usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Not for the weak of heart but I don't see a lot of risk in the following trade I made earlier this morning...I sold 30 uncovered Jan 30 ROH puts @ $.40/call (while the stock was trading at around $60).
Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread
- Thread starter usctrojanman29_IHB
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usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231296804]IMO thats the whole reason that the market is staying put and slightly rising. The market always prices everything in...it already has been pricing in the 775B stimulus and a bit on the excitement that Obama will finally be president. This is why I'm starting to shift my portfolio. I think we rally a bit more, probably till S&P hits 1K and then we are going to go further lower than we were before. I can't say 1K is for sure, thats why I have to watch the technicals very close. Once I have several indicators signaling a shift, I will move very quickly and swiftly.
Aside from trading...
Europe is contracting, Japan is contracting and so is China. This isn't a local issue its a global issue that will have major consequences. Have you seen the economic news the past 2 weeks? It is beyond horrific. Each time it gets worse and worse as things deteriorate, yet we stay put and even rally a bit. Remember when industrials fell to a 30 year low like a week or so ago? I think the numeber was like 32 and they were expecting a slight improvement from a previous month of like 45 from 42. Yet the market was up 258 pts or so? Come on now...people are already drunk and drinking more...
People are still happy coming from X-mas and hoping that the New Year will bring new fortunes...give it till end of this month or maybe mid Feb, before firms are slapped with disappointing earnings, leading to more job losses, to forclosures and ARM resests definately not helping anyone.
Cheer the low rates? Go ahead...isn't low rates what got us into this mess? Is the Fed that stupid to combat the problem using the problem? This isn't a snake bite...
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
So I will position myself accordingly. If I'm right, I'll profit...If I'm wrong, we won't have a war and everybody will be happy. It's almost a win win.</blockquote>
I'm waiting in the wings to go short on the markets myself, I think after the Jan options expire and Obama takes office the market will get the cold slap of reality of where the economy is. I keep seeing more and more analysts come on CNBC telling people that we will have double digit returns in the market in 2009 and how the bottom is in place (one guy even made a prediction that the S&P goes to 1,200 this year...what a joke). All those analysts expect the economy to rebound by the middle of this year....not a chance in my mind.
Aside from trading...
Europe is contracting, Japan is contracting and so is China. This isn't a local issue its a global issue that will have major consequences. Have you seen the economic news the past 2 weeks? It is beyond horrific. Each time it gets worse and worse as things deteriorate, yet we stay put and even rally a bit. Remember when industrials fell to a 30 year low like a week or so ago? I think the numeber was like 32 and they were expecting a slight improvement from a previous month of like 45 from 42. Yet the market was up 258 pts or so? Come on now...people are already drunk and drinking more...
People are still happy coming from X-mas and hoping that the New Year will bring new fortunes...give it till end of this month or maybe mid Feb, before firms are slapped with disappointing earnings, leading to more job losses, to forclosures and ARM resests definately not helping anyone.
Cheer the low rates? Go ahead...isn't low rates what got us into this mess? Is the Fed that stupid to combat the problem using the problem? This isn't a snake bite...
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
So I will position myself accordingly. If I'm right, I'll profit...If I'm wrong, we won't have a war and everybody will be happy. It's almost a win win.</blockquote>
I'm waiting in the wings to go short on the markets myself, I think after the Jan options expire and Obama takes office the market will get the cold slap of reality of where the economy is. I keep seeing more and more analysts come on CNBC telling people that we will have double digit returns in the market in 2009 and how the bottom is in place (one guy even made a prediction that the S&P goes to 1,200 this year...what a joke). All those analysts expect the economy to rebound by the middle of this year....not a chance in my mind.
awgee_IHB
New member
"<em>Indeed, one of the great social benefits of the Madoff scandal may be to finally reveal the S.E.C. for what it has become.
Created to protect investors from financial predators, the commission has somehow evolved into a mechanism for protecting financial predators with political clout from investors. (The task it has performed most diligently during this crisis has been to question, intimidate and impose rules on short-sellers ? the only market players who have a financial incentive to expose fraud and abuse.)
</em>"
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/opinion/04lewiseinhorn.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=lewis einhorn&st=cse">Lewis and Einhorn</a>
Created to protect investors from financial predators, the commission has somehow evolved into a mechanism for protecting financial predators with political clout from investors. (The task it has performed most diligently during this crisis has been to question, intimidate and impose rules on short-sellers ? the only market players who have a financial incentive to expose fraud and abuse.)
