irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
zubs said:
You mean some + some = some.
When would be next housing Bottom?
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You mean some + some = some.
Take it from a long time owners like IHO, and you will be better of in the long run vs. waiting game.
Ok, so December is only 4 months away. Time to line up and get ready. The REAL slow down will start happening, or is it NOT!
If the majority suspects that, then so many will start buying again from 2021 so it might not ever hit the bottom. But who knows, right?
Also reading again from the page 1, there were some RE counseling expecting this year to be 3.6% rise. Has that been the case yet?
Wait, I thought last year was the worst slow down in last 8 years. Now it's this year? Man, are we going to have that every year now?
Interesting though that newer Irvine zip codes have the median up. 92618 for 7.1% up? That's pretty high. I guess it's because of the new builds.
Also University Park has a gain on sales by 5.7%. Those attached SFRs and single floor homes are real attractive especially compare to modern tri-level homes.
Yes, I'm still blocked. Can you please post the rest of the article?
I like OCReg's sensationalist headlines... I assume this is for June which we knew there would be a drop because Trulia already showed that back in June.
Averages median price drop for Irvine: 5% (although there seems to be one zip code missing because the previous articles have 8 zipcodes)
So again, although volume has indeed experienced a slowdown... still not a significant drop in price... why isn't that part of the headline?
"Sales volume tumbles 14% but prices still remain high!!"
Edit: Eight ) was translated as an emote.
Yes. Let's look at more recent data as of July 31.
While 92614 is up YOY, Irvine is down 2.5%:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
No. Bedrooms May 1 - Jul 31 y-o-y 3 months prior 1 year prior 5 years prior
1 Bedroom $426,000 -8.4% $422,500 $465,000 $353,000
2 Bedroom $615,000 -3.9% $630,000 $640,000 $515,000
3 Bedroom $840,000 + 0.2% $836,500 $838,000 $739,000
4 Bedroom $1,161,000 + 0.5% $1,109,000 $1,155,000 $1,008,000
All Properties $829,000 -2.5% $835,000 $850,000 $803,750
Seems seasonal doesn't it? Or is cyclical a better term?
OC register actually might have more accurate price records. Trulia, Redfin and Zillow get their information from MLS. But what?s recorded in MLS isn?t always true. Sometimes they mess up and sometimes the realtors mess up on recording the prices with or without intention. I don?t know where OCR gets their resources from, but if they do from the state/city/government or somewhere more accurate than MLS, then OCR price records would be more accurate.
In terms of RE business, I believe I have been pretty aligned with your idea. I also thought early last year was the highest peak that the price would come down from then. I think the sales have definitely slowed down, but the price seems to be acting different than how I expected. I thought the price would come down far worse by now, but it?s actually slightly up, but at the same time that?s normal because homes are supposed to gain 3% increase every year by default. Anything below 3% increase should actually be counted as a decrease. The slow sales should result in lower prices so it might take some time as meccos has said. I think the lower interest rates are kind of holding things from falling apart. We?ll see how it goes.
You mean some + some = some.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
The slowdown that you and others predicted hasn't really materialized in terms of significant price drops. Do we wait another year? Is December still your magical month of when prices will catch up to volume?irvinehomeowner said:
Take it from a long time owners like IHO, and you will be better of in the long run vs. waiting game.
Ok, so December is only 4 months away. Time to line up and get ready. The REAL slow down will start happening, or is it NOT!
zubs said:
If the majority suspects that, then so many will start buying again from 2021 so it might not ever hit the bottom. But who knows, right?
Also reading again from the page 1, there were some RE counseling expecting this year to be 3.6% rise. Has that been the case yet?
Homebuying in Irvine, Tustin tumbles 14% in Orange County?s worst first half in 8 years, but IHO says it's still seasonal
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/08/...n-orange-countys-worst-first-half-in-8-years/
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/08/...n-orange-countys-worst-first-half-in-8-years/
in case IHO bitches that he can't read the article due to the paywall:
5. Irvine 92603: $1,087,500 median, down 17.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 114 vs. 144 a year earlier, a decline of 20.8% in 12 months.
6. Irvine 92604: $750,000 median, down 3.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 36 of 83. Sales of 111 vs. 136 a year earlier, a decline of 18.4% in 12 months.
7. Irvine 92606: $799,500 median, down 3.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 26 of 83. Sales of 64 vs. 79 a year earlier, a decline of 19.0% in 12 months.
8. Irvine 92612: $663,500 median, down 11.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 52 of 83. Sales of 205 vs. 194 a year earlier, a gain of 5.7% in 12 months.
9. Irvine 92614: $730,000 median, down 7% in a year. Price rank? No. 42 of 83. Sales of 111 vs. 118 a year earlier, a decline of 5.9% in 12 months.
