Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[usctrojancpa]

Higher interest rates might actually be causing lower inventories. It's best to just stay where you at since you would be paying more for the same home you bought couple years back since the price is pretty much the same with 2 or 3 times higher interest rates. Rent prices are also ridiculous so why even rent if you can pay less with bigger home you're currently in. If you got cash and just buy homes for fun, then this doesn't really apply, but I'm speaking from the majority of American home buyer/seller's position.

I totally agree with you, the higher interest rates are a main driver of the low inventory issue. I have several clients who want to upgrade to a larger home but they just can't mentally get there from a rate in the 2s to a rate in the 6s even though they can do financially, it's more of a mental hurdle. If rates come down materially, we'll begin to see more inventory but until then we'll be dealing with what we have now for the time being.

 

[sleepy5136]

I think we also need to look at what is causing inventory levels to be this high. Unemployment at 3.7%. If unemployment doubles, you'll start to see more inventory in the market regardless of what rates are despite them having a rate of < 4%

 

[OCtoSV]

I think we also need to look at what is causing inventory levels to be this high. Unemployment at 3.7%. If unemployment doubles, you'll start to see more inventory in the market regardless of what rates are despite them having a rate of < 4%

Job losses are happening though it’s a white collar problem. So many “cost center” jobs are being eliminated or are in process of being eliminated, especially in technology companies, that the financial pressures for those losing their jobs will manifest over the next 18-24 mo. There are also people that bought with 7/1 ARMs in 2015/16/17 that never bothered to refi when they could that will be a source of inventory. I just hope the market can stay afloat for another 3 yrs until I plan to sell.

 

[CalBears96]

I think we also need to look at what is causing inventory levels to be this high. Unemployment at 3.7%. If unemployment doubles, you'll start to see more inventory in the market regardless of what rates are despite them having a rate of < 4%

Nah dude, higher unemployment rate has LITTLE EFFECT on buyers in Irvine. Martin can tell you that most buyers in Irvine are either cash buyer or those who put down 30%-40% and are in very strong position even if they lost their job.

Inventory levels in Irvine, and most likely in OC, will remain low as long as rates stay high.

 

[CalBears96]

I totally agree with you, the higher interest rates are a main driver of the low inventory issue. I have several clients who want to upgrade to a larger home but they just can't mentally get there from a rate in the 2s to a rate in the 6s even though they can do financially, it's more of a mental hurdle. If rates come down materially, we'll begin to see more inventory but until then we'll be dealing with what we have now for the time being.

Since we really really want to upgrade to Cielo, it's very easy for us to overcome that mental hurdle, even if we have to borrow at 7%.

For me, it's very simple, home price is more important that mortgage rate. I can alway refinance 3-5 years later when the rates get low enough, but I can't change the home price. So even if I have to pay higher interest right now, I'm okay with that.

 

[OCtoSV]

Nah dude, higher unemployment rate has LITTLE EFFECT on buyers in Irvine. Martin can tell you that most buyers in Irvine are either cash buyer or those who put down 30%-40% and are in very strong position even if they lost their job.

Inventory levels in Irvine, and most likely in OC, will remain low as long as rates stay high.

Maybe not yet but the non cash buyers won’t be able to get loans until now they lose their jobs

 

[sleepy5136]

Nah dude, higher unemployment rate has LITTLE EFFECT on buyers in Irvine. Martin can tell you that most buyers in Irvine are either cash buyer or those who put down 30%-40% and are in very strong position even if they lost their job.

Inventory levels in Irvine, and most likely in OC, will remain low as long as rates stay high.

When unemployment doubles, the economy will not be doing well. When economy isn't doing well people are less inclined to take risks. That includes foreigners buying RE overseas.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think we also need to look at what is causing inventory levels to be this high. Unemployment at 3.7%. If unemployment doubles, you'll start to see more inventory in the market regardless of what rates are despite them having a rate of < 4%

Doubtful.

If anything, 2000s showed us you can kick the can forever.