</em>"
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/opinion/04lewiseinhorn.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=lewis einhorn&st=cse">Lewis and Einhorn</a>
jbenko_IHB
New member
Dipped my toes in the water...bought Feb puts on Cisco, Simon, and Best Buy. Cisco is a quick trade, the rest I plan to hold a bit... Slowly shifting...
ABC123_IHB
New member
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231296804]
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?
[quote author="ABC123" date=1231349532][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231296804]
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?</blockquote>
I know the question wasn't directed towards me, but I'll answer it anyway. It all depends on what your timeframes are. If they are long enough, then I would say that a war against Russia and/or China is a certainty. It may not happen in 2009, but I don't think we can make it through the next 15 years without it happening.
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?</blockquote>
I know the question wasn't directed towards me, but I'll answer it anyway. It all depends on what your timeframes are. If they are long enough, then I would say that a war against Russia and/or China is a certainty. It may not happen in 2009, but I don't think we can make it through the next 15 years without it happening.
jbenko_IHB
New member
[quote author="ABC123" date=1231349532][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231296804]
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?</blockquote>
Depends on how bad things get. When a country is backed in a corner and has nothing else to look forward too then they will resort to war pressured by its own people.
Let me ask you a question...
You are working, the company you work for hasn't paid you in about 3 months. They have paid you some in food and vodka, but now they are running out of that as well. You'll take food at this point in order for you or your family to survive, but there isn't any anymore. You will panic, riot, revolt etc. This is natural human behaviour in order to survive, but it won't accomplish anything because nobody has any food either. OH WAIT. You do have 25,000 nuclear warheads, and handful of tanks and planes and countries around you have food. Would you as a country use them? or go extinct. Well Russia came close to this before and who's to say it won't get there again, especially the situation they are heading to. If you want to know details on how these sequental events actually come to reality, go study WWII and Germany.
Take China...They f'ed up royaly by limiting how many females per household they can have or females in general. Now there is an inbalance between male/female population. What do you do? put all those men to work as new factories are popping up left and right. Wait a sec...they are shutting down left and right now because of the economy. What does that extra testasterone do since it can't mate and start a family? they riot...this is what currently is happening in China today. How does a government get rid of riots and these extra males? Start a war. The country gains by defeating its foes, and gains by losing some of its own males to create balance.
Thoughts?
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?</blockquote>
Depends on how bad things get. When a country is backed in a corner and has nothing else to look forward too then they will resort to war pressured by its own people.
Let me ask you a question...
You are working, the company you work for hasn't paid you in about 3 months. They have paid you some in food and vodka, but now they are running out of that as well. You'll take food at this point in order for you or your family to survive, but there isn't any anymore. You will panic, riot, revolt etc. This is natural human behaviour in order to survive, but it won't accomplish anything because nobody has any food either. OH WAIT. You do have 25,000 nuclear warheads, and handful of tanks and planes and countries around you have food. Would you as a country use them? or go extinct. Well Russia came close to this before and who's to say it won't get there again, especially the situation they are heading to. If you want to know details on how these sequental events actually come to reality, go study WWII and Germany.
Take China...They f'ed up royaly by limiting how many females per household they can have or females in general. Now there is an inbalance between male/female population. What do you do? put all those men to work as new factories are popping up left and right. Wait a sec...they are shutting down left and right now because of the economy. What does that extra testasterone do since it can't mate and start a family? they riot...this is what currently is happening in China today. How does a government get rid of riots and these extra males? Start a war. The country gains by defeating its foes, and gains by losing some of its own males to create balance.
Thoughts?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231330364]Dipped my toes in the water...bought Feb puts on Cisco, Simon, and Best Buy. Cisco is a quick trade, the rest I plan to hold a bit... Slowly shifting...</blockquote>
Ditto here...picked up 10 QQQQ March 32 puts and 100 shares of QID at 7am.
