Housing Analysis

[sgip]

Birthright Citizenship issues are no real driver of prices or sales relative to others.

Canada tried taxing foreign purchases at a higher rate than native buyers, but not at a rate high enough to change behavior. The weak tax increase made a dent in sales, but not one of significance. Stronger money laundering requirements is the only real way to push sales out of the reach of foreign buyers, but the realtor lobby won't allow any real reforms to see the light of day.

We may be talking about Irvine/OC properties here, but applying strict money laundering rules to realtors would crush the Miami market (European / Latin American cash) as well as NYC (Them Rooskies).



My .02c

 

[fortune11]

Birthright Citizenship issues are no real driver of prices or sales relative to others.

Canada tried taxing foreign purchases at a higher rate than native buyers, but not at a rate high enough to change behavior. The weak tax increase made a dent in sales, but not one of significance. Stronger money laundering requirements is the only real way to push sales out of the reach of foreign buyers, but the realtor lobby won't allow any real reforms to see the light of day.

We may be talking about Irvine/OC properties here, but applying strict money laundering rules to realtors would crush the Miami market (European / Latin American cash) as well as NYC (Them Rooskies).



My .02c

Good points and agree w most of them

But not sure about ?power ? of realtor lobby

They were unable to stop the salt deduction cap

 

[Mety]

How would ending citizen birth right affect housing? We know there are anchors babies and clinics all around OC and Irvine. Trump executive order will vow to end this almost immediately. What do you think to all the baby mama in Irvine will do, force induce labor before the quick enactment of executive actions?

The % of birthing houses is so low that it won't have any effect on housing prices. 

I wonder if this executive order will create a market for sperm from US Citizens.

Hopefully there's a market. Each pop can pay a month of mortgage and MR!

Belly aka YF is back?  Jk

I believe I did make an accusation of Cares being YF at one time.
Now I don't believe they are the same person. Maybe friends?

 

[Cares]

How would ending citizen birth right affect housing? We know there are anchors babies and clinics all around OC and Irvine. Trump executive order will vow to end this almost immediately. What do you think to all the baby mama in Irvine will do, force induce labor before the quick enactment of executive actions?

The % of birthing houses is so low that it won't have any effect on housing prices. 

I wonder if this executive order will create a market for sperm from US Citizens.

Hopefully there's a market. Each pop can pay a month of mortgage and MR!

Belly aka YF is back?  Jk

I believe I did make an accusation of Cares being YF at one time.
Now I don't believe they are the same person. Maybe friends?

I did notice BTB deleted all his posts. What happened? There was a gap of time that I did not visit the forums after I decided to not buy in Irvine anymore.

 

[Mety]

How would ending citizen birth right affect housing? We know there are anchors babies and clinics all around OC and Irvine. Trump executive order will vow to end this almost immediately. What do you think to all the baby mama in Irvine will do, force induce labor before the quick enactment of executive actions?

The % of birthing houses is so low that it won't have any effect on housing prices. 

I wonder if this executive order will create a market for sperm from US Citizens.

Hopefully there's a market. Each pop can pay a month of mortgage and MR!

Belly aka YF is back?  Jk

I believe I did make an accusation of Cares being YF at one time.
Now I don't believe they are the same person. Maybe friends?

I did notice BTB deleted all his posts. What happened? There was a gap of time that I did not visit the forums after I decided to not buy in Irvine anymore.

BTB is on a vacation. That's the way he lets us know by deleting his posts.

Where did you end up buying? Or are you waiting for now? I know you said you were looking at GP homes before.

 

[Cares]

How would ending citizen birth right affect housing? We know there are anchors babies and clinics all around OC and Irvine. Trump executive order will vow to end this almost immediately. What do you think to all the baby mama in Irvine will do, force induce labor before the quick enactment of executive actions?

The % of birthing houses is so low that it won't have any effect on housing prices. 

I wonder if this executive order will create a market for sperm from US Citizens.

Hopefully there's a market. Each pop can pay a month of mortgage and MR!

Belly aka YF is back?  Jk

I believe I did make an accusation of Cares being YF at one time.
Now I don't believe they are the same person. Maybe friends?

I did notice BTB deleted all his posts. What happened? There was a gap of time that I did not visit the forums after I decided to not buy in Irvine anymore.

BTB is on a vacation. That's the way he lets us know by deleting his posts.

Where did you end up buying? Or are you waiting for now? I know you said you were looking at GP homes before.

