Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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[quote author="skek" date=1231467514][quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1231373894]Everything is dropping... deleveraging round 2?</blockquote>


It sure looks like it again today...</blockquote>


Amen. Any pop and I buy more puts and short some more.



On side note, what people thought was safe isn't really safe. Wal-Mart down 8%. Weird part is that sears isup 20%...puke.
 
Normally, people would flee to the dollar and treasuries when the DOW heads south. It is weird that both the dollar and the stock market is both going down again. I always thought they generally move in opposite directions.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1231469210]Normally, people would flee to the dollar and treasuries when the DOW heads south. It is weird that both the dollar and the stock market is both going down again. I always thought they generally move in opposite directions.</blockquote>


No such thing as "generally"
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1231469210]Normally, people would flee to the dollar and treasuries when the DOW heads south. It is weird that both the dollar and the stock market is both going down again. I always thought they generally move in opposite directions.</blockquote>


I was thinking the same yesterday, dollar down, dow down, treasuries down, gold down, oil down, where the hell was the money flowing? Or was some credit just evaporating again?
 
[quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1231290460][quote author="awgee" date=1231141012][quote author="WINEX" date=1231121085]



Also, should you choose to look at fundamentals, I doubt that you will find a miner, or company in oil industry that is selling for less than net cash. (If someone knows of any, PLEASE tell me)</blockquote>


For what may be the first time in the history of mining stocks, there were miners selling for less than net cash about one month ago. I have not checked market caps lately, so I do not know if they are still net positive, but for awhile it was incredulous. Sorry, I am not comfortable giving names, but it is not that difficult to find them. Look for the mid-range and smaller PRODUCERS. Stay very clear of the explorers and the big producers will probably never be net pos. Also, look at the pm royalty companies. There are only a few, but there business model is extraordinary.</blockquote>


Not a producer, in fact they don't seem to be much of anything, kind of a crappy company, but USEG is at .73 on the dollar. 39M market cap, 70M cash and 16M debt. I'm in at 1.73, gonna take a short ride on this one.</blockquote>


Out 2.02, in fact I'm out of everything except for a small position in SZK.
 
Just sold my Cisco, Xom and AA puts.



AA = 85% return

CSCO = 103%

XOM = 14%



Also, bought back all my CSCO (CYQAW) covered calls, (.15 cents) and hopefully I get a slight pop and resell them again.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231542628]Just sold my Cisco, Xom and AA puts.



AA = 85% return

CSCO = 103%

XOM = 14%



Also, bought back all my CSCO (CYQAW) covered calls, (.15 cents) and hopefully I get a slight pop and resell them again.</blockquote>
Nice trades! I picked up another 10 March 32 QQQQ puts at close yesterday and dumped all 20 puts at around 7am for $2.75. My limit order to buy back 10 of those puts got filled at $2.55 recently. I'm looking at selling 35 and 40 Jan ROH puts as well. I think tech is getting a pop because of the CES show, but I think next week or the week after we will see tech come down. The 20 & 50 day moving average for the NASDAQ is around 1560-1570 so if we break below there on bigger volume....LOOK OUT BELOW!
 
Alcoa is starting to look pretty again. I'll let her ride to about 8 bucks though. Cisco will probably do the typical of going to 15 or so a share. Exxon down to low 70s. A couple hundred more pts to the downside and I'll be selling puts as they are starting to get pretty fat.
 
[quote author="ocrebel" date=1228804395][quote author="ocrebel" date=1227708899][quote author="ocrebel" date=1227160537][quote author="ocrebel" date=1226803465][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1226765024]



Right now my strategy is still to be short in the next month or so (or longer once more economic data comes through) but I'm also starting to build a long position slowly. For example, I purchased 2000 shares of Intel, 1500 shares of Arcerol Mittal, 200 shares of Burlington Northern and 500 shares of Best Buy and immediately wrote December covered calls to give myself some cushion. </blockquote>


based on my EW count, next week marks trade-able multi-month bottom.

Economy is in for a long and deep slump, ultimate bottom will happen in 2009.</blockquote>


I will start gradually buying SSO and UYG as soon as we break below 80 in SPY. I expect the bottom in 75~80 area. Once it's confirmed I will load up the boat. IMHO, the rally, though choppy and violent, will last few months into Obama's inauguration.

anybody cares to share his/her strategy?</blockquote>


waiting for a pull back to 80~82 on spy to buy-back sso and sell sds. spy is going to get to 100 by end of Jan. 2009.</blockquote>


not perfect in timing, but still I caught most of the swing.

close to perfect timing needs more work on better recognizing intermediate EW. EW is the King.

