coronavirus
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Come November, what's the voting public's perception in the swing areas of the flippable States as to who holds the blame or success for whatever the death count is at that time? Or if there is a 2nd round of peaks?
Right now, before weekend numbers get their Monday firm up, we're pushing 21,000 with a few days to go to mid-month.
Trump is on video saying it's nothing and poof it will go away, to a few days ago saying 200,000 anything close to 100,000 is an incredible job on their part. Meanwhile, people are semi-living like hermits. Well, except those NyC essential workers that are packed like sardines in the limited mass transit service.
So if we tap out here with 40,000, does every one do the dance, high five and congratulate on a great job or do those swing voters ask WTF?
If he fires Fauci and Texas or someplace else has a round 2?
Honestly, sad to say it, but probably the best thing is if Trump does fire Fauci, does call to relax social distancing and stay at home orders and the States that listen have a nasty resurgence. I'm not saying that to be petty or partisan, I say that as I think the #fireFauci meme is like the anti-vaxxer chickenpox party memes and right now, with 20,000 deaths and it slowing there's going to be a growing group that again think the experts are wrong. That letting it run would have been 100,000 dead and a 'bad flu season'.
I asked before, I'll ask again, how many deaths before people start saying WTF did we lock down? If we end up with 50K or 60K dead by end of May, will people believe it would have been a million without lockdown? Half a million?
Ultimately, we still need the testing. Until we figure out how many people have had it, we have no idea what is the general population infection mortality rate.
This is a great question, but a loaded one. If someone can tell me how many deaths will come as a result of a depression the likes of which the world has never seen (starvation, crime, no health care for low income workers, etc), then we could easily compare the numbers and pick the one from which will end with less deaths. Nobody in their right mind "wants" or is "ok" with more deaths... but what is worse? This is a grand experiment of which we'll never perform fully so we'll never know the answer.
But you only end up with immunity if you get infected. So the choices are wait for a vaccine/treatment and keep people sheltered or just start building the immunity by letting this thing run its course throughout the population.
And let?s be realistic, we are not shutting down until there is a vaccine or treatment. We will start opening up between 5/15 and 5/31.
This has been my issue with this stupidity of the shutdown, there is no in between. You either shut down for 18 months or you do nothing. This whole concept of overwhelming the healthcare system at the expense of the entire global economy my has never made sense to me. It?s starting to make less sense to a lot of people every day.
Eventually in 4-6 weeks governments will be going to Aquabliss? plan. Older and at risk stay home if you want. Younger and less at risk you can go back while practicing social distancing.
Worldometer puts the death rate of 20-40 at .2% and 40-49 at .4% (and this death rate only has confirmed cases) About 50% of the US population is between 20-50, so about 165 million. Assuming 100% infection and that half are asymptotic, that puts the symptomatic amount at around 82.5 million, apply a death rate of say .25%, that means the worst case scenario using these assumptions would be around 206,000 but that is way to high, so my guess would be another 20-30k deaths in the 20-50 age group.
In addition to the deaths there is the personal suffering of those who survive. Just a "seems like" number from reading different things, I would guess at least 25% of those infected experience something worse than the worst flu they've ever had. Recent reports suggest those toward the worst end of the spectrum will see permanent detriment to their health. That's a lot of suffering. I'm not sure how it factors into the equation, but it should.
Yeah, I knew there was something wrong with that call for CA to have 25+ Million infected in a couple months when the entire world had a few hundred thousand at most.
Then Trump came out and said he didn't believe NY needed 30-40K vents and at first I just blew it off but then I started thinking about it and knew that was not realistic.
I do wonder what will happen after we're let loose though. I kind of think if things do get worse and we have to lock down again, people will say, fine...?. everyone else can do that but I ain't staying indoors for months again after I saw what a tiny percent sick/dying there was last time. I think part of Italy's problem is that young people live with old people and the young ones infected the old ones that really were staying home.