Cypress Village. GP way too expensive for my liking. Plus I'll be commuting far so I rather be closer to the freeway.

 

[Mety]

How would ending citizen birth right affect housing? We know there are anchors babies and clinics all around OC and Irvine. Trump executive order will vow to end this almost immediately. What do you think to all the baby mama in Irvine will do, force induce labor before the quick enactment of executive actions?

The % of birthing houses is so low that it won't have any effect on housing prices. 

I wonder if this executive order will create a market for sperm from US Citizens.

Hopefully there's a market. Each pop can pay a month of mortgage and MR!

Belly aka YF is back?  Jk

I believe I did make an accusation of Cares being YF at one time.
Now I don't believe they are the same person. Maybe friends?

I did notice BTB deleted all his posts. What happened? There was a gap of time that I did not visit the forums after I decided to not buy in Irvine anymore.

BTB is on a vacation. That's the way he lets us know by deleting his posts.

Where did you end up buying? Or are you waiting for now? I know you said you were looking at GP homes before.

Cypress Village. GP way too expensive for my liking. Plus I'll be commuting far so I rather be closer to the freeway.

Good choice!

 

[eyephone]

How would ending citizen birth right affect housing? We know there are anchors babies and clinics all around OC and Irvine. Trump executive order will vow to end this almost immediately. What do you think to all the baby mama in Irvine will do, force induce labor before the quick enactment of executive actions?

The % of birthing houses is so low that it won't have any effect on housing prices. 

I wonder if this executive order will create a market for sperm from US Citizens.

Hopefully there's a market. Each pop can pay a month of mortgage and MR!

Belly aka YF is back?  Jk

I believe I did make an accusation of Cares being YF at one time.
Now I don't believe they are the same person. Maybe friends?

I did notice BTB deleted all his posts. What happened? There was a gap of time that I did not visit the forums after I decided to not buy in Irvine anymore.

BTB is on a vacation. That's the way he lets us know by deleting his posts.

Where did you end up buying? Or are you waiting for now? I know you said you were looking at GP homes before.

Cypress Village. GP way too expensive for my liking. Plus I'll be commuting far so I rather be closer to the freeway.

Hmm. Belly wouldn?t choose GP. (similarity)
But wouldn?t recommend to live near freeways due to ?environmental/health? reasons. (Conclusion: cares is not Belly)

 

[meccos12]

If the "slowdown" is only 5%, is it really worth waiting? eyephone? meccos? kenkoko?

After seeing the data coming in for the past few months, if I was a buyer, I would absolutely wait right now.  The weakness in housing data is too much to ignore.  Inventory is rising rapidly, demand is falling, expected time on the market is increasing significantly.  If you threw in a 5% price reduction on top of that, there is no question one should wait.  On top of the fact that its much cheaper to rent a house versus buy the same house, there is no reason to rush into a purchase right now. 

So the question really isnt why should one wait, but rather what is the benefit of buying right now?  Unless you have some unusual circumstance where you must buy right now or you found the perfect house (if there is such a thing) at a steal of a price, then benefits of waiting far outweigh the risk. 

Oh btw in more housing news today:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/sou...its-worst-housing-slump-in-over-a-decade.html

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So the question really isnt why should one wait, but rather what is the benefit of buying right now?  Unless you have some unusual circumstance where you must buy right now or you found the perfect house (if there is such a thing) at a steal of a price, then benefits of waiting far outweigh the risk. 

I think I've explained this a few times now.

Those with "unusual circumstances" is who I'm talking to.

So are you saying that everyone who is about to open escrow, is in escrow or is looking to buy in the next few months should stop and wait?

 

[meccos12]

I think I've explained this a few times now.

Those with "unusual circumstances" is who I'm talking to.

So are you saying that everyone who is about to open escrow, is in escrow or is looking to buy in the next few months should stop and wait?

I agree, people with unusual circumstances  (ie. if you HAVE to buy RIGHT now or you found that PERFECT house for dirt cheap) should proceed to buy.  For the other 99% people without unusual circumstances, there is no good reason to make a purchase right now. 

Since you keep urging people to buy right now, do you see prices skyrocketing any time soon?  Do you see inventory dropping any time soon?  Do you see demand surging any time soon?  Do you see rents surging any time soon?  The fact is I see the opposites of all this right now.  Hence there is absolutely no rush to buy right now... unless for "unusual circumstances".  I would love to hear what the benefits of buying right now are.

