What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>ipo -- here is an example of a closed sale from December, on a property I had fallen in love with after touring:</p>

<p>1 Upland, Northpark...3030 Sq Ft. </p>

<p>- Was listed for $1,199,000 at time of escrow</p>

<p>- Last 2 prior sales were 4/6/04 for $1,100,000, and 12/20/01 for $580k.</p>

<p>- Closed on 12/20/07 for $1,060,000 --- so I guess this is a pre-2004 rollback, and a sale price nearly 12% off asking price. </p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=969831">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=969831</a></p>

<p>I'm very interested to start seeing what the final sale prices are on the properties you profie. My guess is that sale prices will be (like this one) more than 10% off the asking prices. This gives me hope.</p>
 
<p>Yeah CK, 1 Upland was a very nice place. I checked it out too. My wife wanted it bad. I had to say "keep dreaming honey". Not too keen on the location though. Backing to Portola and siding to Culver. That intersection will be pretty busy years down the road.</p>

<p>I can't believe 6 Malibu still sits at $1.2M list with the Upland comp on the books. 277 DOM, come on people. It's not 2006! </p>

<p>We were close to making a run at 19 Sunnyvale but it was $50K or so out of my comfort range. Thought about 44 Dinuba too, but the secondary bedrooms were just too small. Nice location across from the park though... I do like Northpark, just don't think it is ever going to get cheap enough for us. </p>
 
....yeah, you might have needed to put up with some street noise, but you sure got a nice yard as a tradeoff. 9,000 sq ft yard, IIRC. I had it all figured out --- the street noise would be drown out by strategically placed Bose outdoor speakers. And because of the unique placement of the yard, you would never bother the neighbors with the music. If a house ever fit every spec I was looking for (except for the $$ part), it was 1 Upland....*sigh*
 
<p>No new escrows to report, but I did add an inventory tracker to my site. Will update on a weekly basis. </p>

<p>Irvine just crested back over 1,000 units on the market. It has been in the 900's since November. Peak inventory in Irvine since I've been watching was around 1,400 units.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a></p>
 
I also had my eye on 1 Upland. It was the location that did it for me. What put me off was the fact that they put the air conditioning on to drown out the noise from the road. When the realtors have to stoop to tricks like that then you know the house has problems.





There was another house in tustin fields that did a similar trick by playing music
 
<em>You jackin' my thread 123?!





</em>Dude... chill out. This isn't <em>your </em>thread, this isn't <em>your </em>forums, and this is a place for anyone, to comment about anything they want, anywhere they want. So... unless you are paying for this thread, renting is cheaper and makes more sense, but you can own the space if you like. The monthly cost is higher, but you don't want to be priced out forever. So give it a break, and chill out. You may have thought acpme was just being rude, and ignoring him would mean that your point would be ignored, but his point was spot on.





To answer Irvine123's (someone who has always been respectful) questions...





First what I find amazing is the 2719 distressed properties $1mil and above. SA and Anaheim only have 39 properties more than that, and I bet a few are in SA, 92705 and parts of Floral Park.


<em>


a. is the worst over for the the homes under $500K, and between 500K and 750k?





</em>Judging by the foreclosures I am seeing, this will just get worse and worse. SA and Anaheim are getting just hammered. I mean, it is really, really bad, and even in the last bust it didn't happen this fast.





<em>b. I think we can probably all agree that distressed properties numbers are likely to increase for the one million plus range from t his point on. My question is how bad it will get.





</em>I have been seeing more and more $1mil properties in trouble. I am talking about nice homes, in nice areas, and newer too, not just the fraud and flippers in trouble. I mean... crap... there was one in <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=25426385">VP today</a>. The zestimate is way too high, but back to the bank for $959k is a comp killer. Last sold in 94 for $456k... looks like the housing ATM got shut off. Damn... that is a bigger house, and a bigger lot than mine. Idiots, just idiots.
 
