Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1232547741][quote author="ocrebel" date=1232539226][quote author="ocrebel" date=1232163566]If my EW counting is correct, bounce-back might be over and we're heading lower on wave 3 which couldn't be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5.</blockquote>


Wave 3 of 5 (intermediate) of 1 (primary) is in progress. Once intermediate wave 5 is finished, spy should settle somewhere between 62~64 before starting primary wave 2.

<strong>You first heard it here</strong>, we are nowhere close to the bottom. previous low will be taken out.

If I see overwhelming bearish attitude, I will cover before 62~64 target.</blockquote>


Huh?</blockquote>


Google Elliot Wave
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1232548210][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1232547741][quote author="ocrebel" date=1232539226][quote author="ocrebel" date=1232163566]If my EW counting is correct, bounce-back might be over and we're heading lower on wave 3 which couldn't be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5.</blockquote>


Wave 3 of 5 (intermediate) of 1 (primary) is in progress. Once intermediate wave 5 is finished, spy should settle somewhere between 62~64 before starting primary wave 2.

<strong>You first heard it here</strong>, we are nowhere close to the bottom. previous low will be taken out.

If I see overwhelming bearish attitude, I will cover before 62~64 target.</blockquote>


Huh?</blockquote>


Google Elliot Wave</blockquote>


I believe that Blackvault was referring to the "you heard it here first" part of the post. And by gosh, he's right. Not only is this the first time ANYONE in this forum has predicted lower stock prices, I believe it's the first time ANYONE on the internet made that prediction.



We are in the presence of greatness.
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1232548510][quote author="awgee" date=1232548210][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1232547741][quote author="ocrebel" date=1232539226][quote author="ocrebel" date=1232163566]If my EW counting is correct, bounce-back might be over and we're heading lower on wave 3 which couldn't be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5.</blockquote>


Wave 3 of 5 (intermediate) of 1 (primary) is in progress. Once intermediate wave 5 is finished, spy should settle somewhere between 62~64 before starting primary wave 2.

<strong>You first heard it here</strong>, we are nowhere close to the bottom. previous low will be taken out.

If I see overwhelming bearish attitude, I will cover before 62~64 target.</blockquote>


Huh?</blockquote>


Google Elliot Wave</blockquote>


I believe that Blackvault was referring to the "you heard it here first" part of the post. And by gosh, he's right. Not only is this the first time ANYONE in this forum has predicted lower stock prices, I believe it's the first time ANYONE on the internet made that prediction.



We are in the presence of greatness.</blockquote>




GREATNESS is all yours as long as you make money and share your way of thinking before the action and put your money where your mouth is.



On Nov. 15th, 2008:

based on my EW count, next week marks trade-able multi-month bottom.

Economy is in for a long and deep slump, ultimate bottom will happen in 2009.



[quote author="ocrebel" date=1231937193][quote author="ocrebel" date=1228804395][quote author="ocrebel" date=1227708899][quote author="ocrebel" date=1227160537][quote author="ocrebel" date=1226803465][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



Right now my strategy is still to be short in the next month or so (or longer once more economic data comes through) but I'm also starting to build a long position slowly. For example, I purchased 2000 shares of Intel, 1500 shares of Arcerol Mittal, 200 shares of Burlington Northern and 500 shares of Best Buy and immediately wrote December covered calls to give myself some cushion. </blockquote>


based on my EW count, next week marks trade-able multi-month bottom.

Economy is in for a long and deep slump, ultimate bottom will happen in 2009.</blockquote>


I will start gradually buying SSO and UYG as soon as we break below 80 in SPY. I expect the bottom in 75~80 area. Once it's confirmed I will load up the boat. IMHO, the rally, though choppy and violent, will last few months into Obama's inauguration.

anybody cares to share his/her strategy?</blockquote>


waiting for a pull back to 80~82 on spy to buy-back sso and sell sds. spy is going to get to 100 by end of Jan. 2009.</blockquote>


not perfect in timing, but still I caught most of the swing.

close to perfect timing needs more work on better recognizing intermediate EW. EW is the King.

I still believe spy is rallying to 100 (maybe 105~108) by the end of the year.</blockquote>


I'd like to see a consolidation day tomorrow. If that is a inside bar during the most of the session and (slightly dip below today's low is still ok) rally towards the close and close at day high but not too much higher than today's high, then enter the long. The main up-trend still in place.</blockquote>
 
Yup and I was right ocrebel. Nov 15 was when that was posted. Notice I said I will be short a month or and can always change based on new economic information.

You did some research on past post...do some more. You will be flooded with information.



Winex is right on. I know exactly what the elliot wave is and yes I was reffering to the fact that people have been predicting a stock market drop when DOW was at 12K. As a matter of a fact the discussion sprung up on stocks when PANDA started a thread something along the lines "Did I hear this right DOW below 10K?" I even went along the lines saying that DOW will actually dip to 8K and it did. Then I revised and said that I still beleive DOW will go to 5-6K. I revise my position often too...short term that is. Long term it fluctuates very little. But everything is subject to change based on new information.



