Housing Analysis

[Mety]

Dude your a complete joke!

Prove it. Provide data that supports your assertion.

Post something meaningful instead of being Captain Obvious all the time.

I think you two have different approaches to take observations. eyephone did provide many good articles with his thoughts and IHO demands sexy graphs. I myself am not really a graph person, but you see everyone is different and Delano is sexy for some people.

But as of now most people except IHO and CV are saying - "yeah man, this seems to be a slowdown."

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think you two have different approaches to take observations. eyephone did provide many good articles with his thoughts...

Really? Most of his comments are:

>>
Link to article

My comments: Exactly what the article says (What do you think?)
>>

Seriously... someone give me an eyephone post with data, analysis and original thought. The closest thing was when he talked about people foreclosing during the crash and that fear may keep people from buying now (finally).

But as of now most people except IHO and CV are saying - "yeah man, this seems to be a slowdown."

Again... I know it's slowing down. Every article in the world says that.

But that's what usually happens during this time of year. What I don't know is if it will continue to slowdown or go back up during the spring. The data that you all are posting seems to indicate it is different but then my question is, how much? So are you all saying prices won't go back up during spring/summer months? I haven't seen anyone say exactly that.

All you guys are hedging by just saying "slowdown" but the more important parts of this is "how much?" and "how long?". That's the answer people need in order to make a proper financial decision.

Or am I asking questions you guys can't answer?

 

[Mety]

All you guys are hedging by just saying "slowdown" but the more important parts of this is "how much?" and "how long?". That's the answer people need in order to make a proper financial decision.

Or am I asking questions you guys can't answer?

We are not God. I'm afraid no one can answer the exact amount and time. People are just showing what's been happening and what experts are saying. We can say stuff like "if you buy now and sell 10 years later, it will appreciate," but then again we don't know how much it will appreciate then either.

I wrote this in other thread, but I think if we see the market not going back up early next year, THAT is for sure some sign of a serious downturn I think which could result MORE than 5% down no doubt.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Well, at least I'm not dealing with those people who live in Arizona and kept saying Irvine prices will drop over 50%.

 

[Mety]

Ok, let's see some possible scenarios. (in Irvine only)

1. The market doesn't back up next spring and it keeps going down, possibly about 10-15% following years.

2. The market picks up again next spring and it goes as usual seasonal, moving up about 5%.

3. Chinese economy collapses and world wide recession hits. Possible go down 20-25%.

4. Delano builds another tract in EW and MAXROI returns.

5. PS6 announces in Foothill Ranch.

Pick your choice! 

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Currently, every phase that release by builders are gobble up at every new community. Yes quick move in is available and with the proper discount, it got bought. Although these homes selling because prices given higher incentives, it is still higher in new constructions price last year. That is important to notes. Also multi unit attached, grinding slower in price but still expensive compare to last year. The builder still building as anticipation for continual increase in population.

Not scientific reading, for the last several months when I drive around Irvine, I noticed a higher percentage of cars from different states. The job market in Orange County is actually great and the census showed there are inbounds relo to SoCal.

Until the builders stop building or slow down the building and jobs disappear the danger of loosing property values will be of concern. If seller list WTF price and then reduce it, is that price reduction? Or is it getting back to the norm.

 

[eyephone]

All you guys are hedging by just saying "slowdown" but the more important parts of this is "how much?" and "how long?". That's the answer people need in order to make a proper financial decision.

Or am I asking questions you guys can't answer?

We are not God. I'm afraid no one can answer the exact amount and time. People are just showing what's been happening and what experts are saying. We can say stuff like "if you buy now and sell 10 years later, it will appreciate," but then again we don't know how much it will appreciate then either.

I wrote this in other thread, but I think if we see the market not going back up early next year, THAT is for sure some sign of a serious downturn I think which could result MORE than 5% down no doubt.

