Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

[irvinehomeowner]

3) feng shui concerns (if facing directly opposite entry?)

The 4 Factor!

 

[OpenSky]

 

[woodburyowner]

Agree - these Portisol floor plans suck (IMHO).  There's a bunch of the same floor plan homes sitting on the market - not moving.  But it is in the "nicer" part of Woodbury (away from all the condos/motorcourt product).

My buddy lives on this street.  It's definitely a very quiet street, away from most of the condo/townhome action that the middle of Woodbury sees.  Also, there is plenty of parking and a small community pool nearby so you don't have to use the main one.  The backyard is *huge* for newer Irvine standards.  You really can't compare these properties with the detached condos in CV.

I personally like the layouts of these CalPac properties.  Simple and efficient.  There is really no wasted space.

 

[OpenSky]

8)

 

[OpenSky]

 

[bones]

[.

 

[OpenSky]

8)

 

[jmoney74]

A correction on resale pricing is needed... But these guys have skin in the game already and Asians arent known to just roll over and take a loss so quickly... They usually don't consider opportunity cost by not investing elsewhere.

 

[notTHEoc]

A

 

[usctrojancpa]

Then let's compare with the three STMs in WB asking 900k each.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/113-Lamplighter-92620/home/7201465http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/172-Wild-Lilac-92620/home/7210960http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/91-Lamplighter-92620/home/12257234

Begs the question... if Water Spout is sitting for 120+ days at 900k, what are these STM's worth, with their yardless/drivewayless/extra HOAness? 825k? Less?

This Plan 1 Portisol went pending @ $865k after ~100 days on the market and one price decrease.  Not sure what it will close at.  It's the Plan 1 so a true 3 bedroom without the ability to become a 4 bedroom.

Edit: forgot link
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/72-Loganberry-92620/home/5958941

Nice backyard. Prolly closes around 850k, but who knows... he bought at 788k; I haven't checked loan status yet.

I think the market is due for a 10% correction -- essentially give back half of 2013's gains -- within the next 6 months. Renting is cheaper and becoming more so with rates escalating.

So we're gearing up in the next ~3 weeks to get aggressive on offers, possibly in that 10% off WTF asking range. Hurts me to do it but wifey has been very patient.

So before we do new, we're going to come up with a strategy for target resale properties - then get aggressive. If it doesn't work, we'll pick up a new place.

It seems sellers like these that are so close to dipping in their pockets after upgrading and paying commissions are the ones that are eager to jump ship.

Second might be investors who have aging listings, who might be happy with a modest return in exchange for putting their capital to work elsewhere.

Last is absentee FCB sellers, who strike me as being extremely patient and would rather wait for the next hot sell cycle than sell 5-10% below asking price.

"Regular" equity sellers are the crap shoot as it becomes emotional and there are unknown circumstances...?

You may think that the market is due for a 10% correction, but the question is why and what will cause such a decline?  Higher rates?  More inventory?  Downturn in the economy?  More than one of those?  I think that prices will be flatish this year as the market digests the big run up in prices from 2013.

 

[OpenSky]

8)

 

[usctrojancpa]

There is very little keeping pricing at today's peak levels other than weak precedent.

The fundamentals (affordability, rental parity) don't support it and are, in fact, breaking down very quickly with credit standards and rates.

Investor opportunities have largely dried up. They're on to other asset classes.

Add to that a tidal wave of builder supply that is only growing -- hell, new construction has already dented resales and there is so much more coming on line. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a large number of cancellations with new home sales. Resale listings that actually open escrow flip back to pending -- I'm guessing about 40-50% for the zips I'm tracking.

So 10% in 2014... yeah, I think that's modest.

Were prices back in early 2012 affordable and at rental parity?  They weren't  affordable is a relative thing.  If you think prices in Irvine are high, go up to the Bay Area....then you'll think the homes down here are a bargain.  Fundamentals are not breaking down quickly, the market has been flat for the past 3-4 months.  Credit standards have been tough for a while and the changes that are coming will only effect the marginal Irvine buyers.  The market isn't on fire like it was last year, it's a neutral to slight seller's market. 

As for new homes, the majority of the developments have sold out their current phase releases (I was at Pavilion Park the past few weekends).  Builders will be careful on how they release future phases.  I'll bet you that prices don't decline 10% in 2014.  If I win, you will make a monetary contribution to the charity of my choice and if you win I'll make a monetary contribution to the charity of your choice. 

 

[eyephone]

There is very little keeping pricing at today's peak levels other than weak precedent.

The fundamentals (affordability, rental parity) don't support it and are, in fact, breaking down very quickly with credit standards and rates.

Investor opportunities have largely dried up. They're on to other asset classes.

Add to that a tidal wave of builder supply that is only growing -- hell, new construction has already dented resales and there is so much more coming on line. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a large number of cancellations with new home sales. Resale listings that actually open escrow flip back to pending -- I'm guessing about 40-50% for the zips I'm tracking.

So 10% in 2014... yeah, I think that's modest.

