Economic Slowdown?

[irvinehomeowner]

@kenkoko:

I think you misunderstood my last post.

I was trying to explain to you my opinion of why they are connected. You never replied if what I am saying makes sense.

I disagree with you that a specific Chinese event will overwhelmingly affect Irvine prices. There are two major factors that you keep ignoring, the true % of ownership of Chinese FCBs and that they most likely won?t sell their US assets as several posters have explained.

And I don?t think anyone here is being bearish. We?ve all said to make sure it?s affordable. But if you have to buy and are trying to time a bottom, that?s almost an impossible task.

You should also admit that your own personal experience is highly affecting your opinion. You?re own experience with AI and your friend colors your lens when others are telling you to consider other things. Which is fine, we all are like that but you also have to consider your opinion and experience may be in the minority and just accept it.

Just say it?s seasonal and move on.

 

[Kenkoko]

Thanks for sharing your opinion and your friend's story. I do want to ask, how come he didn't just rent out that Irvine home? Wouldn't that have made more money if he held longer as a landlord?

It mostly came down to math. It's much cheaper to own than rent where he's moving to. He also had 2 kids and 2 dogs which made finding a suitable rental much harder. He needed to sell his Irvine home to have the enough down payment for the new house.

 

[Kenkoko]

@kenkoko:

I think you misunderstood my last post.

I was trying to explain to you my opinion of why they are connected. You never replied if what I am saying makes sense.

I disagree with you that a specific Chinese event will overwhelmingly affect Irvine prices. There are two major factors that you keep ignoring, the true % of ownership of Chinese FCBs and that they most likely won?t sell their US assets as several posters have explained.

And I don?t think anyone here is being bearish. We?ve all said to make sure it?s affordable. But if you have to buy and are trying to time a bottom, that?s almost an impossible task.

You should also admit that your own personal experience is highly affecting your opinion. You?re own experience with AI and your friend colors your lens when others are telling you to consider other things. Which is fine, we all are like that but you also have to consider your opinion and experience may be in the minority and just accept it.

Just say it?s seasonal and move on.

We can disagree on Chinese FCBs. Afterall, it?s your anecdotal argument vs mine. Without hard data, it?s all conjecture beyond this point.

One thing I am not wrong on is the economic disruptions that will come with the advancement of AI and Automation. It?s funny that listening to experts and following data means ?colors my lens? to you.

Overwhelming majority of tech leaders / experts and people closest to tech agree on this. It?s the people who are less familiar who disagree.

You linked an article on the ?AI? thread which based the entire story on an Amazon warehouse manager. Should we really believe an Amazon warehouse manager over tech expert like Kai-Fu Lee? Has it ever occurred to you that Amazon might not want to tell the truth on this? No business wants to be labeled ? job killer?

As requested, I will admit that my experience in tech and familiarity with data and expert opinions have highly affective my opinion. Happy now?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Since you are so data driven, what percentage of Irvine homes are owned by Chinese FCBs that would sell their Irvine assets during an economic downturn in China?

I don?t think that number is as large as you are contending. I?ve asked you this before but you haven?t given me a straight answer.

On AI, whether or not the technology can disrupt the economy is not the question, it?s the hurdles that society will put up because they don?t want disruption.

Just like the last downturn, the Fed took extraordinary steps to prevent a worse situation. EVs should have been out years ago, but forces kept them from disrupting big oil.

I think AI adoption is farther off than you think. Instead of just listening to tech experts, you should also look at politics, psychology, legislature, societal and safety experts, religion, etc etc etc.

Just like you said, does anyone really want to eliminate jobs?

Data and experts has to fight the red tape of society which is harder than you think.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And you are misrepresenting my posts again. That wasn?t an Amazon warehouse manager who was questioning the short term automation, Scott Anderson is the director of robotics fulfillment for North America so there may be some weight to what he says.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

To the point of millenials having a dfficult era, such as today, I would say that every generation in past have had its own struggles and difficulty. The 60s, 70, 80, 90, and the Great Recessions era.

