Orchard Hills - Capella by Taylor Morrison
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The people across the street from our old Irvine home were like your friend, selling out in 2003. They did make a tidy sum but turned themselves into renters only to see their old home go up ANOTHER 25%.
They were correct, the market came down but didn't bottom out for nearly a decade after they sold out. Their old home sold again for about the same price they sold for. They thought it would come down even more and waited only to see the market go up. Convinced it had further to drop they kept renting.
I thought the market was too expensive many times but stayed put. When another neighbor sold in 2006 for what I considered an absolute ridiculous price, told my hubby we have to get out NOW. For once in my life I was right about it being too expensive. Of course a broken clock is right twice a day. We stayed put because my hubby wanted to see my youngest thru college, then prices dropped and dropped and dropped.
If I would have known they would have dropped that much I would have certainly sold, but no way to know the depth of the drop or if prices would even drop and in the meantime ya gotta live somewhere.
So when the house across the street came on the market, told my hubby we should get that house and he thought it would drop more but I was convinced it was a good price having gotten down to where it sold in 2003. Never did we expect prices to boomerang and we waited for a good fit. If we had only known the extent and relative quickness of the recovery we would have loaded up on real estate and flipped them for a profit or bought them for my kids.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda........ when the train leaves the station, it's too late. In the meantime u gotta live somewhere and u either pay rent to someone else or put it in your own place.
Who knows where/when a top comes or how deep prices may drop. All I know is interest rates rising for most people are a much bigger issue than prices dropping. You can always refinance (assuming u can qualify) for a lower rate but seeing rates rise when u don't own..... well woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Have you guys ever played the telephone game? One person whispers something to the next person and so on and so on. By the end of the chain, what the original person said is completely different from what the last person said. The point Im trying to make is that I never said the market is going to crash. All I said is that the house is overpriced. I gave very good reasons why. I realize you guys try to portray me as having an extreme point of view because I dont agree with your opinions, but really? Let me be clear. I never said the market is going to crash. Do I think it will correct in price? Absolutely yes. How much is anyones guess but I do not think this price appreciation is sustainable and in fact as I just mentioned, I think its needs to downward correct. This is not such an extreme view as you guys would like me to have.
You seem to think that you don't have an extreme point of view, but your posts historically show that you have posted, ad nauseam, the same repeated statements re: the Irvine home prices being too high. This has nothing to do with a telephone game, it's right there in your post history. Almost every single comment that has ever been made as been extremely negative & pessimistic toward the overall housing in Irvine, and the theme is, everything is overpriced according to you.
It's fine to have an opinion on the market, but a lot of it seems extremely biased toward wanting the market to correct itself so you can get in.
I dont deny saying that prices are too high in my opinion, since thats exactly what I said. What I never said (which you constantly accuse me of) is that prices are going to crash. Two really different ideas. So if you were to actually quote me right, then I wouldnt have a problem. However you wont do so because it doesnt really support your argument.
BTW you started this rant with me simply because I answered a question asked by someone regarding whether a particular house was overpriced...
How dare you post something actually related to Capella! Thought this was the pissing contest forum. Oops back to the topic.
So here's what's available at Capella on Redfin
Four move-in ready homes offered by TM perhttp://www.taylormorrison.com/new-h...rnia/irvine/capella-community/homes-ready-now
141 Long Fence Plan 3 - $1,361,213
154 Long Fence Plan 3 - $1,490,690
156 Long Fence Plan 1 Model - $1,766,000 (started out at $1.86m)
160 Long Fence Plan 2 Model - $1,846,000 (started out at $1.89m)
One re-sale
139 Long Fence Plan 2 - $1,449,990 (this one use to be a move-in ready house at $1,261,000 about 5 months back)
Didn't someone back in May say they were SOLD OUT?
I don't have a problem with your opinion - it is just that, an opinion of housing prices. And everyone is entitled to have their own opinion re: things.
