Housing Analysis
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Dang, IHO. You gonna sell me out like that? Not cool, man. Don't say it's a fact 'cause it ain't. You just lost a little bit of respect from me.
I always said I don't know and don't care about how much percentage and YOU are the one who made a poll out of those numbers. To back up what I've said about the rise from years ago, I gave you transaction histories and you just ignored on those and came to conclude I'm just having an anecdotal observation. But I still wanted to respect you and your opinions because I was focusing on under $1m homes which you could have been in a little bit different range.
Keep having your own observations with Zillow or whatever data you are relying on. You are a person who won't change your view even if Irvine really did have a 25% fall. I still respect you as a human being, but I think it's not worth having a debate with you anymore.
You seriously need to read better.
I didn?t say *you* said prices would drop 20%, I said someone (thread too long couldn?t find that person) said it would drop to 2016 levels. Then when I asked what that difference is, that?s where you said it was 20%. Is that not true?
Then I think even meccos chimes in saying 20% is a significant amount and worth waiting for.
So that?s where that number is coming from. Not that someone predicted it but that?s the number everyone thinks is the ?worth waiting for? magic price drop.
But then if no one here believes prices in Irvine will drop 20% (not even eyephone), then what is the big deal?
That kind of price drop is what I would call a slowdown, otherwise it?s just course corrections.
Okay. Here is the post where I got a rollback to 2016.
But it?s obvious no one knows really how much prices will drop. Most say 5% in the next year.
Eyephone would wait... I wouldn?t if I could afford it now.
Opinions that paired with hands-on experiences is worth listen to or at least I do read the walls of writing
. Hell, no schools or txt book teaches you about FCB or Irvine potentials. Only the Irvine native that lived through the ups and down providing valuable free of charge advice. But take or leave, it up to those decide. I will tell you this, even in the darkest time owning your house will comes out ahead. Make sure you run your numbers and double check your employments prospectively. Job hopping is OK, as long as your field provide opportunities locally, without having to relocate to flyover countries.
I think you have to take the average of a timeframe in 2016 vs the same timeframe in 2018 to get an accurate difference. Using low and high is a bit misleading.
What is that for all Irvine properties (I know you said it devalues the data but Delano is an attached condo
)?
Sorry, I meant what is that number if you include the non-detached properties?
irvinehomeowner said:
Dang, IHO. You gonna sell me out like that? Not cool, man. Don't say it's a fact 'cause it ain't. You just lost a little bit of respect from me.
I always said I don't know and don't care about how much percentage and YOU are the one who made a poll out of those numbers. To back up what I've said about the rise from years ago, I gave you transaction histories and you just ignored on those and came to conclude I'm just having an anecdotal observation. But I still wanted to respect you and your opinions because I was focusing on under $1m homes which you could have been in a little bit different range.
Keep having your own observations with Zillow or whatever data you are relying on. You are a person who won't change your view even if Irvine really did have a 25% fall. I still respect you as a human being, but I think it's not worth having a debate with you anymore.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
You seriously need to read better.
I didn?t say *you* said prices would drop 20%, I said someone (thread too long couldn?t find that person) said it would drop to 2016 levels. Then when I asked what that difference is, that?s where you said it was 20%. Is that not true?
Then I think even meccos chimes in saying 20% is a significant amount and worth waiting for.
So that?s where that number is coming from. Not that someone predicted it but that?s the number everyone thinks is the ?worth waiting for? magic price drop.
But then if no one here believes prices in Irvine will drop 20% (not even eyephone), then what is the big deal?
That kind of price drop is what I would call a slowdown, otherwise it?s just course corrections.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
And yes, if you won?t show me aggregate data for Irvine to demonstrate how much prices rose from 2016, I will have to rely on Zillow.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Bullsback said:
Okay. Here is the post where I got a rollback to 2016.
But it?s obvious no one knows really how much prices will drop. Most say 5% in the next year.
Eyephone would wait... I wouldn?t if I could afford it now.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
No worries Mety... most people usually skip my wall of text... that's why I always have to repeat my opinion.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:No worries Mety... most people usually skip my wall of text... that's why I always have to repeat my opinion.
