Housing Analysis

[meccos12]

First, I'm not "urging people". I am saying that to certain people, waiting for a 5% drop may not be worth it and they should assess their situation to determine that. Since no one can promise there will be a significant drop (20% is what we've come to agree upon) and that it's all speculative, to tell people to wait may result in them not getting the home they want, for the price they want, in the area they want, for the financing they want.

You assume people can get the house they want for the price they want in the area they want now.  The problem is the inventory is still relatively low, housing is expensive currently.  If inventory creeps higher and less people are buying, dont you think future buyers will have more selection at better prices than current buyers?

You're hedging the present against an unknown future and yes, that is a risk we all take every day but unless someone here is from the future and knows exactly what is going to happen, you really need to just use what you know today and decide for yourself if it's worth it.

Thats exactly what Im doing.  The exception is that the future may not be that unknown.  Housing numbers continue to drop and in all honesty I do not see a complete and sudden reversal.  Do you?  What we do know today is that inventory is still fairly low and prices are high.  However as the data shows, this is changing rapidly every month.  So to follow your instructions, if we take what we know now and compare it to the ever changing conditions, it doesnt seem like a bad thing to wait.

The main benefits to not waiting is you get to live in your own home now, you no longer have to shop, you don't have to deal with a landlord (we had a bad one at one point in time), you don't have to move your kids to different areas/schools/friends, you can get on with your life and stop worrying about timing the market right.

I wont argue with you as these are all benefits to owning a house.  However this discussion has been about whether one should wait or buy now based on current housing slowdown.  These benefits have nothing to do with a slowdown.  BTW your argument literally went from its just seasonal slowdown to buy now because 1.  you get to live in your own home now 2.  you dont have to shop  3.  dont have to deal with a landlord  4.  etc etc.

I thanks you for the wrong reasons.

How do I take back the thank you.

Let's face it. Mecco will be lifer-renter.

You're welcome .

I do not rent but does that change the argument any?  Am I more credible if I own and less if I rent?  Perhaps people who own are more biased against a housing slowdown?  Are you over-leveraged?  Is most of your wealth in your house?  Doesnt this sound ridiculous?

You always go for the personal attacks but do not seem to have much to add to this conversation.  Do you have any thoughtful comments besides us talking to a sales agent to see how new homes are being GOBBLED up?  LOL 

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Hey, nothing wrong with renting.


Don?t take it too personal. For Entertainment Only. LOL

 

[irvinehomeowner]

First, I'm not "urging people". I am saying that to certain people, waiting for a 5% drop may not be worth it and they should assess their situation to determine that. Since no one can promise there will be a significant drop (20% is what we've come to agree upon) and that it's all speculative, to tell people to wait may result in them not getting the home they want, for the price they want, in the area they want, for the financing they want.

You assume people can get the house they want for the price they want in the area they want now.  The problem is the inventory is still relatively low, housing is expensive currently. 

Why do you keep throwing out my parameters? It's not an assumption, that's the reasons I used to not wait... if they found the house in the area they want for a price they can afford now.

If inventory creeps higher and less people are buying, dont you think future buyers will have more selection at better prices than current buyers?

Wait. If inventory creeps higher and prices go down... how would it be less people are buying? You would have more competition for the good homes... which as I said before, won't have the lower prices. Did you not read what USC and I said pages ago?

You're hedging the present against an unknown future and yes, that is a risk we all take every day but unless someone here is from the future and knows exactly what is going to happen, you really need to just use what you know today and decide for yourself if it's worth it.

Thats exactly what Im doing.  The exception is that the future may not be that unknown.  Housing numbers continue to drop and in all honesty I do not see a complete and sudden reversal.  Do you?  What we do know today is that inventory is still fairly low and prices are high.  However as the data shows, this is changing rapidly every month.  So to follow your instructions, if we take what we know now and compare it to the ever changing conditions, it doesnt seem like a bad thing to wait.

So before you say I'm putting words in your mouth, you just said it... "the future may not be unknown". I don't know that, thus I can only operate on what the present tells us, as most have said (including articles, "experts", etc) that it could be a 5% drop. You said yourself that no one has claimed a 20% drop... so if that's the case... maybe you don't need to wait.

The main benefits to not waiting is you get to live in your own home now, you no longer have to shop, you don't have to deal with a landlord (we had a bad one at one point in time), you don't have to move your kids to different areas/schools/friends, you can get on with your life and stop worrying about timing the market right.