<p>Hey nutter, I mean graph, I was just kidding on the thread jack. You sensed not the tongue-in-cheek? Hopefully 123 realized that...</p>

<p>I could give a crap what gets posted here, unless someone like acpme is trying to tell me my own personal calcs for my own personal purchase decision are wrong... Property taxes at 1.8%, still makes me cringe when I see that.</p>
 
Hey knife catcher, er I mean housingplaya, I read your tongue and cheek, and you seem to be some new found housing guru, so I apologize.





If acpme's tax calculation makes you cringe, then maybe you should talk to an accountant. Because, your calculation for secret garden has a tax base of 1.36%. If you calculate the 3% prop 13 increase, then in about ten years you are at a 1.8% tax base. Hey... housing will go up with inflation right? I'm sure that is what the over 2000 people will receive their NOD this month thought. Oh... and, don't forget mello roos is not a tax write off, so unless you want an audit, I would suggest you factor that into your tax break, er lack there of.





Of course, you don't have to listen to me or acpme, when we have the tax returns to prove we know what the tax breaks are. Wait... have you ever owned a home? Sorry, I don't want to assume, and I thought maybe you knew something I didn't. BTW, my accountant is awesome, knows how to work it, and an audit is about as rare as someone buying a home in this market, maybe even better. But, you seem to know what you are doing, you have this whole going into escrow thing down, so maybe I am just a nutter. And, don't worry, it's not like acpme and I lived through the last bust here, so it's not like we speak of experience.





You seem confident that we are near the bottom. So... are you going to have the guts to post the rough details of your purchase, or are you going to be like all the other knife catchers, and... chirp, chirp? What do you have to be afraid of? I post homes going back to the bank in my neighborhood, so what would be the difference? You wouldn't get upset, if this thread stays alive after you purchase, and it shows homes going into escrow for less than you paid would you? You wouldn't get upset, if I continue to post more foreclosures, than sales would you?
 
<p>I don't think IPO thinks we're near a bottom.</p>

<p>I think IPO thinks housing has softened up enough he can get enough of a deal he doesn't care so long as he and the Mrs. like the property. He can afford it and has a plan.</p>

<p>I'm kind of in the same boat, but I doubt we're looking at the same properties or the same prices.</p>
 
<p>Indeed, vaseline, I don't think we're near the bottom, but I don't care too much if I buy a little early...</p>

<p>Nutter - I'll ignore most of your cheese with a couple of exceptions:</p>

<p>"Oh... and, don't forget mello roos is not a tax write off, so unless you want an audit, I would suggest you factor that into your tax break, er lack there of."</p>

<p>This blanket statement is false. Some mello roos are deductible. Check with your tax advisor. Unfortunately, since I am an accountant, that has been preparing a number of personal and small business returns during this lovely time of year, I have to keep current with tax laws myself and have no trusted advisor to speak with about such matters.</p>

<p>"Wait... have you ever owned a home?"</p>

<p>Yup, sitting in my owned Irvine home that I pay property taxes on right now. My property tax percentage is 1.5% of original purchase price after seven years of home ownership. My home's value has fallen by approximately 22% since late 2006. You get it? I own a home... If I buy, I will own a home... I am just exchanging one falling asset for another. Hard to be a knife catcher when I'm already getting slashed up.</p>

<p>"So... are you going to have the guts to post the rough details of your purchase, or are you going to be like all the other knife catchers, and... chirp, chirp? What do you have to be afraid of? I post homes going back to the bank in my neighborhood, so what would be the difference? You wouldn't get upset, if this thread stays alive after you purchase, and it shows homes going into escrow for less than you paid would you? You wouldn't get upset, if I continue to post more foreclosures, than sales would you?"</p>

<p>Sure, when I buy, I will sing it to the hills, post all the pertinent details, write a treatise if you want. Got no problem with that. I wouldn't care one bit if the market kept on falling and people were buying the same house I buy for less money. Good for them... Those differences will all wash out over the next 20-30 years I own the place. By all means, keep posting your foreclosure and sales information. I personally find it very informative and useful data. The baseless personal attacks, I could do without, but it's a free world so keep on doing whatever makes you happy.</p>
 
