Hidden Canyon in Irvine
- Thread starter lcms2002
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
do you think its because $2M means a lot less now than 5 years ago or because the folks with contrarian viewpoints stopping participating?
personally i enjoyed hearing the counter arguments but unfortunately, many of them offered no advice other than just saying how dumb people were. #RIPIndieDev
I think Irvine has also proven how it retains its value and bounces back so it's harder to criticize spending so much on housing here.
One of the biggest things is they could not fathom why people want to live in Irvine but as you can see, it's not just owner housing that is popular, TIC keeps putting up mega apartment complexes in the Spectrum and they fill it up. Even over by Diamond Jamboree, they keep constructing apartment buildings.
Everyone wants the IHO view.
Actually if you followed IrvineRenter's advice on IHB (he wrote from 2007 to 2011) and purchased using his income method, you definitely did not get burned. If anything, you would have done very very well. It was not a doomsday cult and many IHB readers like myself owe the site a ton as we waited on the sidelines and finally bought when the time was right based on the indicators he wrote about.
The income method has flaws with the biggest being that rents can change in both directions. And as you noted, certain items are not worth as much to renters as owners. However, it provides a great basis for understanding what you are paying for and gives more insight than just looking at purchase comps.
Right now it feels like a bull market and people are optimistic about real estate so the negatives posts are minimal. It will be interesting to see how far it can go and when that trend of positive comments changes to negative.
I'm definitely guilty of having no legitimate business on this thread. To weed out rascals like me, maybe TI should have a new forum section just for those who can afford $2mil+ homes. We can call it "The Groves at TI" it would be like a gated community within TI.
Actually I feel like Lambert Ranch was a turning point that showed whether people just hated everything or realized the shift in the indicators. Look back at the thread. It was pretty divided and the mood started shifting. At least for me it was the turning point from waiting to buying.
Interestingly, I have never seen IHS positive of anything Irvine until Great Park. Is that a good sign or bad sign?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
There was a time when TI was IHB and people would be all over this thread telling everyone how wrong it is to spend over $2m on a tract home in Irvine.
#TimesHaveChanged
#TimesHaveChanged
irvinehomeowner said:
do you think its because $2M means a lot less now than 5 years ago or because the folks with contrarian viewpoints stopping participating?
personally i enjoyed hearing the counter arguments but unfortunately, many of them offered no advice other than just saying how dumb people were. #RIPIndieDev
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Probably a little of both.rkp said:
I think Irvine has also proven how it retains its value and bounces back so it's harder to criticize spending so much on housing here.
One of the biggest things is they could not fathom why people want to live in Irvine but as you can see, it's not just owner housing that is popular, TIC keeps putting up mega apartment complexes in the Spectrum and they fill it up. Even over by Diamond Jamboree, they keep constructing apartment buildings.
Everyone wants the IHO view.
The problem with this forum a few years ago is that it was dominated by IrvineRenter's way of thinking: don't buy anything you can't rent for less. The old IHBers wasted a lot of bandwith debating over how much properties are "worth." There are many ways to estimate "worth": comps, income method (IR's favored analysis), etc. But the fact of the matter is, a property is worth what an ACTUAL buyer is willing to pay for it. IR never recognized that owner occupiers and investors have different motivations for buying and different conceptions of value.
IHB back then was like a doomsday cult. Its members believed that the world would end sometime between 2010 and 2012 so they sold their houses and waited for the end so they could buy back in at post apocalyptic prices. The end did not come as predicted and a lot of people got burned.
IHB back then was like a doomsday cult. Its members believed that the world would end sometime between 2010 and 2012 so they sold their houses and waited for the end so they could buy back in at post apocalyptic prices. The end did not come as predicted and a lot of people got burned.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
The funny thing is I kept asking about how the 90s bubble recovered and they just kept saying that this time it's different.
Yeah... it's different... interest rates are even lower.
Yeah... it's different... interest rates are even lower.
Happiness said:
Actually if you followed IrvineRenter's advice on IHB (he wrote from 2007 to 2011) and purchased using his income method, you definitely did not get burned. If anything, you would have done very very well. It was not a doomsday cult and many IHB readers like myself owe the site a ton as we waited on the sidelines and finally bought when the time was right based on the indicators he wrote about.
The income method has flaws with the biggest being that rents can change in both directions. And as you noted, certain items are not worth as much to renters as owners. However, it provides a great basis for understanding what you are paying for and gives more insight than just looking at purchase comps.
Right now it feels like a bull market and people are optimistic about real estate so the negatives posts are minimal. It will be interesting to see how far it can go and when that trend of positive comments changes to negative.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
For those of us who can't afford $2m+ homes, we like to talk about other things.rkp said:Btw, this HC thread seems to go off topic quite a bit
irvinehomeowner said:For those of us who can't afford $2m+ homes, we like to talk about other things.rkp said:Btw, this HC thread seems to go off topic quite a bit
I'm definitely guilty of having no legitimate business on this thread. To weed out rascals like me, maybe TI should have a new forum section just for those who can afford $2mil+ homes. We can call it "The Groves at TI" it would be like a gated community within TI.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
You could come out to public forums, troll someone and then run back to the safety behind the gates.Happiness said:
Happiness said:
Actually I feel like Lambert Ranch was a turning point that showed whether people just hated everything or realized the shift in the indicators. Look back at the thread. It was pretty divided and the mood started shifting. At least for me it was the turning point from waiting to buying.
Interestingly, I have never seen IHS positive of anything Irvine until Great Park. Is that a good sign or bad sign?
sgip
Well-known member
A great deal of the IHB Doomsday Cultists (nice term BTW) were looking at the "rates are going to rise" drum beat that never really got any louder. Suppressed rates and a tidal wave of money laundering All Cash Buyers allowed to the housing boom to play on and on. We might have been in a much different world had rates moved from the 4's to the 5's between 2011 and 2012 as some were saying would happen.
The Fed has gone full Japanese (ZIRP forever) when it comes to rate movement. Who knows if even a .25 bump in June will be enough to push mortgage rates up from here. Plenty of nervous money here and overseas buying MBS's like there's no tomorrow. Sub 4 rates means housing prices and sales volume will remain elevated IMHO.
My .02c
The Fed has gone full Japanese (ZIRP forever) when it comes to rate movement. Who knows if even a .25 bump in June will be enough to push mortgage rates up from here. Plenty of nervous money here and overseas buying MBS's like there's no tomorrow. Sub 4 rates means housing prices and sales volume will remain elevated IMHO.
My .02c