Alot of millenials want a fullfilment jobs with meanningful duties, rather than a job that can be use as a stepping ladders. A lot of millenials, rather have conveniences and pay more rather spend the extra time to DIY. Millenials, rather pays for that $10 toast with avacado. Or a cup of $5 latte should be at Starbucks rather than home brew.

All these will add up and at the end of the month, then they wondered where did my money go. I am not making enough to makes end-meet. And they look at the difficulty of obtainning a pricey home.

Not a lot of well to do people in Irvine are born into affluent, rather, because of their difficulties begginning enable them to work harder and save smarter.

Even in good times positions get chopped and companies has to change strategies and rights their headcounts. The best time to get laid off is when the econmy is where it is now. Plentiful of jobs, you get your package and severance. And land a job soon after. If the big bucks is what you after, the skills set has to be inline with the pay.

 

[fortune11]

Here we go again w the trade wars

All those who missed locking in refinancing a month or two ago , your second chance is coming  !

stay w it ... even lower rates to come -- 10y will go below 2%

 

[usctrojancpa]

Here we go again w the trade wars

All those who missed locking in refinancing a month or two ago , your second chance is coming  !

stay w it ... even lower rates to come -- 10y will go below 2%

I wouldn't be surprised if we even see the 10-year bond rate around 1.50%

 

[fortune11]

Here we go again w the trade wars

All those who missed locking in refinancing a month or two ago , your second chance is coming  !

stay w it ... even lower rates to come -- 10y will go below 2%

I wouldn't be surprised if we even see the 10-year bond rate around 1.50%

Yes, by below 2 percent I didn?t mean it will stop there.  we could actually retest 2016 brexit type levels

I have some thoughts on all this rates , economy, stocks , and housing which I want to combine and post in one of these threads at some point soon .

In the meantime , Recall I had advised everyone back in March not to chase Spx beyond 2750 to avoid getting burned ,

It has played out as expected. But I am still recommending NOT getting back in just yet . Stay tuned ...

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I meant to post this here instead of the 2020 Election thread but am wondering if the Fed will cut the rates and how will that affect the economy.

 

[aquabliss]

Yes - this is why I sold my stocks (at least index funds ) at 2750 area and am happily sitting in fixed income and munis now  . I am ok missing a few percentage points upside here until I am convinced that the earnings recession is behind us .

But my original point stands ? after the corporate boondoggle and loot of these past couple decades you are about to see a shift in labor share of income RELATIVE to corporate profits .

I?m just curious if you?re in cash now, what is your buy back trigger after missing a 7% run up?

Now, I?m not down playing your move whatsoever, I was very close to selling everything around this same level, literally probably had the order ready and was a click away. 

The reason I stopped myself is because I would probably have rushed back in after missing a 5% uptick then later calculated all the money I lost compounded over the years and cried... but being right twice (top and bottom) is just so difficult.

You may still have made the right call looking back in 6mo or a year, time will tell.

 

[qwerty]

I got the run up right and in all cash now. The latest with China is a cease fire, I don?t think a deal gets done so going to wait for the Dow/SP to drop and then get back in.

 

[aquabliss]

I got the run up right and in all cash now. The latest with China is a cease fire, I don?t think a deal gets done so going to wait for the Dow/SP to drop and then get back in.

I?m kinda neutral on Trump but I think he has some sort of magic dust to make the market rise, and he?s not done pouring it on... he?ll need an uptick into 2020 to help his chances of getting the big donations.

If one of the ultra progressive dems win the nomination I?ll think about selling if they poll well.  Bernie can probably beat Trump but he?s not going to be friendly to corporate America and I don?t think the markets will react well if he takes office. 

A Biden win (if Trump loses) is the best chance for the markets to continue trending upward.