Opinions that paired with hands-on experiences is worth listen to or at least I do read the walls of writing
. Hell, no schools or txt book teaches you about FCB or Irvine potentials. Only the Irvine native that lived through the ups and down providing valuable free of charge advice. But take or leave, it up to those decide. I will tell you this, even in the darkest time owning your house will comes out ahead. Make sure you run your numbers and double check your employments prospectively. Job hopping is OK, as long as your field provide opportunities locally, without having to relocate to flyover countries.irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Who said that the builders are slowing down. Looks like they are ramping things up.
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2018/10/25/toll-brothers-invests-250m-to-build-thousands-of.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2018/10/25/toll-brothers-invests-250m-to-build-thousands-of.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Yet, another reason why the sell-of for housing won't happen.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-shows-the-haves-and-have-nots-of-the-housing-market-and-its-getting-worse-2018-09-21
Americans are staying in their homes longer, in large part because the housing market has made it so challenging to move around. That means that they're paying down more of their principal, if they have a mortgage.
Homeowners are sitting on a record $6 trillion in equity. Why aren?t they using it?
It?s great that people who own homes have, for the most part, done well. (It?s important to remember that not everyone has: over a million are still underwater, and far more are barely above.)
But the still-tepid amounts of mortgage debt outstanding are a reminder of those who aren?t so lucky.
Mortgage debt started declining slowly and steadily in early 2008, and has barely ticked up since then. 2008, of course, marked the start of the worst of the subprime crisis, when owners started to lose their homes at a steep pace. As the long tail of the crisis has worked its way through the system over the past few years, more mortgage debt has been extinguished.
Meanwhile, the home loan market has been tight, and many would-be buyers have been locked out. And in a hot seller?s market, buyers who can afford to pay with cash, rather than slogging through the time-consuming mortgage application process, usually have an advantage. About 20% of house purchases have, relatively consistently, been paid by all-cash over the past few years, versus a rough long-term average of 10%, according to the National Association of Realtors.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-shows-the-haves-and-have-nots-of-the-housing-market-and-its-getting-worse-2018-09-21
Americans are staying in their homes longer, in large part because the housing market has made it so challenging to move around. That means that they're paying down more of their principal, if they have a mortgage.
Homeowners are sitting on a record $6 trillion in equity. Why aren?t they using it?
It?s great that people who own homes have, for the most part, done well. (It?s important to remember that not everyone has: over a million are still underwater, and far more are barely above.)
But the still-tepid amounts of mortgage debt outstanding are a reminder of those who aren?t so lucky.
Mortgage debt started declining slowly and steadily in early 2008, and has barely ticked up since then. 2008, of course, marked the start of the worst of the subprime crisis, when owners started to lose their homes at a steep pace. As the long tail of the crisis has worked its way through the system over the past few years, more mortgage debt has been extinguished.
Meanwhile, the home loan market has been tight, and many would-be buyers have been locked out. And in a hot seller?s market, buyers who can afford to pay with cash, rather than slogging through the time-consuming mortgage application process, usually have an advantage. About 20% of house purchases have, relatively consistently, been paid by all-cash over the past few years, versus a rough long-term average of 10%, according to the National Association of Realtors.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Back when prices were on the rise again, I asked "Is this another bubble?". And the few answers were "no" because unlike the last one, these buyers were not ninja loans or faux financing.
So because much of what is owned out there, especially new homes in the last 8 years or so, are either by FCBs or WFBs... doesn't that stability factor in as something that would prevent a massive sell-off/price drop?
That's what CV's article seems to say.
But it seems that some of you agree it's not a "crash" or "meltdown" that is coming... or is that most of you?
So because much of what is owned out there, especially new homes in the last 8 years or so, are either by FCBs or WFBs... doesn't that stability factor in as something that would prevent a massive sell-off/price drop?
That's what CV's article seems to say.
But it seems that some of you agree it's not a "crash" or "meltdown" that is coming... or is that most of you?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Cares said:
I think you have to take the average of a timeframe in 2016 vs the same timeframe in 2018 to get an accurate difference. Using low and high is a bit misleading.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Cares said:
What is that for all Irvine properties (I know you said it devalues the data but Delano is an attached condo
)?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Cares said:
Sorry, I meant what is that number if you include the non-detached properties?