coronavirus

[Irvinecommuter]

The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns
New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven?t determined the spread.

Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. has now carried out two large-scale experiments in public health?first, in March and April, the lockdown of the economy to arrest the spread of the virus, and second, since mid-April, the reopening of the economy. The results are in. Counterintuitive though it may be, statistical analysis shows that locking down the economy didn?t contain the disease?s spread and reopening it didn?t unleash a second wave of infections.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-failed-experiment-of-covid-lockdowns-11599000890

1)  Weird that it's a commentary piece and not a science piece

2)  What are the data points?  What does it mean to "not contain spread"

3)  It didn't unleash a second wave?  Probably because we are still in the first wave for most of the states...CA, WA, and NY are experience 2nd waves.

4)  Here are some other data points

Outbreaks are comparatively smaller in states where efforts to contain the virus were stronger over the summer and fall ? potential good news for leaders taking action now. States and cities are reinstating restrictions and implementing new ones: In recent days, the governors of Iowa, North Dakota and Utah imposed mask mandates for the first time since the outbreak began.

The index comes from Oxford?s Blavatnik School of Government, where researchers track the policies ? or lack thereof ? governments use to contain the virus and protect residents, such as contact tracing, mask mandates and restrictions on businesses and gatherings. Researchers aggregate those indicators and assign a number from 0 to 100 to each government?s total response.

At its highest level of containment efforts, New York state scored an 80 on the index. At the beginning of November, most states were scoring in the 40s and 50s. Though many have taken fresh steps to contain the virus since then, the Times analysis compares cases and hospitalizations for a given date to a state?s index score from two weeks before, since researchers say it is reasonable to expect a lag between a policy's implementation and its outcome.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I see the rate has increased dramatically within a day. Thanks for the update.

While 18,664 deaths are a great number, I still think the percentage is not as big as to be put in curfews and etc.

What?  In one day?  That's the cumulative number...

There are 11 million cases in US and 250K deaths...that's 2.2% 

Please stop spreading false numbers...if you truly made a mistake I would encourage you to delete or edit your last post.

 

[morekaos]

There are just as many studies that the death rates number is overcounted...It's the old Garbage in, garbage out observation...

We could be vastly overestimating the death rate for COVID-19. Here's why

Using patient data from China, public health officials initially estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases. The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. This matters because they do not appear in any of the official statistics.

Take, for example, a New Yorker who is mildly sick. She calls her family doctor who makes a clinical diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 based on her symptoms, rather than with a test. Because she is not very sick, she is advised to stay home. There is no mechanism for her doctor to report her diagnosis to the health authorities, so if she gets better, she is never counted. Only if she becomes ill enough to be admitted to the hospital, or is tested, is she counted as a COVID-19 case. If she dies, she is counted as a COVID-19 death. If she survives, she will not be counted at all.

Once the number of infections is determined, this eventually becomes the denominator in our public health calculation. The number of deaths is our numerator.

Numerator (number of deaths) divided by the denominator (number of people infected) x 100 = the infection fatality rate.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/

 

[Irvinecommuter]

There are just as many studies that the death rates number is overcounted...It's the old Garbage in, garbage out observation...

We could be vastly overestimating the death rate for COVID-19. Here's why

Using patient data from China, public health officials initially estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases. The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. This matters because they do not appear in any of the official statistics.

Take, for example, a New Yorker who is mildly sick. She calls her family doctor who makes a clinical diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 based on her symptoms, rather than with a test. Because she is not very sick, she is advised to stay home. There is no mechanism for her doctor to report her diagnosis to the health authorities, so if she gets better, she is never counted. Only if she becomes ill enough to be admitted to the hospital, or is tested, is she counted as a COVID-19 case. If she dies, she is counted as a COVID-19 death. If she survives, she will not be counted at all.

Once the number of infections is determined, this eventually becomes the denominator in our public health calculation. The number of deaths is our numerator.

Numerator (number of deaths) divided by the denominator (number of people infected) x 100 = the infection fatality rate.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/

Absolutely...that's why I said we will not know what the true numbers in the middle of the pandemic.  That will need to be determined for years to come but 300K+ extra deaths means something...regardless of whether COVID is at 2% or 1%.

 

[nosuchreality]

NSR - you are lying to yourself.  You are being naive if you are just taking the calculation you are doing at face value. I think it is a very reasonable assumption that the actual death rate is lower. Its pretty obvious to everyone that there have been more actual cases of covid that have not been identified that would decrease the death rate. That is supported by various antibody studies done. Now I would agree with you that anyone that tries to state the actual number is probably wrong but in general they are right that the true death is always going to be lower than the stated rate.

I'm not.  I'm quite aware that the number of people that actually have had Covid is quite a bit higher than the confirmed test number.  I do take offense at the chronic pumping of stats like 0.1% with no indication of those assumptions or from where the numbers come.

A September study puts the likely number of people at 3x.  That puts the death rate with all the undiagnosed people at 0.9%+, still basically 1%.  As others note, that doesn't reflect the incoming deaths of the 2 million people diagnosed in the past two weeks.

