coronavirus
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Here is a link to a better article discussing California's Herd Immunity:https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-california-herd-immunity/
It is an interesting theory and would match up with my clinical experience. We did see a surge of "flu"/pneumonia patients in the Fall in SoCal. If COIVD has been circulating in the community for that long, then many folks have already been exposed. This is only a theory and until we get widespread antibody testing, we can't be sure.
Whatever the reason for California's good fortune, sound public health policy will dictate we continue home isolation/social distancing for a while. We need to take advantage of this flattening of our curve: start using masks in public, increase PPE and related medical supplies for healthcare, and massively ramp up PCR nasal swab testing and start antibody testing as well. Ultimately a vaccine (which is a long way off) will be the long term solution.
This is the scariest part of it.
Whether or not previous exposure creates immunity, there still has to be part of the population who are naturally immune (like Matt Damon
). If we could identify that, we may be able to do more.
Even if you have been infected and recovered, it does not guarantee immunity. Other viruses offer immunity but this is a novel virus and experts aren't sure yet. Like flu, this thing could have different strains/mutate making immunity and vaccination development difficult.
The fact that people test positive a 2nd time after recovering could simply be a function of residual virus particles in their nose as opposed to active infection. I'm not sure what test they use in Korea, but the more common test in the US detects minute amounts of viral protein (RNA)in your nose. You can fully recover and not necessarily be infectious, yet still detect this protein. It may also be the case, some of these people could be getting co-infected or newly infected with something else--bacterial pneumonia, influenza, and/or other virus-causing new symptoms to appear.
Yes, thats what I was thinking - So many visitors from China visit CA and yet the number of cases is so much lower compared to NY. Just look at Irvine as an example.
One of my friends here in OC got an antibody test last week. He had a bad case on pneumonia last late year. Sadly the result came back: NEGATIVE
He's saying countless think they've had it, but so far his data isn't showing that.
JIMHO, the six trillion dollar question is how successful has NYC been in flattening the curve?
Are those NYC results barely avoiding catastrophe or a fairly effective if sluggish start on curve flattening.
Yeah, I'm going to go next week when I get back from Vegas to get the antibody test as I was sick in mid-Feb.
Flattening the curve will increase the length of time for the disease to move through the community. But this is a good trade off versus the alternative in New York City. A sudden spike in cases will overwhelm the healthcare system and cause needless deaths.
iacrenter
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Here is a link to a better article discussing California's Herd Immunity:https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-california-herd-immunity/
It is an interesting theory and would match up with my clinical experience. We did see a surge of "flu"/pneumonia patients in the Fall in SoCal. If COIVD has been circulating in the community for that long, then many folks have already been exposed. This is only a theory and until we get widespread antibody testing, we can't be sure.
Whatever the reason for California's good fortune, sound public health policy will dictate we continue home isolation/social distancing for a while. We need to take advantage of this flattening of our curve: start using masks in public, increase PPE and related medical supplies for healthcare, and massively ramp up PCR nasal swab testing and start antibody testing as well. Ultimately a vaccine (which is a long way off) will be the long term solution.
NY Post Article: More recovered coronavirus patients in South Korea are testing positive again
The number of people in South Korea who tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time after apparently recovering has risen to 91 ? an increase of 40 from the 51 reported earlier this week, according to a report.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters that the virus may have been ?reactivated? rather than the patients being reinfected, Reuters reported.
Health authorities in the country said epidemiological investigations were under way to figure out what is behind the disturbing trend ? as many countries are hoping that people will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-south-korea-testing-positive-again/
Immune or not immune? Idk
The number of people in South Korea who tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time after apparently recovering has risen to 91 ? an increase of 40 from the 51 reported earlier this week, according to a report.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters that the virus may have been ?reactivated? rather than the patients being reinfected, Reuters reported.
Health authorities in the country said epidemiological investigations were under way to figure out what is behind the disturbing trend ? as many countries are hoping that people will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-south-korea-testing-positive-again/
Immune or not immune? Idk
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
This is the scariest part of it.
Whether or not previous exposure creates immunity, there still has to be part of the population who are naturally immune (like Matt Damon
). If we could identify that, we may be able to do more.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Three main variants. Type A original mutated to Type B, type B mutated to Type C. JIMHO, that screams going to be seasonal to me. We really need mass anti-body testing to figure out how lethal they are in general instead of looking at highly sick population counts. Also need to break down and start testing by variant.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm
iacrenter
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:eyephone said:
This is the scariest part of it.
Whether or not previous exposure creates immunity, there still has to be part of the population who are naturally immune (like Matt Damon
Even if you have been infected and recovered, it does not guarantee immunity. Other viruses offer immunity but this is a novel virus and experts aren't sure yet. Like flu, this thing could have different strains/mutate making immunity and vaccination development difficult.
The fact that people test positive a 2nd time after recovering could simply be a function of residual virus particles in their nose as opposed to active infection. I'm not sure what test they use in Korea, but the more common test in the US detects minute amounts of viral protein (RNA)in your nose. You can fully recover and not necessarily be infectious, yet still detect this protein. It may also be the case, some of these people could be getting co-infected or newly infected with something else--bacterial pneumonia, influenza, and/or other virus-causing new symptoms to appear.
Irvinehomeseeker
Active member
iacrenter said:
Yes, thats what I was thinking - So many visitors from China visit CA and yet the number of cases is so much lower compared to NY. Just look at Irvine as an example.
paperboyNC
New member
aquabliss said:
One of my friends here in OC got an antibody test last week. He had a bad case on pneumonia last late year. Sadly the result came back: NEGATIVE
sgip
Well-known member
As a suggestion for this weekends viewing list, please take the time to watch the film "Network". Not only is it one of the sharpest satires ever produced, but so, so timely.
My guess is that by Wednesday, maybe Thursday of next week, we're all going to become Howard Beale.
My .02c
My guess is that by Wednesday, maybe Thursday of next week, we're all going to become Howard Beale.
My .02c
https://twitter.com/sacca/status/1248639093879107585paperboyNC said:
He's saying countless think they've had it, but so far his data isn't showing that.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
DBtoOC said:
JIMHO, the six trillion dollar question is how successful has NYC been in flattening the curve?
Are those NYC results barely avoiding catastrophe or a fairly effective if sluggish start on curve flattening.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
qwerty said:
Yeah, I'm going to go next week when I get back from Vegas to get the antibody test as I was sick in mid-Feb.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Are the anti-body tests even accurate? I think the one in Westminster is not approved by any medical association.
iacrenter
Well-known member
DBtoOC said:
Flattening the curve will increase the length of time for the disease to move through the community. But this is a good trade off versus the alternative in New York City. A sudden spike in cases will overwhelm the healthcare system and cause needless deaths.
