Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Chairman said:
mcstreet said:
That 50 Clifford Home had some hardcore upgrades to it. The only other homes comparable to 50 Clifford in LR are probably the million dollar view homes on the Hill tracts. The ones further away from the water/cell tower that is.

FCB's will be all over those view homes once they hit the market.
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How much are the homes that sit right in front of that water tower?
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When the homes originally sold from the builder, they were in the $1.5-1.6 million range for the base home, without upgrades. None have gone on the market since they were originally sold.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
lnc said:
OpenSky said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OpenSky said:
There is very little keeping pricing at today's peak levels other than weak precedent.

The fundamentals (affordability, rental parity) don't support it and are, in fact, breaking down very quickly with credit standards and rates.

Investor opportunities have largely dried up. They're on to other asset classes.

Add to that a tidal wave of builder supply that is only growing -- hell, new construction has already dented resales and there is so much more coming on line. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a large number of cancellations with new home sales. Resale listings that actually open escrow flip back to pending -- I'm guessing about 40-50% for the zips I'm tracking.

So 10% in 2014... yeah, I think that's modest.
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Were prices back in early 2012 affordable and at rental parity?  They weren't  affordable is a relative thing.  If you think prices in Irvine are high, go up to the Bay Area....then you'll think the homes down here are a bargain.  Fundamentals are not breaking down quickly, the market has been flat for the past 3-4 months.  Credit standards have been tough for a while and the changes that are coming will only effect the marginal Irvine buyers.  The market isn't on fire like it was last year, it's a neutral to slight seller's market. 

As for new homes, the majority of the developments have sold out their current phase releases (I was at Pavilion Park the past few weekends).  Builders will be careful on how they release future phases.  I'll bet you that prices don't decline 10% in 2014.  If I win, you will make a monetary contribution to the charity of my choice and if you win I'll make a monetary contribution to the charity of your choice.
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I like this challenge.

Given you're saying "flat" and I'm saying "-10%", I propose a graduated system, such that a -5% correction would mean we both contribute 50% to respective charities.

I'd put up $500, glad to put it in escrow (designate a trusted member as our "escrow"?)

Now we come up with a measurement. Median sales price for all Irvine as of December? Or November (so we can write off for 2014)?
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I would not bet against USCTrojenCPA if I were you.  Not only  I agree with him on this issue, he's darn good gambler.
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Haha  I did get lucky by buying my house near the recent bottom.  I like to put good karma out out there so I guess that good karma has come back around at times.
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OK:

I propose median price per square foot for all closed residential property sales in Irvine (new + resale, SFR + condo).  I also propose we start another thread and invite other folks on the forum to "gamble" alongside us. We compare December 2013 to December 2014 one year from now.

Since TI is about housing (and we're all about First World Problems), my charity of choice will be the Orange County Rescue Mission. Perhaps we can consider consolidating charities for effectiveness?

Once we have terms set, let's start another thread so it's not buried deep in this one.
 
OpenSky said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
lnc said:
OpenSky said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OpenSky said:
There is very little keeping pricing at today's peak levels other than weak precedent.

The fundamentals (affordability, rental parity) don't support it and are, in fact, breaking down very quickly with credit standards and rates.

Investor opportunities have largely dried up. They're on to other asset classes.

Add to that a tidal wave of builder supply that is only growing -- hell, new construction has already dented resales and there is so much more coming on line. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a large number of cancellations with new home sales. Resale listings that actually open escrow flip back to pending -- I'm guessing about 40-50% for the zips I'm tracking.

So 10% in 2014... yeah, I think that's modest.
Click to expand...
Were prices back in early 2012 affordable and at rental parity?  They weren't  affordable is a relative thing.  If you think prices in Irvine are high, go up to the Bay Area....then you'll think the homes down here are a bargain.  Fundamentals are not breaking down quickly, the market has been flat for the past 3-4 months.  Credit standards have been tough for a while and the changes that are coming will only effect the marginal Irvine buyers.  The market isn't on fire like it was last year, it's a neutral to slight seller's market. 

As for new homes, the majority of the developments have sold out their current phase releases (I was at Pavilion Park the past few weekends).  Builders will be careful on how they release future phases.  I'll bet you that prices don't decline 10% in 2014.  If I win, you will make a monetary contribution to the charity of my choice and if you win I'll make a monetary contribution to the charity of your choice.
Click to expand...

I like this challenge.

Given you're saying "flat" and I'm saying "-10%", I propose a graduated system, such that a -5% correction would mean we both contribute 50% to respective charities.

I'd put up $500, glad to put it in escrow (designate a trusted member as our "escrow"?)

Now we come up with a measurement. Median sales price for all Irvine as of December? Or November (so we can write off for 2014)?
Click to expand...

I would not bet against USCTrojenCPA if I were you.  Not only  I agree with him on this issue, he's darn good gambler.
Click to expand...
Haha  I did get lucky by buying my house near the recent bottom.  I like to put good karma out out there so I guess that good karma has come back around at times.
Click to expand...

OK:

I propose median price per square foot for all closed residential property sales in Irvine (new + resale, SFR + condo).  I also propose we start another thread and invite other folks on the forum to "gamble" alongside us. We compare December 2013 to December 2014 one year from now.

Since TI is about housing (and we're all about First World Problems), my charity of choice will be the Orange County Rescue Mission. Perhaps we can consider consolidating charities for effectiveness?

Once we have terms set, let's start another thread so it's not buried deep in this one.
Click to expand...
My charity is St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.  I'll try to come up with a methodology for the pricing comparison. 
 
The time now is different from several years ago when FCBs were only looking at the only active community in th entire USA when other builders were still in hibernation.  Masterplanned communities are rapidly coming in to the market that will continue to dilute the foreign investors in one concentrated region. Builders and developers are aware of the Chinese favorite locations pride with good schools and foods. La Habra, Rowland Heights, Chino Hills, Diamond Bar will soon be releasing large neighborhoods. Rancho Cucamonga another Chinese middle class destination will be releasing 1,000 homes. Alhambra may eliminate an underperforming golf course for 2,000 new homes. In the north 6,000 homes will be built near Fremont and Milpitus. Toll Brothers' acquisition of Shapell is another strategic move to target the Chinese market here in southern and Northern California with over ten thousand homes yet to be delivered to the Chinese market.
 
Shit man with all the Chinese on their way I need to scoop up properties in Santa Ana, the white folks are going to move there to get away from the chinese
 
The whites someday could be the gardeners for the Chinese so no need to scoop up properties in Santa Ana when you can shag the FCBs daughters then to receive free money to buy more properties. You know that your giant tool gets the job done.
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
The whites someday could be the gardeners for the Chinese so no need to scoop up properties in Santa Ana when you can shag the FCBs daughters then to receive free money to buy more properties. You know that your giant tool gets the job done.
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I hope you pick the right one - if not you will be paying child support.  ;)
 
I know.. I just hope he doesn't.. because I wanted to buy that specific phase.. since those were the only ones that had a normal street that you can park on.
 
Qwerty and all his homeboys are exempt from child supports. In fact government offers them luxury Irvine housing near the Great Park honoring their dead beat dad status.

eyephone said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
The whites someday could be the gardeners for the Chinese so no need to scoop up properties in Santa Ana when you can shag the FCBs daughters then to receive free money to buy more properties. You know that your giant tool gets the job done.
Click to expand...
I hope you pick the right one - if not you will be paying child support.  ;)
Click to expand...
 
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