Last to go is the house... remember all the foreclosures that were suppose to create TONS of inventory back then? I don't think it happened as bad as people wanted it to (especially me... not a ton of 3CWGs game onto the market like I was hoping).

 

[CalBears96]

When unemployment doubles, the economy will not be doing well. When economy isn't doing well people are less inclined to take risks. That includes foreigners buying RE overseas.

Basically, everything you just stated there has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with inventory levels.

1. Fewer foreign buyers has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with inventory levels. It just mean fewer buyers. It doesn't mean more sellers.
2. What does people are less inclined to take risks have anything to do with inventory levels. You're saying people are less inclined to buy, right? Still has nothing to do with inventory levels.

Like I said, even when economy isn't doing well, Irvine and OC buyers are well position enough that they don't need to sell. And you stated that people are less inclined to take risks, which means they're less inclined to upgrade a bigger home, so even less inclined to sell.

You keep saying that when unemployment doubles, we'll see higher inventory levels, but you haven't given a valid reason for that.

 

[sleepy5136]

Basically, everything you just stated there has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with inventory levels.

1. Fewer foreign buyers has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with inventory levels. It just mean fewer buyers. It doesn't mean more sellers.
2. What does people are less inclined to take risks have anything to do with inventory levels. You're saying people are less inclined to buy, right? Still has nothing to do with inventory levels.

Like I said, even when economy isn't doing well, Irvine and OC buyers are well position enough that they don't need to sell. And you stated that people are less inclined to take risks, which means they're less inclined to upgrade a bigger home, so even less inclined to sell.

You keep saying that when unemployment doubles, we'll see higher inventory levels, but you haven't given a valid reason for that.

When more people are unemployed it will cause more inventory and sellers.

If people are are less inclined to take risks during an economic downturn; that means more inventory will accumulate.

No, people that are jobless will need to sell because they don’t have a job to pay the mortgage and not enough savings to handle the mortgage as well as their monthly expenses. So more inventory will be on the market.

Try google how many families can afford a 1k emergency. You will be shocked.

 

[sleepy5136]

Doubtful.

If anything, 2000s showed us you can kick the can forever.

Last to go is the house... remember all the foreclosures that were suppose to create TONS of inventory back then? I don't think it happened as bad as people wanted it to (especially me... not a ton of 3CWGs game onto the market like I was hoping).

I don’t think Powell cares.

 

[CalBears96]

When more people are unemployed it will cause more inventory and sellers.

If people are are less inclined to take risks during an economic downturn; that means more inventory will accumulate.

No, people that are jobless will need to sell because they don’t have a job to pay the mortgage and not enough savings to handle the mortgage as well as their monthly expenses. So more inventory will be on the market.

Try google how many families can afford a 1k emergency. You will be shocked.

Except those families who can't afford a 1k emergency don't OWN a house in Irvine/OC. The ones who don't have that emergency funds are the ones RENTING elsewhere.

It's like you're not even trying to understand the situation.

 

[CalBears96]

I don’t think Powell cares.

Powell cares when the economy goes down the drain.

 

[sleepy5136]

Except those families who can't afford a 1k emergency don't OWN a house in Irvine/OC. The ones who don't have that emergency funds are the ones RENTING elsewhere.

It's like you're not even trying to understand the situation.

Data points please. Stop spitting out assumptions based on your own opinion. Also, the economy doesn’t revolve around OC/Irvine.

Faced with a $1,000 emergency, most Americans say they wouldn't have the money

Americans are increasingly relying on their credit card to cover any emergency expenses, a new Bankrate survey said.

www.cbsnews.com

Homeownership Rate in the United States

Graph and download economic data for Homeownership Rate in the United States (RHORUSQ156N) from Q1 1965 to Q2 2024 about homeownership, housing, rate, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

4 in 10 Americans can afford a 1k emergency expense. That means 60% cannot. 66% own homes in America.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I don’t think Powell cares.

Maybe you weren't around then... but not only did the Fed care... they took steps to save housing... where do you think those record low interest rates came from?