<p>GRAPHRIX, </p>

<p>"First what I find amazing is the 2719 distressed properties $1mil and above"</p>

<p>Graphrix, you read it wrong...the total number of distress properties above $1 million is 98, the total number of inventory on the market is 2719. That is 3.6% of the total inventory. </p>

<p>What I found interesting is:</p>

<p>a. of the 2719 inventory, 941 or nearly 30% of them are above $ 2million with only seven distress properties.</p>

<p>Maybe you have different experiences, I know more than a handful of people have $2 million plus homes. And believe me,they are all solid finanically ( no i didn't see their w-2s, but you can see their income on Proxy statements). I am sure there are flippers in that range (i.e. shandy canyon), but once the distress properties are out, most people i believe can hold to it and not selling?</p>

<p>b. there are 1778 inventory homes listed between $1 and $2 million, 91 of them (5%) are distress properties. </p>

<p>I wish have the city breakdown of this 91 homes. I believe this number will get a lot worst, maybe double or triple to 300 maybe? but I am having a hard time to believe it is going to go to 500 to 1000. As bad as the job growths are here in OC, there are still a lot of high paying jobs. </p>

<p>c. With builders new homes inventory in each pricing point has already reduced to a negligible amount right now, the inventory on MLS reflects the entire amount of inventory. so anyone wants to buy one, their choices are largely limited to the resale market. Someone told me that during the last down turn, the bulders have a lot more inventories than this time around. Most of the builders put their brakes on during the late 2006.</p>
 
<p>Graph -- While I appreciate all your posts, sometimes you come off as a little condecending to those of us who unfortunately did not have either the means or foresight to buy a home pre-2002 --- and are therefore priced out right now. I sit here at 36 years old, with a 4 year old daughter and a household income twice the much discussed Irvine median. I have a great career in So Cal, and don't want to leave the area as family is here. So I rent an IAC crapshack because I cannot yet reconcile the price of ownership to renting. But I WILL NOT sit on my hands for the next 5 years waiting for the bottom of the market while life passes my family by, while continuing to be stuck in a transient renter lifestyle. People can pound their chests all they want about how great renting is -- sorry, that was great when I was single, but no longer. </p>

<p>Yep, I'll be one of those knife catchers in 2009 --- that's as long as I can wait. I am fully aware of the fact that whatever I buy this time next year will be worth less in 2012 than it is in 2009. But I can live with that, as my reconcilation is that the cost is an investment in life. Certainly I wish I had bought up in San Jose when I accepted a career rotation there in 2001. I could have sold it when I came back down to SoCal in 2005, and I'd be a homeowner right now --- just like you. But I didn't, and shame on me. </p>

<p>You and others out here have helped me a great deal --- I was ready to buy in 2006 and pulled back after starting to read IHB. Waiting will have helped me to get a much better deal, maybe not the best deal --- but I'm not so worried about the BEST deal. I'm worried about moving forward with life. So thanks for your help to date, and please have some sympathy for those of us who just want to have the comfort of what you have with a home ---- unfortunately I won't be able to get that home on the best financial terms.</p>
 
<p>CK - man, you making me cry! I dont think you're doing too bad at all.</p>

<p>To the final wizards, the below is just a thought so please dont disect the number...</p>

<p>Let's say you wanted to buy a 1mil house in 2009 but settled for a 700K in 2009 and the same house you bought can be had for 500K in 2013. In 2013, you want to upgrade and move to a house that would have costed 1mil in 2009, but in 2013 is 750K. You sell your current house for 500K and put in another 250K for the new home.</p>

<p>Now, what's the difference in waiting here? It depends on when you cash out!</p>

<p>If you live your life trying to time the market by selling and buying, then you might come out on top the rest of your life. But with a family like CK's, who would be willing to do that? If you plan to buy, live, sell, buy, live, sell, etc continuously! It will even out because home prices will go up and down and all around.</p>

<p>BUT! In this special situation that we've had these past few years, it is worth it to wait. I dont see buying in 2009 will be a problem at all.</p>
 