He is looking for a pecentage so he can come back and say you were wrong. It?s really hard to predict the percentage because there are so many factors involved. If you say 20% down and it goes 15% down he can come back and say that you are off.

 

[eyephone]

?Southern California house sales fall 18%, biggest drop in 8 years

Southern California house sales fell in September by the biggest rate since the depths of the Great Recession, the latest housing report by the California Association of Realtors shows.

Sales of existing single-family homes fell 17.6 percent from September 2017 in the five-county Los Angeles metro area, the biggest annual percentage drop since October 2010, CAR reported Monday, Oct. 22. The drop was the state?s biggest, with Los Angeles County house sales falling 22 percent.

In Orange County, sales fell 21.8 percent. Riverside and San Bernardino counties recorded an annual sales decline of 9.7 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively. Statewide, house sales fell 12.4 percent in September, which was California?s biggest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014, CAR reported. Economists with the industry group have been blaming higher home prices and interest rates for cutting into housing affordability.?
https://www.dailybulletin.com/2018/...fell-18-in-september-biggest-drop-in-8-years/

This is not a credible article? According to IHo nothing has happened..
If you want me to summarize the article let me know. I will be happy to do that.

 

[Mety]

?Southern California house sales fall 18%, biggest drop in 8 years

Southern California house sales fell in September by the biggest rate since the depths of the Great Recession, the latest housing report by the California Association of Realtors shows.

Sales of existing single-family homes fell 17.6 percent from September 2017 in the five-county Los Angeles metro area, the biggest annual percentage drop since October 2010, CAR reported Monday, Oct. 22. The drop was the state?s biggest, with Los Angeles County house sales falling 22 percent.

In Orange County, sales fell 21.8 percent. Riverside and San Bernardino counties recorded an annual sales decline of 9.7 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively. Statewide, house sales fell 12.4 percent in September, which was California?s biggest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014, CAR reported. Economists with the industry group have been blaming higher home prices and interest rates for cutting into housing affordability.?
https://www.dailybulletin.com/2018/...fell-18-in-september-biggest-drop-in-8-years/

This is not a credible article? According to IHo nothing has happened..
If you want me to summarize the article let me know. I will be happy to do that.

Actually I don't know what IHO's opinion is. He's saying he's been only ASKING how this is different than the usual seasonal flow. He's also ASKING what number and how long the slowdown will be, but he never really said his own opinion.

I think tis' the time that thou speakth ye humble opinion first. What do you say?

 

[zubs]

He thinks it's a 5% slowdown.  I read it back 100 pages ago...or something.  don't wanna dig.

 

[meccos12]

Again... I know it's slowing down. Every article in the world says that.

But that's what usually happens during this time of year.

When you say things like this, then you are implicitly stating this slowdown is seasonal.  Yet in other posts you deny you are claiming seasonality but rather just asking how its different from seasonal slowdown.

What I asked was how is this different from the seasonal slowdown we usually get at this time of year.

So lets be very clear, are you claiming this slowdown is just seasonal or not?

 

[meccos12]

Currently, every phase that release by builders are gobble up at every new community. Yes quick move in is available and with the proper discount, it got bought. Although these homes selling because prices given higher incentives, it is still higher in new constructions price last year. That is important to notes. Also multi unit attached, grinding slower in price but still expensive compare to last year. The builder still building as anticipation for continual increase in population.

I dont believe this is true.  New homes are not being gobbled up as you suggest. https://www.ocregister.com/2018/08/...entory-at-12-year-high-1022-unsold-new-homes/

Of course if there are proper discounts and incentives, homes will sell.  The point is that in the recent past, this was not needed.  Now it is for homes to move. 

Also comparing current prices to last years prices is pointless.  This whole thread started as a warning that housing is slowing down.  The slowdown is recent, and thus why would we expect prices to compared to a year ago to reflect a slowdown that just began to occur?

Not scientific reading, for the last several months when I drive around Irvine, I noticed a higher percentage of cars from different states. The job market in Orange County is actually great and the census showed there are inbounds relo to SoCal.