I wont argue with you as these are all benefits to owning a house.  However this discussion has been about whether one should wait or buy now based on current housing slowdown.  These benefits have nothing to do with a slowdown.

Exactly. So regardless if it's a slowdown or not, those are the reasons why you may consider not waiting.... because you want to own a home. Finally you get it.

BTW your argument literally went from its just seasonal slowdown to buy now because 1.  you get to live in your own home now 2.  you dont have to shop  3.  dont have to deal with a landlord  4.  etc etc.

No it didn't. You would like to think that but I have been very clear from the start. Go back and look, there were distinct issues I talked about:

There are 3 issues that are getting intermingled here:

1. The depth of the slowdown
2. If the slowdown is seasonal
3. Without knowing how much of a slowdown, is it worth putting off buying?

You just asked me what benefits are for those who buy now.

I didn't shift my argument, I answered your question. There is a difference.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Describe your home buying experience. Did you time it? Did you get what you wanted where you wanted?

Still waiting for meccos' answer on this.

 

[meccos12]

Hey, nothing wrong with renting.


Don?t take it too personal. For Entertainment Only. LOL

I just find it amusing that you have nothing to say so all you can do is try to put down renters.  LOLLOLOLOOOOL  Winner!

 

[meccos12]

Describe your home buying experience. Did you time it? Did you get what you wanted where you wanted?

Still waiting for meccos' answer on this.

Its not a perfect house nor was the experience.  We made compromises and picked the best that was available.  We didnt try to time things but we also bought 3 years ago when things were not peaking like it is now.  So why is this so important and what does this prove? 

Funny how you and CV seem to be more interested in me than whats actually happening with housing and the purpose of this discussion.  I realize people usually try to get personal when they have nothing better to say regarding actual facts.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Describe your home buying experience. Did you time it? Did you get what you wanted where you wanted?

Still waiting for meccos' answer on this.

Its not a perfect house nor was the experience.  We made compromises and picked the best that was available.  We didnt try to time things but we also bought 3 years ago when things were not peaking like it is now.  So why is this so important and what does this prove? 

Funny how you and CV seem to be more interested in me than whats actually happening with housing and the purpose of this discussion.  I realize people usually try to get personal when they have nothing better to say regarding actual facts.

Funny how you jump to conclusions to try to discredit my opinion.

I ask because it gives me perspective on your opinion. Just like my experience has something to do with my opinion, I just wanted to know what your home buying experience was like.

I hated waiting. Holding off until the next new home tract to see if their floor plans/locations were better than existing ones. Comparing them to resale homes by price, location, MRs, etc. it was a big headache for us and although we liked looking at the new home decor, it was tiresome.

I apologize if you think personal experiences don?t matter but to me they should considering this is a purchase of your home, not a stock or a CD.

And you forget that in Irvine it?s non fundamental factors like this that go against what should happen based on ?actual facts?.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I will respond to this later.

But dang, trick or treater flood my street. Maybe because we gives out full-size several selection of candy bars. Kids kept knocking and nearly knocked our doors down. It was fun though for kids and family. This is what Irvine is all about. Great fun and safe for all ages.

 

[bones]

I will respond to this later.

But dang, trick or treater flood my street. Maybe because we gives out full-size several selection of candy bars. Kids kept knocking and nearly knocked our doors down. It was fun though for kids and family. This is what Irvine is all about. Great fun and safe for all ages.

I was there!  Saw a post on next door about the full size bars. Hopped on my orange bike immediately.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I will respond to this later.

But dang, trick or treater flood my street. Maybe because we gives out full-size several selection of candy bars. Kids kept knocking and nearly knocked our doors down. It was fun though for kids and family. This is what Irvine is all about. Great fun and safe for all ages.

Well see, there is a kid inside all of us. Happy Hallow

I was there!  Saw a post on next door about the full size bars. Hopped on my orange bike immediately.

 

[meccos12]

I ask because it gives me perspective on your opinion. Just like my experience has something to do with my opinion, I just wanted to know what your home buying experience was like.

I respect the fact that you are trying to understand my position on this.  However this post is really about housing analysis rather than people's opinion.  Although I have previously stated my intent is not to advise people on whether to buy or not, I answered only because I was asked multiple times about my thoughts. 

