coronavirus

[eyephone]

The tracing programs sound good in theory but from a practical perspective are way to difficult to execute so not a fan of it in general. 

I thought from day one the quarantines were unfair. I know some you hate the flu comparison but the death rates are probably similar (too early to tell). If this something that was a guaranteed death sentence if you got it then I would probably agree. But given its flu like death rate I would not agree with a mandatory quarantine on general principle.

I have a white collar job, so I would be able to a quarantine at home with out it impacting my livelihood at all. I think it%u2019s unfair to folks who can%u2019t work remotely and expect them to lose wages and it%u2019s also unfair to expect their employer to pay them while in quarantine. Whatever local government is imposing the quarantine should pay them 100% of their wages not some $50/day bullshit or whatever amount that is lower than their wages. And it should come out of the local governments current budget, which is not going to happen. You know they would want the general public to pay for that through some sort of tax increase of some sort.

So it all comes down to the cost benefit. Which will come down to your own personal sensibilities, just like anything else. To me the cost benefit for the shutdown, tracing, etc are not worth it. I don%u2019t know that there has been anything more disruptive in my lifetime than this virus and to me it has really been baffling. I think we have had enough experience with other viruses and other corona viruses to hypothesis that this virus was not going to kill millions and millions of people if we just let it run it%u2019s course.

Sweden is still doing well and Brazil who gets criticized for not doing enough in response to covid seems to have much better results than we do and they have about 2/3 of our population. Brazil has 87,000 cases and 6,000 deaths. Their population is 210 million. The US has 1.16 million cases and 67k deaths.

The more this this shutdown and lack of return to normalcy drags out the less understandable it becomes given that we have some other examples to work with (Sweden and Brazil) and see that their outcomes are not the apocalypse government leaders and certain media would want you to believe.

The shutdown was meant to flatten the curve and we have for the most part. The goal post does seem to be moving. First it was flatten the curve, now it%u2019s flatten the curve but meet these 5 criteria for 14 days, etc.

Given the economic impact, death rates and what seems to be goal post moving it%u2019s easy to see why people are getting upset and protesting. I think it is clear, or it should be, covid is not going away and tracing etc will not get rid of it. So why continue with the charade?

Are you sure about Brazil?

Ny Post: Brazil emerges as next potential coronavirus hotspot

Brazil is emerging as potentially the next big hot spot for the coronavirus amid President Jair Bolsonaro%u2019s insistence that it is just a little flu and that there is no need for the sharp restrictions that have slowed the infection%u2019s spread in Europe and the US.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/brazil-is-next-big-hot-spot-for-coronavirus/

I think we know it is more than a little flu.

Sky news article: Coronavirus: Brazil emerges as next virus hotspot - as president remains in denial

Mr Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the severity of the disease and insists there is no need for sharp restrictions that have been used to slow the spread in Europe and the US.

Medical officials in Rio de Janeiro and at least four other major cities have warned that their hospital systems are on the verge of collapse or are too busy to take any more patients.

Neighbouring Argentina has taken a serious stance on the pandemic, banning all commercial flights until September in one of the toughest coronavirus travel bans in the world.

Other South American countries including Ecuador and Peru have banned all commercial flights, but none have extended their timeline as far out as Argentina. Brazil has also imposed travel restrictions but not outright bans.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...tspot-as-president-remains-in-denial-11979782

Goal posts? The fake financial advisor that it was just a cough and Russia is doing okay. But when you look up Russia covid. They are not having a good time. Sorry I am not the one spreading fake news and giving misleading information.

 

[eyephone]

NBC Article: protest in Illinois

Dennis Kosuth, a registered nurse, captured the photo of a woman wearing an American flag mask and holding a sign in German that read "Arbeit macht frei," or "Work will set you free," during a protest Friday at the Thompson Center
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...n-holding-nazi-sign-illinois-protest-n1198961

Protest in Michigan
Lansing Demonstrators Protest Whitmer With Hitler Signs
https://thejewishnews.com/2020/04/16/lansing-demonstrators-protest-whitmer-with-hitler-signs/

Protesting or promoting a message?

 

[qwerty]

All I can tell you about Brazil is is the science and data reported by Johns Hopkins as of yesterday. They have dealt with this just about as long as we have and those are the results.

 

[nosuchreality]

I thought from day one the quarantines were unfair. I know some you hate the flu comparison but the death rates are probably similar (too early to tell). If this something that was a guaranteed death sentence if you got it then I would probably agree. But given its flu like death rate I would not agree with a mandatory quarantine on general principle.

Nothing flu-like in the death rate unless massive lying across hundreds of participants.

