Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

Where will Irvine housing prices be in one year?

  • Down over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Down 20%

    Votes: 20 19.0%

  • Down 10%

    Votes: 40 38.1%

  • Down 5%

    Votes: 31 29.5%

  • Flat

    Votes: 37 35.2%

  • Up 5%

    Votes: 15 14.3%

  • Up 10%

    Votes: 5 4.8%

  • Up 20%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Up over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other (please specify in post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .
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Mety said:
I haven't followed too close on the market trend, but I hear Irvine home prices haven't really dropped like other areas. Is that true?
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The Median Home Price in Irvine is falling faster than Orange County at large.

1671218714813.png

But PPSF is falling more slowly in Irvine than Orange County at large.

1671218891358.png
Either way, anybody that closed on a home in the first half of this year has lost money.
 
Liar Loan said:
The Median Home Price in Irvine is falling faster than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8872

But PPSF is falling more slowly in Irvine than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8873
Either way, anybody that closed on a home in the first half of this year has lost money.
Click to expand...
You know I'm Mr. Bear however I have been pretty impressed with the resilience of Irvine pricing - I think CB hit it on the head in terms of FCBs limiting supply. That said the vast majority of what is transacting is low end stuff hence the lower median. I am not seeing the collapse in $/sq ft I'm seeing in areas like Laguna Niguel.
 
Based on that Redfin chart, median prices will have to drop to high $900ks or PPSF has to be in the $550/sft range?

That puts 2000sft homes over $1m... isn't that still too high?
 
Liar Loan said:
The Median Home Price in Irvine is falling faster than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8872

But PPSF is falling more slowly in Irvine than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8873
Either way, anybody that closed on a home in the first half of this year has lost money.
Click to expand...

LL, the median price per square foot for both Irvine and Orange County topped out in May 2022. The median price per square fott for Irvine went from $729/sf to $660/sf or a 9.5% decrease while the median price per SF for Orange County went from $631/sf to $569/sf or a 9.8% decrease. From what I'm seeing and hearing, most cities outside of Irvine are suffering a little more than Irvine with less buyers. I'll have a year-end write-up a week or so after year-end on Irvine.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Based on that Redfin chart, median prices will have to drop to high $900ks or PPSF has to be in the $550/sft range?

That puts 2000sft homes over $1m... isn't that still too high?
Click to expand...

Historically, these busts always end in something close to rental parity being achieved, so a combination of lower sales prices, increased rents, or declining interest rates could all play a role before a bottom is reached.

usctrojancpa said:
LL, the median price per square foot for both Irvine and Orange County topped out in May 2022. The median price per square fott for Irvine went from $729/sf to $660/sf or a 9.5% decrease while the median price per SF for Orange County went from $631/sf to $569/sf or a 9.8% decrease. From what I'm seeing and hearing, most cities outside of Irvine are suffering a little more than Irvine with less buyers. I'll have a year-end write-up a week or so after year-end on Irvine.
Click to expand...
I think Redfin does a 3-month rolling average so their numbers may not align exactly with yours. Also, they are only displaying through the end of October, and you probably have more current stats.
 
Liar Loan said:
Historically, these busts always end in something close to rental parity being achieved, so a combination of lower sales prices, increased rents, or declining interest rates could all play a role before a bottom is reached.


I think Redfin does a 3-month rolling average so their numbers may not align exactly with yours. Also, they are only displaying through the end of October, and you probably have more current stats.
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Redfin's numbers can be off at time. My data comes from the Infosparks Market Statistics section in MLS through 11/30/22. I think I predicted back in Jan 2022 that we would be up in early 2022 and then end up around flat for 2022 by the end of the year and it's looking like that'll be a pretty close prediction. I do see some additional downside in pricing but how much will depend on where rates go, if they drop that will cushion price declines. The reality is that the bid/ask spread between buyers and sellers is growing and only those properties that show well and that are priced right sell in a timely manner while the stubborn seller/dreamer listings linger on the market like a bad habit.
 
AccidentalAnalytics said:
I followed LLs advice and didn’t buy a home in 2021. I feel so much better as a renter in 2023. Thanks LL for ensuring my financial freedom from the debacle of an Irvine housing crash.
Click to expand...
Thanks LL burner account. :)

When in 2021? According to Redfin, seems like prices are up from April 2021 to today:

1682627749338.png

Don't know how accurate this chart is... but this just illustrates how hard it is to time things.
 
AccidentalAnalytics said:
I followed LLs advice and didn’t buy a home in 2021. I feel so much better as a renter in 2023. Thanks LL for ensuring my financial freedom from the debacle of an Irvine housing crash.
Click to expand...
Only fools follow LL's advice. And you just outed yourself as a fool.

IF you had not followed LL's advice and bought a house in 2021, you would selling your house now for a 40% gain and go back to being a renter, A LOT richer. If you put down 20%, that 40% gain would be 200% gain.

Here's the thing that you uninformed fool don't understand. Housing price didn't take off until October 2021 and peaked in 2022.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Thanks LL burner account. :)

When in 2021? According to Redfin, seems like prices are up from April 2021 to today:

View attachment 8998

Don't know how accurate this chart is... but this just illustrates how hard it is to time things.
Click to expand...
Home prices were pretty stable, slowly rising, until late 2021. It really took off in October 2021 and peaked in April 2022.

I was getting Bluffs price sheet from September and could see that prices were only prices didn't change much before that, but after October, they jumped like $20k to $50k per phase. And people who signed up for priority list from April to July were getting calls right away. It was only after the summer that the list got longer.
 
We need more sarcasm.
I can't believe you guys thought he was actually thanking LL.

It's pretty obvious isn't it?......I'm glad I'm a renter in 2023???

hello!...no one wants to be a renter.

The place I rented out in 2018 for $4,700 is currently estimated at $7,000 from Zillow.
 
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