Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Here's how we can determine who won the bet....

Take the average price/sf of all standard sale detached SFR homes in Nov & Dec 2013 versus Nov & Dec 2014 in Northpark, West Irvine, Northwood Pointe, Woodbury, Woodbridge, and Westpark I and II (exclude the old Westpark homes off the 405).  Brand new homes will be excluded.  Then we will take the weighted average (based upon the number of closings) and determine the final price/sf for all of the villages listed above to see who won the bet. 
 
OpenSky said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Here's how we can determine who won the bet....

Take the average price/sf of all standard sale detached SFR homes in Nov & Dec 2013 versus Nov & Dec 2014 in Northpark, West Irvine, Northwood Pointe, Woodbury, Woodbridge, and Westpark I and II (exclude the old Westpark homes off the 405).  Brand new homes will be excluded.  Then we will take the weighted average (based upon the number of closings) and determine the final price/sf for all of the villages listed above to see who won the bet.

The sales mix is moving to new. Many of the new(er) products are classified as "condo," even that which is detached.

So your criteria ignores a very significant portion of sales in Irvine (both new and condo-classified), which is the reality for buyers today.

Include everything (new, resale, SFR, condo). I'll even double the bet to $1,000.
How do you propose I include new when most are not on MLS?  I'm fine with doing attached and detached condos, but they have to be tracked separately as they trade differently than detached SFRs.  If I track them all together then the mix of what type of home is selling more will effect the price/sf. 
 
OpenSky said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OpenSky said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Here's how we can determine who won the bet....

Take the average price/sf of all standard sale detached SFR homes in Nov & Dec 2013 versus Nov & Dec 2014 in Northpark, West Irvine, Northwood Pointe, Woodbury, Woodbridge, and Westpark I and II (exclude the old Westpark homes off the 405).  Brand new homes will be excluded.  Then we will take the weighted average (based upon the number of closings) and determine the final price/sf for all of the villages listed above to see who won the bet.

The sales mix is moving to new. Many of the new(er) products are classified as "condo," even that which is detached.

So your criteria ignores a very significant portion of sales in Irvine (both new and condo-classified), which is the reality for buyers today.

Include everything (new, resale, SFR, condo). I'll even double the bet to $1,000.
How do you propose I include new when most are not on MLS?  I'm fine with doing attached and detached condos, but they have to be tracked separately as they trade differently than detached SFRs.  If I track them all together then the mix of what type of home is selling more will effect the price/sf.

DataQuick has the data cut this way (new, used, condo/SFR) by zip.

See:http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/OC-Register-Charts/ZIPOCR.aspx

and:http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Annual-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT13.aspx#OR

There's a $250 charge for a custom report. I don't mind splitting or paying for it.
I'm not going to pay for a custom report when I can pull a lot of data from MLS (I already pay for that anyway).  I'll sort it like I mentioned above....for those villages by each of those 3 types of homes.  I'll have the data for Nov & Dec 2013 by the end of the month and I'll post it up.  New home data is very difficult because you don't know if the builder included options in one phase in their pricing and then didn't in another phase.  There's plenty of re-sale data that will show us how prices have moved. 
 
We visited 19 Riverside last night.  As we enter there is a low wall for formal dining room.  Separate formal living room.  Kitchen/Nook/Fam combo.  Tiny office.  Full bath.  The downstairs floor plan is not really good/open with all these separations.  There is a plastic covered hole above the stove hood where they had treatment for termite.  Upstairs is pretty good with huge master, 1 bed w/ en suite bath, 2 bed with jack & jill bath.  The whole house feels a bit dated and worn down although the owners recently updated some flooring and stairs with hardwood.  The backyard though is HUGE. 

There were about 10 groups of people viewing during our 10 minutes visit there.  When we left the security was ticketing the parked cars there.  We suspected that the neighbor had called them. 
 
OpenSky said:
ANOTHER McRIB LOT!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Willowridge-92602/home/5813002

I love it!

Now there are four to choose from, all under 2300sf, all over $1M!

Nevermind there are larger homes with larger lots in NP that aren't up against the toll road/Portola on sale for the same money -- that are simply sitting.

As an aside... anyone else notice the paint on the front doors / garage doors of these StanPac builds are fading like it was 1972?

OpenSky,

Looks like you are tracking NP/NPSq pretty closely. The Mendocino and Santa Venetia tracts in NP have seen a significant rise in price in the last 18 months (mirrors the rest of Irvine). These homes used to be in the 800K range not too long ago. Hopefully as these listings age, the owners will be more willing to deal. I've also seen several homes in these tracts with ongoing renovation/expansion construction. I suspect you will see more inventory in coming online as Spring approaches.
 
I really liked the Mendocino C, they were listing for less than $800k in 2012 and one just close near $1m at the end of 2013... crazy.
 
OpenSky said:
DataQuick has the data cut this way (new, used, condo/SFR) by zip.

See:http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/OC-Register-Charts/ZIPOCR.aspx

and:http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Annual-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT13.aspx#OR

There's a $250 charge for a custom report. I don't mind splitting or paying for it.

Zillow is showing the same thing
http://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Irvine is ready to go past 2006 housing prices.  If you scroll down it also shows a low foreclosure rate and $400 average price per sqft.  Too many CASH buyers are out there buying up homes. 
 
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