New York City has 13,365 deaths.  At flu-like death rate of 30,000 deaths per 30 million infections, that would require 13.3 Million infected people in NYC. 

NYC has a population of 8.4 million.

Greater NYC metro has a population of 20 million.  They report 18,000 deaths.  Flu like if it has a 100% infection rate, versus the flu's 10% infection rate.

So at absolute best, it is running 1.5 death rate in NYC, that's assuming at 100% infection rate.

 

[Kenkoko]

I think the tracing +quarantine programs won't work either. The horse has left the barn. The scale in NYC is too massive for mandatory quarantine. Not just the cost, we lack the system and structure to do it right. I am skeptical about the voluntary quarantine program as well. We don't have the public will / buy-in for it to work.

I know many healthcare professionals and public health experts are skeptical of this as well. This isn't them vs. normal people.

But this proposal is gaining steam because of something Nosuchreality pin-pointed earlier - " the re-opening people have no plan"

In the midst of 50 million people unemployed or under-employed, people want the gov to be hiring and training millions to do tracking/tracing, caring/supporting at risk populations and sanitation work.

Many people simply don't believe re-opening would magically solve their problems. I own a vacation rental that I just converted into a regular rental. It was tough news for my property manager and his support staff. But they don't support re-opening either. Re-opening does nothing for them. They fear re-opening too early would further damage the industry.

I think re-opening would be a much more appealing idea to many if it comes with a coherent plan forward. Not just pretending re-opening will work just because. I think many people recognized that a lot of these lost jobs are not coming back ever.

@Qwerty, NSR has a great point. NYC is living proof that it isn't flu like. Rest of your argument makes a lot of sense tho 

 

[eyephone]

All I can tell you about Brazil is is the science and data reported by Johns Hopkins as of yesterday. They have dealt with this just about as long as we have and those are the results.

Brazil's surge in coronavirus cases, and its open borders, alarms neighboring countries
The country?s borders remain open, there are virtually no quarantines or curfews and President Bolsonaro continues to scoff at the seriousness of the disease.

In Paraguay, soldiers enforcing anti-virus measures have dug a shallow trench alongside the first 800 feet (244 meters) of the main road entering the city of Pedro Juan Caballero from the neighboring Brazilian city of Punta Por?, to prevent people from walking along the road from Brazil and disappearing into the surrounding city.

Argentine officials say they are particularly worried about truck traffic from Brazil, their top trading partner. In provinces bordering Brazil, Argentina is working to set up secure corridors where Brazilian drivers can access bathrooms, get food and unload products without ever coming into contact with Argentines.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino...s-its-open-borders-alarm-neighboring-n1196951

Sounds like a problem no matter how you slice it and dice it.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Not sure what "the re-opening people have no plan" means.

I thought the Fed and each of the states laid out a multi-phase plan on how to re-open. Counties and cities have their directives too.

Businesses themselves are creating their own plans on based on what city/county/state mandates allow and everyone is looking at the areas that are re-opening first.

Just this last week, many restaurants/businesses have re-opened and more will do so in the coming weeks as long as we don't have a huge spike in spread/deaths. And even if so, businesses will be able to stay open as long as they adhere to protocols that keep everyone safe.

It's not just about beaches.

 

[Kenkoko]

@IHO

NSR was talking about plans for rebuild going forward after re-opening.

JIMHO, we need to prepare a lot of companies for GM bankruptcy type deals.  Or be prepared for many, many companies to BK.

The fighting chance of reopening isn't a fighting chance.  Just look at the the lack of ratio of people on TI indicating they will not be out buying.  The last 45 days of interruption, isn't recession or slow down, it isn't 5%, 10% drop in revenues, for many it is 80%, 90%,or 100% loss of revenues.  It isn't regional disaster affecting a city, it's national. 

Reopening, IMHO, is still denial or bargaining phase of grief over what has happened.  The local news had a coffee shop on the other day saying how they needed the small business bailout money.  How even though they're open for take out or whatever it's a couple hundred dollars are day, not enough to pay the people working let alone the rent, utilities or their suppliers.  Reopening isn't going to refill the coffee house.  Reopening isn't going to put JWA flights back to being full.

A month, if everything goes perfectly, if no hotspots occur, maybe, then people will trickle in more still depressed though, but if hotspots in Georgia start showing up, or other cities start showing up, it'l go down from the low point it's at.

The financial markets will crater then.

We need a plan for how we will bridge the business through, how we will remain whole with the big business like the airlines, auto makers, banks, Reits, PEs how they will survive with business after business not paying rent.  Can they close half of their retail centers?  What will be the terms, like the old GM bankruptcy, for the airlines threatening mass layoffs?

