Orchard Hills - Capella by Taylor Morrison

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woodburyowner said:
Paris said:
What La Vita homes sold for $1.5mil?
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I went in Feb 2015 and still have the price sheet.  1.45 starting for both Plan 1 and 3 (3400 sq ft and 3557 sq ft).  This tract opened up mid 2014 so I assume the prices were even lower during the first few phases.  But even in Feb 2015, there were still models available for 1.45.

If you look up the appreciation / sales pace for La Vita properties vs. Capella you will see a huge difference.
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I went during phase 1-3 and the prices were starting lowest $1.58. Maybe those later models were smaller nonview lots in later phases closer to the toll roads. But definitely were not in $1.4 range in the first phases when we were looking.
We purchased our capella home for high $1.2 range for a view lot so even at $1.45 that was a big price point difference.
At the end of the day doesn't matter what the appreciation is until the day you choose to sell your house. Unless of course people bought for a quick flip. We bought a home to live in for quite awhile.
 
La Vita phase 1 pricing for plans 1 and 3 were in the high $1.4mm closer to $1.5mm.  btw, these two neighborhoods are apples and oranges.  Most of the lots at La Vita are between 6,000 sqft and 15,000 sqft with living spaces between 3,400 sqft and 4,000 sqft.  Capella lots are 3,000 sqft to 4,000 sqft and between 2,900 and 3,300 sqft of living space.    Not sure, you can compare these two.  Maybe between Messina, La Vita, and Saviero.  For Capella, probably better comparison to Strada or Varenna for future appreciation.

Anyways, Other then the couple of early phases with view lots, it's gonna be break even with all of the closing costs for most of the OH buyers at this point.  OH sales are slow at the moment and there are more new supplies coming.  The bulk of the appreciation will come once the neighborhood reaches built out in 2-3 years after Toll Brothers is done and gates are occupied by the guards with OH School expanding to K-8.
 
@ Paris...did they sell the Plan 1 model? I drove by today and noticed they took out the for sale sign in front. Also noticed they removed the big Capella sign in front of the neighborhood entrance.
 
Irvine Fanatic said:
@ Paris...did they sell the Plan 1 model? I drove by today and noticed they took out the for sale sign in front. Also noticed they removed the big Capella sign in front of the neighborhood entrance.
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Not sure. I thought I saw an open house for it last weekend. Unless they got a taker this week. That's the house at the end of the T and backing into the park and trail. It's a beautifully done home but unfortunately these flaws were holding up earlier sales. 
 
What a difference a year makes - in a few years time, once everything is built out, all buyers in OH will have some nice equity.
 
135 Bridle Path sold at $456/sq ft is not helping the comps.  They couldn't even get list price. What do you think is going on?
 
irvineboy said:
135 Bridle Path sold at $456/sq ft is not helping the comps.  They couldn't even get list price. What do you think is going on?
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Have you ever bought a resale before? Pay list price...? Next time I want to sell, please buy from me  ;D.  Better question to ask is why haven't the Strada resales been picked up. Those were the supposed hot sellers.
 
irvineboy said:
135 Bridle Path sold at $456/sq ft is not helping the comps.  They couldn't even get list price. What do you think is going on?
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This entire thread provides insight into why the price is so low.  Capella just isn't a desirable tract for reasons that have been discussed over and over in this thread.  This property provides a really good data point of what the true value of these properties are and how poor they have appreciated over the last few years. 
 
irvineboy said:
135 Bridle Path sold at $456/sq ft is not helping the comps.  They couldn't even get list price. What do you think is going on?
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All cash purchase with quick closing.  $15k under list price.  Not bad.  $1.5 million for 3,250 sqft with a small lot is not so bad for the Sellers these days. 
Anything >$1.25 million right now is pretty slow. 

 
aquabliss said:
Cheapest home in the best neighborhood is always the best investment.  Paris will do quite well and move to Hidden Canyon II in 2019.
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I guess the term cheapest in the best community isn't always true.  Woodburyowner states that most buyers don't like this neighborhood.
 
Irvine or Bust said:
irvineboy said:
135 Bridle Path sold at $456/sq ft is not helping the comps.  They couldn't even get list price. What do you think is going on?
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Have you ever bought a resale before? Pay list price...? Next time I want to sell, please buy from me  ;D.  Better question to ask is why haven't the Strada resales been picked up. Those were the supposed hot sellers.
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https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/422-Jersey-St-94114/home/1901803

Guess you're not familiar with resale, but it does happen. I've been following resale market in different locations in California. Certain cities can sell $100K+ over list price. Irvine might not be one of them, doesn't mean it doesn't happen. 
 
135 Bridle had a ton of upgrades though - they didn't get their return on the upgrades, which exceeded well over 100K, but I think the price was pretty decent considering how slow Capella was to sell out & the speed of that sale was remarkable.

Very different story compared to one year ago when it was listed, and they had to rent it out.

As soon as OH is all built out, more equity in these homes will be had. 2 years is just not enough time to have that much equity, unless you're talking about anomalies like La Vita appreciation.

I think people need to be reasonable, in most areas if you were to purchase a home, and forced to sell it within 2 years for unbeknownst reasons, then yes, you are more than likely to take a loss. Let's think realistically here, not every development is going to be like La Vita.

 
Laguna21 said:
135 Bridle had a ton of upgrades though - they didn't get their return on the upgrades, I think the price was pretty decent considering how slow Capella was to sell out & the speed of that sale was remarkable.

