When would be next housing Bottom?
- Thread starter OCLuvr
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
seems like a lot more rentals on the market and median rent price going down
This isn't data "as of" July, but includes sales from May, June, and July. That's why their median isn't going to line up with the OC Reg's, which only has sales within the month of July.
And yes, Corelogic pulls from property records, not the MLS so the data should be more accurate. They may also do some light filtering of transactions that don't look arms length, such as sales between relatives. That's why it takes about 3 weeks after the close of the month before they release their findings.
Redfin and Trulia use real time data, but the data is prone to shifting a bit as realtors back fill closing dates and closing prices after the month has ended.
Sure, it's not July's median but a 3 month average... but what I mean by "as of" is that it covers a more recent time period.
The other reason it differs from OCReg is because they are usually 2 months behind... this August article is reporting June numbers since last month reported May and this one's link says "first-half" so I'm assuming it's up to June.
I'm curious as to why you think real estate affiliation would have that much influence on my opinion.
You used to quote Trulia in your own posts, meccos uses data from Steve Thomas who is very affiliated with real estate, USCTrojan gives even keeled responses about the state of housing as does SGIP and Liar Loan (unsure if LL is affiliated with real estate, more brokerage side I think).
It's not like if I say Irvine housing prices will always go up, I will get tons of "clients" (if I were a realtor) from that.
If anything, as LL likes to remind us, me living in Irvine all these years makes me biased.
Did you have a bad experience with a realtor like kenkoko?
(just asking)
Isn?t it obvious that you think Irvine is selling like hot cakes. In reality it?s not. Take a look at sales data.
The answer is no regarding exp with realtors.
Please don?t bring other people into the conversation. (Your post is directed at me and then you talk smack about kenko. Shady at its best)
I think kenko is smart and has good insights.
Easy. Where did I say Irvine is selling like hotcakes? I have multiple posts asking that while volume is down, why are prices still high.
Don't be hypocritical. How many times have to tried to bring qwerty into a thread? It's topical that you are asking me about my real estate affiliation when there are members who agree with some of my opinions who are actually related to real estate and members who don't agree with my opinion but also use real estate affiliated data.
How did I talk smack about kenkoko? He was the one who said he had a bad experience with an agent, how is that an insult?
I respectfully answered your question (which you were impatient about) and then counter-asked you something and now you are back to false accusations. I guess I should have just avoided you.
1. The thing you don?t get I?m looking out for Qwerty.
2. All I got to say. If you want to tell people about Kenko Re experience don?t direct that comment to me.
So back on topic.
@Mety:
How long is that price lag going to take? Everyone said volume has been down since last March, it's been over a year... and while a Jan-June measurement shows a 14% drop in volume, the latest monthly volume is going back up.
If July/August shows a rise of over 3% in prices... do we still call it a slowdown? And to be clear, it is a slowdown in regards to prices not continuing to rise at the pace it has been, but in regards to buyers having to wait for some significant discount in pricing, it was more of a flatline.
You edited your post but now I think I know where the misunderstanding is. You thought I was calling kenkoko a bad realtor so you thought I was talking smack about him.
No, last year, kenkoko posted some things that seemed anti-realtor and then he told us a story about a realtor who was horrible.
So I was asking if you had a bad experience with a realtor [like kenkoko had], not with a [realtor like kenkoko]. Is that better? Not sure why you don't think we can refer to other members, everyone does it including you.
And you didn't answer this question:
How long it will lag? I don't know. Mid last year, I thought the prices would end up lower in 2019 than then, but it seems like it stayed pretty much the same. But the interest rate is much lower so I guess there has been an advantage of waiting for that reason.
One thing to consider is that the summer is supposed to be the hottest selling season overall, but it's not selling that much. I think the buyers are just avoiding overpriced homes altogether.
I never suggested anyone to wait. I always said buy if you love the home if you can afford. I only said (from end of 2017 to mid 2018) sell while the price and demand were still pretty high. I think the price is still high, but the demand is kind of not there as of now.
I don't think I ever asked for a good investment because I already know what is a good investment. D-E-L-A-N-O babay! jk.
Okay, seriously though, I don't think I asked that question. I might have asked what you guys think of a better buy between Irvine condo and Baker Ranch SFR. I think Irvine condo is a better buy.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
OCReg uses CoreLogic and is 2 months behind.
