needed as many as they could get, the. I?ve read they they generally caused more harm than good, that putting people on their stomachs was more effective. With all this garbage in the media I never know what to believe.

@Qwerty - Glad I'm able to provide some value 

We've learned a lot more about COVID-19 and the protocol to use ventilators with Covid patients has changed quite a bit.

What you're talking about is called proning. And yes, doctors have found that some patients can quickly returned to normal levels with proning. Proning does not seem to work as well in older patients, but has proven to be a valuable tool.

Putting patients on ventilators requires intubation. Intubated patients with Covid are doing very poorly (80% do not make it in NY), and while this may be the disease and not the mechanical ventilation, many doctors now believe that intubation is to be avoided until unequivocally required.

Mechanical ventilators lead to other serious complications too. So, instead of quickly sedating people who had shockingly low levels of oxygen and then putting them on mechanical ventilators, many doctors are now keeping patients conscious and trying different things first. They've found that many patients can continue to breathe on their own, thus reducing the need for ventilators.