Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

Where will Irvine housing prices be in one year?

  • Down over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Down 20%

    Votes: 20 19.0%

  • Down 10%

    Votes: 40 38.1%

  • Down 5%

    Votes: 31 29.5%

  • Flat

    Votes: 37 35.2%

  • Up 5%

    Votes: 15 14.3%

  • Up 10%

    Votes: 5 4.8%

  • Up 20%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Up over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other (please specify in post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .
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sleepy5136 said:
No,

The economy doesn’t revolve around Irvine/OC bro. Irvine/OC will follow macro trend.

I honestly don't know and I will not act like I know everything like you.

Who cares if they are millionaires? If the economy is bad, overseas people will derisk and may want to sell their homes and those homes will be in the market. More inventory will naturally occur and macro trends will impact local markets. Will it be as bad as other markets? I don't know. But to say it's "impossible" that is pure arrogance backed by no facts. Which is no surprise knowing you ;)
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Funny coming from someone who likes to make shit up.

When did I say that the economy revolves around Irvine/OC?

I said that unemployment rate will not force Irvine/OC to increase inventory levels because these homeowners are well positioned. As Martin already stated, the only reason his clients would sell is to upgrade to a bigger home. They're not selling because they HAVE TO, but because they WANT TO.

But you keep bring up unrelated things, like emergency funds, which doesn't apply to Irvine/OC homeowners.

1. Why would a homeowner want to sell a home when the interest rates don't AFFECT them?
2. Why would foreign cash buyers want to sell their homes when the interest rates don't AFFECT them?

The only thing that the de-risking factor you mention about foreign buyers is getting INTO the market. So that just means fewer buyers.
 
CalBears96 said:
Funny coming from someone who likes to make shit up.

When did I say that the economy revolves around Irvine/OC?

I said that unemployment rate will not force Irvine/OC to increase inventory levels because these homeowners are well positioned. As Martin already stated, the only reason his clients would sell is to upgrade to a bigger home. They're not selling because they HAVE TO, but because they WANT TO.

But you keep bring up unrelated things, like emergency funds, which doesn't apply to Irvine/OC homeowners.

1. Why would a homeowner want to sell a home when the interest rates don't AFFECT them?
2. Why would foreign cash buyers want to sell their homes when the interest rates don't AFFECT them?

The only thing that the de-risking factor you mention about foreign buyers is getting INTO the market. So that just means fewer buyers.
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Cool story bro.
 
I dont pay attention to news articles about predicting future housing market. It’s all BS. I trust information I observe around me.

My brother said to me over the weekend that a few of his coworkers in Bay area are planning to move down to Irvine. I asked him why Irvine, why not surrounding cities? He said they just love Irvine.

I went to this open house (https://redf.in/RUYLAx) in my neighborhood on Sunday and there were at least 4 parties showed up during the 10 minutes I was there. Listing agent told me that at least 3 buyers planning to submit their offers that night. Folks, this is a $2.5 million home and there are that many people wanting to jump in.

My nephew who is about to complete master degree in EE at UCLA this year said he and his fiance who is doing residency at UCI hospital plan to settle in Irvine within a couple of years. Their colleagues also express the same interest.

There are just too many people wanting to live here and we are about to run out of land for new homes. Unless Irvine is turned into shiit like santa ana or lake forest, keep on dreaming about big crash.
 
The best is folks who used to work on-site at those NorCal tech companies and started working remote because of pandemic so moved down to Irvine or OC since then. They make San Francisco salary with Irvine lifestyle. Maybe their raise won't go as higher anymore though, but I know people who did this.
 
sleepy5136 said:
I actually don't know because I was too young. Did Irvine not slow in 2006-2009? It might not have been as impacted as others.

Interest rates being high in general isn't hurting any homeowners in America because of what I said before. So I'm not surprised about that. But I haven't witnessed an high unemployment situation in OC to comment.
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Irvine prices went down about 20% +/- from the peak in 2006/2007 to 2009/2011 (we had a bottom bottom in 2009 and 2011 after the $8k tax credit expired) while other surrounding cities went down 30-40%. Irvine prices recovered first and went higher than most all other OC cities.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Irvine prices went down about 20% +/- from the peak in 2006/2007 to 2009/2011 (we had a bottom bottom in 2009 and 2011 after the $8k tax credit expired) while other surrounding cities went down 30-40%. Irvine prices recovered first and went higher than most all other OC cities.
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Just quoting for a certain someone. :)

A big factor for Irvine that other cities don't have is the new housing stock. I didn't realize how much more land they had in the eastern Portola Springs area and the northern Orchard Hills. They still haven't even started working on the area around the Spectrum near Lake Forest (Irvine Heritage?).

If @sleepy5136 already bought in Irvine... you shouldn't really worry about what's going to happen.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Irvine prices went down about 20% +/- from the peak in 2006/2007 to 2009/2011 (we had a bottom bottom in 2009 and 2011 after the $8k tax credit expired) while other surrounding cities went down 30-40%. Irvine prices recovered first and went higher than most all other OC cities.
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That’s super interesting to hear. Thanks for pulling the data. So based on those numbers, Irvine/OC wasn’t immune to macroeconomic events. So we can let the data speak and not someone who wants to throw generalizations without supporting data 🙂
 
@sleepy5136: It's not just data... it's experience and history.

