When would be next housing Bottom?

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

Although those pieces can impact, our taxes still went up significantly at the end of the day.

My taxes went up a few thousand dollars on the same income.  Two working adults, no kids, own a townhouse in Irvine.

you're the first person i've heard taxes went up significantly.  care to share the difference?  with increasing income, our effective tax rate went from 50.7% to 38.1%

 

[paydawg]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

Although those pieces can impact, our taxes still went up significantly at the end of the day.

My taxes went up a few thousand dollars on the same income.  Two working adults, no kids, own a townhouse in Irvine.

you're the first person i've heard taxes went up significantly.  care to share the difference?  with increasing income, our effective tax rate went from 50.7% to 38.1%

Did your taxes go up a few thousand dollars, or did your refund go up?

 

[Hugo Township]

Here are some ways to utilize MAXROI under the new tax law:

Have as many as kids possible.
Buy a home with no or minimal Mello Roos tax.
Become a single income earning household.
Donate as much as you can.
Get a hybrid or electric car that can give you tax benefits.

You're welcome.

I think that's fucking absurd (besides no mello roos), but you do you.

 

[eyephone]

Here are some ways to utilize MAXROI under the new tax law:

Have as many as kids possible.
Buy a home with no or minimal Mello Roos tax.
Become a single income earning household.
Donate as much as you can.
Get a hybrid or electric car that can give you tax benefits.

You're welcome.

You forgot the solar panels credit. (But beware of the change TOU electric rates for SCE)

Do you mean plug in car vs straight hybrid?

The federal tax credit is like really reduced for Tesla since they sold 200k ev cars for new car purchases. (I assume potential Tesla buyers don?t care, but maybe some do.)

 

[Mety]

Here are some ways to utilize MAXROI under the new tax law:

Have as many as kids possible.
Buy a home with no or minimal Mello Roos tax.
Become a single income earning household.
Donate as much as you can.
Get a hybrid or electric car that can give you tax benefits.

You're welcome.

You forgot the solar panels credit. (But beware of the change TOU electric rates for SCE)

Do you mean plug in car vs straight hybrid?

The federal tax credit is like really reduced for Tesla since they sold 200k ev cars for new car purchases. (I assume potential Tesla buyers don?t care, but maybe some do.)

I think some plug in hybrids are still giving you some tax credit for the CA state tax.

 

[Mety]

Here are some ways to utilize MAXROI under the new tax law:

Have as many as kids possible.
Buy a home with no or minimal Mello Roos tax.
Become a single income earning household.
Donate as much as you can.
Get a hybrid or electric car that can give you tax benefits.

You're welcome.

I think that's fucking absurd (besides no mello roos), but you do you.

Yeah, it was for entertainment purposes mostly. There are still some truths to these lists if you really think about...

 

[eyephone]

Here are some ways to utilize MAXROI under the new tax law:

Have as many as kids possible.
Buy a home with no or minimal Mello Roos tax.
Become a single income earning household.
Donate as much as you can.
Get a hybrid or electric car that can give you tax benefits.

You're welcome.

You forgot the solar panels credit. (But beware of the change TOU electric rates for SCE)

Do you mean plug in car vs straight hybrid?

The federal tax credit is like really reduced for Tesla since they sold 200k ev cars for new car purchases. (I assume potential Tesla buyers don?t care, but maybe some do.)

I think some plug in hybrids are still giving you some tax credit for the CA state tax.

Yeah plugins hybrids, but not the typical hybrid.

 

[qwerty]

Isn't eyephone saying this new SLAT cap is giving us less tax break? Is qwerty saying it actually gave him more?

My salt deduction went down but due to wider income brackets, etc, my effective tax rate came down.

 

[qwerty]

salt cap is only part of the changes in the tax cuts and jobs act, which was a negative to many taxpayers.  there were other beneficial changes that nobody likes to talk about, including substantial increases to the amt exemption, revised tax brackets and in many cases reduced rates, and increased child tax credit.

