Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

Where will Irvine housing prices be in one year?

  • Down over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Down 20%

    Votes: 20 19.0%

  • Down 10%

    Votes: 40 38.1%

  • Down 5%

    Votes: 31 29.5%

  • Flat

    Votes: 37 35.2%

  • Up 5%

    Votes: 15 14.3%

  • Up 10%

    Votes: 5 4.8%

  • Up 20%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Up over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other (please specify in post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
irvinehomeowner said:
What is Chapman's track record?

I guess it's time for a new poll as it looks like prices were up from last June.
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2 friends (female OC execs - (banker and CFO) were at the event at the PC. Technology seemed to be the only sector exception to the recession call.
 
I'm sorry to have let you all down with a correct prediction again.

The number of page views on this thread has skyrocketed due to IHO, Testy, and Anal repeatedly checking my prediction from last year and trying to find some way to spin it in their favor.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Irvine prices went down about 20% +/- from the peak in 2006/2007 to 2009/2011 (we had a bottom bottom in 2009 and 2011 after the $8k tax credit expired) while other surrounding cities went down 30-40%. Irvine prices recovered first and went higher than most all other OC cities.
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sleepy5136 said:
That’s super interesting to hear. Thanks for pulling the data. So based on those numbers, Irvine/OC wasn’t immune to macroeconomic events. So we can let the data speak and not someone who wants to throw generalizations without supporting data 🙂
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USC is only giving you the numbers for SFR's. If you include condos/townhomes then Irvine's drop was closer to 30% +/-.

Not only that but USC is pushing a falsehood when it comes to his claim that Irvine went higher than most all other OC cities. Here you can see that Laguna and Newport both went higher than Irvine on an actual and percentage basis.

Irvine ~ Jan 2012 $510k --> Apr 2022 $1,430k = 180% increase
Laguna Beach ~ Jan 2012 $865k --> Apr 2022 $2,948 = 241% increase
Newport Beach ~ Jan 2012 $1,133 --> Apr 2022 $3,338 = 195% increase

1690394407877.png
 
Even poor Santa Ana outpaced Irvine in percentage terms. How sad is that?

Irvine ~ Jan 2012 $510k --> Apr 2022 $1,430k = 180% increase
Santa Ana ~ Jan 2012 $271k --> Apr 2022 $775 = 186% increase

1690395652980.png
 
Liar Loan said:
USC is only giving you the numbers for SFR's. If you include condos/townhomes then Irvine's drop was closer to 30% +/-.

Not only that but USC is pushing a falsehood when it comes to his claim that Irvine went higher than most all other OC cities. Here you can see that Laguna and Newport both went higher than Irvine on an actual and percentage basis.

Irvine ~ Jan 2012 $510k --> Apr 2022 $1,430k = 180% increase
Laguna Beach ~ Jan 2012 $865k --> Apr 2022 $2,948 = 241% increase
Newport Beach ~ Jan 2012 $1,133 --> Apr 2022 $3,338 = 195% increase

View attachment 9069
Click to expand...

That's why I said "most all" OC cities. The beach cities like Newport and Laguna will outperform Irvine because of being closer to the water.

Btw, what happened to the downturn that we were supposed to get in 2023? Why are prices up 6%+ this year?
 
usctrojancpa said:
That's why I said "most all" OC cities. The beach cities like Newport and Laguna will outperform Irvine because of being closer to the water.

Btw, what happened to the downturn that we were supposed to get in 2023? Why are prices up 6%+ this year?
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Is it up 6% from January of this year or is it up 6% from this time last year? If the former, it could possibly be seasonality? ;)
 
Liar Loan said:
Even poor Santa Ana outpaced Irvine in percentage terms. How sad is that?

Irvine ~ Jan 2012 $510k --> Apr 2022 $1,430k = 180% increase
Santa Ana ~ Jan 2012 $271k --> Apr 2022 $775 = 186% increase

View attachment 9070
Click to expand...


You schlubs need to listen to LiarLoan.
I like to move the goalposts and make my cost basis at a random point in time, like a random 2012 start date to compare Irvine.
Hence you ding dongs should have bought in Santa Ana, where Liar Loan lives!
 
I like how LL tries to come back months/years later hoping everyone forgot as he pushes his lies, I did this Newport vs Irvine analysis during the '08 drop:

When would be next housing Bottom?

I don't get the Irvine bashing. I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.
www.talkirvine.com

I used LL's same exact methodology of picking the high and low and guess what? Newport dropped 46% vs Irvine's 28%:

I'll do Newport because I used to want to live there:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Newport_Beach-California/market-trends/

High: ~Jul 07 - $1.6m
Low: ~Jul 12 - $862,500 (there is a lower low in 09 of $800k but I wanted to keep the time frame similar to Irvine)
Drop: 46%
Click to expand...

And LL could not counter (I even looked up other OC beach cities which he claimed as better "safe havens" than Irvine and those had bigger drops too).

In fact, he even admitted it:

Liar Loan said:
Irvine did fare better than other areas in OC.
Click to expand...

So there you go... in LL's own words... a simple search on TI will tell you the truth.

And BTW... that 2018-2020 "drop"... you said yourself that price corrections could take almost 5 years... what do the numbers look like from 2018 to 2022-23?

LL will now go back in his hole for a few months until he can come up with another way to troll.
 
usctrojancpa said:
My mistake, up over 7% since 12/31/22 and up over 1% since 6/30/22.
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When I kept saying TayMo was raising prices here.......... but now.............. might be showing signs of some cracks. So it would seem to me that if the economy is doing so well and there is no recession (cuz the fed who knows everything...lol! said so yesterday), the 10 year bond should rise and break from that range which has supported new home builders with buy downs to 5% or less which it seems should make it difficult to buy those rates down that low and there ya go............ housing suddenly peaked out with a great economy. (TayMo starting to send emails encouraging people to come on out and see us, etc just like they did at the peak) and maybe sideways is the best we get with flippers getting caught.
 
usctrojancpa said:
That's why I said "most all" OC cities. The beach cities like Newport and Laguna will outperform Irvine because of being closer to the water.

Btw, what happened to the downturn that we were supposed to get in 2023? Why are prices up 6%+ this year?
Click to expand...
And I suppose Santa Ana outperformed because it is closer to taquerias... lol... "Most all" means most all but the data shows Irvine is middle of the pack. The cities it did outperform, it did not do so by much. Factor in mello/HOA and Irvine buyers came out even further behind.

I don't know what happened to the downturn in 2023, but I do know that my prediction of higher prices has been 100% correct.... so thank you for confirming it! (IHO, Testy, and Anal still refuse to congratulate me.)
 
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