In the end, no one should really care about my opinion.  However people should care about the current state of the market, which is reflected in the stats and news I have been sharing.  Based on this, they can make their own decisions. 

I will predict however that the coming stats will continue to reflect weakness in the market and I will continue to share the news.  What people do with this info is up to the individual.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I ask because it gives me perspective on your opinion. Just like my experience has something to do with my opinion, I just wanted to know what your home buying experience was like.

I respect the fact that you are trying to understand my position on this.  However this post is really about housing analysis rather than people's opinion.  Although I have previously stated my intent is not to advise people on whether to buy or not, I answered only because I was asked multiple times about my thoughts. 

In the end, no one should really care about my opinion.

Sorry, but this doesn't make sense.

Analysis involves history, experience, data and opinions.

If opinions don't matter, then why did you ask me to clarify my position? Why did you ask me any questions at all? Why even say something like my "argument shifted" if you aren't taking my opinion into account?

This forum is all about opinions, if it wasn't, all the threads would just be links to other articles (of which also contain opinions). This was the issue I had with eyephone's posts, go into the political threads and his opinions are all over the place, in here.. he didn't explain anything (that has since changed).

The value of this board is what the people behind the posts are thinking and the ability to interact with each other. Otherwise, just read the news, watch TV and be done with it. I think you underestimate the importance of opinions.

Had you just posted "Data says it's a slowdown" with nothing behind it, I would have asked you the same questions I asked eyephone.

However people should care about the current state of the market, which is reflected in the stats and news I have been sharing.  Based on this, they can make their own decisions. 

I will predict however that the coming stats will continue to reflect weakness in the market and I will continue to share the news.  What people do with this info is up to the individual.

Data or news in a vacuum is just that. If all people needed was data, there would be no need for advisers, analysts, lawyers, blogs, forums etc. People want to hear from people with more experience, knowledge, know-how on what the data could mean for them in their situation.

I don't know what your profession is but I find it hard to believe that you really think that all people need is data. Even when I was asking for data, I also wanted the opinions of what that data signified.

Your opinion matters. That's what "analysis" is:

detailed examination of the elements or structure of something, typically as a basis for discussion or interpretation

The last part... "discussion or interpretation"... usually involved people's opinions.

Now you may disagree with that definition, but that's your opinion.

BTW: Isn't the thread you created about "Market Top" your opinion?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

eyephone claims he answered my questions. I didn't see a response from him between that post and now but maybe I missed it. I've only seen kenkoko and meccos answer.

So here it is again.

If the "slowdown" is only 5%, is it really worth waiting? eyephone? meccos? kenkoko?

If the slowdown is 15-20%... then I can somewhat agree with eyephone's position, but do you three think Irvine will drop 15-20%? And if so... when is this going to happen?

 

[meccos12]

I ask because it gives me perspective on your opinion. Just like my experience has something to do with my opinion, I just wanted to know what your home buying experience was like.

I respect the fact that you are trying to understand my position on this.  However this post is really about housing analysis rather than people's opinion.  Although I have previously stated my intent is not to advise people on whether to buy or not, I answered only because I was asked multiple times about my thoughts. 

In the end, no one should really care about my opinion.

Sorry, but this doesn't make sense.

Analysis involves history, experience, data and opinions.

If opinions don't matter, then why did you ask me to clarify my position? Why did you ask me any questions at all? Why even say something like my "argument shifted" if you aren't taking my opinion into account?

I asked you to clarify your position on whether this was seasonal slowdown or not because you would not directly answer the question.  I wasnt trying to get your opinion but to force to you make a firm position rather than being wishy washy.

This forum is all about opinions, if it wasn't, all the threads would just be links to other articles (of which also contain opinions). This was the issue I had with eyephone's posts, go into the political threads and his opinions are all over the place, in here.. he didn't explain anything (that has since changed).

The value of this board is what the people behind the posts are thinking and the ability to interact with each other. Otherwise, just read the news, watch TV and be done with it. I think you underestimate the importance of opinions.

Had you just posted "Data says it's a slowdown" with nothing behind it, I would have asked you the same questions I asked eyephone.

This forum is not all about opinions.  In general opinions should be formulated on some facts or some analysis of facts.  Unfortunately you have none which is probably you keep going off on tangents with such ridiculous arguments such as the one you are now raising rather than discussion and truly analyzing the data coming out.