I trust the real estate related sites and of course USC's behind the front lines data.
No offense taken. I get asked this by a few because of my posts on TI.
I have zero industry affiliation, just spent a long time in Irvine and looking at Irvine real estate.
I'm not taking it lightly, but at the same time, I really do feel that these ups and downs are cyclical. We are due for a drop... but I don't think Irvine will see the kind of drops like the last 2 because:
1. Irvine did better than surrounding cites in that last one
2. Irvine has a higher stability of owners than the last one
As I've said, volume slowdown is obvious... price slowdown isn't at a point where people *need* to wait depending on their circumstances.
I trust the real estate related sites and of course USC's behind the front lines data.
eyephone said:
No offense taken. I get asked this by a few because of my posts on TI.
I have zero industry affiliation, just spent a long time in Irvine and looking at Irvine real estate.
I'm not taking it lightly, but at the same time, I really do feel that these ups and downs are cyclical. We are due for a drop... but I don't think Irvine will see the kind of drops like the last 2 because:
1. Irvine did better than surrounding cites in that last one
2. Irvine has a higher stability of owners than the last one
As I've said, volume slowdown is obvious... price slowdown isn't at a point where people *need* to wait depending on their circumstances.
Loco_local
Active member
zubs said:
seems like a lot more rentals on the market and median rent price going down
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Rent prices are flat or slightly down, the Trulia chart shows the average hovering around $3500/mo.
The other chart shows rentals going up (assuming available)... which is a tough metric to analyze because we all see how many new apartments have been built in Irvine in the last 3-5 years. A better graph/data point would be rental vacancy.
The other chart shows rentals going up (assuming available)... which is a tough metric to analyze because we all see how many new apartments have been built in Irvine in the last 3-5 years. A better graph/data point would be rental vacancy.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
This isn't data "as of" July, but includes sales from May, June, and July. That's why their median isn't going to line up with the OC Reg's, which only has sales within the month of July.
And yes, Corelogic pulls from property records, not the MLS so the data should be more accurate. They may also do some light filtering of transactions that don't look arms length, such as sales between relatives. That's why it takes about 3 weeks after the close of the month before they release their findings.
Redfin and Trulia use real time data, but the data is prone to shifting a bit as realtors back fill closing dates and closing prices after the month has ended.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
Sure, it's not July's median but a 3 month average... but what I mean by "as of" is that it covers a more recent time period.
The other reason it differs from OCReg is because they are usually 2 months behind... this August article is reporting June numbers since last month reported May and this one's link says "first-half" so I'm assuming it's up to June.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
I'm curious as to why you think real estate affiliation would have that much influence on my opinion.
You used to quote Trulia in your own posts, meccos uses data from Steve Thomas who is very affiliated with real estate, USCTrojan gives even keeled responses about the state of housing as does SGIP and Liar Loan (unsure if LL is affiliated with real estate, more brokerage side I think).
It's not like if I say Irvine housing prices will always go up, I will get tons of "clients" (if I were a realtor) from that.
If anything, as LL likes to remind us, me living in Irvine all these years makes me biased.
Did you have a bad experience with a realtor like kenkoko?
(just asking)
irvinehomeowner said:eyephone said:
I'm curious as to why you think real estate affiliation would have that much influence on my opinion.
You used to quote Trulia in your own posts, meccos uses data from Steve Thomas who is very affiliated with real estate, USCTrojan gives even keeled responses about the state of housing as does SGIP and Liar Loan (unsure if LL is affiliated with real estate, more brokerage side I think).
It's not like if I say Irvine housing prices will always go up, I will get tons of "clients" (if I were a realtor) from that.
If anything, as LL likes to remind us, me living in Irvine all these years makes me biased.
Did you have a bad experience with a realtor like kenkoko?
(just asking)
Isn?t it obvious that you think Irvine is selling like hot cakes. In reality it?s not. Take a look at sales data.
The answer is no regarding exp with realtors.
Please don?t bring other people into the conversation. (Your post is directed at me and then you talk smack about kenko. Shady at its best)
I think kenko is smart and has good insights.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:eyephone said:
I'm curious as to why you think real estate affiliation would have that much influence on my opinion.
You used to quote Trulia in your own posts, meccos uses data from Steve Thomas who is very affiliated with real estate, USCTrojan gives even keeled responses about the state of housing as does SGIP and Liar Loan (unsure if LL is affiliated with real estate, more brokerage side I think).