Completely 100% anecdotal that you are seeing higher percentage of cars from out of state.  Secondly, even if this is true, you are going to claim that that more out of state plates means more jobs which means more homes sold which means better housing market?  Talk about stretching!  Lets stick with real data and evidence because this is getting ridiculous. 

If I told you I saw less asians driving in Irvine, would that mean chinese and FCB are leaving irvine, causing more homes to be sold and housing to dump?  Pretty far stretching eh? 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Again... I know it's slowing down. Every article in the world says that.

But that's what usually happens during this time of year.

When you say things like this, then you are implicitly stating this slowdown is seasonal.  Yet in other posts you deny you are claiming seasonality but rather just asking how its different from seasonal slowdown.

Is that how you read that? To me that says that slowdowns usually happen during this time of year... seasonality is the default. If you guys are saying it's not seasonal, than what is it?

What I asked was how is this different from the seasonal slowdown we usually get at this time of year.

So lets be very clear, are you claiming this slowdown is just seasonal or not?

I didn't see any evidence that it wasn't other than people theorizing it is. You guys are finally showing me data that this could be different but as I've stated in other threads, for a sustained slowdown to occur, it needs a coinciding event. Until that happens, I can't be sure.

Even during the crash, I believe the ebb/flow of prices still went with the buying seasons of real estate.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Currently, every phase that release by builders are gobble up at every new community. Yes quick move in is available and with the proper discount, it got bought. Although these homes selling because prices given higher incentives, it is still higher in new constructions price last year. That is important to notes. Also multi unit attached, grinding slower in price but still expensive compare to last year. The builder still building as anticipation for continual increase in population.

I dont believe this is true.  New homes are not being gobbled up as you suggest. https://www.ocregister.com/2018/08/...entory-at-12-year-high-1022-unsold-new-homes/

Of course if there are proper discounts and incentives, homes will sell.  The point is that in the recent past, this was not needed.  Now it is for homes to move. 

Also comparing current prices to last years prices is pointless.  This whole thread started as a warning that housing is slowing down.  The slowdown is recent, and thus why would we expect prices to compared to a year ago to reflect a slowdown that just began to occur?

Not scientific reading, for the last several months when I drive around Irvine, I noticed a higher percentage of cars from different states. The job market in Orange County is actually great and the census showed there are inbounds relo to SoCal.

Completely 100% anecdotal that you are seeing higher percentage of cars from out of state.  Secondly, even if this is true, you are going to claim that that more out of state plates means more jobs which means more homes sold which means better housing market?  Talk about stretching!  Lets stick with real data and evidence because this is getting ridiculous. 

If I told you I saw less asians driving in Irvine, would that mean chinese and FCB are leaving irvine, causing more homes to be sold and housing to dump?  Pretty far stretching eh?

When you actually go inside of sale-office and ask about release phase and planned. Not sitting at home and browse the internet for what you want to prove. It also help when you visit park and swing by just a little chat to help you understand more. This is Irvine specific that I am referring to. Not OC as the article alluded you to.

Are you actively looking or just chime in when the sounds is already loud?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

All you guys are hedging by just saying "slowdown" but the more important parts of this is "how much?" and "how long?". That's the answer people need in order to make a proper financial decision.

Or am I asking questions you guys can't answer?

We are not God. I'm afraid no one can answer the exact amount and time. People are just showing what's been happening and what experts are saying. We can say stuff like "if you buy now and sell 10 years later, it will appreciate," but then again we don't know how much it will appreciate then either.

I wrote this in other thread, but I think if we see the market not going back up early next year, THAT is for sure some sign of a serious downturn I think which could result MORE than 5% down no doubt.

He is looking for a pecentage so he can come back and say you were wrong. It?s really hard to predict the percentage because there are so many factors involved. If you say 20% down and it goes 15% down he can come back and say that you are off.

