coronavirus

[bones]

The big one is the socio-economic advantage ones are looking at their kids doing 1 to 1.5 hours of school and keeping pace or advancing faster and wondering WTH?  Missing core pieces such as collaboration, but reading,  writing, math, advancing. 

Not saying teachers don't work hard, but the amount of filler due to 35-40 kids per class is very exposed.

Agree on missing the social and collaborative pieces.  But in general, if you have the time/means/resources, homeschooling is very effective.  Nothing beats 1 to 1 learning.  I've stopped doing "assigned" "busy" school work and instead signed my kids up for specialized virtual (small group) classes that are topic/subject specific.  These have been really effective and have held my kids' attention/interest.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is worth a watch if you have the time.  This Dr. is simply using facts and numbers:https://www.facebook.com/693900625/posts/10163531305645626/

If that's the Kern County video, that what I was referring to in my previous post about post-distancing math.

It's not that straightforward.

Link doesn't work anymore, but if that's the video of the 2 doctors in Bakersfield (Kern County), their assessment has been "condemned by health officials":
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/health/california-doctors-coronavirus-claims/index.html

(CNN)A news conference by two California doctors that downplayed the threat of the coronavirus and made dubious claims that the disease had already spread widely, and therefore was not dangerous, struck a chord with those itching for states to ease stay-at-home orders -- but is being condemned by public health officials and experts.

A widely shared local television video of last week's news conference, which was posted on YouTube, reached more than 5 million views and was amplified by Elon Musk and Fox News, where Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi appeared on primetime shows two nights in a row.

The video has since been taken down by YouTube for violating the platform's policy on misinformation, a YouTube spokesperson said.

The doctors, who are not epidemiologists and who own and operate urgent care centers in the Bakersfield area, held the news conference on April 22 to share their conclusions about the results of 5,213 coronavirus tests at their clinics, extrapolating their findings to the California population as a whole.

"Do we need to still shelter in place? Our answer is emphatically no. Do we need businesses to be shut down? Emphatically no. Do we need to test them and get them back to work? Yes, we do," Erickson said at the news conference.

They tried to use Sweden as an example but the reality didn't track:

On Monday evening, the pair appeared on Laura Ingraham's prime-time Fox News show, where Erickson told the host he has looked to Sweden, where restrictions imposed to fight the coronavirus have been far less sweeping than those implemented by the country's neighbors.

In Sweden, the death rate has now risen significantly higher than many other countries in Europe, reaching more than 22 per 100,000 people, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University. Meanwhile, Denmark has recorded just over seven deaths per 100,000 people, and both Norway and Finland less than four.

Noymer, the epidemiologist, said the US enacting a policy like Sweden's would result in a public health disaster.

"If we followed what Sweden is doing, we would have the worst results in terms of cases in the Western Hemisphere," he said.

Here is a link to see that Sweden is actually doing worse than its neighbors who enacted stricter protocols:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

Since Solvang is like Denmark, maybe Bakersfield wants to be Sweden.

 

[blueberryeast]

School starting in July is normal for year round schools such as Woodbury. If the virus is really seasonal that might be better. Have the 3 week fall break when the next wave comes in fall. Schools have started to reopen in some European countries, let?s see how that will turn out.

Effort wise, online school seems less than half of a normal school day. Does that mean the kids learn less or do they waste less time? Hard to tell right now.

Are they shifting the entire school year to the right?  Seems like you made it this far why not just see it through and not open schools until September when they?re back in session.

I agree with NSR though.  1 kid in the school gets it, they all have it by Friday.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Of the deaths in OC

10% are 45-44
7% are 35-44
5% are 25-34

No deaths under the age of 24.

So 78% of deaths are in those over 55. The science and data, as the governors like to say, show the higher risk of death is primarily in those over 55. So we should reopen the economy, continue social distancing, wear masks and gloves, and those over 55 can stay at home of they so choose.

Using local science and data, Orange County should be opening up tomorrow.

Updated groups by age are on the website now.

As of today 4/29:
Total cases 2252
Total deaths 44

85+ years: 91 cases (4%); 7 deaths (16%)
75-84 years: 150 cases (7%); 15 deaths (34%)
65-74 years: 264 cases (11%); 5 deaths (11%)

Total cases aged 75+: 241 cases (10.7%); 22 deaths (50%)

Expanding the totals to include 65-74 year olds:
Total cases aged 65+: 505 cases (22.4%); 27 deaths (61.4%)

So...?? we know that there are some nursing homes with a LOT of cases. HB has a nursing home at Newland and Beach that suddenly dumped a lot of cases into the data. Anaheim and Santa Ana also have a LOT of nursing homes.

HALF the deaths in the OC were in the 74+ age group. How many of those were NOT from nursing home patients? Doubt many. How many of the cases in other age groups are associated from visiting or caring for patients in those nursing homes? I bet a lot.