And contrary to the downplay, 1% is disasterous. It's not a death sentence, however for something that is likely to infect 30-50 million people over the next five months before a meaningful vaccine rollout that is another 300,000 to 500,000 deaths.

Hyperbole? Today we had just under 2000 deaths. We had just under 200,000 new cases diagnosed. We have roughly 160 days until end of April.  Our current run rate takes us to 300,000 and 32,000,000 diagnosed infections. That's diagnosed infections where our current national death rate is at 2.1% (252k deaths/11.8m confirmed cases)

The current run rate needs to get turned. Many regions are struggling wih hospitalizations, the current run rate in those regions will increase the death rate and increase the death rate for other items like car accidents, cancer and heart attacks due to lack of resources and staff to treat them or delays in diagnosis.

Spouting 0.1% fatality will increase the death rate, increase the case count and increase the damage to the economy.  It increases the people that don't take it seriously and increase the spread further disrupting the economy.

 

[nosuchreality]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


Have them explain the excess deaths.

There are just as many studies that the death rates number is overcounted...It's the old Garbage in, garbage out observation...

We could be vastly overestimating the death rate for COVID-19. Here's why

Using patient data from China, public health officials initially estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases. The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. This matters because they do not appear in any of the official statistics.

Take, for example, a New Yorker who is mildly sick. She calls her family doctor who makes a clinical diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 based on her symptoms, rather than with a test. Because she is not very sick, she is advised to stay home. There is no mechanism for her doctor to report her diagnosis to the health authorities, so if she gets better, she is never counted. Only if she becomes ill enough to be admitted to the hospital, or is tested, is she counted as a COVID-19 case. If she dies, she is counted as a COVID-19 death. If she survives, she will not be counted at all.

Once the number of infections is determined, this eventually becomes the denominator in our public health calculation. The number of deaths is our numerator.

Numerator (number of deaths) divided by the denominator (number of people infected) x 100 = the infection fatality rate.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Here is the other thing about this...this concept that we cannot shutdown because of the economic is ridiculous.  There is no reason why the government cannot provide direct stimulus to individuals during the pandemic. 

Fed and US government had no problems finding $4 trillion to prop up businesses...they should have just given that $4 trillion to individuals and states.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/coronavirus-bailout-spending/

For some reason, businesses are still more important than people.  Corporations are booming during COVID while individuals and small businesses are suffering. 

 

[nosuchreality]

Its just flu.  Okay, covid stats are basically coming from week 46.  Here's flu positvity rates by week.  If this behaves like 'just the flu'

Come January, we're Fucked

Frankly since 40% of the popularion wants to believe it's basically media bullshit, plan on traveling, plan on their regular holdiay gatherings, are bent about bars getting closed at 10PM, I suspect it will be spread like the flu and the spike in January.

 

[zovall]

Our lockdown was extremely weak and poorly coordinated. It hurt the economy and didn't stop the spread, though it may have slowed it down. Even without a shutdown, the economy will continue to hurt as people will change their behavior even if there isn't a shutdown ordered. The stimulus wasn't enough for some of the people that really needed it. Yet, others were making more staying unemployed. And plenty of those with businesses took out loans (that became grants = free money). Some had a legitimate need whereas some took advantage even if they didn't need it. Let's help the people that are in these huge car lines waiting for food.

We are incapable of doing a country wide shutdown. Things aren't decided from the top and accepted all the way down (regardless of which color is in charge). How many tens? of thousands of school meetings went on all around to country to come up with their own plans to close/open? And we are still fighting on what to do with that. We need to let people keep their kids at home if they can and accommodate those who really can't. I know, easier said than done.

Instead of producing N95 masks for everyone, we were shaming those who had them (yes, this happened.. save them for the hospitals, regular people don't know how to use them, they won't work for you but will work for medical professionals), and then pivoting to the current "any mask is good, and everyone should wear one". Instead of trying to convince someone that a cloth bandana will stop the spread, give everyone an N95 mask.

We took forever to increase testing in the early parts of this and it is still far from ideal. What we need is "RAPID At-Home COVID Testing for All"https://time.com/5912705/covid-19-stop-spread-christmas/

This virus has a fatality rate much lower than initially thought (and we can and do argue all day about the exact specifics). Yet, if given a choice, you clearly do not want to get this virus.  But it might just be inevitable given how easily this spreads.

A vaccine won't solve everything. Many people will not take the vaccine, at least initially. I'd prefer to just stay socially distanced for a bit longer and see how things play out.

 

[eyephone]

Its just flu.  Okay, covid stats are basically coming from week 46.  Here's flu positvity rates by week.  If this behaves like 'just the flu'

Come January, we're Fucked

Frankly since 40% of the popularion wants to believe it's basically media bullshit, plan on traveling, plan on their regular holdiay gatherings, are bent about bars getting closed at 10PM, I suspect it will be spread like the flu and the spike in January.

Thanks for the data. They have no solutions or valid suggestions. The path that we are on is down a cliff.