 

[Kings]

market's not done on this run up yet.  g20 didn't produce a deal with china but it did mitigate risk of increasing tariffs and there weren't any crazy unknowns like trump calling xi pooh bear so since nothing negative happened the market shall continue to rise.

 

[fortune11]

Yes - this is why I sold my stocks (at least index funds ) at 2750 area and am happily sitting in fixed income and munis now  . I am ok missing a few percentage points upside here until I am convinced that the earnings recession is behind us .

But my original point stands ? after the corporate boondoggle and loot of these past couple decades you are about to see a shift in labor share of income RELATIVE to corporate profits .

I?m just curious if you?re in cash now, what is your buy back trigger after missing a 7% run up?

Now, I?m not down playing your move whatsoever, I was very close to selling everything around this same level, literally probably had the order ready and was a click away. 

The reason I stopped myself is because I would probably have rushed back in after missing a 5% uptick then later calculated all the money I lost compounded over the years and cried... but being right twice (top and bottom) is just so difficult.

You may still have made the right call looking back in 6mo or a year, time will tell.

I make one or two moves a year and thats it.  so when I told everyone to sell stocks in summer 2018 and then back up the truck on risk in December 2018 those were my two moves .  I was happy clipping my 18% returns since December and got out around 2760 earlier this year

The way the math works is not just straight line.  if you are in cash at the time of the market bottom , you are earning off a bigger base of assets than if you just held everything all year and didn't do anything at all. 

So making that move (selling everything in summer 2018) , I didn't have to worry about missing the last 6-7% today, since I was making money off a much bigger base (in simple terms, larger number of shares) in Dec 2018. 

There is a system and process I follow and it doesn't catch the "blow-off" tops at times.  But pays off in spades by defending principle and creates a bigger base to invest off of.

I am still holding my high yield funds that I recommended back in December as well - which have returned a very nice 15% now in that same period and also municipals which have been fantastic as well

I also told everyone to go long treasuries last year and if you did that, you made a ton of money all the way.  For those who care, I have largely closed out that position too earlier this week.

Only other move I have recently made is to go long gold in mid-June (GDX, GLD etc) - still holding that position and may add to it after the Fed rate cut. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

I think there is limited upside from here and the top in the near term pay be around 3,000 +/-.  I've began selling VIX puts along with VIX calls.

 

[fortune11]

I think there is limited upside from here and the top in the near term pay be around 3,000 +/-.  I've began selling VIX puts along with VIX calls.

Yup

(GNR) -- all we need is just a little patience

closing out the long treasuries position worked out as expected

i am still holding gold - the European and global central banks are debasing currencies matters also for that, but we will find out if i am proven wrong in a few months time. 

 

[qwerty]

I think there is limited upside from here and the top in the near term pay be around 3,000 +/-.  I've began selling VIX puts along with VIX calls.

Yup

(GNR) -- all we need is just a little patience

closing out the long treasuries position worked out as expected

i am still holding gold - the European and global central banks are debasing currencies matters also for that, but we will find out if i am proven wrong in a few months time. 

Fortune - I?m counting on you for my next entry into the market. Keep me posted!

 

[Liar Loan]

I think there is limited upside from here and the top in the near term pay be around 3,000 +/-.  I've began selling VIX puts along with VIX calls.

Yup

(GNR) -- all we need is just a little patience

closing out the long treasuries position worked out as expected

i am still holding gold - the European and global central banks are debasing currencies matters also for that, but we will find out if i am proven wrong in a few months time. 

Fortune - I?m counting on you for my next entry into the market. Keep me posted!

;D ;D ;D

 

[morekaos]

Of course....

The economic numbers are continuing to defy the recession hype

Economic data continues to defy expectations that the U.S. is facing a recession over the next year.
One gauge, the Citi Economic Surprise Index, is at its highest level since February and measures the data against Wall Street estimates.
Job openings remain abundant while small businesses cite a lack of qualified workers as their biggest challenge.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/the-economic-numbers-are-continuing-to-defy-the-recession-hype.html