What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I actually work with someone who owns 8 houses and is looking at more. I've told her before that she was making a major mistake, but to no avail. So now I just smile and laugh to myself when I hear her talk about the opportunities that exist now.
 
<p>Yeah, I'd think a juicy 1000 pt. plunge in the Dow might make people re-think their purchase plans. </p>

<p>I can't see how mortgage rates will not shoot through the roof beginning tomorrow...</p>

<p>Heck, I might just have to let my ARM reset for a year... The 1-year CMT could be at 1% by May when my new rate would be re-calculated. My reset would make my rate go from 3.875% to 3.75%... If Prime gets down to 4% like it did in 2003, my HELOC will be at 3.25%. Amazing.</p>
 
"I'd think a juicy 1000 pt. plunge in the Dow might make people re-think their purchase plans."



I know many on this board want the market to crash, so the house price can come back down. Just remember there is side implications for that too: house price might come down 50%, but you might still can't afford it as you might not have a job. Be careful what you wish for.
 
<em>Dow is not going to come down 1000 pt tomorrow.</em>





I don't recall what the rules are, but if there is a certain % loss at any given time, the NYSE is halted for a period of time and/or closed for the rest of the day.





EDIT: <a href="http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html">Ah, here it is.</a>
 
<p>"Dow is not going to come down 1000 pt tomorrow"</p>

<p>I didn't say tomorrow... I was thinking maybe over the course of this week or the next.</p>
 
<p>"I know many on this board want the market to crash, so the house price can come back down. Just remember there is side implications for that too: house price might come down 50%, but you might still can't afford it as you might not have a job. Be careful what you wish for."</p>

<p>If house prices fell 50%, the mortgage payment I would have would be less than my monthly unemployment benefits. As long as the wife kept her teaching gig (the cuts would have to be pretty deep to pink slip a special ed teacher with nine years experience) we'd be solvent and living in a much bigger and nicer house. I could embrace stay-at-home daddydom for a couple of years! </p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">More kool-aid in Northwood Pointe, 17 Plumbago hits the market at $1.499M</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Looks like it’s situated close to Portola.</p>

I received a phone call regarding 3 Raines in Northpark Square, 2,850sq.feet asking $800K. Agent said it’s a short sale, was wondering if anyone has seen it or thoughts
 
3 Raines sold on 11/08/2006 for $1,040,000. Financing was 100%. The house is a Plan 1 in Lennar's Manchester tract. Lot size is 5,144 sq ft and it's in an interior, cul-de-sac location. When it was on the market, before, it had a few upgrades and the condition was okay. Not sure about now?
 
<p>Yeah ten, places like Plumbago are just listing at comparable lists. It doesn't seem to matter to people that things aren't selling at those high lists.</p>

<p>I haven't seen Raines, but they paid $1.04M at the bubblicious peak of November 2006. If i use my handy IPO-Shiller index values, <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht">www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht</a>, it would appear NP Square is going at about 220-225 index which would put the CMV of Raines at around $830Kish.</p>
 
<p> </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">IW,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks for your response and info. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">$800K seems attractive and may warrant a closer look. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Similar square footage, 9 Poway, in Northpark is currently at $1.198M. </p>

<p>That’s a difference of $398K, big chunk of change!</p>
 
<p>"has the bear stearns blowup affected escrows?"</p>

<p>Not that I have seen. Pretty much everything I have is staying in backup or pending. I did see one that went into escrow that is indicating "withdrawn" status now. That should mean escrow fell through and they elected to go off market after...</p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Hey Ipop,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks for putting together and posting the IPO-Shiller index. Another great resource</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Hate to ask, but I would really appreciate if you walk me thru how you arrived at the $830K valuation. I know, USC grad here. </p>

Should’ve paid more attention in finance class. So many coeds, so little time.
 
<p>No pics of Raines on the last listing, but here are pics of another Manchester plan 1 if you are interested ten:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/manchplan1.mht">http://www.ipoplaya.com/manchplan1.mht</a></p>

<p>Wow, they actually got quite an under-market price when they bought it in November 2006. It's worth way more than $830K today. Same plan sold for $1.08M on 8/8/05. Declines would put that one down to $950K or so. 6 Raines, also same plan, sold for $720K back in Feb 2003. Actually, any way you look at it, $800K for that house would be a good deal.</p>

<p>In terms of calculating the CMV via Shiller index, I take what I believe to be today's index value for Northpark Square, 220, and divide it by the index value during the month of previous purchase. For 3 Raines, the index in November 2006 was 273. That produces a percentage you can then apply to the last sales price to come up with an approximate value for today. In theory, 3 Raines should be worth 80.5% of the previous bubble peak purchase if they paid a market price. I think they paid well below market at the time though...</p>

<p>If you consider the recent closes on Ravendale and Galena, the place is probably worth $900K.</p>
 
<p>Somerton place just dropped to $1.29M. $200K price reduction in less than a month... Now that appears to be a motivated seller.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1508375">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1508375</a></p>

<p>Boy that is gonna piss off the neighbors all sitting north of $400 per sf.</p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Nice to finally see some decent reductions over there.</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">No doubt this will hurt 17 Plumbago, which just listed at $1.499M </p>

<p>The guy over in Rosecrest at 1 New Dawn is riding the market down as well.</p>

<p>Still a litte early to fire in my offer of $250/ft. I'd like to steal that one at '02 pricing.</p>
 
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