What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

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Anonyomus, I was just telling my friends yesterday that that is just how I view my house sometimes. I NEVER compare owning to rental, as rental only becomes a choice when I have no other choices (while still keep a balanced budget/saving plan). I track / compare everything on EXCEL, but I never bothered to do the rent vs. own comparision as owning my own places for me worth the extra several thousand a month. I am sure many peeple won't agree with this view. But it is a waste of time to argue which view is correct and wrong, as just like buying car, people has difference taste, different budget, and different view of life.





I am interested to know how most people on this blog defines a "bull". I guess if you are buying, or you don't believe the house price will go back to 1999/2000 price, or you believe housing in longer term keep up with inflation in general, then you are a bull.
 
<p>If you buy a new or relatively new or well maintained home, there is not much fixing to do.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>The trick is to move on when your house gets old - just like a car!! haha</p>
 
<p>Two new escrows from yesterday I found:</p>

<p><a href="http://members.cox.net/ipoplaya/">http://members.cox.net/ipoplaya/</a></p>

<p>The Nebraska place is around the corner from a unit on Utah featured on the blog. Calls by some of our resident ultra bears were for these places to sell in the $400s... Somehow I don't think they had to take that little.</p>
 
Definition of Bull - The traditional definition of a bull is someone who expects prices to rise. In the strict sense there would be very few if any bulls on this site. I think we have 'most bears' here with some 'indifferent bears' and then some bears who see nothing fundamentally wrong with valuations other than the downturn being a part of the current economic cycle. That is just me though. Thanks for bringing this into the spotlight, Irvine123.
 
waiting - the 10/16/07 transaction was probably the foreclosure. If you see a house sell, and then go right back on to MLS within a couple of months, it's likely an REO. Given the no name realtor and no pics, I'd definitely think it was bank-owned...
 
<p>Scary stuff in that Oil Drum link, Anon....</p>

<p><em>Lower—maybe much lower—demand over a significant period of time (a few years) masks the global production peak but does not help solve it. When the global economy does finally emerge from a recession, the <strong>same old problems will still be with us </strong>but mitigation efforts will have been crippled. Furthermore, most people will be persuaded that the peak was a fiction due to the low prices they have just seen during the recession. In the meantime, however, the world will still have been consuming oil—large amounts of it—thus draining existing production but without developing new supply as the low prices put many projects on hold. </em></p>

<p>That 0% financing on a Chevy Tahoe might not seem like such a good idea after all. </p>
 
ipoplaya,





Thanks for starting this thread. It is great to see what is actually happening out there, and I hope you are able to update us on the closings with the final sales price. I sincerely mean it, even if there is some snarkiness below.





Just FYI, <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/04/already-gone/">the property at 9 Utah</a> is scheduled for the foreclosure auction on 1/24, and the NTS amount is $714k. That NTS amount is really high for what the loan data shows, so I would imagine it is an option ARM. With the second on there, I am guessing that the minimum bid will be close to the NTS amount, and that it will go back to the bank.





There isn't that much else in 92606, except a few condos on Ladrillo Aisle, but 92602 and 92620 are more than making up for it. <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=25521641">14 Carlyle in 92620</a>, just went back to the bank for $678.5k, it had a NTS of $732.6k, and it sold for $855k in 10/06. This is a 2500 sqft. 4/3 home. If you are serious, and if I were you, I would find out who the lien holder is. Then, I would call them, and work my way up the ladder of their loss mit department and offer them $500k. Yeah, yeah, I know... I am just one the nuttier bears here, but if it is a scratch and dent lender, or an IB like Goldman, who bought some of these toxic pools for 30-40 cents on the dollar from BK'd lenders, then they still make a profit at that price.





I need to update the foreclosure thread, because <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=54978899">55 Granada in 92602</a>, just went back to the bank for $630.7k, and it sold for $860k in 2/07. Must be fraud, because the comps on zillow are way below that, but even the zestimate is $778k. Even if it is fraud, there are plenty more coming.
 