However people should care about the current state of the market, which is reflected in the stats and news I have been sharing.  Based on this, they can make their own decisions. 

I will predict however that the coming stats will continue to reflect weakness in the market and I will continue to share the news.  What people do with this info is up to the individual.

Data or news in a vacuum is just that. If all people needed was data, there would be no need for advisers, analysts, lawyers, blogs, forums etc. People want to hear from people with more experience, knowledge, know-how on what the data could mean for them in their situation.

Strawman argument.  When did I ever say data was all people needed?  I believe I literally said people can look at the data and formulate an opinion of their own.  Rather than trying to make silly arguments such as this, wouldnt you want to discuss what the data is showing us?  You keep avoid the real issues in lieu of strawman arguments like this? 

The most ironic thing about this is the fact that you were slamming eyephone that he was not presenting any hard evidence.

I don't know what your profession is but I find it hard to believe that you really think that all people need is data. Even when I was asking for data, I also wanted the opinions of what that data signified.

Again I see you interest in my personal life.  For the sake of this conversation, would it matter much especially since the entire premise of your current argument is that I stated data is the only thing that matters - which is not true.

Your opinion matters. That's what "analysis" is:

detailed examination of the elements or structure of something, typically as a basis for discussion or interpretation

The last part... "discussion or interpretation"... usually involved people's opinions.

Now you may disagree with that definition, but that's your opinion.

BTW: Isn't the thread you created about "Market Top" your opinion?

Another strawman.  I never said that a discussion or interpretation does not involve peoples opinion.

Yes I made a different thread titled market top.  Yes this was an opinion of mine that I wished to share.  What does this prove?

Again you keep trying to push an argument taking it on a tangent and getting off the real issue (probably because you do not have much argument against the fact there is really a slowdown occuring).  Im fine posting data and news.  People can take it whatever way they want.  My intentions and goals are not to tell people what they need to do. 

Honestly though, it really seems like its gotten personal for you.  When people start making strawman arguments and trying to nitpick an argument to prove a point then you have strayed away from the real purpose.  Like I said, Ill continue to post.  People can read and formulate their own plans.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I asked you to clarify your position on whether this was seasonal slowdown or not because you would not directly answer the question.  I wasnt trying to get your opinion but to force to you make a firm position rather than being wishy washy.

Uh... my answer would be my opinion, how could it be otherwise? And I did answer this question, I do recognize it's a slowdown but I can't know if it's seasonal or not until next year. You have shown me data that does show time is different but at the same time, prices are still high and real estate, especially in Irvine, tends to be non-fundamental in nature that goes against the numbers and follows cycles.

This forum is not all about opinions.  In general opinions should be formulated on some facts or some analysis of facts.  Unfortunately you have none which is probably you keep going off on tangents with such ridiculous arguments such as the one you are now raising rather than discussion and truly analyzing the data coming out.

You're the one who went on this opinion vs fact tangent first, not me.

However people should care about the current state of the market, which is reflected in the stats and news I have been sharing.  Based on this, they can make their own decisions. 

I will predict however that the coming stats will continue to reflect weakness in the market and I will continue to share the news.  What people do with this info is up to the individual.

Data or news in a vacuum is just that. If all people needed was data, there would be no need for advisers, analysts, lawyers, blogs, forums etc. People want to hear from people with more experience, knowledge, know-how on what the data could mean for them in their situation.

Strawman argument.  When did I ever say data was all people needed?  I believe I literally said people can look at the data and formulate an opinion of their own.  Rather than trying to make silly arguments such as this, wouldnt you want to discuss what the data is showing us?  You keep avoid the real issues in lieu of strawman arguments like this? 

The most ironic thing about this is the fact that you were slamming eyephone that he was not presenting any hard evidence.

How is that a strawman? It could just be a misread of your post or you misreading mine. You said opinions don't matter and that people should just take your data and make their own decisions, what I'm saying is that many people need more than that. They sometimes need opinions to help them with their decisions. Do you disagree?

I don't know what your profession is but I find it hard to believe that you really think that all people need is data. Even when I was asking for data, I also wanted the opinions of what that data signified.

Again I see you interest in my personal life.  For the sake of this conversation, would it matter much especially since the entire premise of your current argument is that I stated data is the only thing that matters - which is not true.

