Presidential Elections

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inv0ke-epipen said:
Mostly agree, but on the flipside people tend to jump to illegal = bad because illegal, instead of considering the thing on its own merits/demerits.

There is obviously flexibility in enforcement, so I think it is fair to disapprove of ICE, Jeff Sessions? or other entities enforcement decisions.

Nazi example is loaded, but not a  strawman. It is just an example to show ?enforcing the law doesn?t make someone a bad guy? doesn?t always hold, and demonstrates the potential dangers in this line of thinking.

Marijuana and immigration are obviously much more grey issues, and Jeff Sessions could be in the right here. I don?t believe he is in the right only because he is enforcing the law, however.

Again, I agree  that the focus should be on changing the law, but believe enforcement can also be a part of the conversation.
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you certainly have the right to disapprove of sessions enforcing laws that were not previously enforced.  i disapprove of the previous administration not enforcing laws that were on the books. 

if you want to take it back to the extreme again, then sure i will agree with you that in certain situations throughout history enforcing the law was "bad".  but again, we live in a time and country where if the people think what is happening with the enforcement of laws is "bad" then our elected officials have the ability to change the laws. 

if we don't enforce our laws, what is the point of having them?  if the laws are too loose, then tighten them up.  or if times have changed, then change the laws.  i believe sessions is right for enforcing the laws.  i disagree with some of the laws like the federal treatment of marijuana, but i understand why the law is on the books and because times have changed i support the change of that law.  unfortunately, i don't think we will see that law changing until at least after 2020.  while most on the left agree with changing the laws, they wouldn't be caught dead giving trump a W like this.
 
So do you really think Trump will get a second term?

First year in, with all is off the cuff policies that kept getting reversed and the turnover in personnel, I would think not, but I didn't think he would get elected in the first place either.

While there is all this backlash against him (like the NFL and NBA champs), there is still a huge segment that loves his unpolished unpolitical style (which is weird because as a businessman you would think he would be more refined).

I think it depends on what kind of candidate the Dems can put up. As progressive/liberal as we might think America has become, the conservatives seem to have the sway (at least in the electoral college) so if they can present someone who speaks to both sides, there might be a chance.

I just find this all so interesting. I didn't think Obama would get elected because of the good ole boy majority, I didn't think Trump would get elected because, well, in my mind, he seems like an idiot, but I guess maybe people just want someone different.

Maybe an Asian American female candidate? :)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So do you really think Trump will get a second term?
...

First year in, with all is off the cuff policies that kept getting reversed and the turnover in personnel, I would think not, but I didn't think he would get elected in the first place either.
(Snip)
I think it depends on what kind of candidate the Dems can put up. As progressive/liberal as we might think America has become, the conservatives seem to have the sway (at least in the electoral college) so if they can present someone who speaks to both sides, there might be a chance.
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I think they just need someone who won't alienate half of the middle third when they're blowing their dog whistle.

Plus they need a solid recession. If a solid recession with tangible job losses isnt kicked in by 2nd quarter 2020 they're sunk Imho.  Without one the last two years of doom proclamations and continued next year and a half of them will make the Dems message ring hollow.


 
Trump will sign the bipartisan cannabis bill for two reasons:

A) The Banks and the Politicians see the $$$$$$$$$$$$ this green wave produces. I don't support it myself, but it's both inevitable and well past due.

2) It will be a take away issue from the Left side of the issues ledger. The R's can capture some of the libertarian, middle of the road D's with a significant shift in how the War on Drugs is waged.

What IMHO will potentially keep The Donald out of the White House in 2020?

I) A true Blue Wave that keeps the Russki nothingburger farce on the front page ad nauseum.

B) If another SC member passes/retires prior to 2020. This will ignite the Left such as no other issue. Kennedy will go in 2018 or 2019, and Trump will have the opportunity to replace, but if another seat comes up, the heat will get turned up to 11 around DC.

3) The looming pain due to the tax policy changes enacted last year. 2019 tax filers are going to be in for a bigly surprise and that anger will be hard to extinguish.

My .02c
 
nosuchreality said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So do you really think Trump will get a second term?
...

First year in, with all is off the cuff policies that kept getting reversed and the turnover in personnel, I would think not, but I didn't think he would get elected in the first place either.
(Snip)
I think it depends on what kind of candidate the Dems can put up. As progressive/liberal as we might think America has become, the conservatives seem to have the sway (at least in the electoral college) so if they can present someone who speaks to both sides, there might be a chance.
Click to expand...

I think they just need someone who won't alienate half of the middle third when they're blowing their dog whistle.

Plus they need a solid recession. If a solid recession with tangible job losses isnt kicked in by 2nd quarter 2020 they're sunk Imho.  Without one the last two years of doom proclamations and continued next year and a half of them will make the Dems message ring hollow.
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They also need a message.  Attacking Trump won't be enough.
 
nosuchreality said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So do you really think Trump will get a second term?
...

First year in, with all is off the cuff policies that kept getting reversed and the turnover in personnel, I would think not, but I didn't think he would get elected in the first place either.
(Snip)
I think it depends on what kind of candidate the Dems can put up. As progressive/liberal as we might think America has become, the conservatives seem to have the sway (at least in the electoral college) so if they can present someone who speaks to both sides, there might be a chance.
Click to expand...

I think they just need someone who won't alienate half of the middle third when they're blowing their dog whistle.

Plus they need a solid recession. If a solid recession with tangible job losses isnt kicked in by 2nd quarter 2020 they're sunk Imho.  Without one the last two years of doom proclamations and continued next year and a half of them will make the Dems message ring hollow.
Click to expand...

