coronavirus

[Liar Loan]

It wouldn?t be much worse. We will end up in the same place. The number of deaths will be the same spread out over more time. The number of infections will be the same just spread out over time.

Please post links that back your opinion with science and data.

You really are misunderstanding the concept of flattening the curve.

qwerty is right on this one.  The volume of cases isn't affected by curve flattening, just the timeline of when cases will hit.  The goal of flattening was to prevent a giant spike in cases from hitting all at once and overburdening hospitals.

Given enough time, and barring a vaccine or better treatments, there will still be 70% of Americans infected and 0.3% dead.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It wouldn?t be much worse. We will end up in the same place. The number of deaths will be the same spread out over more time. The number of infections will be the same just spread out over time.

Please post links that back your opinion with science and data.

You really are misunderstanding the concept of flattening the curve.

qwerty is right on this one.  The volume of cases isn't affected by curve flattening, just the timeline of when cases will hit.  The goal of flattening was to prevent a giant spike in cases from hitting all at once and overburdening hospitals.

Given enough time, and barring a vaccine or better treatments, there will still be 70% of Americans infected and 0.3% dead.

Wow. I am referring to number of deaths.

Show me a link where flattening the curve will result in the same number of deaths.

 

[aquabliss]

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

?A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away.?

 

[qwerty]

@Iho - You really are misunderstanding the concept of flattening the curve. 

 

[Kenkoko]

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

?A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away.?

Which ends up saving lives. Look at the death toll graph of NYC attached.

Some of these NYers did not have the virus. But all were victims of this pandemic.

NYC should be a cautionary tale to people who think they?re invincible to COVID-19. Even if they don?t care about their grandparents, if they get into an car accident or have a heart attack, when the hospital is full, they?ll die on the streets like everyone else.

You can read the full report, prepared by NYC Health Dept., here:https://cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6919e5-H.pdf

 

[Kenkoko]

These are total excess deaths.

These all-cause deaths were calculated as observed deaths minus expected deaths as determined by a seasonal regression model using mortality data from
the period January 1, 2015?May 2, 2020

The painfully high # of deaths above normal so far: 24,172.

Yes, flattening the curve does save lives.

 

[qwerty]

Well you could also argue that clearing out hospitals and not performing ?elective? surgery on cancer patients or anyone else who needs ?elective? surgeries will cause deaths. I?m sure the economic downtown cause by flattening the curve will also cause deaths. They may not be immediate deaths which is probably get dismissed.

So we may be switching out one death for another.

 

[qwerty]

These are total excess deaths.

These all-cause deaths were calculated as observed deaths minus expected deaths as determined by a seasonal regression model using mortality data from
the period January 1, 2015?May 2, 2020

The painfully high # of deaths above normal so far: 24,172.

Yes, flattening the curve does save lives.

Another trustworthy model

 

[Kenkoko]

These are total excess deaths.

These all-cause deaths were calculated as observed deaths minus expected deaths as determined by a seasonal regression model using mortality data from
the period January 1, 2015?May 2, 2020

The painfully high # of deaths above normal so far: 24,172.

Yes, flattening the curve does save lives.

Another trustworthy model

I get that our trust in institutions is at an all time low. But if we can't trust the CDC, who can we trust? (Please don't say President Trump )

 

[qwerty]

last global recession cause 260,000 excess cancer deaths.

How many cancer deaths will flattening the curve cost this time around? I guess we don?t care about cancer that much anymore with covid being the the new IT girl in town.
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-downturn-excess-cancer-deaths-atun/

 

[Kenkoko]

Well you could also argue that clearing out hospitals and not performing ?elective? surgery on cancer patients or anyone else who needs ?elective? surgeries will cause deaths. I?m sure the economic downtown cause by flattening the curve will also cause deaths. They may not be immediate deaths which is probably get dismissed.

So we may be switching out one death for another.

I agree. There will be deaths of despair due to the economic destruction. Although they are harder to model for and harder to project.

I was merely pointing out that flattening the curve does save lives. These are solid data from NYC.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@Iho - You really are misunderstanding the concept of flattening the curve. 

Did you even read the entire article or just aqua?s cherry picked quote?