I think some of the time you are right, but you tend to lose credibility when it's the same statement over and over again repeatedly, ad nauseam that prices in Irvine are high. I don't think I have ever seen you post anything regarding prices being on point with any house in Irvine, period. It just seems like your opinion is very skewed toward thinking Irvine is overpriced in general.
At any rate, no big deal, and you are obviously entitled to your opinion, as extreme as I think it might be. My comment to you was less about Capella, and more about how you constantly rant about prices on most homes being too high. There is an obvious theme.
I understand what you meant about the statement re: housing prices crashing, and I stand corrected. You never said that, and for that I apologize.
Well said. I agree with you. Financing is going to be the key here. Banks can never let what happened in the Great Recession to ever happen again. Therefore, the under-writting process is painful. They have every rights to do so.
To see rate rise and not own, well woulda, coulda, shoulda.....
I don't think anyone would have guessed that 
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Anyone can state anything on here base on their beliefs and opinions. However, your opinion or beliefs that the market is overpriced or going to crash without time bound and specifics about why the are prices too high that gives plenty of ammunition to believe that you are currently waiting or timing the market for opportunity. There is nothing wrong with that, I just have to CAUTION you that while you are renting and waiting for local real estate, ie micro-economic IRVINE and macro-economic OC, California housing to drop, you will be in for a long wait. The force of local real estate desirability is too strong. As soon as a property price below comps by a fraction of a percent. It will get swooped up.
Back in 2005 while predatory lending runs rampant, some of homeowner saw this and cash out. Their mentality is the same prices is insanely high. I know of a couple of people that cashed out after 2 year holding on to the property. While they did make over 100K in profit. They did exactly what you did, stay renting. Then time the market. During those period he still has to pay rent a little over 2K for a nice place from 2005 to 2012, they waited. Josh want to be back in the game in late 2011 only to find that credit frozen for most people. In 2013 Josh, attempt to jump back into the market only to see prices where he wanted to buy in OC has gone higher, or outbid by cash buyers. My friend Josh on a single income could not possibly afford current prices for where he wanted to buy. He currently live in Irvine, renting and purchased a few out of state property Arizona, Georgia. All of those are cash flow positive. Well, you buy low and low profit margin for him.
Timing market can be like crap shoot, a roll of a dice, you might hit a crap after so many rolls. You have to buy for good reasons, prices might drop, the reason makes you hold and stay and eventually comes out on top. REAL STORY, NO BULLSHIT.
Back in 2005 while predatory lending runs rampant, some of homeowner saw this and cash out. Their mentality is the same prices is insanely high. I know of a couple of people that cashed out after 2 year holding on to the property. While they did make over 100K in profit. They did exactly what you did, stay renting. Then time the market. During those period he still has to pay rent a little over 2K for a nice place from 2005 to 2012, they waited. Josh want to be back in the game in late 2011 only to find that credit frozen for most people. In 2013 Josh, attempt to jump back into the market only to see prices where he wanted to buy in OC has gone higher, or outbid by cash buyers. My friend Josh on a single income could not possibly afford current prices for where he wanted to buy. He currently live in Irvine, renting and purchased a few out of state property Arizona, Georgia. All of those are cash flow positive. Well, you buy low and low profit margin for him.
Timing market can be like crap shoot, a roll of a dice, you might hit a crap after so many rolls. You have to buy for good reasons, prices might drop, the reason makes you hold and stay and eventually comes out on top. REAL STORY, NO BULLSHIT.
Laguna21
New member
If it's out of state rentals that you own, then your mentality re: the current market here in Irvine makes sense then. You are still trying to get into a house here, but renting in Irvine.
It's just simple human nature that the naysayers and the negative talkers re: the market are ones that are trying to get "in" the housing market. And the ones that are the cheerleaders, and the positive thinkers are the ones that are currently home owners. It's just simple human nature to defend whatever position you have. No harm in that.
I agree with the former post though, if you are trying to get in or hope for a market crash, GL with that plan, as it will never happen. Market corrections and minor price adjustments may, but a full on crash is a pipe dream. If you are buying to hold and stay, then you can't go wrong. Timing real estate markets is an impossible feat, and no one can predict anything.