The fact that I buy shares is simply for the fact to sell covered calls. The potential of massive drops in some of these is not that great anymore. If it goes down 5, 10, 15, or even 25%, I don't really care. ccalls are taking care of it. I continue to buy stocks and accumulate a long position. I'm not that type of person who will go ALL IN or ALL OUT. To short, I rarely ever short actual stocks. I simply buy a few hundred puts here and there to equal a substantial amount. The rest of my capital is in cash and stocks. Most of it is actually in CSCO (about 60% I would say)



Oh and btw...check out BBY INTC and MT since I bought them around the 15th of November. The shares alone have returned a fine amount over a month and a half...not to mention the covered calls I've been selling in the meantime.



Just curious why did you quote that exact quote of mine. It happens to be dead on...I have others quotes that are wrong that you could have quoted.



The "you heard it here first" comment is quite entertaining though...I feel like you're months behind...its like you now came to the realization that markets have further to go lower, when the rest of us have talked about it months ago.
 
[quote author="ocrebel" date=1232553132]

GREATNESS is all yours as long as you make money and share your way of thinking before the action and put your money where your mouth is.

</blockquote>


Not only do you have a relaxed definition of "first", your standard of "greatness" is significantly lower than that of most people as well.
 
OMG nooo I hope this thread doesn't start spewing out a bunch of EW counts. I have the upmost hatred for the nonsensical self-fulfilling prophecy of EW methods. It only works sometimes because a bunch of other morons out there think it works, its like the f'n horoscopes of the trading world.
 
First let me say this will be my last day here on the IHB forums. It was fun being a part the community but eventually, on all internet message boards, people get sick of you or you get sick of them and it becomes less like fun and more like work. I think the election and the aftermath just took it's toll on me, so I've decided to move on.



But, before I leave I wanted to pass on a little info. I was eavesdropping on the MSFT townhall meeting (shhhh) which was led by the CEO, CFO, and Sr.HR VP and it was very educational. I know some of this was covered on their investor's call but I'm going to repeat it anyway. The big thing is this... MSFT isn't treating this as a recession. Steve said they (meaning the entire management team) studied every American economic crash; 1837, 1873, 1929. He said he doesn't think there is going to be a recovery but that we are moving to a lower level economically. He expects us to hit the bottom over the next 18 months, but has no idea when within that time frame. He repeatedly used the phrase "reset to a lower level" over the 75-minute call. Considering that MS software is used by an increasing number of large corporations, and that he became aware of the size of the downturn based on conversations with his customer base back in November, I'd say he is one of the few people that can accurately shine a spotlight into worldwide Cap. Ex. and report back with any sort of context. MSFT is moving to position itself as if there is an "L"-shaped recovery, rather than a return to former economic activity. They aren't doing percentage based cuts where they just whack x% of payroll/workers, but rather looking for redundant personel and/or excess capacity. They are cutting in areas that are not core to their product, or to their corporate culture, but not cutting out whole divisions. Overall, they are reducing investment and slowing product releases by trimming staff, with an eye towards efficiency rather than across the board cost cutting.



That's all I can remember of the general conversation, but I will check in today to see if anyone has any questions and provide what answers I can.
 
<blockquote>The only awesome deals you will have on the long stuff is temporary movements up. One must be extremely selective from now on. Simply buying the S&P 500 won?t get you NOTHING for at least 10+ years. This country will see a very long period of sideways trading. Covered calls will be your friend in times like that.</blockquote>


Just a reminder, and use it to your advantage ;)
 
I'm in the process of liquidating all my equities over next couple of weeks, and sit on cash until more certanty is present. Stocks are not a bargain even at current prices as I think that dark times are approaching.

Financial collapse is very possible and I'm not risking it. However, buying puts a year out...might look good.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1233183341]Liquidation complete. 95% cash, 5% puts as of.....10 min ago. Going into hibernation.</blockquote>
I don't blame you....the gov't is making trading the market almost impossible because you can get whipsawed by daily headlines about the bailout to today's good bank/bad bank. I took a loss on some QQQQ March puts and got my gain sliced on shorting COF because of the damn pop today. I was ready to pull the trigger on some WFC Feb calls this morning but instead picked up some QQQQ 28 Feb calls that I won't hold past today. Once this smoke about the bailout and bad bank/good bank fades we go lower, I think we will make new lows in the Fall when people realize that the recovery isn't coming in the second half of 2009 or even in early 2010.



BV, did you sell out your CSCO and XOM positions? CSCO has been flying since it hit $15.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1233189234][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1233183341]Liquidation complete. 95% cash, 5% puts as of.....10 min ago. Going into hibernation.</blockquote> Once this smoke about the bailout and bad bank/good bank fades we go lower, I think we will make new lows in the Fall when people realize that the recovery isn't coming in the second half of 2009 or even in early 2010.