It's not like if I say Irvine housing prices will always go up, I will get tons of "clients" (if I were a realtor) from that.
If anything, as LL likes to remind us, me living in Irvine all these years makes me biased.
Did you have a bad experience with a realtor like kenkoko?
(just asking)
Isn?t it obvious that you think Irvine is selling like hot cakes. In reality it?s not. Take a look at sales data.
Easy. Where did I say Irvine is selling like hotcakes? I have multiple posts asking that while volume is down, why are prices still high.
Don't be hypocritical. How many times have to tried to bring qwerty into a thread? It's topical that you are asking me about my real estate affiliation when there are members who agree with some of my opinions who are actually related to real estate and members who don't agree with my opinion but also use real estate affiliated data.
How did I talk smack about kenkoko? He was the one who said he had a bad experience with an agent, how is that an insult?
I respectfully answered your question (which you were impatient about) and then counter-asked you something and now you are back to false accusations. I guess I should have just avoided you.
irvinehomeowner said:eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:eyephone said:
I'm curious as to why you think real estate affiliation would have that much influence on my opinion.
You used to quote Trulia in your own posts, meccos uses data from Steve Thomas who is very affiliated with real estate, USCTrojan gives even keeled responses about the state of housing as does SGIP and Liar Loan (unsure if LL is affiliated with real estate, more brokerage side I think).
It's not like if I say Irvine housing prices will always go up, I will get tons of "clients" (if I were a realtor) from that.
If anything, as LL likes to remind us, me living in Irvine all these years makes me biased.
Did you have a bad experience with a realtor like kenkoko?
(just asking)
Isn?t it obvious that you think Irvine is selling like hot cakes. In reality it?s not. Take a look at sales data.
Easy. Where did I say Irvine is selling like hotcakes? I have multiple posts asking that while volume is down, why are prices still high.
Don't be hypocritical. How many times have to tried to bring qwerty into a thread? It's topical that you are asking me about my real estate affiliation when there are members who agree with some of my opinions who are actually related to real estate and members who don't agree with my opinion but also use real estate affiliated data.
How did I talk smack about kenkoko? He was the one who said he had a bad experience with an agent, how is that an insult?
I respectfully answered your question (which you were impatient about) and then counter-asked you something and now you are back to false accusations. I guess I should have just avoided you.
1. The thing you don?t get I?m looking out for Qwerty.
2. All I got to say. If you want to tell people about Kenko Re experience don?t direct that comment to me.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
So back on topic.
@Mety:
How long is that price lag going to take? Everyone said volume has been down since last March, it's been over a year... and while a Jan-June measurement shows a 14% drop in volume, the latest monthly volume is going back up.
If July/August shows a rise of over 3% in prices... do we still call it a slowdown? And to be clear, it is a slowdown in regards to prices not continuing to rise at the pace it has been, but in regards to buyers having to wait for some significant discount in pricing, it was more of a flatline.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
You edited your post but now I think I know where the misunderstanding is. You thought I was calling kenkoko a bad realtor so you thought I was talking smack about him.
No, last year, kenkoko posted some things that seemed anti-realtor and then he told us a story about a realtor who was horrible.
So I was asking if you had a bad experience with a realtor [like kenkoko had], not with a [realtor like kenkoko]. Is that better? Not sure why you don't think we can refer to other members, everyone does it including you.
And you didn't answer this question:
irvinehomeowner said:
irvinehomeowner said:
How long it will lag? I don't know. Mid last year, I thought the prices would end up lower in 2019 than then, but it seems like it stayed pretty much the same. But the interest rate is much lower so I guess there has been an advantage of waiting for that reason.
One thing to consider is that the summer is supposed to be the hottest selling season overall, but it's not selling that much. I think the buyers are just avoiding overpriced homes altogether.
I never suggested anyone to wait. I always said buy if you love the home if you can afford. I only said (from end of 2017 to mid 2018) sell while the price and demand were still pretty high. I think the price is still high, but the demand is kind of not there as of now.
eyephone said:
I don't think I ever asked for a good investment because I already know what is a good investment. D-E-L-A-N-O babay! jk.
Okay, seriously though, I don't think I asked that question. I might have asked what you guys think of a better buy between Irvine condo and Baker Ranch SFR. I think Irvine condo is a better buy.