Although those pieces can impact, our taxes still went up significantly at the end of the day.

you're the first person i've heard taxes went up significantly.  care to share the difference?  with increasing income, our effective tax rate went from 50.7% to 38.1%

Are you referring to top marginal rates? Seems high for effective tax rates. I haven?t done the math but to get to a 50% effective tax rate a substantial portion of your 2017 income probably had to be over 500k, perhaps several million to get the weighting to come out to a 50% effective tax rate

I?m jealous

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Like I said before, the article shows mostly price drops in Irvine, some as much as 11%.   

So now that CV posted the actual article that debunked meccos' claim of "some as much as 11%" in Irvine when it was only *one* zipcode in Irvine, can anyone post the latest article from OCReg if there is one?

I posted the LATimes article in the Housing Analysis thread and it says prices are slightly up.

Again, slowdown in volume but isn't translating to a significant slowdown in prices.

Reasons?

1. Less new homes (although that doesn't seem to be the case in Irvine)
2. Stubborn sellers
3. Seasonal

 

[meccos12]

So now that CV posted the actual article that debunked meccos' claim of "some as much as 11%" in Irvine when it was only *one* zipcode in Irvine, can anyone post the latest article from OCReg if there is one?

Your posts are such nonsense, its hilarious.  My claim of a 11% price drop was not a claim but rather a quote directly form the article.  The article you referenced literally shows prices drops in almost every zipcode in Irvine and yes some had a price drop up to 11%. 

Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014 but IHO says it's just seasonal
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/07/...s-fall-11-countywide-pace-slowest-since-2014/

You posted something like this already.

Sales volume is down but prices are same or higher.

What the article clearly debunked was your claim that "prices are same or higher".

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So now that CV posted the actual article that debunked meccos' claim of "some as much as 11%" in Irvine when it was only *one* zipcode in Irvine, can anyone post the latest article from OCReg if there is one?

Your posts are such nonsense, its hilarious.  My claim of a 11% price drop was not a claim but rather a quote directly form the article.  The article you referenced literally shows prices drops in almost every zipcode in Irvine and yes some had a price drop up to 11%. 

Show me the some. CV posted the article and there was only one in Irvine.

Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014 but IHO says it's just seasonal
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/07/...s-fall-11-countywide-pace-slowest-since-2014/

You posted something like this already.

Sales volume is down but prices are same or higher.

What the article clearly debunked was your claim that "prices are same or higher".

Learn to read.

I was referring to the previous article WTC posted which I explained twice and you continue to ignore.

And what is it now? Seems that prices haven?t dropped as much as you predicted. What?s the average drop for Irvine zip codes today? I asked this before and you disappeared because you know the answer.

But that?s ok, I?m past that, I?m trying to figure out why because the volume has indeed decreased. You keep mentioning December... but isn?t that when prices *seasonally* drop anyways?

And yes, prices are not rising like they have in the past, but they are not exactly dropping to levels where people had to wait. Which was the crux of our discussion.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Since I have no idea if there is a more recent article from OCR, here is CV"s post again quoting the last one for Irvine:

4. Irvine 92602: $1,195,000 median, down 2.9% in a year. Price rank? 12th of 83. Sales of 37 vs. 88 a year earlier, a decline of 58.0% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,267,500 median, up 3.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 24 vs. 38 a year earlier, a decline of 36.8% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $761,250 median, down 1.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 34 of 83. Sales of 28 vs. 24 a year earlier, a gain of 16.7% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $872,500 median, up 1.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 23 of 83. Sales of 14 vs. 16 a year earlier, a decline of 12.5% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $715,000 median, down 5.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 43 of 83. Sales of 61 vs. 38 a year earlier, a gain of 60.5% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $725,500 median, down 11% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 30 vs. 27 a year earlier, a gain of 11.1% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $897,500 median, down 0.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 21 of 83. Sales of 127 vs. 97 a year earlier, a gain of 30.9% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $958,000 median, down 6.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 19 of 83. Sales of 67 vs. 131 a year earlier, a decline of 48.9% in 12 months.

Only ONE Irvine zip down 11% according to that article. The next lowest, 6.6%. The average? If my math is right, down 2.9%. And average drop in volume? About 4.6%.

And this is May data. Who wants to guess what June and July's numbers say?