Very different story compared to one year ago when it was listed, and they had to rent it out.

As soon as OH is all built out, more equity in these homes will be had. 2 years is just not enough time to have that much equity, unless you're talking about anomalies like La Vita appreciation.
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Redfin shows the home was bought by previous owners in March 2015 for 1,464,500.  If the 200k in upgrades (as described in the listing) was not a part of the purchase price, then these owners probably are down close to 280K.  200k upgrades, 15-20K landscaping, about 70-75k in realtor fees/closing costs.  If the upgrade costs were included, that is still a 70-75k hit.  That is painful either way...
 
@hello - still a huge hit, but to be expected when turning around and selling a home within 2 years for obviously unforseen reasons. I doubt the sellers thought they would be selling in such a short period of time. From what I heard, was an unexpected out of state move.

I also think that 200K in upgrades is an exaggeration. They are taking into account the additional fee for the premium lot since that one was one of the larger lots & the landscaping fees.

All in all, they probably lost the landscaping cost & a tad more, but everything else was a wash. Not bad for a 2 year resale, not to mention, escrow has closed in less than 30 days on this home being listed, cash offer, in January? WOW.

No matter how much they lost, that is still an epic feat no matter how you dice it.

Those who are waiting in the wings for Irvine prices to fall, you will be priced out in a few years. Capella and all of OH will appreciate once built out as will everything else.
 
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/422-Jersey-St-94114/home/1901803

Guess you're not familiar with resale, but it does happen. I've been following resale market in different locations in California. Certain cities can sell $100K+ over list price. Irvine might not be one of them, doesn't mean it doesn't happen.


@irvineboy: If you are an investor, you can't go wrong with investing in San Francisco properties. They will always be sky high due to limitations on new construction in the city.

Of course, there are other investors saying it's extremely risky to invest due to SF being the highest risk city of being in a bubble. But if you are keeping it as a long-term rental, then I don't see it as an issue at all.

If I had to choose between investing in Irvine vs SF - SF hands down.
 
Laguna21 said:
@irvineboy: If you are an investor, you can't go wrong with investing in San Francisco properties. They will always be sky high due to limitations on new construction in the city.

Of course, there are other investors saying it's extremely risky to invest due to SF being the highest risk city of being in a bubble. But if you are keeping it as a long-term rental, then I don't see it as an issue at all.

If I had to choose between investing in Irvine vs SF - SF hands down.
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Really bad advice in my opinion.  Currently investment homes in SF will not cash flow and most likely will be cash flow negative.  Keeping a buy and hold investment long term that has negative cash flow will mean you will be losing money month over month for years as you hold the house.  So you have high opportunity costs due to high housing costs, you have negative cash flow and your only chance of making money is keeping the house for many years with the HOPE that it will appreciate significantly (even though SF is the riskiest city for being in a bubble).  Does that make any sense? 

If you had said that SF may be good for quick flips as you can get in quick, turn a flip and cash out right away, I wouldn't have faulted you. 

Based on how absolute and sure you were with your advice to Irvineboy, I assume you have put all your money into SF housing for long term buy and hold?

 
@hello:

Are you aware of how much places rent for in SF? An 800 square foot, 1 bedroom condo can rent for up to $4,000 a month.

If you have enough money to put down, and already have other properties with equity, and are holding in the long-term, it could be a great investment for the long-term.

Without getting into my portfolio, I have had great luck with real estate investments and rentals so far, & have gained a significant amount of equity in the last 5 years as well. But in it for the long-haul.

I've also known a lot of people who came from lower-middle class, saved up money, bought homes, and upgraded until they were renting out apartments and earning 6 figures a year, and were able to retire early with property investments & rental income. But it takes a lot of work, saving and dedication.

What do you suggest then if someone isn't to invest in a Place in SF then? Since you seem to have it all figured out.
 
Laguna21 said:
@hello - still a huge hit, but to be expected when turning around and selling a home within 2 years for obviously unforseen reasons. I doubt the sellers thought they would be selling in such a short period of time. From what I heard, was an unexpected out of state move.

I also think that 200K in upgrades is an exaggeration. They are taking into account the additional fee for the premium lot since that one was one of the larger lots & the landscaping fees.

All in all, they probably lost the landscaping cost & a tad more, but everything else was a wash. Not bad for a 2 year resale, not to mention, escrow has closed in less than 30 days on this home being listed, cash offer, in January? WOW.

No matter how much they lost, that is still an epic feat no matter how you dice it.

Those who are waiting in the wings for Irvine prices to fall, you will be priced out in a few years. Capella and all of OH will appreciate once built out as will everything else.
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Yup, cash buyer who closed in 11 days.
 
Laguna21 said:
@hello:

Are you aware of how much places rent for in SF? An 800 square foot, 1 bedroom condo can rent for up to $4,000 a month.

If you have enough money to put down, and already have other properties with equity, and are holding in the long-term, it could be a great investment.

Without getting into my portfolio, I have had great luck with real estate investments and rentals so far, & have gained a significant amount of equity in the last 5 years as well. But in it for the long-haul.

What do you suggest then if someone isn't to invest in a Place in SF then? Since you seem to have it all figured out.
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What are the cap rates for SF properties?  I'd venture to say probably around 3%.  If that's the case, you have negative leverage with an kind of loan that has an interest rate higher than your cap rate.  I rather buy in Johns Creek than in SF. 
 
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