 

[eyephone]

Also throw in if Prop 10 passes...

 

[sgip]

If I was to invest in Real Estate now it would be focused on out of area (Georgia, Texas, etc) rental properties and keeping spare funds on hand once Amazon's HQ2 location is announced. The RE price gains around South LA after the NFL stadium was announced makes me think the Amazon deal will have the same benefits.

My .02c

SGIP

 

[paperboyNC]

So the question really isnt why should one wait, but rather what is the benefit of buying right now?  Unless you have some unusual circumstance where you must buy right now or you found the perfect house (if there is such a thing) at a steal of a price, then benefits of waiting far outweigh the risk. 

Anecdotally, I have run into several move-up buyers lately. Here's some of their reasons for buying now:
- They want to buy brand new into a certain community before it is built out. They were able to get the lot them wanted.
- They wanted to be settled with walking distance to an elementary school before their kid starts school
- Financial situation improved and they decided to move to a larger home and keep the old home as a rental
- etc, etc

Most people buy homes for family reasons, not to time the market.

For instance, I almost sold my home and moved into a rental in May to time the market, but I realized that living in a rental could make life difficult for my girls - especially if we had to move every year and found it difficult to find a home in the same school district (elementary school districts can be very small).

 

[eyephone]

After that marketing campaign by Panda and his response to my questions. I?ll pass.

If I was to invest in Real Estate now it would be focused on out of area (Georgia, Texas, etc) rental properties and keeping spare funds on hand once Amazon's HQ2 location is announced. The RE price gains around South LA after the NFL stadium was announced makes me think the Amazon deal will have the same benefits.

My .02c

SGIP

 

[sgip]

Don't know the full extent of your story, but late last year I worked with a Relo to SoCal client moving from that same area of Georgia Panda promotes. Seems like the area is the "real deal" as this same Relo client, once in SoCal, reached out to me to help finance a 2nd rental purchase in Georgia, 100 yards from his prior residence which had been converted to a rental.

That's not to say buying in that area is the end all, be all. My own focus would be on college town rental markets. I like those markets.

My .02c

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think I've explained this a few times now.

Those with "unusual circumstances" is who I'm talking to.

So are you saying that everyone who is about to open escrow, is in escrow or is looking to buy in the next few months should stop and wait?

I agree, people with unusual circumstances  (ie. if you HAVE to buy RIGHT now or you found that PERFECT house for dirt cheap) should proceed to buy.  For the other 99% people without unusual circumstances, there is no good reason to make a purchase right now. 

The reason I put "unusual circumstances" in quotes was because I don't think it's that "unusual". Or else you would have no one buying... certainly not "99%" like you feel.

As you can see paperboy's post, there are very "usual" reasons that people may want to buy now.

Since you keep urging people to buy right now, do you see prices skyrocketing any time soon?  Do you see inventory dropping any time soon?  Do you see demand surging any time soon?  Do you see rents surging any time soon?  The fact is I see the opposites of all this right now.  Hence there is absolutely no rush to buy right now... unless for "unusual circumstances".  I would love to hear what the benefits of buying right now are.

First, I'm not "urging people". I am saying that to certain people, waiting for a 5% drop may not be worth it and they should assess their situation to determine that. Since no one can promise there will be a significant drop (20% is what we've come to agree upon) and that it's all speculative, to tell people to wait may result in them not getting the home they want, for the price they want, in the area they want, for the financing they want.

You're hedging the present against an unknown future and yes, that is a risk we all take every day but unless someone here is from the future and knows exactly what is going to happen, you really need to just use what you know today and decide for yourself if it's worth it.

Will you be okay if prices drop 5% in the next 2 years?
Will you be okay if the area you are currently looking at will not be available in the next X years?
Can you stay in this home for 5-10 years to weather any price drops more than 5%?

The main benefits to not waiting is you get to live in your own home now, you no longer have to shop, you don't have to deal with a landlord (we had a bad one at one point in time), you don't have to move your kids to different areas/schools/friends, you can get on with your life and stop worrying about timing the market right.

Theoretically, everyone wants to save money on their biggest investment (the eyephone reason), but realistically, people want/need to buy a home now and don't want to wait.

Describe your home buying experience. Did you time it? Did you get what you wanted where you wanted?