Were prices back in early 2012 affordable and at rental parity?  They weren't  affordable is a relative thing.  If you think prices in Irvine are high, go up to the Bay Area....then you'll think the homes down here are a bargain.  Fundamentals are not breaking down quickly, the market has been flat for the past 3-4 months.  Credit standards have been tough for a while and the changes that are coming will only effect the marginal Irvine buyers.  The market isn't on fire like it was last year, it's a neutral to slight seller's market. 

As for new homes, the majority of the developments have sold out their current phase releases (I was at Pavilion Park the past few weekends).  Builders will be careful on how they release future phases.  I'll bet you that prices don't decline 10% in 2014.  If I win, you will make a monetary contribution to the charity of my choice and if you win I'll make a monetary contribution to the charity of your choice.

Blame it on the Fed/uncle Ben. (Ben Bernanke)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Asking 10% off of WTF listing prices doesn't really equal 10% correction.

I'm with OpenSky... offer what you think the property is worth based on comps, even if it's more than 10% off. Especially now while sales may be slow (although inventory is still low).

 

[OpenSky]

 

[lnc]

There is very little keeping pricing at today's peak levels other than weak precedent.

The fundamentals (affordability, rental parity) don't support it and are, in fact, breaking down very quickly with credit standards and rates.

Investor opportunities have largely dried up. They're on to other asset classes.

Add to that a tidal wave of builder supply that is only growing -- hell, new construction has already dented resales and there is so much more coming on line. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a large number of cancellations with new home sales. Resale listings that actually open escrow flip back to pending -- I'm guessing about 40-50% for the zips I'm tracking.

So 10% in 2014... yeah, I think that's modest.

Were prices back in early 2012 affordable and at rental parity?  They weren't  affordable is a relative thing.  If you think prices in Irvine are high, go up to the Bay Area....then you'll think the homes down here are a bargain.  Fundamentals are not breaking down quickly, the market has been flat for the past 3-4 months.  Credit standards have been tough for a while and the changes that are coming will only effect the marginal Irvine buyers.  The market isn't on fire like it was last year, it's a neutral to slight seller's market. 

As for new homes, the majority of the developments have sold out their current phase releases (I was at Pavilion Park the past few weekends).  Builders will be careful on how they release future phases.  I'll bet you that prices don't decline 10% in 2014.  If I win, you will make a monetary contribution to the charity of my choice and if you win I'll make a monetary contribution to the charity of your choice.

I like this challenge.

Given you're saying "flat" and I'm saying "-10%", I propose a graduated system, such that a -5% correction would mean we both contribute 50% to respective charities.

I'd put up $500, glad to put it in escrow (designate a trusted member as our "escrow"?)

Now we come up with a measurement. Median sales price for all Irvine as of December? Or November (so we can write off for 2014)?

I would not bet against USCTrojenCPA if I were you.  Not only  I agree with him on this issue, he's darn good gambler.

 

[OpenSky]

 

[bones]

[q.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I'm in for the bet.  Since I'm a regular on here and I've never gone back on any promise to my clients, there's no risk of me flaking on the bet.  Let's mutually agreed upon a measure that we can use to calculate the prices from today versus prices next year.  The good thing is that this is a win-win bet for a charity. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

There is very little keeping pricing at today's peak levels other than weak precedent.

The fundamentals (affordability, rental parity) don't support it and are, in fact, breaking down very quickly with credit standards and rates.

Investor opportunities have largely dried up. They're on to other asset classes.

Add to that a tidal wave of builder supply that is only growing -- hell, new construction has already dented resales and there is so much more coming on line. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a large number of cancellations with new home sales. Resale listings that actually open escrow flip back to pending -- I'm guessing about 40-50% for the zips I'm tracking.

So 10% in 2014... yeah, I think that's modest.

Were prices back in early 2012 affordable and at rental parity?  They weren't  affordable is a relative thing.  If you think prices in Irvine are high, go up to the Bay Area....then you'll think the homes down here are a bargain.  Fundamentals are not breaking down quickly, the market has been flat for the past 3-4 months.  Credit standards have been tough for a while and the changes that are coming will only effect the marginal Irvine buyers.  The market isn't on fire like it was last year, it's a neutral to slight seller's market. 

As for new homes, the majority of the developments have sold out their current phase releases (I was at Pavilion Park the past few weekends).  Builders will be careful on how they release future phases.  I'll bet you that prices don't decline 10% in 2014.  If I win, you will make a monetary contribution to the charity of my choice and if you win I'll make a monetary contribution to the charity of your choice.

I like this challenge.

Given you're saying "flat" and I'm saying "-10%", I propose a graduated system, such that a -5% correction would mean we both contribute 50% to respective charities.

I'd put up $500, glad to put it in escrow (designate a trusted member as our "escrow"?)

Now we come up with a measurement. Median sales price for all Irvine as of December? Or November (so we can write off for 2014)?

I would not bet against USCTrojenCPA if I were you.  Not only  I agree with him on this issue, he's darn good gambler.

Haha  I did get lucky by buying my house near the recent bottom.  I like to put good karma out out there so I guess that good karma has come back around at times.