<p>Hey graph. If one can believe the realtor representing the owners at 9 Utah, I can they will get it into escrow before it goes to auction. He suggested that an offer above $725K would stave off auction proceedings and I'm guessing they probably have had as such. I'd bet, only a small sum though, that 9 Utah gets sold before too long.</p>

<p>West Irvine does seem like it is REO central along with older Northwood and to an extent Northpark. I tried chasing properities (had my Realtytrac subscription) that were NOD or already foreclosed on back in the summer. It was pain. Didn't have the patience... </p>
 
ipoplaya,





You may be right on 9 Utah, we will have to see what happens. It still shows up on ZipRealty, and when a home goes into escrow, it usually doesn't show up on Zip after that. If it does or doesn't go into escrow by the 24th, it still could get postponed. Personally, I think it will go back to the bank. It really isn't that great of a home, and homes without a wow factor are not selling.





Sorry to hear you wasted your money on RealtyTrac. There are better services out there, like foreclosure radar, and there are ways to get it for free. Back in the summer though, was not the best time to be looking for foreclosure properties, because they have gone up, and they will continue to go up as the credit crunch of August starts to pan out. Just wait until the January NOD numbers come out, records are meant to be broken, and they will be. I do highly recommend you work on finding patience. I mean, you are seriously interested in buying a home, so I would think taking your time to find the right home, with that kind of financial commitment, would be important. That, and finding a better deal would be important as well.





Good luck with your search, and keep the updates coming.
 
<p>I went back into December on 2000+ sf places and updated my listing. Should start seeing some closing prices before too long...</p>

<p>Moved to another site since I ran out of space @ Cox.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a> now.</p>
 
Thanks for the list! Do you have a price limit set on the properties you're searching, or only by 2000+ sq ft? I'm a bit more interested in what's moving in the 1.1-1.5M range.
 
<p>Thanks, awesome list. Two things:</p>

<p>1. go to google.com/adsense and sign up, you ought to make some ad revenue from the site. Or better, go to amazon.com to become an associate and link some real estate books.</p>

<p>2. Are you planning to list price per sq. ft. in there? Would be nice to search the columns by that.</p>
 
<p>That's the plan anon. The things I want to see are how much off of list are things selling for and the price per square as it relates to what can be discerned about the condition of the home based off MLS description and pics.</p>

<p>Will add to the data as it comes in... Still trying to teach myself how to do stuff in FrontPage.</p>
 
ipoplaya,





thanks for the totally rude response to my post. i wasnt trying to call you out but simply mentioning i thought your numbers were optimistic. if you check back, you mentioned a "conventional 30-yr 5.5%" loan. by that i assumed 30-yr fixed and that's what i used. but now you're saying you meant interest-only. ok fine... and btw, i do believe principal pymts are a housing expense even though it's going back into your home. if you forget to contribute to your IRA, they don't take your retirement account away. but thats just my opinion.





anyways, if i assumed the wrong loan type, then you can correct me. if i assumed mello roos and there is none, then you can correct me. if you disagree with my back of the envelope calc by $200, by all means, feel free to correct me. at the end of the day, we're just two people discussing hypothetical transactions on the internet. you can keep the other comments to yourself though, despite the fact this is "your thread."
 
<p> </p>

<p>Anyone interested in 14 Carlysle should not offer anything more than 500K. The property was bought at the peak in '05 for 750K, the flipper spent supposedly "100K" to turn this 70's POS into a mandatory "meditarrenean" look, by adding "stone facade" and "ballasters" to the walkway. Now it looks like a POS, that will require some demolition work. I would figure on adding 100K to making the place look decent again. I don't know how this flipper was able to pawn it off in "06 for 850K. Must be another case of fraud.</p>
 
<p>I have no problems with people being optimistic about their houses but I do want to correct the notion that people on IHB are "anti-houses." I believe that most everyone on this board believe that buying a home is a good thing in a normal environment. Unfortunately, this is not a normal environment. </p>

<p>If you find a house that you want to live in for the next 7 to 10 years, have the downpayment, can get a good loan, and do not care about whether your house appreciates in value, then please by all means, buy the place. However, if you do not have all of these criteria, think hard. </p>
 
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