 

[zubs]

CA Judge Orders San Diego Strip Clubs To Reopen As Churches Fight For Same Right
https://www.dailywire.com/news/ca-j..._ajiMfREGPr9onQcBSV6zI9LY_89jS9I3rRu-oV8NGYAE

Let me get this straight. Due to the corona virus let's close down the churches where people can get emotional and spiritual healing, close down the fitness centers where one can reduce his stress and stay physically healthy, but let's open up the strip clubs?

Is it just me, or is there something wrong with this picture?

Obviously, the church needs to hire the strip joints lawyers.  Whoever they're using sucks.

 

[Mety]

@Irvinecommuter,

It says 0.6% increase from prior day total for death. This is from CDC BTW.

Do you still think I need to delete or change my post? Telling me to do so was so communist-like, bro. Maybe you should delete that post of yours. ;D

 

[eyephone]

It is all about making the best of what you have.
Have they tried the following:
1. Outdoor church
2. wait in the cars in the parking lot,
3. zoom meeting (maybe even more attendance since people do not have to leave home) Maybe the hiccup is the donations. Web, via phone or mail)
4. Bible studies can be done trough zoom or conference call

 

[eyephone]

Belly:

I like to use your words. Come up with a solution for covid. I have not heard one solution from you. I have given so many solutions. Some would say better than the local elected politicians in the OC and IE.
Because at this rate hospitals are going to reach capacity.

@Irvinecommuter,

It says 0.6% increase from prior day total for death. This is from CDC BTW.

Do you still think I need to delete or change my post? Telling me to do so was so communist-like, bro. Maybe you should delete that post of yours. ;D

 

[Irvinecommuter]

@Irvinecommuter,

It says 0.6% increase from prior day total for death. This is from CDC BTW.

Do you still think I need to delete or change my post? Telling me to do so was so communist-like, bro. Maybe you should delete that post of yours. ;D

0.6% increase from the prior day...not 0.6% in the overall rate.  Yesterday there were about 18,300 death...today 18,400...that is an 0.6% increase day-to-day.  Overall death rate is 1.7% (18466/1059267).  It is hard for me to believe that you don't understand the difference.

You can do what you like but if posting misleading and erroneous facts about a pandemic is not super Christian in my book.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

It is all about making the best of what you have.
Have they tried the following:
1. Outdoor church
2. wait in the cars in the parking lot,
3. zoom meeting (maybe even more attendance since people do not have to leave home) Maybe the hiccup is the donations. Web, via phone or mail)
4. Bible studies can be done trough zoom or conference call

Most churches are doing this and are fine with it...it's people like Mety and John MacArthur who believe that one has to congregate in person...in close proximately and with no masks.

Hiccup is most definitely the donations.  Catholic church in NYC complaining about the restrictions too.

Someone mentioned online that there was a sign at a church that said:

"Church is open...this building is closed"

 

[morekaos]

Do we need the Hospital Ship again?...

Trump will send massive hospital ship to Port of Los Angeles amid coronavirus pandemic
The USNS Mercy ? one of the Navy's two 1,000-bed hospital ships ? should arrive at the massive cargo complex off San Pedro next week, officials said. The ship is currently in San Diego.

https://www.dailybreeze.com/2020/03/22/trump-will-send-massive-hospital-ship-to-port-of-los-angeles-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

[nosuchreality]

It gets better, going back to 1976, 2017/18 was the worst flu season on record weighing at a preliminary 61,000 deaths. Twice the average.

We are at 4x the worst flu season in the last 44 years and did the bulk of the deaths during the summer and warm fall with another 3 months to go to reach first confirmed date.

It just the flu.  Its killed 8x the flu in 9 months and is a runaway train right now.

 

[eyephone]

Updated my post:

Belly:

I like to use your words. Come up with a solution for covid. I have not heard one solution from you. I have given so many solutions. I know you might say oh but it is too invasive and it is not freedom. But would you rather have normal malls/restaurant/movies theaters/sports events at full capacity? (Yes, you heard me right. I saw a hockey game in Japan with people watching in stands sitting close to each other.) We are arguing over wearing a mask. (kind of funny if you ask me)

Because at this rate hospitals are going to reach capacity.

@Irvinecommuter,

It says 0.6% increase from prior day total for death. This is from CDC BTW.

Do you still think I need to delete or change my post? Telling me to do so was so communist-like, bro. Maybe you should delete that post of yours. ;D

[/quote]

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Do we need the Hospital Ship again?...

Trump will send massive hospital ship to Port of Los Angeles amid coronavirus pandemic
The USNS Mercy ? one of the Navy's two 1,000-bed hospital ships ? should arrive at the massive cargo complex off San Pedro next week, officials said. The ship is currently in San Diego.

https://www.dailybreeze.com/2020/03/22/trump-will-send-massive-hospital-ship-to-port-of-los-angeles-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/

Maye that's why ND and SD have the highest and third highest mortality rate from COVID in the world....not enough hospital ships.