 

[meccos12]

Anecdotally, I have run into several move-up buyers lately. Here's some of their reasons for buying now:
- They want to buy brand new into a certain community before it is built out. They were able to get the lot them wanted.
- They wanted to be settled with walking distance to an elementary school before their kid starts school
- Financial situation improved and they decided to move to a larger home and keep the old home as a rental
- etc, etc

Most people buy homes for family reasons, not to time the market.

Everyone has a reason to buy a home for whatever reason they want.  Perhaps some people think having a larger home or walking their kids to school is of great importance.  Others might feel that having the opportunity to pick from a larger inventory, having less competition on a house or paying less is more important to them.  Regardless, our discussion here is on whether one would advise people to wait to purchase or not based on this current housing climate.  These anecdotal reasons given to purchase a home now are purely based on "family reasons", which are constants that dont change in any housing cycle.  Thus if these are the sole reasons to buy a house, there is no room for discussion and this discussion is a moot point.  If you want to consider the recent changes in the health of housing, then that's another story. 

 

[meccos12]

First, I'm not "urging people". I am saying that to certain people, waiting for a 5% drop may not be worth it and they should assess their situation to determine that. Since no one can promise there will be a significant drop (20% is what we've come to agree upon) and that it's all speculative, to tell people to wait may result in them not getting the home they want, for the price they want, in the area they want, for the financing they want.

You assume people can get the house they want for the price they want in the area they want now.  The problem is the inventory is still relatively low, housing is expensive currently.  If inventory creeps higher and less people are buying, dont you think future buyers will have more selection at better prices than current buyers?

You're hedging the present against an unknown future and yes, that is a risk we all take every day but unless someone here is from the future and knows exactly what is going to happen, you really need to just use what you know today and decide for yourself if it's worth it.

Thats exactly what Im doing.  The exception is that the future may not be that unknown.  Housing numbers continue to drop and in all honesty I do not see a complete and sudden reversal.  Do you?  What we do know today is that inventory is still fairly low and prices are high.  However as the data shows, this is changing rapidly every month.  So to follow your instructions, if we take what we know now and compare it to the ever changing conditions, it doesnt seem like a bad thing to wait.

The main benefits to not waiting is you get to live in your own home now, you no longer have to shop, you don't have to deal with a landlord (we had a bad one at one point in time), you don't have to move your kids to different areas/schools/friends, you can get on with your life and stop worrying about timing the market right.

I wont argue with you as these are all benefits to owning a house.  However this discussion has been about whether one should wait or buy now based on current housing slowdown.  These benefits have nothing to do with a slowdown.  BTW your argument literally went from its just seasonal slowdown to buy now because 1.  you get to live in your own home now 2.  you dont have to shop  3.  dont have to deal with a landlord  4.  etc etc.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

First, I'm not "urging people". I am saying that to certain people, waiting for a 5% drop may not be worth it and they should assess their situation to determine that. Since no one can promise there will be a significant drop (20% is what we've come to agree upon) and that it's all speculative, to tell people to wait may result in them not getting the home they want, for the price they want, in the area they want, for the financing they want.

You assume people can get the house they want for the price they want in the area they want now.  The problem is the inventory is still relatively low, housing is expensive currently.  If inventory creeps higher and less people are buying, dont you think future buyers will have more selection at better prices than current buyers?

You're hedging the present against an unknown future and yes, that is a risk we all take every day but unless someone here is from the future and knows exactly what is going to happen, you really need to just use what you know today and decide for yourself if it's worth it.

Thats exactly what Im doing.  The exception is that the future may not be that unknown.  Housing numbers continue to drop and in all honesty I do not see a complete and sudden reversal.  Do you?  What we do know today is that inventory is still fairly low and prices are high.  However as the data shows, this is changing rapidly every month.  So to follow your instructions, if we take what we know now and compare it to the ever changing conditions, it doesnt seem like a bad thing to wait.

The main benefits to not waiting is you get to live in your own home now, you no longer have to shop, you don't have to deal with a landlord (we had a bad one at one point in time), you don't have to move your kids to different areas/schools/friends, you can get on with your life and stop worrying about timing the market right.

I wont argue with you as these are all benefits to owning a house.  However this discussion has been about whether one should wait or buy now based on current housing slowdown.  These benefits have nothing to do with a slowdown.  BTW your argument literally went from its just seasonal slowdown to buy now because 1.  you get to live in your own home now 2.  you dont have to shop  3.  dont have to deal with a landlord  4.  etc etc.

I thanks you for the wrong reasons.

How do I take back the thank you.

Let's face it. Mecco will be lifer-renter.