Housing Analysis
- Thread starter eyephone
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Good graph and good data points. As I mentioned before, we are and will be in a rising prices and rising rates environment, together ouch. I don't like it, but it is what it is. Or as Trump puts it, the FED is going crazy, bananas, locol. If I can shove a couple of those bananas up his *ss, I would.
2014 purchased 3.57 billion
2014 sold 0.35 billion
Yuan to USD 0.16
2015 purchased 16.09 billion
2015 sold 0.93 billion
Yuan to USD 0.16
2016 purchased 17.29 billion
2016 sold 0.71 billion
Yuan to USD 0.15
2017 purchased 6.63 billion
2017 sold 1.14 billion
Yuan to USD 0.14
2018 Q2 purchased 0.126 billion
2018 Q2 sold 1.29 billion
Data pulled directly from The Wall Street Journal.
Shanghai Composite index June 2015 was at 5166, today closed at 2603, down more than 50%.
Thanks , this is great data . The 2018 move in CNH (offshore currency ) is actually much bigger now , so this does make sense why buying is slowing down .
I would imagine some of the margin calls in equities may be behind some asset sales . But one thing to note , this is from my Chinese American consultant friends ? the stock market in China is not a great proxy for broader wealth (unlike here in the US) , people tend to use property as their savings vehicle .
How bad are local property markets doing in China ?
Not yet . There is a time lag on the way down just as there was a lag on the way up . Fed has to actually start cutting rates and bring the front end of the rates curve down for that to happen
But hopefully they see that financial conditions are now tigtening and warrant atleast a pause
To be clear, I asked how this is different from the seasonal slowdown. eyephone never provided data... just regurgitated links and saying general remarks like:
As for Irvine immunity, do you think Irvine home prices will drop as far and as fast as surrounding cities? Irvine didn't in the last crash, so what is different now?
And so put yourself out there, in terms of a price drop, what does this slowdown mean? 5%? 10%? 25%? You keep asking who is putting these numbers out there but you're not willing to take a guess yourself?
See. Statements like this provide nothing.
I never said that housing is NOT slowing down. What I asked was how is this different from the seasonal slowdown we usually get at this time of year. You came back with all these general remarks but provided zero data. Others have and have made a case as to why this is different.
My main issue is that you said buyers should wait.
This is where I asked how much is this slowdown in pricing going to be, because if it's only 5-10%, then maybe they shouldn't wait if they have found the house they want, that they can afford and that they can stay in for 5-10 years.
Has anyone here said that Irvine homes will drop 20%? Because that's the number that many of you agree would be a good case to wait.
Another useless statement. When did I say "good opportunity"?
Obviously, prices are high so if you are looking to invest or are just looking at #MAXROI, now is not the time.... but if you're looking for a place to live in... are not sure what future interest rates will be, not sure how much prices will drop... you may need to consider not waiting. Or you can take a chance and rent and see where that goes.
You just described yourself.
How many other homes have you bought/sold in Irvine? How many do you currently own in Irvine? How many real estate cycles have you been through in Irvine? Tell us about your myriad of experiences that makes you an expert on Irvine real estate.
I wish you would post here like you do in the political threads.
Prove it. Provide data that supports your assertion.
Post something meaningful instead of being Captain Obvious all the time.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Cares said:
Good graph and good data points. As I mentioned before, we are and will be in a rising prices and rising rates environment, together ouch. I don't like it, but it is what it is. Or as Trump puts it, the FED is going crazy, bananas, locol. If I can shove a couple of those bananas up his *ss, I would.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So Mety is finally looking at that Zillow link I've posted a few times.
They all have an up and down pattern that seem to follow seasonal timelines... that's why I asked if this time was any different.
They all have an up and down pattern that seem to follow seasonal timelines... that's why I asked if this time was any different.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Oh and I still don?t know why people are crediting eyephone with this slowdown thing. He?s just posting articles from the Internet.
There have been articles about this since way before this thread was started.
Halloween is coming.
There have been articles about this since way before this thread was started.
Halloween is coming.
fortune11 said:
2014 purchased 3.57 billion
2014 sold 0.35 billion
Yuan to USD 0.16
2015 purchased 16.09 billion
2015 sold 0.93 billion
Yuan to USD 0.16
2016 purchased 17.29 billion
2016 sold 0.71 billion
Yuan to USD 0.15
2017 purchased 6.63 billion
2017 sold 1.14 billion
Yuan to USD 0.14
2018 Q2 purchased 0.126 billion
2018 Q2 sold 1.29 billion
Data pulled directly from The Wall Street Journal.