10. Irvine 92618: $966,750 median, up 7.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 14 of 83. Sales of 621 vs. 688 a year earlier, a decline of 9.7% in 12 months.
11. Irvine 92620: $1,030,000 median, up 0.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 11 of 83. Sales of 366 vs. 630 a year earlier, a decline of 41.9% in 12 months.
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/08/...n-orange-countys-worst-first-half-in-8-years/
5. Irvine 92603: $1,087,500 median, down 17.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 114 vs. 144 a year earlier, a decline of 20.8% in 12 months.
6. Irvine 92604: $750,000 median, down 3.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 36 of 83. Sales of 111 vs. 136 a year earlier, a decline of 18.4% in 12 months.
7. Irvine 92606: $799,500 median, down 3.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 26 of 83. Sales of 64 vs. 79 a year earlier, a decline of 19.0% in 12 months.
8. Irvine 92612: $663,500 median, down 11.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 52 of 83. Sales of 205 vs. 194 a year earlier, a gain of 5.7% in 12 months.
9. Irvine 92614: $730,000 median, down 7% in a year. Price rank? No. 42 of 83. Sales of 111 vs. 118 a year earlier, a decline of 5.9% in 12 months.
10. Irvine 92618: $966,750 median, up 7.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 14 of 83. Sales of 621 vs. 688 a year earlier, a decline of 9.7% in 12 months.
11. Irvine 92620: $1,030,000 median, up 0.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 11 of 83. Sales of 366 vs. 630 a year earlier, a decline of 41.9% in 12 months.
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/08/...n-orange-countys-worst-first-half-in-8-years/
WTTCHMN said:
Wait, I thought last year was the worst slow down in last 8 years. Now it's this year? Man, are we going to have that every year now?
Interesting though that newer Irvine zip codes have the median up. 92618 for 7.1% up? That's pretty high. I guess it's because of the new builds.
Also University Park has a gain on sales by 5.7%. Those attached SFRs and single floor homes are real attractive especially compare to modern tri-level homes.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
WTTCHMN said:
Yes, I'm still blocked. Can you please post the rest of the article?
I like OCReg's sensationalist headlines... I assume this is for June which we knew there would be a drop because Trulia already showed that back in June.
Averages median price drop for Irvine: 5% (although there seems to be one zip code missing because the previous articles have 8 zipcodes)
So again, although volume has indeed experienced a slowdown... still not a significant drop in price... why isn't that part of the headline?
"Sales volume tumbles 14% but prices still remain high!!"
Edit: Eight ) was translated as an emote.
zubs
Well-known member
Kenko held his money about 6 months after you said a slow down. He actually benefited from holding. But price jumped back up afterwards. You can see it in the graphs. It's hard to time correctly. However, if all the doom and gloom is true, then Kenko should not have bought already since we will be facing a real recession soon.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
zubs said:
Yes. Let's look at more recent data as of July 31.
While 92614 is up YOY, Irvine is down 2.5%:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
No. Bedrooms May 1 - Jul 31 y-o-y 3 months prior 1 year prior 5 years prior
1 Bedroom $426,000 -8.4% $422,500 $465,000 $353,000
2 Bedroom $615,000 -3.9% $630,000 $640,000 $515,000
3 Bedroom $840,000 + 0.2% $836,500 $838,000 $739,000
4 Bedroom $1,161,000 + 0.5% $1,109,000 $1,155,000 $1,008,000
All Properties $829,000 -2.5% $835,000 $850,000 $803,750
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
zubs said:
Seems seasonal doesn't it? Or is cyclical a better term?
zubs said:
OC register actually might have more accurate price records. Trulia, Redfin and Zillow get their information from MLS. But what?s recorded in MLS isn?t always true. Sometimes they mess up and sometimes the realtors mess up on recording the prices with or without intention. I don?t know where OCR gets their resources from, but if they do from the state/city/government or somewhere more accurate than MLS, then OCR price records would be more accurate.
eyephone said:
In terms of RE business, I believe I have been pretty aligned with your idea. I also thought early last year was the highest peak that the price would come down from then. I think the sales have definitely slowed down, but the price seems to be acting different than how I expected. I thought the price would come down far worse by now, but it?s actually slightly up, but at the same time that?s normal because homes are supposed to gain 3% increase every year by default. Anything below 3% increase should actually be counted as a decrease. The slow sales should result in lower prices so it might take some time as meccos has said. I think the lower interest rates are kind of holding things from falling apart. We?ll see how it goes.
zubs
Well-known member
I like trulia's data because it's easy to read and understand, plus there is a history. You can see that trulia's median price lines up with OC registers median price during the months of MAR APR MAY, but come summer the median price at Trulia goes up. Perhaps OC Register is using median prices from May.
Take a look.
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/92614-Irvine/market-trends/
Take a look.
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/92614-Irvine/market-trends/