When would be next housing Bottom?

[Agent Joe]

No one knows when the market will bottom with 100% confidence/accuracy. I mean NO ONE. If anyone throws out a time, I'd love to hear the facts and numbers backing up the claim. Buy when the numbers make sense for you personally. Unless you are flipping, it really makes little difference when the market fluctuates. You will always need a place to live and so will tenants. If you are flipping, then good luck to you.

 

[momopi]

I like to bottom fish, but you have to careful.  Often the smaller palm sized sand dabs are more profitable in numbers than larger and more impressive looking halibut.  Also some rock fish have sharp, venomous quills like fixer uppers with large hidden repair costs.

 

[eyephone]

In my opinion: buying real estate is a big transaction

Therefore, I see nothing wrong with an individual waiting for the right time to buy.

The smart/successful business do careful analysis before they take action. (Buying equipment, hiring more people, advertisement/marketing, acquiring a company) So it?s okay for a business to think things through and not individuals?

There is no question that the new tax law has an effect on real estate.

 

[Cares]

There is no question that the new tax law has an effect on real estate.

I honestly think it has minimal effect. I would dare to say very few buyers take into account any tax implications when purchasing a home. Most purchase out of necessity to live somewhere and/or proximity to something.

Plus the tax implication of SALT limit is "minimal" when considering the cost of a home.

 

[eyephone]

There is no question that the new tax law has an effect on real estate.

I honestly think it has minimal effect. I would dare to say very few buyers take into account any tax implications when purchasing a home. Most purchase out of necessity to live somewhere and/or proximity to something.

Plus the tax implication of SALT limit is "minimal" when considering the cost of a home.

There are many articles from analysts/experts that support my statement.
As I previously stated people were simply buying homes for the deductions aka legal tax shelter. But the tax law changed that approach as there was a cap on RE deductions.

Let me also add lack of foreign buyers.
I?m looking at the numbers and I have to say I?m correct.

One bright spot about RE is the low interest rate. (Refi)

 

[TCT]

I will say that the current tax laws are affecting our decision a little bit. Mainly in the price of home we are looking at. All we care about is the monthly payment, can we make it comfortably. A little bit of tax help could sway us to buy a bit more house. As it is now we can?t count on the old tax laws coming back to help us. It may not even help us they increase the base tax rate anyways.

It is not affecting our decision to buy a home, only in the cost of home to purchase.

 

[eyephone]

I will say that the current tax laws are affecting our decision a little bit. Mainly in the price of home we are looking at. All we care about is the monthly payment, can we make it comfortably. A little bit of tax help could sway us to buy a bit more house. As it is now we can?t count on the old tax laws coming back to help us. It may not even help us they increase the base tax rate anyways.

It is not affecting our decision to buy a home, only in the cost of home to purchase.

They can always repeal and replace the tax law. So you wouldn?t like more deductions to your taxes?
The previous tax deduction was a big driver for RE market. The argument that people make that people need homes is correct and flawd. Because people need a place to stay but maybe not expensive/high price homes.

If you haven?t noticed the US is more in a deficit because of the new tax law.

 

[TCT]

I will say that the current tax laws are affecting our decision a little bit. Mainly in the price of home we are looking at. All we care about is the monthly payment, can we make it comfortably. A little bit of tax help could sway us to buy a bit more house. As it is now we can?t count on the old tax laws coming back to help us. It may not even help us they increase the base tax rate anyways.

It is not affecting our decision to buy a home, only in the cost of home to purchase.

They can always repeal and replace the tax law. So you wouldn?t like more deductions to your taxes?
The previous tax deduction was a big driver for RE market. The argument that people make that people need homes is correct and flawd. Because people need a place to stay but maybe not expensive/high price homes.

Sure we do, but we are also reasonable people. We are not going to assume the tax change will be repealed so we are planning on a payment based on today?s tax laws. If we knew the tax laws would change next year giving us a little extra tax break we could spend a bit more on a home loan and get a slightly more expensive house. That?s all though. The savings the old  tax law provides did not prevent us from entering the market. We were prepared to pay today?s prices with today?s laws.

 

[eyephone]

I will say that the current tax laws are affecting our decision a little bit. Mainly in the price of home we are looking at. All we care about is the monthly payment, can we make it comfortably. A little bit of tax help could sway us to buy a bit more house. As it is now we can?t count on the old tax laws coming back to help us. It may not even help us they increase the base tax rate anyways.

It is not affecting our decision to buy a home, only in the cost of home to purchase.

They can always repeal and replace the tax law. So you wouldn?t like more deductions to your taxes?
The previous tax deduction was a big driver for RE market. The argument that people make that people need homes is correct and flawd. Because people need a place to stay but maybe not expensive/high price homes.

Sure we do, but we are also reasonable people. We are not going to assume the tax change will be repealed so we are planning on a payment based on today?s tax laws. If we knew the tax laws would change next year giving us a little extra tax break we could spend a bit more on a home loan and get a slightly more expensive house. That?s all though. The savings the old  tax law provides did not prevent us from entering the market. We were prepared to pay today?s prices with today?s laws.

Also, this is your situation as a renter turn to a buyer. You did not really see the effect.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Sure, people can wait and like Agent Joe said, that?s close to impossible to know how long.

As we saw during this last ?slowdown?, no one knew the % drop in prices so what were they waiting for?