Ditto here...picked up 10 QQQQ March 32 puts and 100 shares of QID at 7am.
upperlowerclass_IHB
New member
Everything is dropping... deleveraging round 2?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
[quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1231373894]Everything is dropping... deleveraging round 2?</blockquote>
Nah, more like a cold biatch slap of reality for the market that everything isn't getting better. The markets rallied about 25% from the Nov lows, it's time to start giving some of that back since the market looks overbought. I think that once earnings season starts and most companies begin to disappoint left and right, not only with Q4 results but also with 2009 guidance, the market might go back towards the Nov lows.
Nah, more like a cold biatch slap of reality for the market that everything isn't getting better. The markets rallied about 25% from the Nov lows, it's time to start giving some of that back since the market looks overbought. I think that once earnings season starts and most companies begin to disappoint left and right, not only with Q4 results but also with 2009 guidance, the market might go back towards the Nov lows.
upperlowerclass_IHB
New member
I sold all my positions other than three. I kept them because scottrade says it'll be a "free ride" if I sell unsettled funds. I really want to sell these now because I think the profits I have in them might vanish soon. How bad is it to sell unsetlled funds and get dinged with "free ride"? One I can sell tomorrow, the other 2 on fri, should i just wait?
O
Oscar_IHB
Guest
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231368900][quote author="ABC123" date=1231349532][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231296804]
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?</blockquote>
Take China...They f'ed up royaly by limiting how many females per household they can have or females in general. Now there is an inbalance between male/female population. What do you do? put all those men to work as new factories are popping up left and right. Wait a sec...they are shutting down left and right now because of the economy. What does that extra testasterone do since it can't mate and start a family? they riot...this is what currently is happening in China today. How does a government get rid of riots and these extra males? Start a war. The country gains by defeating its foes, and gains by losing some of its own males to create balance.
Thoughts?</blockquote>
It's actually worse than that. Five years ago, I calculated that by next year they will have ~14.7 MILLION more men of fighting age than women of childbearing age. The raw data came from <a href="http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=2">the UN's own projections.</a> Essentially they could lose 14 million males between the ages of 15 and 40 <strong>and still maintain parity between men and women of reproductive age!</strong> And China just moved to <a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10132348-38.html">block all internet porn</a>. If a minimum military division consists of 10,000 men, China could soon have 1400 divisions of formerly unemployed, frustrated, angry men ready to fight.
In contrast, the United States has a total armed force of ~2.8 Million if you include reserves. The only thing working in our favor is that China isn't prepared for war at sea and Russia is a much closer and more tempting target.
5-6K Dow is still my target assuming we dont have a major war with either Russia, China or US involved with whoever else. Then I'd say Dow to 2K.
</blockquote>
Do you think a major war could be a real probability?</blockquote>
Take China...They f'ed up royaly by limiting how many females per household they can have or females in general. Now there is an inbalance between male/female population. What do you do? put all those men to work as new factories are popping up left and right. Wait a sec...they are shutting down left and right now because of the economy. What does that extra testasterone do since it can't mate and start a family? they riot...this is what currently is happening in China today. How does a government get rid of riots and these extra males? Start a war. The country gains by defeating its foes, and gains by losing some of its own males to create balance.
Thoughts?</blockquote>
It's actually worse than that. Five years ago, I calculated that by next year they will have ~14.7 MILLION more men of fighting age than women of childbearing age. The raw data came from <a href="http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=2">the UN's own projections.</a> Essentially they could lose 14 million males between the ages of 15 and 40 <strong>and still maintain parity between men and women of reproductive age!</strong> And China just moved to <a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10132348-38.html">block all internet porn</a>. If a minimum military division consists of 10,000 men, China could soon have 1400 divisions of formerly unemployed, frustrated, angry men ready to fight.
In contrast, the United States has a total armed force of ~2.8 Million if you include reserves. The only thing working in our favor is that China isn't prepared for war at sea and Russia is a much closer and more tempting target.
[quote author="Oscar" date=1231384311]
In contrast, the United States has a total armed force of ~2.8 Million if you include reserves. The only thing working in our favor is that China isn't prepared for war at sea and Russia is a much closer and more tempting target.</blockquote>
And we have better trained warfighters, weapon systems, and logistics systems to supply our people with food, fuel, and ammunition. Russia had problems supplying their own troops when they fought Afghanistan, and they share a border with Afghanistan. Forget about either China or Russia being able to fight a war half way around the world.