It's just simple human nature that the naysayers and the negative talkers re: the market are ones that are trying to get "in" the housing market. And the ones that are the cheerleaders, and the positive thinkers are the ones that are currently home owners. It's just simple human nature to defend whatever position you have. No harm in that.
I agree with the former post though, if you are trying to get in or hope for a market crash, GL with that plan, as it will never happen. Market corrections and minor price adjustments may, but a full on crash is a pipe dream. If you are buying to hold and stay, then you can't go wrong. Timing real estate markets is an impossible feat, and no one can predict anything.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Compressed-Village said:
The people across the street from our old Irvine home were like your friend, selling out in 2003. They did make a tidy sum but turned themselves into renters only to see their old home go up ANOTHER 25%.
They were correct, the market came down but didn't bottom out for nearly a decade after they sold out. Their old home sold again for about the same price they sold for. They thought it would come down even more and waited only to see the market go up. Convinced it had further to drop they kept renting.
I thought the market was too expensive many times but stayed put. When another neighbor sold in 2006 for what I considered an absolute ridiculous price, told my hubby we have to get out NOW. For once in my life I was right about it being too expensive. Of course a broken clock is right twice a day. We stayed put because my hubby wanted to see my youngest thru college, then prices dropped and dropped and dropped.
If I would have known they would have dropped that much I would have certainly sold, but no way to know the depth of the drop or if prices would even drop and in the meantime ya gotta live somewhere.
So when the house across the street came on the market, told my hubby we should get that house and he thought it would drop more but I was convinced it was a good price having gotten down to where it sold in 2003. Never did we expect prices to boomerang and we waited for a good fit. If we had only known the extent and relative quickness of the recovery we would have loaded up on real estate and flipped them for a profit or bought them for my kids.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda........ when the train leaves the station, it's too late. In the meantime u gotta live somewhere and u either pay rent to someone else or put it in your own place.
Who knows where/when a top comes or how deep prices may drop. All I know is interest rates rising for most people are a much bigger issue than prices dropping. You can always refinance (assuming u can qualify) for a lower rate but seeing rates rise when u don't own..... well woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Perspective
Well-known member
Meh. When I hear folks make housing generalizations housing prices are too high, housing prices are fair, etc., I just roll me eyes. :
It's far more complex than any cute saying you can regurgitate.
It's far more complex than any cute saying you can regurgitate.This is the best time in history to invest in real estate.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...n-history-to-invest-in-real-estate-2016-08-22
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...n-history-to-invest-in-real-estate-2016-08-22
Laguna21 said:
Have you guys ever played the telephone game? One person whispers something to the next person and so on and so on. By the end of the chain, what the original person said is completely different from what the last person said. The point Im trying to make is that I never said the market is going to crash. All I said is that the house is overpriced. I gave very good reasons why. I realize you guys try to portray me as having an extreme point of view because I dont agree with your opinions, but really? Let me be clear. I never said the market is going to crash. Do I think it will correct in price? Absolutely yes. How much is anyones guess but I do not think this price appreciation is sustainable and in fact as I just mentioned, I think its needs to downward correct. This is not such an extreme view as you guys would like me to have.
Perspective
Well-known member
Sure. Fair enough. But how much value are you adding to a conversation by saying, Houses in this neighborhood are over-priced and will correct. I'm not saying they'll crash. I'm not saying how much they're over-priced, nor when the correction will occur. I just wanted to share this opinion.?
There's nothing really there, other than a passive-aggressive snarky comment directed at folks here who own in Irvine or are trying to buy. That's how it's taken.
Prices do feel very high, and most of that is because 30-year fixed mortgage rates exist at sub-4% rates, and a decent percentage of cash buyers.
There's nothing really there, other than a passive-aggressive snarky comment directed at folks here who own in Irvine or are trying to buy. That's how it's taken.
Prices do feel very high, and most of that is because 30-year fixed mortgage rates exist at sub-4% rates, and a decent percentage of cash buyers.