So...?? 22 "other deaths" including 65-74 year olds out of nearly 3.25 MILLION OC population comes out to.... less than one in a 100,000.

And for this we have to stay home, cover our faces when we go out, some of us can't work, can't pay rent, don't collect rent from renters, etc.

In the beginning the government threw us in our houses with one of the two ways they could (fear or force). I know I was afraid.... I thought if I get this and of course I will cuz 25.6 MILLION will get it in California even if we draw out the curve, I'll die. That's it. I'll die thru no fault of my own but I have some "issues" that put me in the high risk group that were caused by chemo years ago. That fear was strengthened by NY's call for 30-40K vents and if they don't get them someone has to PICK the 26K that WILL DIE!. One of my cousins lives in Lomardi, Italy and I know what destruction they had in the beginning so of course I was ripe for believing the fear factor.

But after a while, I got to thinking those numbers are completely unrealistic and I began to think I'm not guaranteed to "get this", stay inside. Had to go out though but I made sure to stay far away from people. If someone had a flushed face I thought is that a fever or too much blush? LOL!

When the county started publishing their data, I calculated out percentages of population with the cases and every day my anxiety on getting this dropped. After a while I thought wait...??.. how much of this is nursing homes? Sure enough articles started popping up about the number of cases in various nursing homes in the county.

NOW I'm a little peeved with today's data. There are a lot of people who aren't coming back from this financially, businesses that will never be reopened.

All that money the government has thrown out there could have gone to nursing homes. Those places are in general a horrible place to live. Staffing levels are terrible. Diseases spread easily and residents barely get to see a doctor. Other health conditions are not being treated and nurses are even being laid off if they don't work in the "right" areas. And still we're preparing for the "onslaught" once we reopen. Maybe it happens and maybe it doesn't but I'm not happy with the amount of fear being pushed around. The numbers in the OC do not bear that out.

I'm not talking about other hot spots. They can do whatever they want.

 

[qwerty]

This was the biggest over reaction I have ever seen in my life. Perpetuated but stupid politicians. Oh China locked down? We should do a lockdown and every other idiot country lined up right behind them.

I?m glad Sweden has taken the approach they have, they had the courage to not fall in line with all of the other stupid countries. I hope we shut down in fall so we can?t prevent the flu deaths.

 

[Liar Loan]

Here is a link to see that Sweden is actually doing worse than its neighbors who enacted stricter protocols:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

I think the theory behind what Sweden is doing is that, yes, you will have greater numbers of fatalities initially, but over the course of the full pandemic less people will die as herd immunity is established.  Those that are elderly or high risk should isolate themselves until that threshold has been reached.  The big drawback to this 'experiment' is that nobody knows for sure if herd immunity is even achievable with covid-19.

 

[qwerty]

Here is a link to see that Sweden is actually doing worse than its neighbors who enacted stricter protocols:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

I think the theory behind what Sweden is doing is that, yes, you will have greater numbers of fatalities initially, but over the course of the full pandemic less people will die as herd immunity is established.  Those that are elderly or high risk should isolate themselves until that threshold has been reached.  The big drawback to this 'experiment' is that nobody knows for sure if herd immunity is even achievable with covid-19.

At least they are taking their shot.

Someone had to try

 

[eyephone]

This was the biggest over reaction I have ever seen in my life. Perpetuated but stupid politicians. Oh China locked down? We should do a lockdown and every other idiot country lined up right behind them.

I?m glad Sweden has taken the approach they have, they had the courage to not fall in line with all of the other stupid countries. I hope we shut down in fall so we can?t prevent the flu deaths.

Stupid? There is a poll that 80 percent of America does not want to move to fast to open. Public opinion matters in America but not in Mexico.

#stayawayfromtherefibeansyo

 

[eyephone]

Sounds like qwerty just complained about Sweden. But I can not complain?
Double standard, strike zone is moving

 

[Kangen.Irvine]

Late to the conversation on schools opening, but remember that everything school related is locally controlled. The governor never officially closed schools, but waived requirements so districts wouldn?t lose funding if they continue to provide meals. School years are officially 180 days and can be spread throughout the year in any way by the district, not the state. Class sizes are not the product of CA legislation, but local school district and teacher association bargaining. School funding is the product of general fund revenues so expect less school funding once the May revise (Newsom?s budget) comes out and larger class sizes unless instructional minute requirements are waived by the state.

 

[eyephone]

Late to the conversation on schools opening, but remember that everything school related is locally controlled. The governor never officially closed schools, but waived requirements so districts wouldn?t lose funding if they continue to provide meals. School years are officially 180 days and can be spread throughout the year in any way by the district, not the state. Class sizes are not the product of CA legislation, but local school district and teacher association bargaining. School funding is the product of general fund revenues so expect less school funding once the May revise (Newsom?s budget) comes out and larger class sizes unless instructional minute requirements are waived by the state.