Lots to think about, lots to potentially try.  JIMHO, re-opening without a plan beyond reopening and just given them a fighting chance is like throwing your average sedentary mid-40s Irvine office worker into the octagon with the MMA champ after your corner showed him his wife banging the worker.

And yes our current half effort on the shutdown bailout isn't working either.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Also, while we may have overshot, I do think the US is in the middle of how we are handling this.

While qwerbeaches wishes we can be like Sweden or Brazil, at least we are not like India where you couldn't leave your home and if you were out, the police would physically force you back inside... and starting May 4, all workers have to register for their Covid tracing app... it's not optional.

I think it's all relative... if this was TalkBrooklyn I'm sure the conversation would be different.

 

[qwerty]

All I can tell you about Brazil is is the science and data reported by Johns Hopkins as of yesterday. They have dealt with this just about as long as we have and those are the results.

Brazil's surge in coronavirus cases, and its open borders, alarms neighboring countries
The country?s borders remain open, there are virtually no quarantines or curfews and President Bolsonaro continues to scoff at the seriousness of the disease.

In Paraguay, soldiers enforcing anti-virus measures have dug a shallow trench alongside the first 800 feet (244 meters) of the main road entering the city of Pedro Juan Caballero from the neighboring Brazilian city of Punta Por?, to prevent people from walking along the road from Brazil and disappearing into the surrounding city.

Argentine officials say they are particularly worried about truck traffic from Brazil, their top trading partner. In provinces bordering Brazil, Argentina is working to set up secure corridors where Brazilian drivers can access bathrooms, get food and unload products without ever coming into contact with Argentines.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino...s-its-open-borders-alarm-neighboring-n1196951

Sounds like a problem no matter how you slice it and dice it.

Show me numbers that indicate Brazil has more of a problem than we do while doing less? Don?t argue with science and data. Aren?t your fact man?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@IHO

NSR was talking about plans for rebuild going forward after re-opening.

Rebuilding is different from re-opening. We have to re-open first, see how it goes and then figure out the best path to rebuild.

This is something that's never happened before in our lifetimes so we can't expect everyone to have the correct answers immediately. It's going to take time, refactoring and adjustment.

But I'm an optimist. I think science, medicine, and technology will provide solutions and creative people will figure out how to bounce back faster than we expect.

Remember when 9/11 happened? Everyone thought no one would ever fly again. How about when the stock market crashed?

We just have to be patient.

Maybe AI will restore the economy.

 

[Kenkoko]

@IHO

NSR was talking about plans for rebuild going forward after re-opening.

Rebuilding is different from re-opening. We have to re-open first, see how it goes and then figure out the best path to rebuild.

This is something that's never happened before in our lifetimes so we can't expect everyone to have the correct answers immediately. It's going to take time, refactoring and adjustment.

But I'm an optimist. I think science, medicine, and technology will provide solutions and creative people will figure out how to bounce back faster than we expect.

Remember when 9/11 happened? Everyone thought no one would ever fly again. How about when the stock market crashed?

We just have to be patient.

Maybe AI will restore the economy.

Was talking about why re-opening is facing massive resistance (people don't like the "just wing it" style of re-opening) and also why a massive seemingly doomed to fail plan (NYC tracing +quarantine) is gaining traction.

Not talking about what will work best. Would a massive Marshal Plan work? I don't know.

But having a plan and a vision will get more people to support re-opening.

p.s AI and automation will speed up as a result of COVID.

 

[eyephone]

All I can tell you about Brazil is is the science and data reported by Johns Hopkins as of yesterday. They have dealt with this just about as long as we have and those are the results.

Brazil's surge in coronavirus cases, and its open borders, alarms neighboring countries
The country?s borders remain open, there are virtually no quarantines or curfews and President Bolsonaro continues to scoff at the seriousness of the disease.

In Paraguay, soldiers enforcing anti-virus measures have dug a shallow trench alongside the first 800 feet (244 meters) of the main road entering the city of Pedro Juan Caballero from the neighboring Brazilian city of Punta Por?, to prevent people from walking along the road from Brazil and disappearing into the surrounding city.

Argentine officials say they are particularly worried about truck traffic from Brazil, their top trading partner. In provinces bordering Brazil, Argentina is working to set up secure corridors where Brazilian drivers can access bathrooms, get food and unload products without ever coming into contact with Argentines.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino...s-its-open-borders-alarm-neighboring-n1196951

Sounds like a problem no matter how you slice it and dice it.

Show me numbers that indicate Brazil has more of a problem than we do while doing less? Don?t argue with science and data. Aren?t your fact man?