</blockquote>


Buy the rumor, sell the news. Until the details of Good Bank/Bad Bank are announced, I believe that the financial sector goes higher. Once the details are announced, that changes. Of course that change of course can be pretty violent if nationalization involves a wipeout of the common stock.



If you are going to play this one, I recommend getting out before the close of market on Friday. Possibly sooner.
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1233189925][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1233189234][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1233183341]Liquidation complete. 95% cash, 5% puts as of.....10 min ago. Going into hibernation.</blockquote> Once this smoke about the bailout and bad bank/good bank fades we go lower, I think we will make new lows in the Fall when people realize that the recovery isn't coming in the second half of 2009 or even in early 2010.

</blockquote>


Buy the rumor, sell the news. Until the details of Good Bank/Bad Bank are announced, I believe that the financial sector goes higher. Once the details are announced, that changes. Of course that change of course can be pretty violent if nationalization involves a wipeout of the common stock.



If you are going to play this one, I recommend getting out before the close of market on Friday. Possibly sooner.</blockquote>
With whats going on with the markets lately, no way am I holding my QQQQ calls overnight. It's gonna have to be strict day trading. I agree with you that once the details come out and people realize that it won't do jacksh1t, we begin to sell off again. With all the garbage on the books (and off) of banks, the gov't doesn't have enough money to buy up all the bad assets. To me, bad assets will be residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, credit card receives, student loans, consumer loans, business loans, etc (I can go on and on). I just hope to God that the gov't doesn't overpay for these assets.
 
I think it's pretty much a given that the Government will overpay. The only real question is what we (the taxpayer) gets in return. We better be in for some mass dilution in return for buying overpriced/worthless assets.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1233189234][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1233183341]Liquidation complete. 95% cash, 5% puts as of.....10 min ago. Going into hibernation.</blockquote>
I don't blame you....the gov't is making trading the market almost impossible because you can get whipsawed by daily headlines about the bailout to today's good bank/bad bank. I took a loss on some QQQQ March puts and got my gain sliced on shorting COF because of the damn pop today. I was ready to pull the trigger on some WFC Feb calls this morning but instead picked up some QQQQ 28 Feb calls that I won't hold past today. Once this smoke about the bailout and bad bank/good bank fades we go lower, I think we will make new lows in the Fall when people realize that the recovery isn't coming in the second half of 2009 or even in early 2010.



BV, did you sell out your CSCO and XOM positions? CSCO has been flying since it hit $15.</blockquote>


Yes, everything. I made a decent return past few months on the stocks themself and a very nice return cycling calls over and over. I hope I'm making the right move, at the same time I'm not greedy by nature so enough is enough for me.

I'm very satisfied. I also bought long term puts on QQQQ and short term puts on CSCO and MT early this morning.

Mainly because I believe market will retest 7,500 and head lower whether its a month from now or a year from now. CSCO on the other hand has risen from 15 to 17.30 really fast as well as MT. So I bought puts on the pop this morning. I hope it crashes by the end of the day...HAHA
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1233189925][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1233189234][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1233183341]Liquidation complete. 95% cash, 5% puts as of.....10 min ago. Going into hibernation.</blockquote> Once this smoke about the bailout and bad bank/good bank fades we go lower, I think we will make new lows in the Fall when people realize that the recovery isn't coming in the second half of 2009 or even in early 2010.

</blockquote>


Buy the rumor, sell the news. Until the details of Good Bank/Bad Bank are announced, I believe that the financial sector goes higher. Once the details are announced, that changes. Of course that change of course can be pretty violent if nationalization involves a wipeout of the common stock.



If you are going to play this one, I recommend getting out before the close of market on Friday. Possibly sooner.</blockquote>


Exactly. The market ralied the past few days on the anticipation of the bill. My thought is...is this it? Seemed like it rallied more than it really did. We are still at low 8Ks. What happens when bears come back again? Do we retest 7.5 and head to 7? I think so.



The odds of DOW going to 9K is much worse than it going to 7K. So I don't think I'm risking much by liquidating my position. Also, instead of shorting and risking capital. I bought puts. 5% in puts gives me almost as much leverage as going 95% cash. If I'm wrong...I lose 5%. If I'm right...I gain another new Benz...maybe a boat...yeah I always wanted a boat. Then again...I'll go back to being cheap old me...and simply re-invest it.



Wait..damn it...forgot. It will go to my sons college fund. It's a boy btw. YEEEEHAAAW!
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1233194243]



Wait..damn it...forgot. It will go to my sons college fund. It's a boy btw. YEEEEHAAAW!</blockquote>


Congratulations.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1233194243]

Wait..damn it...forgot. It will go to my sons college fund. It's a boy btw. YEEEEHAAAW!</blockquote>




Congrats on the boy

Make sure you send him to USC.

That?s where all the high earning, uber achievers go.



Where do I send the gift.

Are you registered at Babies R?Us under Mr. & Mrs. B.Vault?
 
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