Remember, I was talking about reducing deaths. From the same article aqua posted:

So, does flattening the curve work?

It did in 1918, when a strain of influenza known as the Spanish flu caused a global pandemic. To see how it played out, we can look at two U.S. cities ? Philadelphia and St. Louis ? Drew Harris, a population health researcher at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia, told NPR.org.

In Philadelphia, city officials ignored warnings from infectious disease experts that the flu was already spreading in the community. The city instead moved forward with a massive parade that gathered hundreds of thousands of people together, Harris said.

"Within 48, 72 hours, thousands of people around the Philadelphia region started to die," Harris said. Ultimately, about 16,000 people from the city died in six months.

In St. Louis, meanwhile, city officials quickly implemented social isolation strategies. The government closed schools, limited travel and encouraged personal hygiene and social distancing. As a result, the city saw just 2,000 deaths ? one-eighth of the casualties in Philadelphia.

The city, now known for its towering Gateway Arch, had successfully flattened the curve.

There are even studies where flattening the curve will reduce infections if herd immunity comes into play. I would link them here but qwertunnelvision will just ignore them.

Again, find a link that says flattening the curve won?t reduce deaths. qwerflipflop already conceded the lack of health resources point but I guess he forgot.

 

[sgip]

Will be interesting to compare rates of suicide to 1918 and 2020 pandemics. Sad, but needed info.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Look on the bright side people, Wisconsin has volunteered to show us if the rona Is going to take the summer off.  We will have a pretty solid answer by middle of June and I?d guess a good hint by Memorial Day.

Pretty much perfect timing, two weeks to get the ball rolling and then a holiday weekend of gatherings.  Mostly outdoors.

Yeah, I saw on the news that they opened up bars and they were packed with people...it'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks over there.

 

[qwerty]

Wow you are comparing 1918 to 2020? And you are comparing the the flu to covid? I thought you said it wasn?t comparable? 

So even if I agree with you on the flattening the curve saves death, which I don?t, how do you figure in other deaths. Did you see the excess cancer deaths from the last recession? 260,000 deaths.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Wow you are comparing 1918 to 2020? And you are comparing the the flu to covid? I thought you said it wasn?t comparable? 

So even if I agree with you on the flattening the curve saves death, which I don?t, how do you figure in other deaths. Did you see the excess cancer deaths from the last recession? 260,000 deaths.

Stop being silly. That was from aqua?s link.

The whole concept of flattening the curve is to slow the spread of infections and reduce deaths. Why you don?t get it is mind boggling... it?s not my opinion, it?s a medical fact.

It?s like I?m Dr. Fauci with science and data and you?re Trump with phrases like ?magically disappear?.

 

[Kenkoko]

So even if I agree with you on the flattening the curve saves death, which I don?t, how do you figure in other deaths. Did you see the excess cancer deaths from the last recession? 260,000 deaths.

I didn't respond to that because it's a fallacy. If we did not lock-down, we increase the likelihood of overwhelming the healthcare system. When that happens, you'd see way more deaths than just people dying from not getting elective cancer surgery.

 

[qwerty]

So even if I agree with you on the flattening the curve saves death, which I don?t, how do you figure in other deaths. Did you see the excess cancer deaths from the last recession? 260,000 deaths.

I didn't respond to that because it's a fallacy. If we did not lock-down, we increase the likelihood of overwhelming the healthcare system. When that happens, you'd see way more deaths than just people dying from not getting elective cancer surgery.

That was actually directed to IHO

So if I understand the curve concept, we are talking about one set of deaths, those are covid 19 deaths. But you guys overlay another set of deaths to say you save lives. 

Maybe it?s you guys who don?t understand the concept of the curve

 

[Kenkoko]

Flattening the curve is a public health strategy.

One of the primary goals of flattening the curve is to save lives.

By now, most people likely have seen one of those government "Stay Home Save Lives" ads.

You're making it sound like an unrelated side effect when it's clearly a main objective.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatten_the_curve

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It?s no use.

I was going to post that Wikipedia link too but qwerty won?t read it because it goes against his position that flattening the curve does not reduce deaths.

He probably thinks the earth is flat too.

#flattentheearth