Shanghai Composite index June 2015 was at 5166, today closed at 2603, down more than 50%.
Kenkoko said:
Thanks , this is great data . The 2018 move in CNH (offshore currency ) is actually much bigger now , so this does make sense why buying is slowing down .
I would imagine some of the margin calls in equities may be behind some asset sales . But one thing to note , this is from my Chinese American consultant friends ? the stock market in China is not a great proxy for broader wealth (unlike here in the US) , people tend to use property as their savings vehicle .
How bad are local property markets doing in China ?
One interesting item from the GDP report ? housing investment fell 4 percent , third consecutive quarterly decline
This is a housing slowdown now . Data is clearly showing it .
Doesn?t mean that you wait forever to buy but it is not seasonal and it is not just temporary . It is still quite shallow , and it is still quite manageable . But the economy should not lose one of its biggest drivers . Fed has to be concerned now .
Anyone still worried about inflation should rest easy
This is a housing slowdown now . Data is clearly showing it .
Doesn?t mean that you wait forever to buy but it is not seasonal and it is not just temporary . It is still quite shallow , and it is still quite manageable . But the economy should not lose one of its biggest drivers . Fed has to be concerned now .
Anyone still worried about inflation should rest easy
zubs said:
Not yet . There is a time lag on the way down just as there was a lag on the way up . Fed has to actually start cutting rates and bring the front end of the rates curve down for that to happen
But hopefully they see that financial conditions are now tigtening and warrant atleast a pause
It is what it is. People don?t want to buy a home when they can get cheaper later.
Look at the people who walked away from their home in the previous housing downturn.
It?s either they couldn?t afford the payment or they didn?t want to be in a house that is not worth what they paid for.
* I am not saying people are going to walk away, but describing the mindset of the potential buyer. (Psychology 102 -the American Buyer)
Look at the people who walked away from their home in the previous housing downturn.
It?s either they couldn?t afford the payment or they didn?t want to be in a house that is not worth what they paid for.
* I am not saying people are going to walk away, but describing the mindset of the potential buyer. (Psychology 102 -the American Buyer)
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
To be clear, I asked how this is different from the seasonal slowdown. eyephone never provided data... just regurgitated links and saying general remarks like:
Really?eyephone said:
Is that so?
This is actually the one thing that makes some sense. He doesn't think people will foreclose like the previous crash but I think he feels that this fear will keep people from buying homes going forward (at least I think this is what he means... his comments are either obvious or vague).
As for Irvine immunity, do you think Irvine home prices will drop as far and as fast as surrounding cities? Irvine didn't in the last crash, so what is different now?
And so put yourself out there, in terms of a price drop, what does this slowdown mean? 5%? 10%? 25%? You keep asking who is putting these numbers out there but you're not willing to take a guess yourself?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
See. Statements like this provide nothing.
I never said that housing is NOT slowing down. What I asked was how is this different from the seasonal slowdown we usually get at this time of year. You came back with all these general remarks but provided zero data. Others have and have made a case as to why this is different.
My main issue is that you said buyers should wait.
This is where I asked how much is this slowdown in pricing going to be, because if it's only 5-10%, then maybe they shouldn't wait if they have found the house they want, that they can afford and that they can stay in for 5-10 years.
Has anyone here said that Irvine homes will drop 20%? Because that's the number that many of you agree would be a good case to wait.
Another useless statement. When did I say "good opportunity"?
Obviously, prices are high so if you are looking to invest or are just looking at #MAXROI, now is not the time.... but if you're looking for a place to live in... are not sure what future interest rates will be, not sure how much prices will drop... you may need to consider not waiting. Or you can take a chance and rent and see where that goes.
You just described yourself.
How many other homes have you bought/sold in Irvine? How many do you currently own in Irvine? How many real estate cycles have you been through in Irvine? Tell us about your myriad of experiences that makes you an expert on Irvine real estate.
I wish you would post here like you do in the political threads.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Prove it. Provide data that supports your assertion.
Post something meaningful instead of being Captain Obvious all the time.