<p><em>"Let's say you wanted to buy a 1mil house in 2009 but settled for a 700K in 2009 and the same house you bought can be had for 500K in 2013. In 2013, you want to upgrade and move to a house that would have costed 1mil in 2009, but in 2013 is 750K. You sell your current house for 500K and put in another 250K for the new home.</em></p>

<p><em>Now, what's the difference in waiting here?"</em></p>

<p>The difference is the extra 200K that you will still owe the bank on your lost equity from your 2009 purchase vs the 2013 sale. Instead of the new 2013 home costing you an extra 250K, it will cost you 250K <strong>PLUS</strong> the 200K in lost equity that you owe to the bank.


</p>
 
"The difference is the extra 200K that you will still owe the bank on your lost equity from your 2009 purchase vs the 2013 sale. Instead of the new 2013 home costing you an extra 250K, it will cost you 250K PLUS the 200K in lost equity that you owe to the bank."



Let's say you can afford the lost. Let's say person A did this transaction and person B waited till 2013 to buy at 250K less.

They both keep the home till 2020 when the same home costs 250K more. Person A has the home price at the buying point.

Person B made 250K.



As you can see, the money isnt realized until you sell and decide to time the buying and selling. If you keep rolling in from house to house,

you really dont absorb any LOSS. Your only mistake is when you buy something you cannot afford the payments on.



And there are many decisions you make in life between buying and selling homes. They have to deal with savings, spending on

stuff for your family etc. They dont all center around the single purchase of a home. If it does, then that means you cannot afford to buy.

So dont buy until you can afford it! And if you can afford it, you can buy any freakin time you want!
 
irvine123,





Hehehe... oops... I totally misread your post. I even looked at trying to clean it up, so that it was easier to read, but I realized I would just make more of a mess.





Anyway, I agree, I know many people in the $1mil or $2mil plus range that can afford their home. Like you, I don't need to see their tax returns, but we know that they can. However, I do not think Steve's numbers paint an accurate picture. IIRC all he can do is search keywords, so if the agent and buyer do not put those keywords in, then his searches would never show them. One trick I love to hate is, the corporate owned home, and yes I know that it is owned by the bank, as the title proves that.





I really do think you are underestimating the number of higher end homes being "distressed". Today at the the Santa Ana court house, 25 homes went back to the bank or sold, and 6 of them would be in the $1mil range, or 24% of them. One happened to be in Irvine, and there was three other Irvine homes that went back to the bank. I didn't see a post on homes going into escrow today, so that can't be a good sign. Oh... ouch, one was in Quail Hill that sold in 2004 for $700k, but went back to the bank for $663k. Also, one was a $2mil+ minimum bid for a home in Coto, and it went back to the bank. Really, it has become a lot uglier than I ever expected on the foreclosures, and I am starting to get worried. I will be the first one to let everyone know, when I think they are slowing. Check the foreclosure thread for updates, I know, I need to better about updating it.





I am not sure on the builders hitting the breaks harder this time. Last quarter, there were 1087 new homes sold, and the worst Q4 was 1992, when there were 892 new homes sold. But, there were only 3911 resale homes sold this last quarter, but in 1992 there were 6172 resale homes sold. So, IMO there was a lot more demand then, than there is now. I would have to compare the numbers of 2006 to 91/92, to see if this is more likely. To be honest, you could be right. I need to get that info in a spreadsheet, so maybe this is the motivation I need to get it done.
 
Ipoplaya,



I noticed that one more home on your list of homes in escrow has fallen out of escrow :-)! 7 Boone and 63 Burlingame have fallen out of escrow from your list.



What do we make of it? Currently there are at least three properties on your list that are either approaching 30 days on escrow or are 10 days over 30 days! To me this means that properties are not going through smoothly in escrow and there are some issues. Do you care to guess what some of these reasons might be? Perhaps the buyer re-considered or perhaps did not qualify for financing (would seem odd though not impossible).



Cheers,



PurpleHaze
 
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