Coronavirus ravaged Brazil has world?s highest infection rate as disease rips through slums and fills mass graves

A hospital doctor told Reuters the death toll was higher than the official figures because many impoverished victims are not included in statistics.


And researchers at Imperial College London estimate Brazil's transmission rate this week will have been the highest in the world.

The way things are going many scientists point to Latin America's largest country as the next deadly hotspot for COVID-19.

Brought into the country by Brazil?s elite holidaying in Europe, coronavirus is now ravaging the country's poor.

It has been ripping through tightly-packed neighborhoods where the disease is harder to control.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/767962...ighest-infection-rate-rips-slums-mass-graves/

The data about Brazil is probably a lot higher.

 

[nosuchreality]

Reopen isn't a plan.

Example #1, the beach fiasco last weekend.  While there's plenty of carefully framed BS in the photos from CNN and OCRegister, the beach was a clusterfuck this past weekend. 

That's NOT a plan.  That's figuring it out as they go and they clearly f-d it.

 

[eyephone]

Reopen isn't a plan.

Example #1, the beach fiasco last weekend.  While there's plenty of carefully framed BS in the photos from CNN and OCRegister, the beach was a clusterfuck this past weekend. 

That's NOT a plan.  That's figuring it out as they go and they clearly f-d it.

Fyi - There is video of the people on the beach.
The fake photo is a conspiracy.

My thoughts are if they want to expose them self be my guest.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Reopen isn't a plan.

Example #1, the beach fiasco last weekend.  While there's plenty of carefully framed BS in the photos from CNN and OCRegister, the beach was a clusterfuck this past weekend. 

That's NOT a plan.  That's figuring it out as they go and they clearly f-d it.

I guess I'm not sure what you are looking for here.

Uncharted territory so it's not going to be perfect.

 

[nosuchreality]

Reopen isn't a plan.

Example #1, the beach fiasco last weekend.  While there's plenty of carefully framed BS in the photos from CNN and OCRegister, the beach was a clusterfuck this past weekend. 

That's NOT a plan.  That's figuring it out as they go and they clearly f-d it.

I guess I'm not sure what you are looking for here.

Uncharted territory so it's not going to be perfect.

A plan that isn't inept and clusterfucked from the start.  The not going perfect defense doesn't fly because standard corporate defense of a bad plan.

 

[qwerty]

I thought from day one the quarantines were unfair. I know some you hate the flu comparison but the death rates are probably similar (too early to tell). If this something that was a guaranteed death sentence if you got it then I would probably agree. But given its flu like death rate I would not agree with a mandatory quarantine on general principle.

Nothing flu-like in the death rate unless massive lying across hundreds of participants.

New York City has 13,365 deaths.  At flu-like death rate of 30,000 deaths per 30 million infections, that would require 13.3 Million infected people in NYC. 

NYC has a population of 8.4 million.

Greater NYC metro has a population of 20 million.  They report 18,000 deaths.  Flu like if it has a 100% infection rate, versus the flu's 10% infection rate.

So at absolute best, it is running 1.5 death rate in NYC, that's assuming at 100% infection rate.

Well in fairness to my argument I also did some math in the math thread that showed that the death rates are much more similar than you guys want to acknowledge.

You are picking the absolute worst place in the world and using that to extrapolate against average numbers.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I thought from day one the quarantines were unfair. I know some you hate the flu comparison but the death rates are probably similar (too early to tell). If this something that was a guaranteed death sentence if you got it then I would probably agree. But given its flu like death rate I would not agree with a mandatory quarantine on general principle.

Nothing flu-like in the death rate unless massive lying across hundreds of participants.

New York City has 13,365 deaths.  At flu-like death rate of 30,000 deaths per 30 million infections, that would require 13.3 Million infected people in NYC. 

NYC has a population of 8.4 million.

Greater NYC metro has a population of 20 million.  They report 18,000 deaths.  Flu like if it has a 100% infection rate, versus the flu's 10% infection rate.

So at absolute best, it is running 1.5 death rate in NYC, that's assuming at 100% infection rate.

Well in fairness to my argument I also did some math in the math thread that showed that the death rates are much more similar than you guys want to acknowledge.

You are picking the absolute worst place in the world and using that to extrapolate against average numbers.

Isn?t the low number of deaths in OC and CA attributes to forward early planning/lock down. So good planning gives better result and it showed.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is a no-win scenario.

CNN is saying they govt didn?t close down early enough but then that would have meant we would have shut down earlier. Some people already feel it?s been too long or we should not have shut down at all.

Over 67k are dead... easy to hindsight this... or maybe not.

@NSR: Give me an example of a perfectly prepared and executed plan of this scale.