So again, volume has been down for over a year now, yet prices have not dropped in proportion. Do we expect that to change? According to articles (and other members), it may not because owners are not over leveraged as they were in the last drop. Unlike the days of ninja financing, sellers are not panicking because they can ride out the "slowdown".

But we know that crashes are cyclical, if this last year wasn't the big drop... when will it be? And what would be the catalyst?

I'm asking for anyone who is still trying to time the next bottom because as a few of us have said, it's really not something that can be done with accuracy and you really should just look at affordability and a 5-10 year ownership when you decide to buy.

 

[meccos12]

@IHO

I must have really gotten under your skin in the past since you are now attacking me for even quoting articles that you referenced. 
Do you even know the meaning of "some"???  For your reference "some" is simply an unspecified number.  It can mean 1 or 2 or 5 or 10. 

In your efforts to "debunk" my claim, you completely missed the point that the article you referenced showed that every zip code in Irvine was lower in price with the exception of two (which had some of the lowest volume), which COMPLETELY contradicted your claim that prices were flat or higher.  Oh BTW some zipcodes had a 11% drop, and some were down 6.6, some were down 5.3, some were down 3.9, some were down 2.9.  I didnt even mentioned the Tustin Ranch zip code that drop 11.4% but you will ignore that because its NOT Irvine and doesnt fit your argument. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@IHO

I must have really gotten under your skin in the past since you are now attacking me for even quoting articles that you referenced. 

Attacking? You don't seem like the sensitive type.

Do you even know the meaning of "some"???  For your reference "some" is simply an unspecified number.  It can mean 1 or 2 or 5 or 10. 

It's just 1. So say 1. The article shows it was just 1 so it's not an "unspecified number". "Some" is misleading... but maybe that's what you wanted to do.

In your efforts to "debunk" my claim, you completely missed the point that the article you referenced showed that every zip code in Irvine was lower in price with the exception of two (which had some of the lowest volume), which COMPLETELY contradicted your claim that prices were flat or higher.

You are having an issue with timing and reading. When I posted that reply to WTC, I was referring to the previous article he/she posted and my response to that. I even said that in a later post. The one that I did have access to (which was April's numbers), show that prices were flat or higher. Do you get that yet? Here is is again just for you:
https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16643.msg350962.html#msg350962

And here is the later post clarifying that:
https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16643.msg351664.html#msg351664

Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014 but IHO says it's just seasonal
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/07/...s-fall-11-countywide-pace-slowest-since-2014/

You posted something like this already.

Sales volume is down but prices are same or higher.

That was for April.  This is for May.

Oh ok.

Let?s see what the June and July articles say. Most current data shows same median sales price as last year despite over a 25% drop in volume which is surprising.

So for those who can view the May article, what?s the average price drop for Irvine?

Clear now? Or do we need Mety to translate?

Oh BTW some zipcodes had a 11% drop, and some were down 6.6, some were down 5.3, some were down 3.9, some were down 2.9.

And one was up 3.9%, and another was up 1.3%. Oh and look, sales volume was up 4 out of 8 of the Irvine zip codes, even up 11.2% in the 1 zip code that was down in median price 11%. Since you like the volume data point so much, there was a gain of 60.5% in one zip code (or should I say "some"?). Since "prices lag volume" should we assume prices will go up?

I didnt even mentioned the Tustin Ranch zip code that drop 11.4% but you will ignore that because its NOT Irvine and doesnt fit your argument. 

Actually, you said "some *Irvine* zip codes" so I didn't want to misrepresent you by bringing Tustin into it. And when you factor in Tustin and Santa Ana/North Tustin, the average median price drop goes down to 2.76% and the average sales volume drop goes down to 1.5%.

And again, this is May numbers.

So now that we have over a year behind us, maybe the "slowdown" just meant that prices will not continue to escalate at the pace they have been, but that did not necessarily mean that prices would drop significantly either.