Send them to school traditional or not? That is the question.

 

[daedalus]

I agree there is possibly more fear here than warranted, largely due to bad/incomplete/suspect data.  And it's the suspect data the kills me...we don't know what data is good and what data is bad.

But I believe the deaths.  Things WOULD have 100% certainly been a lot worse if we had not taken cautionary measures.  It's really obvious in the charts.  But maybe we shotgunned a crapload of things, when 20%of the measures would have had 80% the impact.  What if all we need to do is wear masks and stay 6' apart as we go about our daily lives?  We just don't know. 

 

[eyephone]

I agree there is possibly more fear here than warranted, largely due to bad/incomplete/suspect data.  And it's the suspect data the kills me...we don't know what data is good and what data is bad.

But I believe the deaths.  Things WOULD have 100% certainly been a lot worse if we had not taken cautionary measures.  It's really obvious in the charts.  But maybe we shotgunned a crapload of things, when 20%of the measures would have had 80% the impact.  What if all we need to do is wear masks and stay 6' apart as we go about our daily lives?  We just don't know.

Do you trust other people? What if people do not wear masks or cough? How about at work, what if someone continues to cough? Do you tell your boss or hr or complain to Cal OSHA?  (like a dry cough) Will they take action? idk
Sorry I do not have faith in people. This society in America do whatever you want.

Do you trust the government? They suppose to protect you. Heck if I was a senior, I would be pissed and say what in the world is gong on. 

 

[Kangen.Irvine]

Late to the conversation on schools opening, but remember that everything school related is locally controlled. The governor never officially closed schools, but waived requirements so districts wouldn?t lose funding if they continue to provide meals. School years are officially 180 days and can be spread throughout the year in any way by the district, not the state. Class sizes are not the product of CA legislation, but local school district and teacher association bargaining. School funding is the product of general fund revenues so expect less school funding once the May revise (Newsom?s budget) comes out and larger class sizes unless instructional minute requirements are waived by the state.

Send them to school traditional or not? That is the question.

Be more specific. My comments were what the current law states or who currently has the authority.

 

[eyephone]

Late to the conversation on schools opening, but remember that everything school related is locally controlled. The governor never officially closed schools, but waived requirements so districts wouldn%u2019t lose funding if they continue to provide meals. School years are officially 180 days and can be spread throughout the year in any way by the district, not the state. Class sizes are not the product of CA legislation, but local school district and teacher association bargaining. School funding is the product of general fund revenues so expect less school funding once the May revise (Newsom%u2019s budget) comes out and larger class sizes unless instructional minute requirements are waived by the state.

Send them to school traditional or not? That is the question.

Be more specific. My comments were what the current law states or who currently has the authority.

Not regarding the current law or disputing your post.
Are people gong to trust the safety of schools?

 

[iacrenter]

Governor Newsom will be closing ALL California beaches:
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/04/29/memo-says-california-governor-will-order-all-beaches-closed-2/
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-29/coronavirus-california-newsom-beaches

 

[usctrojancpa]

Governor Newsom will be closing ALL California beaches:
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/04/29/memo-says-california-governor-will-order-all-beaches-closed-2/
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-29/coronavirus-california-newsom-beaches

Yet Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, and San Clemente want to keep the beaches open....wonder who'll win out.

 

[qwerty]

Rich white people will win out, my money is on the beach cities

 

[daedalus]

Do you trust other people? What if people do not wear masks or cough? How about at work, what if someone continues to cough? Do you tell your boss or hr or complain to Cal OSHA?  (like a dry cough) Will they take action? idk
Sorry I do not have faith in people. This society in America do whatever you want.

Do you trust the government? They suppose to protect you. Heck if I was a senior, I would be pissed and say what in the world is gong on. 

Not sure what my level of trust in the govt has to do with this.  Again, we don't know exactly how effective each measure is.  Maybe me wearing a mask--the same N95 mask healthcare workers are clamoring for--would give me a very high chance of not catching anything from anyone coughing near me.  We need better data.

Would I rat on a sick coworker?  Absolutely, though I like to think no one I work with would be that selfish.  Happened at my wife's workplace unfortunately and I completely agreed with it.  Someone was escorted out of the building by security.  No one I've spoken to about it thought it was any sort of an overreach.  Public opinion is overwhelmingly congruent on something like that I think.

 

[aquabliss]

Governor Newsom will be closing ALL California beaches:
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/04/29/memo-says-california-governor-will-order-all-beaches-closed-2/
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-29/coronavirus-california-newsom-beaches

Yet Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, and San Clemente want to keep the beaches open....wonder who'll win out.

I think Newport Beach city council met Tuesday and agreed to keep them open, now Wednesday Newsome says they will be closed.  Maybe on Saturday the NBPD and the OC Sherriff will have to figure out who has jurisdiction to issue a citation to 3 year old Timmy in his Pokemon bathing suit.