What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
1470 Voyager is in foreclosure too. It is scheduled for the auction on 4/2, and the NTS is for $1.067mil.





Is this tract built by William Lyon?
 
<p class="MsoNormal">I couldn’t agree more. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">The battle has already commenced in those areas and it’s going to get ugly.</p>

The map you posted drives the point home; there are some very nice places just situated in a less than ideal location.
 
Re: 29 Lynchfield



Inside Tract lists this as a Plan 1, that largest of which is 2,363 sq ft per the builder, so I believe the 2,650 sq ft to be an estimate including the loft. The source of the sq ft was also listed as an estimate.
 
<p>"Re: 29 Lynchfield Inside Tract lists this as a Plan 1, that largest of which is 2,363 sq ft per the builder, so I believe the 2,650 sq ft to be an estimate including the loft. The source of the sq ft was also listed as an estimate"</p>

<p>Yeah, I think you are correct IrvineWorker. Based on the position of the fireplace, it would have to be a Lexington Plan 1. That isn't what the MLS says... The plan 1 Lex's have the fireplace in the corner whereas the plan 2 Lex's have them on the in the middle of the wall.</p>

<p>I think 2,650 would probably be about right as a loft above the living/dining would likely add around 300sf. Sheez, that puts this at much higher per sf cost... </p>
 
Have you considered Almeria in Tustin Ranch? I know that tract is in the older section of TR, but they have nice layouts with a lot of square footage and I think the pricing is reasonable on a cost per sf basis. Back in 1989, before the last housing bubble, people were camping out for weeks to buy in that tract. Prices were going up 10-20K per month, which was a lot, at the time. In early 1989, there was an article in the LA Times about the people trying to get one of the homes. It's pretty funny in retrospect.
 
<p>Updated a couple of charts with Feb numbers:</p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/irvmoinv.jpg" /></p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/ocmoinv.jpg" /></p>
 
<p>Holy guacamole, I found a ton of new escrows... </p>

<p>9 places in the last two days going under contract. Wow! </p>

<p>At that rate, we'd sell through our Irvine inventory in a little over three months.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a></p>
 
<em>At that rate, we'd sell through our Irvine inventory in a little over three months.</em>





Assuming the rate of properties coming on market stays the same. I don't know about you, but my Zip notifications have been going nuts this week. I think the arrival of the Spring selling season is here.
 
<p>Yeah, Eva, my alerts have seem to be picking up too. It looks like there is finally some inventory starting to hit the market.</p>

<p>Last year as of this date, 921 units on the market in Irvine. Today, 924... </p>

<p>From the end of January through 3/15/07, Irvine inventory increased by approximately 110 units. This year over the same period, it has declined by 16 units. Seems like the discretionary sellers are sitting the sidelines... </p>
 
ioplaya,



from the data I have seen, i completely agree with you that it appears that the discretionary sellers are indeed sitting on the sideline for now. At least those who don't have to sell have finally realized that this is a bad time to sell, and why bother to waste their own time. I track several tracks in irvine, ladera ranch homes bigger than 3500 sq ft and aliso viejo homes bigger than 3000 sq ft. I have noticed that the specific size in ladera ranch i have been tracking the inventory has shrink to the lowest I have seen in the last two years: 34 vs. 90 plus last summer. Same goes with Aliso Viejo.
 
One thing to bear in mind is the composition of the inventory and what that means for sales and prices. Last year, there was very little must-sell inventory on the market, and as a consequence, what was available was priced too high and it did not sell. This ballooned inventories throughout the county. This year, the REOs are a much larger percentage of the inventory, and these properties <em>will </em>be marked down until they are sold. The impact of this ought to be an increase in sales volumes and a decrease in the "months of supply" indicator. This is where the conventional interpretation of the "months of supply" indicator can lead people astray. Typically, if the months of supply is small, and sales volumes are increasing, it is a sign of a bull market as buyers are getting more aggressive and absorbing the available inventory. In a declining market, this same phenomenon can indicate a "fire sale." If inventory is being cleared as prices are declining, it is a sign that <em>sellers </em>are getting more aggressive because they want to liquidate while prices are still inflated. In short, we may see the "months of supply" indicate a healthy market while the market is anything but healthy.
 
Yesterday I found a home in North Tustin that I really was interested in but when I called up the realtor, they told me that just the previous evening the owners decided to take the home off the market because selling conditions were worsening. I said, what if I could offer their full asking price and have a preapproval letter from my lender? Nope, wouldn't even show the home. Blah.
 
Talking about inventory. How long does the foreclosure process typically take? I subscribe to Realtytrac and it looks like there is a 1000+ homes in Irvine in pre-foreclosure, bank owned, or going to be auctioned. Remember all those mortgage resets? Well, like it or not, the increase in mortgage rates will definitely move those strikes higher -- so do you think we see the supply in May? I heard the foreclosure process takes like 4 months in Cali. Anyone know?
 
etheran,





You will find a detailed discussion here: <a title="Permanent Link to WOT 3-1-2008" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/03/01/wot-3-1-2008/" linkindex="7" set="yes">WOT 3-1-2008</a>
 
<p>"owners decided to take the home off the market because selling conditions were worsening"</p>

<p>Did you ask the realtor what would get their clients to relist?</p>

<p>Because this market isn't going to recover anytime soon.</p>
 
<p>I had a neighbor once who was willing to sell only if he got his price and was perfectly willing to live in his house indefinitely until he got his price. His house was on the market for at least 3 years, and maybe longer than that. After quite a long time, he was gone, so I guess he got his price.</p>

<p>Surely this can only apply to a small minority of sellers.</p>
 
"Did you ask the realtor what would get their clients to relist?"



No, I was too surprised at her reluctance to show the home even when I stated that the asking price seemed reasonable to me. The realtor did say the owners were considering relisting "in the Fall" when they thought things would be better. :D
 
no_vas - It isn't just Bear Stearns. It is all the investment banks, and all the credit which is disappearing right now. Just who is going to write mortgages right now? And who in the world is going to borrow to buy a home tomorrow as they see their net worth disappearing before their eyes?
 
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