In contrast, the United States has a total armed force of ~2.8 Million if you include reserves. The only thing working in our favor is that China isn't prepared for war at sea and Russia is a much closer and more tempting target.</blockquote>
And we have better trained warfighters, weapon systems, and logistics systems to supply our people with food, fuel, and ammunition. Russia had problems supplying their own troops when they fought Afghanistan, and they share a border with Afghanistan. Forget about either China or Russia being able to fight a war half way around the world.
O
Oscar_IHB
Guest
I started <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/4071/">a new thread</a> to end the thread-jacking.
graphrix_IHB
New member
[quote author="PANDA" date=1231195672]Whew!
I safely removed my 50% gain on DXO. No more 2x ETFs for the Panda. Thanks Graph, Winex, and BV for Warning the newbie day trader.</blockquote>
You sold at a good time and made a very nice profit. If you were still holding today, you would have seen that 50% gain cut in half.
Good job, Panda.
I safely removed my 50% gain on DXO. No more 2x ETFs for the Panda. Thanks Graph, Winex, and BV for Warning the newbie day trader.</blockquote>
You sold at a good time and made a very nice profit. If you were still holding today, you would have seen that 50% gain cut in half.
Good job, Panda.
PANDA_IHB
New member
[quote author="graphrix" date=1231402495][quote author="PANDA" date=1231195672]Whew!
I safely removed my 50% gain on DXO. No more 2x ETFs for the Panda. Thanks Graph, Winex, and BV for Warning the newbie day trader.</blockquote>
You sold at a good time and made a very nice profit. If you were still holding today, you would have seen that 50% gain cut in half.
Good job, Panda.</blockquote>
Graph,
Beginner's luck! Trading Stocks is definitely not for me.
So you think USO is okay if i want to go long on OIL for atleast a year? I am tempted to buy in tomorrow as I can't see Oil being less than $50 for very long. What do you IHB stock professionals think? Panda needs your advice.
Today was weird day as everything went down. Dollar, Gold, and Oil all went down. Normally when the dollar is down, gold would rise. Not today?
I safely removed my 50% gain on DXO. No more 2x ETFs for the Panda. Thanks Graph, Winex, and BV for Warning the newbie day trader.</blockquote>
You sold at a good time and made a very nice profit. If you were still holding today, you would have seen that 50% gain cut in half.
Good job, Panda.</blockquote>
Graph,
Beginner's luck! Trading Stocks is definitely not for me.
So you think USO is okay if i want to go long on OIL for atleast a year? I am tempted to buy in tomorrow as I can't see Oil being less than $50 for very long. What do you IHB stock professionals think? Panda needs your advice.
Today was weird day as everything went down. Dollar, Gold, and Oil all went down. Normally when the dollar is down, gold would rise. Not today?
O
Oscar_IHB
Guest
[quote author="skek" date=1231405719]<blockquote>So you think USO is okay if i want to go long on OIL for atleast a year? I am tempted to buy in tomorrow. What do you professionals think?</blockquote>
If you want to go long on oil, forget paper barrels. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3kArMwI54Bw&refer=home">Charter a supertanker</a> and store wet barrels in it.
<blockquote>Frontline Ltd., the world?s biggest owner of supertankers, said oil traders want to charter as many as 10 vessels to hold crude to take advantage of higher prices later in the year.
About 25 supertankers were already hired for storage and there are inquiries for 5 to 10 more, Jens Martin Jensen, Singapore-based interim chief executive officer of the company?s management unit, said by phone today.</blockquote></blockquote>
Or call Kaneb Terminals and lease a storage tank. Probably cheaper and if you diversify between oil, nat gas, and gasoline, you could cover all the bases when the end times come.
If you want to go long on oil, forget paper barrels. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3kArMwI54Bw&refer=home">Charter a supertanker</a> and store wet barrels in it.
<blockquote>Frontline Ltd., the world?s biggest owner of supertankers, said oil traders want to charter as many as 10 vessels to hold crude to take advantage of higher prices later in the year.
About 25 supertankers were already hired for storage and there are inquiries for 5 to 10 more, Jens Martin Jensen, Singapore-based interim chief executive officer of the company?s management unit, said by phone today.</blockquote></blockquote>
Or call Kaneb Terminals and lease a storage tank. Probably cheaper and if you diversify between oil, nat gas, and gasoline, you could cover all the bases when the end times come.