Agree, without a severe recession, Republican and Trump team will continue to reign in his second term. It's a dangerous game here, citizens and average folks are innocent bystander will take the brunt of it. No one on top ever get hurt when recession hit. It actually makes them wealthier during bad time. So I would hope the good time continue. It comes down to money, if everyone have money to spend and happy, they don't care who running the show.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
3) The looming pain due to the tax policy changes enacted last year. 2019 tax filers are going to be in for a bigly surprise and that anger will be hard to extinguish.
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Electorally this is a non-factor.  Who cares if the people of California, New York, and New Jersey are upset?  They voted to tax themselves and it's within their power to make it go away at the state level.  Either way, their votes don't matter when it comes to electing the President.
 
Liar Loan said:
Soylent Green Is People said:
3) The looming pain due to the tax policy changes enacted last year. 2019 tax filers are going to be in for a bigly surprise and that anger will be hard to extinguish.
Click to expand...

Electorally this is a non-factor.  Who cares if the people of California, New York, and New Jersey are upset?  They voted to tax themselves and it's within their power to make it go away at the state level.  Either way, their votes don't matter when it comes to electing the President.
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It?s not just California, New York, and New Jersey with SALT issues.

Another non truthful statement.
 
Im really sick of your misleading statements bro. Something needs to be done. Your posts should be approved before you post on TI.

MUST ACT NOW. Nothing is being done. Need to TAKE action!
 
Liar Loan - Of course it matters.

When California or New York sneezes, the rest of the Country catches a cold. If you think the anti-Republican/anti-Trump noise is loud Now, wait until 2019 when both coasts potentially erupt. Most will see the issue not as high State tax, but "Doood... where did my Federal write offs go???" Expect to hear more anti-DC chatter than anti-sacramento buzz. That's bad for the incumbent party, which could be the Republicans. I'm convinced that the short term gains found in the tax bill will have worn off come November 2020 and the mood will sour considerably nationwide.

My .02c
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Liar Loan - Of course it matters.

When California or New York sneezes, the rest of the Country catches a cold. If you think the anti-Republican/anti-Trump noise is loud Now, wait until 2019 when both coasts potentially erupt. Most will see the issue not as high State tax, but "Doood... where did my Federal write offs go???" Expect to hear more anti-DC chatter than anti-sacramento buzz. That's bad for the incumbent party, which could be the Republicans. I'm convinced that the short term gains found in the tax bill will have worn off come November 2020 and the mood will sour considerably nationwide.

My .02c
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Soy add the tariffs to farmers and other country tariff retaliation.
If your looking around to buy a new car. Buy one now due to the potential tarff increase.
 
eyephone said:
Soylent Green Is People said:
Liar Loan - Of course it matters.

When California or New York sneezes, the rest of the Country catches a cold. If you think the anti-Republican/anti-Trump noise is loud Now, wait until 2019 when both coasts potentially erupt. Most will see the issue not as high State tax, but "Doood... where did my Federal write offs go???" Expect to hear more anti-DC chatter than anti-sacramento buzz. That's bad for the incumbent party, which could be the Republicans. I'm convinced that the short term gains found in the tax bill will have worn off come November 2020 and the mood will sour considerably nationwide.

My .02c
Click to expand...

Soy add the tariffs to farmers and other country tariff retaliation.
If your looking around to buy a new car. Buy one now due to the potential tarff increase.
Click to expand...

Yah I will keep mine for a good while.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Liar Loan - Of course it matters.

When California or New York sneezes, the rest of the Country catches a cold. If you think the anti-Republican/anti-Trump noise is loud Now, wait until 2019 when both coasts potentially erupt. Most will see the issue not as high State tax, but "Doood... where did my Federal write offs go???" Expect to hear more anti-DC chatter than anti-sacramento buzz. That's bad for the incumbent party, which could be the Republicans. I'm convinced that the short term gains found in the tax bill will have worn off come November 2020 and the mood will sour considerably nationwide.

My .02c
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I don't know what the mood of the nation will be, but the tax plan only raises taxes on 7% of the population taxpayers, which means even in the liberal coastal enclaves most people will pay less than they did before.  I just don't see this being an issue that inflames the populace like that. 

Most taxpayers, even the highly educated, tend not to understand how the tax code even works, so whatever the effect on them personally, they probably won't make the connection when it comes time to write a check to the IRS, or when receiving their refund.

I view tax policy as electorally neutral.  It's something that the donor class cares a lot about, but most average voters base their votes on more tangible, emotional issues like the economy.

EDIT:  Taxes are only increased on 7% of taxpayers, not 7% of the population as I first stated.  So if only 55% of Americans pay any Federal tax, that means less than 4% of Americans will see their taxes go up.
 
Obama aides say Beto O'Rourke reminds them of the ex-president. Obama agrees.

Rep. Beto O'Rourke may have lost in Texas, but he's winning in Obamaland.

Aides to the former president and the man himself say O'Rourke's campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, gave them flashbacks to Obama's precocious political rise and has positioned the young white congressman as an early if unlikely heir to the first black president's "hope and change" mantle.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/el...to-o-rourke-reminds-them-ex-president-n942576

 
eyephone said:
Obama aides say Beto O'Rourke reminds them of the ex-president. Obama agrees.

Rep. Beto O'Rourke may have lost in Texas, but he's winning in Obamaland.

Aides to the former president and the man himself say O'Rourke's campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, gave them flashbacks to Obama's precocious political rise and has positioned the young white congressman as an early if unlikely heir to the first black president's "hope and change" mantle.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/el...to-o-rourke-reminds-them-ex-president-n942576
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Please, please, please...let it be Beto!!  Trump will make him cry like a little girl!!
 
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