And since this is housing specific... how many FCBs have jobs that would be at risk.... or even have US jobs in the first place?

 

[CalBears96]

Data points please. Stop spitting out assumptions based on your own opinion. Also, the economy doesn’t revolve around OC/Irvine.

Faced with a $1,000 emergency, most Americans say they wouldn't have the money

Americans are increasingly relying on their credit card to cover any emergency expenses, a new Bankrate survey said.

www.cbsnews.com

Homeownership Rate in the United States

Graph and download economic data for Homeownership Rate in the United States (RHORUSQ156N) from Q1 1965 to Q2 2024 about homeownership, housing, rate, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

4 in 10 Americans can afford a 1k emergency expense. That means 60% cannot. 66% own homes in America.

Look at the damn topic title: Irvine Housing Prediction.

Obviously, we're talking about Irvine (and to some extend, OC) Housing in this topic. So we're discussing inventory levels in Irvine.

Again, stop linking the rest of America to Irvine. Do you actually think that Irvine homeowners, most of whom are millionaires, don't have 1k emergency expense? REALLY?!??

I'll have to say this: USE your brain.

 

[CalBears96]

Also, according to the article you linked:

"Adults between 18 to 26 as well as Americans who earn less than $50,000 said it would be more difficult for them to pony up $1,000 for an emergency compared with older and higher-earning respondents, according to the survey, which polled more than 1,000 people in mid-December."

What does it tell you? Younger people who earn shit don't have emergency funds. Older and higher-earning respondents don't have this problem.

That survey is useless.

 

[sleepy5136]

Powell cares when the economy goes down the drain.

No,

Except those families who can't afford a 1k emergency don't OWN a house in Irvine/OC. The ones who don't have that emergency funds are the ones RENTING elsewhere.

It's like you're not even trying to understand the situation.

The economy doesn’t revolve around Irvine/OC bro. Irvine/OC will follow macro trend.

Look at the damn topic title: Irvine Housing Prediction.

Obviously, we're talking about Irvine (and to some extend, OC) Housing in this topic. So we're discussing inventory levels in Irvine.

Again, stop linking the rest of America to Irvine. Do you actually think that Irvine homeowners, most of whom are millionaires, don't have 1k emergency expense? REALLY?!??

I'll have to say this: USE your brain.

I honestly don't know and I will not act like I know everything like you.

Who cares if they are millionaires? If the economy is bad, overseas people will derisk and may want to sell their homes and those homes will be in the market. More inventory will naturally occur and macro trends will impact local markets. Will it be as bad as other markets? I don't know. But to say it's "impossible" that is pure arrogance backed by no facts. Which is no surprise knowing you

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It's not impossible... but history (which is factual) has proven Irvine to be very resilient.

Irvine was supposed to tank over 50% in the last major downturn... it did not... Irvine was supposed to be in pain in the last mini downturn (as predicted by LL and eyephone), it did not.

Rising interest rates were supposed to destroy home prices... it still hasn't.

Overseas people did not liquidate 15 years ago... they most likely will not liquidate now or in the future... and that's also because Irvine has a history for recovering faster than other OC cities.

But, sure, you never know... in real estate, anything can happen..

 

[sleepy5136]

It's not impossible... but history (which is factual) has proven Irvine to be very resilient.

Irvine was supposed to tank over 50% in the last major downturn... it did not... Irvine was supposed to be in pain in the last mini downturn (as predicted by LL and eyephone), it did not.

Rising interest rates were supposed to destroy home prices... it still hasn't.

Overseas people did not liquidate 15 years ago... they most likely will not liquidate now or in the future... and that's also because Irvine has a history for recovering faster than other OC cities.

But, sure, you never know... in real estate, anything can happen..

I actually don't know because I was too young. Did Irvine not slow in 2006-2009? It might not have been as impacted as others.

Interest rates being high in general isn't hurting any homeowners in America because of what I said before. So I'm not surprised about that. But I haven't witnessed an high unemployment situation in OC to comment.