Everyone thought Irvine was in for a big crash back in the early 2000s, government intervention prevented a good amount of it and Irvine came out better because the owners were more equipped to handle the drops.

No one is saying Irvine is immune... but it can handle macro events better than others, even better than Newport and beach cities that were touted as safe havens by a certain someone (you can search for the data that supports this in threads that have discussed this).

LL hates when I say this but in my search for good 3CWG SFRs during that time... there were not many available... most people were holding out. Many of the good ones were not more than 15% off peak pricing and any that were 20% discounted or higher were either old, in a bad location, not in good shape or not a good floorplan.

Even new housing paused for a while (which was unthinkable back then) in order to allow prices to stabilize. Orchard Hills was supposed to open back then but got delayed and villages that were under construction retooled their housing stock to capitalize on lower prices with more units in the same land (hence the birth of motor courts/small-zero sideyards/backyards/muli-level detached condos and the death of driveways/living spaces).
 
sleepy5136 said:
That’s super interesting to hear. Thanks for pulling the data. So based on those numbers, Irvine/OC wasn’t immune to macroeconomic events. So we can let the data speak and not someone who wants to throw generalizations without supporting data 🙂
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You realize that this time, it's different, right?

Irvine wasn't as well positioned back in 2006/2007 as it is now. The main problem with the 2008 financial crisis was the loans practically given to anyone, and when the loans started adjusting, a lot of the people weren't able to pay.

However, this time, most homeowners in general, and the more affluence area in particularly, are much better positioned due to the low rates that were LOCKED in for 15 or 30 years. Even if they lost their jobs, they would NOT be forced to sell their homes.
 
CalBears96 said:
You realize that this time, it's different, right?

Irvine wasn't as well positioned back in 2006/2007 as it is now. The main problem with the 2008 financial crisis was the loans practically given to anyone, and when the loans started adjusting, a lot of the people weren't able to pay.

However, this time, most homeowners in general, and the more affluence area in particularly, are much better positioned due to the low rates that were LOCKED in for 15 or 30 years. Even if they lost their jobs, they would NOT be forced to sell their homes.
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Who are you to speak for anyone but yourself?
 
I picked FLAT last year....and Irvine is down <5%? Close enuf.

1686068733593.jpeg

5 months ago I was gonna take off cleo.
 
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I'm not in a market so I don't know what's going on much recently, but are there loans that offer lower rates with some conditions or something? How do these folks buy with 7% interest rates?
 
Mety said:
I'm not in a market so I don't know what's going on much recently, but are there loans that offer lower rates with some conditions or something? How do these folks buy with 7% interest rates?
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Banks with jumbo loan portfolio still gives low 6%. I believe Martin said his clients got 5.875%?

Also, if you do some type of bank relationship, like transferring over a certain amount (could be a combination of cash and stocks), you get a discount as well. When I bought Bluffs last year, I transferred $500k over to Citibank and got 0.375% discount. If you can do $1M, then you get 0.5% discount.
 
Mety said:
I'm not in a market so I don't know what's going on much recently, but are there loans that offer lower rates with some conditions or something? How do these folks buy with 7% interest rates?
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honestly, I don't know.
Talking to my co worker today
With similar monthly payment, I was able to procure a house 2.5 years ago, and the most he can afford to today is a 600k town house.

Or maybe that's the key, new generation can't afford houses anymore, unless you are born in a rich family or making dual 100k+ income.
 
CalBears96 said:
Tell me, why would anyone want to sell their homes if they don't have to? And then what? Rent and watch the home price soar? Seriously, USE your brain.
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It's tiring debating with you. Why would someone sell their home if they lose their job? Anyway, you win as always man. Congrats!!!
 
Irvine has about a week to drop 10% (the most popular choice).

It looks like it's flattish or slightly down.

And contrary to LL's opinion, most of the TI membership expected some type of drop from last year... but even the high interest rates didn't hit as hard as it was supposed to.

Should I start readying a 23-24 poll?
 
I feel like things have been trending solidly up over the last couple months in some of the places I’m tracking in Irvine.
 

Recession will cut Orange County home prices 11%, Chapman forecasts​

Orange County’s economy will sour along with the nation as local home prices fall by 11% in the next six months, Chapman University economists forecast.

“We’re even more confident that there will be a recession,” said Chapman economic professor Jim Doti, who predicted a late 2023 downturn in the school’s December forecast.

The culprit is no surprise: the Federal Reserve’s boosting of interest rates. Chapman’s downcast view sees the pricier financing throttling an overheated national economy that produced the worst bout of inflation in four decades, Those tight-money policies will sharply curtail hiring and real estate investments as 2023 winds down.

And Chapman isn’t alone. Cal State Fullerton economists predicted in April a mild, “garden-variety” recession that will stall the local economy for the rest of 2023 and through 2024..

www.ocregister.com

Recession will cut Orange County home prices 11%, Chapman forecasts

“We’re even more confident that there will be a recession,” said Chapman economic professor James Doti.
www.ocregister.com www.ocregister.com
 
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