I still believe spy is rallying to 100 (maybe 105~108) by the end of the year.</blockquote>


I'd like to see a consolidation day tomorrow. If that is a inside bar during the most of the session and (slightly dip below today's low is still ok) rally towards the close and close at day high but not too much higher than today's high, then enter the long. The main up-trend still in place.
 
Well Alcoa is at low 8s. I'm a buyer here...

Cisco is at low 15s...also a buyer here...



Don't know how much lower it will go, so I'm not going to risk much capital here and instead buying calls for leverage.

Buying in two shots...one here and one more if Dow dips to 7500.
 
Can't remember the thread where Panda asked about leveraged ETFs, but here is a much better explanation of why I do not like leveraged ETFs.



<a href="http://http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123155505487470527.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo">leveraged ETFs</a>
 
Just a heads up... every quarter after their earnings report, Microsoft holds a town hall meeting for Q&A for it's employees. This is usually headed by some VP, fielding internal questions about division specific details, transitions, retasking, etc. For the first time in company history Steve Ballmer will be the executive taking those questions. Given the heightened press attention being given to the layoff rumors, we have come to the conclusion that next Thursday earnings report is not going to be pretty.



Just thought I'd share the news with people who might be able to appreciate it fully. :coolsmirk:
 
If my EW counting is correct, bounce-back might be over and we're heading lower on wave 3 which couldn't be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5.
 
The CC bankruptcy got me looking at BBY. I think that's one that's screaming to be shorted. The quarterly earnings history is showing a strong negative trend, and I'm sure the worst is yet to come.
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1232165598]The CC bankruptcy got me looking at BBY. I think that's one that's screaming to be shorted. The quarterly earnings history is showing a strong negative trend, and I'm sure the worst is yet to come.</blockquote>
Looks like it bounced off $30 and drifted lower. I'd give the stock a few more days to enjoy the good news of CC being gone and then go short.
 
As I mentioned before, I did a trade on USB to get the dividend (which was paid yesterday). Well, I bought the shares back in late Dec for $23.92/share and at the same time sold covered Jan $20 covered calls on the stock. Well, not only did I get the dividend but I sold the shares yesterday at $20.98/share and held the calls (which became uncovered) which will expire worthless. I sold 20 Feb $22.50 uncovered calls on USB for $.60/option today. I'm also considering doing a bear call spread on USB as well.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1232167530][quote author="Daedalus" date=1232165598]The CC bankruptcy got me looking at BBY. I think that's one that's screaming to be shorted. The quarterly earnings history is showing a strong negative trend, and I'm sure the worst is yet to come.</blockquote>
Looks like it bounced off $30 and drifted lower. I'd give the stock a few more days to enjoy the good news of CC being gone and then go short.</blockquote>
Too late! I'm already in (1/2) my position. :D We'll see how it rolls. They have to be reporting soon, and any benefit from CC going bk won't show up in this next report. 30 was my target; I got in just under that.
 
[quote author="ocrebel" date=1232163566]If my EW counting is correct, bounce-back might be over and we're heading lower on wave 3 which couldn't be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5.</blockquote>


Wave 3 of 5 (intermediate) of 1 (primary) is in progress. Once intermediate wave 5 is finished, spy should settle somewhere between 62~64 before starting primary wave 2.

You first heard it here, we are nowhere close to the bottom. previous low will be taken out.

If I see overwhelming bearish attitude, I will cover before 62~64 target.
 
[quote author="ocrebel" date=1232539226][quote author="ocrebel" date=1232163566]If my EW counting is correct, bounce-back might be over and we're heading lower on wave 3 which couldn't be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5.</blockquote>


Wave 3 of 5 (intermediate) of 1 (primary) is in progress. Once intermediate wave 5 is finished, spy should settle somewhere between 62~64 before starting primary wave 2.

<strong>You first heard it here</strong>, we are nowhere close to the bottom. previous low will be taken out.

If I see overwhelming bearish attitude, I will cover before 62~64 target.</blockquote>


Huh?
 
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