No. I'm looking for a ballpark percentage to validate your advice.

If you're going to tell people to wait... a 5% drop may not be worth it.

If it's over 20%, then I can understand why you would say that. But... I don't think anyone here thinks Irvine homes will drop 20% in the next year or two.

 

[Mety]

All you guys are hedging by just saying "slowdown" but the more important parts of this is "how much?" and "how long?". That's the answer people need in order to make a proper financial decision.

Or am I asking questions you guys can't answer?

We are not God. I'm afraid no one can answer the exact amount and time. People are just showing what's been happening and what experts are saying. We can say stuff like "if you buy now and sell 10 years later, it will appreciate," but then again we don't know how much it will appreciate then either.

I wrote this in other thread, but I think if we see the market not going back up early next year, THAT is for sure some sign of a serious downturn I think which could result MORE than 5% down no doubt.

He is looking for a pecentage so he can come back and say you were wrong. It?s really hard to predict the percentage because there are so many factors involved. If you say 20% down and it goes 15% down he can come back and say that you are off.

No. I'm looking for a ballpark percentage to validate your advice.

If you're going to tell people to wait... a 5% drop may not be worth it.

If it's over 20%, then I can understand why you would say that. But... I don't think anyone here thinks Irvine homes will drop 20% in the next year or two.

Unless a global recession hits. Something like Chinese economic collapse and so on..

 

[sgip]

A preferred way to clarify data on housing is a pretty simple issue to focus on:

When we get October reports of a housing slowdown in September, recall that these are closings. A September closing means a July or August offer and acceptance - prime selling time, yet down in volume and price YOY. Take any data being pushed out, and back date it 3 months. It's normal to slow down - relatively speaking - in October. It's not in July / August.

At today's Broker Preview we had 8 new listings pitched by Agents. We also had Agents pitching 10 "price reductions improvements". That's the kind of real time info I'm seeing on market direction. For those housing junkies on the board, you may want to come to one of these meetings, providing you can contain your giggling at the inanity of some of the comments. More than one of todays ten price reduction agents said "I don't know why this home hasn't sold yet, just a complete mystery". Some day I'll overcome my sense of decorum and say "Um, I'm gonna guess it was the $100k over market when it first listed" out loud. ... or not.

My .02c

SGIP

 

[meccos12]

When you actually go inside of sale-office and ask about release phase and planned. Not sitting at home and browse the internet for what you want to prove. It also help when you visit park and swing by just a little chat to help you understand more. This is Irvine specific that I am referring to. Not OC as the article alluded you to.

Are you actively looking or just chime in when the sounds is already loud?

Because talking to a sale office and chatting at the park is hard evidence that homes are being "gobbled up".  LOL
I dunno about you, but ill take an article written in a major newspaper with numbers to back it up rather than speaking with someone at the park. 

 

[irvinebullhousing]

When you actually go inside of sale-office and ask about release phase and planned. Not sitting at home and browse the internet for what you want to prove. It also help when you visit park and swing by just a little chat to help you understand more. This is Irvine specific that I am referring to. Not OC as the article alluded you to.

Are you actively looking or just chime in when the sounds is already loud?

Because talking to a sale office and chatting at the park is hard evidence that homes are being "gobbled up".  LOL
I dunno about you, but ill take an article written in a major newspaper with numbers to back it up rather than speaking with someone at the park.

I think you need to read closely a bit more. Next time when you go for a free water while you visit one of the new park at the new home builder in Irvine. Stop into the sale office and see what going on for pricing and inventory. Then come back and tell me something I didn't tell you already. Done.

 

[fortune11]

One thing we should all know by now . This thing cuts both ways

The slowdown began well before major newspapers began Publicizing it like they are doing now

And

By the time you hear about the eventual recovery in major newspapers , it is already too late and you have missed the best deals

So keep your ear to the ground and look for signs from experts as well as your own personal legwork