Laguna21
New member
hello said:
You seem to think that you don't have an extreme point of view, but your posts historically show that you have posted, ad nauseam, the same repeated statements re: the Irvine home prices being too high. This has nothing to do with a telephone game, it's right there in your post history. Almost every single comment that has ever been made as been extremely negative & pessimistic toward the overall housing in Irvine, and the theme is, everything is overpriced according to you.
It's fine to have an opinion on the market, but a lot of it seems extremely biased toward wanting the market to correct itself so you can get in.
Laguna21 said:
I dont deny saying that prices are too high in my opinion, since thats exactly what I said. What I never said (which you constantly accuse me of) is that prices are going to crash. Two really different ideas. So if you were to actually quote me right, then I wouldnt have a problem. However you wont do so because it doesnt really support your argument.
BTW you started this rant with me simply because I answered a question asked by someone regarding whether a particular house was overpriced...
Larkfield12
New member
Moving on from this argument, I would like to point out that there are 5 houses now on Redfin on Long Fence street. A couple appear to be model homes but should be interesting to see what happens here....something seems off at Capella.
Ive been in the models...they are nicely done but $400k above new construction seems high..my opinion..
Ive been in the models...they are nicely done but $400k above new construction seems high..my opinion..
Larkfield12 said:
How dare you post something actually related to Capella! Thought this was the pissing contest forum. Oops back to the topic.
So here's what's available at Capella on Redfin
Four move-in ready homes offered by TM perhttp://www.taylormorrison.com/new-h...rnia/irvine/capella-community/homes-ready-now
141 Long Fence Plan 3 - $1,361,213
154 Long Fence Plan 3 - $1,490,690
156 Long Fence Plan 1 Model - $1,766,000 (started out at $1.86m)
160 Long Fence Plan 2 Model - $1,846,000 (started out at $1.89m)
One re-sale
139 Long Fence Plan 2 - $1,449,990 (this one use to be a move-in ready house at $1,261,000 about 5 months back)
Didn't someone back in May say they were SOLD OUT?
Laguna21
New member
hello said:
I don't have a problem with your opinion - it is just that, an opinion of housing prices. And everyone is entitled to have their own opinion re: things.
I think some of the time you are right, but you tend to lose credibility when it's the same statement over and over again repeatedly, ad nauseam that prices in Irvine are high. I don't think I have ever seen you post anything regarding prices being on point with any house in Irvine, period. It just seems like your opinion is very skewed toward thinking Irvine is overpriced in general.
At any rate, no big deal, and you are obviously entitled to your opinion, as extreme as I think it might be. My comment to you was less about Capella, and more about how you constantly rant about prices on most homes being too high. There is an obvious theme.
I understand what you meant about the statement re: housing prices crashing, and I stand corrected. You never said that, and for that I apologize.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Ready2Downsize said:
Well said. I agree with you. Financing is going to be the key here. Banks can never let what happened in the Great Recession to ever happen again. Therefore, the under-writting process is painful. They have every rights to do so.
To see rate rise and not own, well woulda, coulda, shoulda.....
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Things never happen exactly the same but we've had enough problems with interest rates and u would think nothing else of large magnitude could happen.
Most on here probably don't remember (or maybe even know) of the Savings and Loan crisis 35 years ago which happened when the fed raised rates to tame inflation and then there was the OC BK but a decade after that. Took another decade to get to the recent housing crisis.
Who knows what will happen but I'm guessing nothing is probably not it.
Most on here probably don't remember (or maybe even know) of the Savings and Loan crisis 35 years ago which happened when the fed raised rates to tame inflation and then there was the OC BK but a decade after that. Took another decade to get to the recent housing crisis.
Who knows what will happen but I'm guessing nothing is probably not it.
Plan 1 Capella model home dropped $100k to $1.65m with all furniture and landscaping. Wonder why they are having issues sellin it? Plan 3 model home sold at $1.81m
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/156-Long-Fence-92602/home/108527280
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/156-Long-Fence-92602/home/108527280