So buy when it?s right for you, timing the bottom is difficult and can be stressful.

 

[qwerty]

One thing to consider, perhaps it has been mentioned already is that while the SALT was capped at 10k, a lot of people ending up paying lower taxes overall so net cash flow is higher.  We paid significantly less for 2018 (from an effective tax rate perspective). So in some cases the new tax law would have an impact on RE, in other cases it would not. Not sure how the experts determine the net impact.

 

[Mety]

Isn't eyephone saying this new SLAT cap is giving us less tax break? Is qwerty saying it actually gave him more?

 

[eyephone]

Isn't eyephone saying this new SLAT cap is giving us less tax break? Is qwerty saying it actually gave him more?

Fox Business News Article: NYC home prices plunge after SALT deductions capped

New York City real estate Opens a New Window.  prices are plummeting since the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Opens a New Window. , which imposed a $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.

According to analysis from Deutsche Bank Global Research and StreetEasy, home prices in Manhattan are falling at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.

In 2006, home prices were up about 15 percent from the year prior. Between 2009 and 2010, home prices in New York City declined more than 10 percent.

According to the report from Douglas Elliman from the first quarter of 2019, the high-end housing market experienced its ?slowest conditions? since the financial crisis. The first quarter recorded the lowest number of first-quarter sales since 2012, an uptick in inventory and a larger share of sales below the $1 million mark. Sales were down 19.3 percent from the previous quarter, while the median sale price fell 5.5 percent to $850,000.

While Florida received more movers than any other state last year, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, New York's outflows to the Sunshine State were the highest ? 63,772 people. New York had the third-largest outflows of any state, with 452,580 people moving out within the past year. California, another high-tax state, had the largest outflow of domestic residents ? with the highest proportion of people headed to Texas, Arizona and Washington.

And these exoduses may only intensify. As previously reported by FOX Business, now that taxpayers have seen the consequences of the new law following the first filing season, they have a clear view of the ?dollar implications? that have resulted from changes to the tax code ? and specifically the loss of the SALT deduction. The IRS? recent guidance that officially squashed a potential workaround could also contribute to more relocations.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/nyc-home-prices-tax-salt

 

[Kings]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

 

[Mety]

Isn't eyephone saying this new SLAT cap is giving us less tax break? Is qwerty saying it actually gave him more?

Fox Business News Article: NYC home prices plunge after SALT deductions capped

New York City real estate Opens a New Window.  prices are plummeting since the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Opens a New Window. , which imposed a $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.

According to analysis from Deutsche Bank Global Research and StreetEasy, home prices in Manhattan are falling at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.

In 2006, home prices were up about 15 percent from the year prior. Between 2009 and 2010, home prices in New York City declined more than 10 percent.

According to the report from Douglas Elliman from the first quarter of 2019, the high-end housing market experienced its ?slowest conditions? since the financial crisis. The first quarter recorded the lowest number of first-quarter sales since 2012, an uptick in inventory and a larger share of sales below the $1 million mark. Sales were down 19.3 percent from the previous quarter, while the median sale price fell 5.5 percent to $850,000.

While Florida received more movers than any other state last year, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, New York's outflows to the Sunshine State were the highest ? 63,772 people. New York had the third-largest outflows of any state, with 452,580 people moving out within the past year. California, another high-tax state, had the largest outflow of domestic residents ? with the highest proportion of people headed to Texas, Arizona and Washington.

And these exoduses may only intensify. As previously reported by FOX Business, now that taxpayers have seen the consequences of the new law following the first filing season, they have a clear view of the ?dollar implications? that have resulted from changes to the tax code ? and specifically the loss of the SALT deduction. The IRS? recent guidance that officially squashed a potential workaround could also contribute to more relocations.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/nyc-home-prices-tax-salt

You watch Fox News?

 

[Hugo Township]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

Although those pieces can impact, our taxes still went up significantly at the end of the day.

 

[Kings]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

Although those pieces can impact, our taxes still went up significantly at the end of the day.

you're the first person i've heard taxes went up significantly.  care to share the difference?  with increasing income, our effective tax rate went from 50.7% to 38.1%

 

[Hugo Township]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

Although those pieces can impact, our taxes still went up significantly at the end of the day.

you're the first person i've heard taxes went up significantly.  care to share the difference?  with increasing income, our effective tax rate went from 50.7% to 38.1%

I don't feel comfortable sharing the difference on a public forum.

We're a two-income W-2 household, no kids, own a house in Irvine, pay property taxes on a basis similar to the median home price in Irvine, and no AMT.

 

[Mety]

Here are some ways to utilize MAXROI under the new tax law:

Have as many as kids possible.
Buy a home with no or minimal Mello Roos tax.
Become a single income earning household.
Donate as much as you can.
Get a hybrid or electric car that can give you tax benefits.

You're welcome.

 

[eyephone]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

Although those pieces can impact, our taxes still went up significantly at the end of the day.

you're the first person i've heard taxes went up significantly.  care to share the difference?  with increasing income, our effective tax rate went from 50.7% to 38.1%

I don't feel comfortable sharing the difference on a public forum.

We're a two-income W-2 household, no kids, own a house in Irvine, pay property taxes on a basis similar to the median home price in Irvine, and no AMT.

I agree and you shouldn?t.