 

[meccos12]

@IHO,

I think anyone who has been on this blog knows that you can continue non stop with your endless gibberish, so let me just summarize it here and end it.  You "debunked" my "claim" that "some" homes dropped 11% because only "one" zip code fell by that much?  Is that correct?  Ok great.  lets move on.  LOL

 

[meccos12]

Since I have no idea if there is a more recent article from OCR, here is CV"s post again quoting the last one for Irvine:

4. Irvine 92602: $1,195,000 median, down 2.9% in a year. Price rank? 12th of 83. Sales of 37 vs. 88 a year earlier, a decline of 58.0% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,267,500 median, up 3.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 24 vs. 38 a year earlier, a decline of 36.8% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $761,250 median, down 1.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 34 of 83. Sales of 28 vs. 24 a year earlier, a gain of 16.7% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $872,500 median, up 1.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 23 of 83. Sales of 14 vs. 16 a year earlier, a decline of 12.5% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $715,000 median, down 5.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 43 of 83. Sales of 61 vs. 38 a year earlier, a gain of 60.5% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $725,500 median, down 11% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 30 vs. 27 a year earlier, a gain of 11.1% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $897,500 median, down 0.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 21 of 83. Sales of 127 vs. 97 a year earlier, a gain of 30.9% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $958,000 median, down 6.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 19 of 83. Sales of 67 vs. 131 a year earlier, a decline of 48.9% in 12 months.

Only ONE Irvine zip down 11% according to that article. The next lowest, 6.6%. The average? If my math is right, down 2.9%. And average drop in volume? About 4.6%.

such a simpleton... 

 

[eyephone]

@IHO,

I think anyone who has been on this blog knows that you can continue non stop with your endless gibberish, so let me just summarize it here and end it.

Say no more. That is his calling card.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Since I have no idea if there is a more recent article from OCR, here is CV"s post again quoting the last one for Irvine:

4. Irvine 92602: $1,195,000 median, down 2.9% in a year. Price rank? 12th of 83. Sales of 37 vs. 88 a year earlier, a decline of 58.0% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,267,500 median, up 3.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 24 vs. 38 a year earlier, a decline of 36.8% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $761,250 median, down 1.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 34 of 83. Sales of 28 vs. 24 a year earlier, a gain of 16.7% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $872,500 median, up 1.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 23 of 83. Sales of 14 vs. 16 a year earlier, a decline of 12.5% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $715,000 median, down 5.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 43 of 83. Sales of 61 vs. 38 a year earlier, a gain of 60.5% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $725,500 median, down 11% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 30 vs. 27 a year earlier, a gain of 11.1% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $897,500 median, down 0.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 21 of 83. Sales of 127 vs. 97 a year earlier, a gain of 30.9% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $958,000 median, down 6.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 19 of 83. Sales of 67 vs. 131 a year earlier, a decline of 48.9% in 12 months.

Only ONE Irvine zip down 11% according to that article. The next lowest, 6.6%. The average? If my math is right, down 2.9%. And average drop in volume? About 4.6%.

such a simpleton... 

Wow, such a great comment.

So what's your point?

@IHO,

I think anyone who has been on this blog knows that you can continue non stop with your endless gibberish, so let me just summarize it here and end it.  You "debunked" my "claim" that "some" homes dropped 11% because only "one" zip code fell by that much?  Is that correct?  Ok great.  lets move on.  LOL

Ahh... the insult and then let's move on tactic. Ok... here's a better summary:

The slowdown that you and others predicted hasn't really materialized in terms of significant price drops. Do we wait another year? Is December still your magical month of when prices will catch up to volume?

And don't get me wrong, one would think that such a decrease in volume would result in larger price drops so what happened? Someone thought that SALT would have a big impact but others have said that they either paid less, paid more or paid the same so maybe that was neutral? Lower interest rates maybe? Someone predicted low rates "sailed" but that was wrong too.

And based on those OCReg articles, even volume isn't really all that much lower in Irvine/Tustin than it was the year before, so what's going on?

But let's talk now... April and May prices are less meaningful today. What is your take on current volume and prices? You hit me with Steve Thomas data a year ago, what does that data say now?

 

[zubs]

92614 according to Trulia for JUL 2019 is $775,000
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/92614-Irvine/market-trends/


why argue that 1+1 = 5.  Just let the data speak for itself.