This is taken out of context. I asked about your profession because of the part of my post that you cut out... that many professions rely on opinions of data. And that people rely on these opinions. And what I said is that opinions have value and that data is not the only thing that matters... if you agree then what I said got my point across.

Your opinion matters. That's what "analysis" is:

detailed examination of the elements or structure of something, typically as a basis for discussion or interpretation

The last part... "discussion or interpretation"... usually involved people's opinions.

Now you may disagree with that definition, but that's your opinion.

BTW: Isn't the thread you created about "Market Top" your opinion?

Another strawman.  I never said that a discussion or interpretation does not involve peoples opinion.

I never said you said that. I said that "analysis" which is what you were harping on, does involve opinions where it "seems" that you think it doesn't. If I misunderstood that, please correct me.

Yes I made a different thread titled market top.  Yes this was an opinion of mine that I wished to share.  What does this prove?

That opinions matter. At least to you in as much as you had to post a thread about it.

Again you keep trying to push an argument taking it on a tangent and getting off the real issue (probably because you do not have much argument against the fact there is really a slowdown occuring).  Im fine posting data and news.  People can take it whatever way they want.  My intentions and goals are not to tell people what they need to do. 

Again, you went there, not me. You asked why I wanted to know about your buying experience. I explained. I get that you don't need to tell people what to do, but others here have and that's where I chimed in.

Honestly though, it really seems like its gotten personal for you.  When people start making strawman arguments and trying to nitpick an argument to prove a point then you have strayed away from the real purpose.  Like I said, Ill continue to post.  People can read and formulate their own plans.

Just because you think I'm using strawman, doesn't mean that's true. One can always pick syntax or semantics and claim strawman and I have tried to clarify what I'm saying. To you it's strawman, to me it's simply replying to what you either said or asked me.

And not once did I say anything here was personal or that I even felt like you were "attacking" me to use a work eyephone like.

And let's set the record straight... I never insulted you, never called you thickskull or butthurt like you did in your Market Top thread... does that classify as personal? Or is that a strawman again?

I guess we will just disagree.

 

[eyephone]

Robert Shiller: Current housing market reminds me of 2006
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ya...chiller-current-housing-market-190046611.html

Watch the video. The current housing market reminds him of 2006 according to Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller.

 

[zubs]

Just using patterns:

1990 - market top
-=-=-=16 years=-=-=-
2006 - market top
-=-=-=12 years=-=-=-
2018 - market top?
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
1997 - market low
-=-=-=14 years=-=-=-
2011 - market low
-=-=-=13 years=-=-=- (extrapolated)
2024 - market low (predicted)


Analysis: downhill slide into 2024.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Just using patterns:

1990 - market top
-=-=-=16 years=-=-=-
2006 - market top
-=-=-=12 years=-=-=-
2018 - market top?
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
1997 - market low
-=-=-=14 years=-=-=-
2011 - market low
-=-=-=13 years=-=-=- (extrapolated)
2024 - market low (predicted)


Analysis: downhill slide into 2024.

I agree with this timeline.

 

[eyephone]

Any comment regarding Robert Shiller?s current housing market analysis?

Robert Shiller: Current housing market reminds me of 2006
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ya...chiller-current-housing-market-190046611.html

Watch the video. The current housing market reminds him of 2006 according to Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

2006 if I recall correctly was the mania, you got liar loans run rampant and creative financing taken a hold of mortgage industry for just a short time now. This continue to push housing pricing higher from 2005 to 2007. Shiller, may missed represent the timeline compare 2006 to now 2018. In earlier this year we have quick sale and still a nice appreciation in price until June-Sept 2018. This is when buyers balking back and gets nervous about the run up. In 2006 we have people jump all-in and resort to liar loans. Back then you could not beat the person their senses about the apocalypse of house dooms in the near future. Your hair dresser now pulling equity out from their other homes to buy more homes. Now we have people jumping all over the place calling it top so the consumer sentiments have changed drastically, which will help prevent a crazy, stupid run away wreck. Now buyers are more cautious and they will still buy, transactions still close BUT with careful analysis and budgets has to be proper as banks play the big brother and watch over their lending. Unless, banks relax some rules and regulations to force mortgage pipeline flow, IF, the mortgage market dead I see buyers now are well capable of buy and live in their homes for aalloonnngggg time.