Two groups in orange county with the highest death rates, older than 65 and Asians. Makes me wonder if older Asians living in multigen housing are the ones in that group. No way to tell with the data we get but if that is true, maybe asymptomatic young people are to blame for infecting the older ones.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Come November, what's the voting public's perception in the swing areas of the flippable States as to who holds the blame or success for whatever the death count is at that time? Or if there is a 2nd round of peaks?
Right now, before weekend numbers get their Monday firm up, we're pushing 21,000 with a few days to go to mid-month.
Trump is on video saying it's nothing and poof it will go away, to a few days ago saying 200,000 anything close to 100,000 is an incredible job on their part. Meanwhile, people are semi-living like hermits. Well, except those NyC essential workers that are packed like sardines in the limited mass transit service.
So if we tap out here with 40,000, does every one do the dance, high five and congratulate on a great job or do those swing voters ask WTF?
If he fires Fauci and Texas or someplace else has a round 2?
Honestly, sad to say it, but probably the best thing is if Trump does fire Fauci, does call to relax social distancing and stay at home orders and the States that listen have a nasty resurgence. I'm not saying that to be petty or partisan, I say that as I think the #fireFauci meme is like the anti-vaxxer chickenpox party memes and right now, with 20,000 deaths and it slowing there's going to be a growing group that again think the experts are wrong. That letting it run would have been 100,000 dead and a 'bad flu season'.
I asked before, I'll ask again, how many deaths before people start saying WTF did we lock down? If we end up with 50K or 60K dead by end of May, will people believe it would have been a million without lockdown? Half a million?
Ultimately, we still need the testing. Until we figure out how many people have had it, we have no idea what is the general population infection mortality rate.
Heard some good updates from NYC today.
- NY seems to be reaching a plateau. Daily intubations down from 200-300 per day to about 70 per day. The current estimate is this plateau can last many days even weeks.
- While stretched to capacity, they were still able to give every patient a medical screening exam & stabilization.
- Testing: The only people getting tested are the patients getting hospitalized. Unfortunately, hospitals are sending home probable cases every day without any confirmatory testing. They just don't have the capacity.This is frustrating for symptomatic patients who want tests but can't get them in ERs. At this point, they assume if you have symptoms of COVID, you have COVID. A test doesn't change anything in terms of care.
- Hospitalization: No way they could admit all COVID patients to hospitals. Most hospitals have a protocol if your oxygen saturation is above 93% threshold, you go home.
Key data points they are looking at to reopen NYC
1) new hospital admissions need to be below 200/day for 10 consecutive days. ( currently around 400, down from 700 on April 1)
2) % of tests coming back positive.This rate needs to show 10 consecutive days of decline.
3) # of COVID patients in critical care. They want to see this drop for 10 consecutive days.
- NY seems to be reaching a plateau. Daily intubations down from 200-300 per day to about 70 per day. The current estimate is this plateau can last many days even weeks.
- While stretched to capacity, they were still able to give every patient a medical screening exam & stabilization.
- Testing: The only people getting tested are the patients getting hospitalized. Unfortunately, hospitals are sending home probable cases every day without any confirmatory testing. They just don't have the capacity.This is frustrating for symptomatic patients who want tests but can't get them in ERs. At this point, they assume if you have symptoms of COVID, you have COVID. A test doesn't change anything in terms of care.
- Hospitalization: No way they could admit all COVID patients to hospitals. Most hospitals have a protocol if your oxygen saturation is above 93% threshold, you go home.
Key data points they are looking at to reopen NYC
1) new hospital admissions need to be below 200/day for 10 consecutive days. ( currently around 400, down from 700 on April 1)
2) % of tests coming back positive.This rate needs to show 10 consecutive days of decline.
3) # of COVID patients in critical care. They want to see this drop for 10 consecutive days.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
While Apple and Google are working on their contact tracing tech, Singapore says mobile apps have shortcomings:
https://www.cnet.com/news/director-...-app-says-tech-isnt-the-solution-to-covid-19/
Will you opt into an app to forsake privacy over safety? And even if you do, there are no guarantees on how well it will work.
https://www.cnet.com/news/director-...-app-says-tech-isnt-the-solution-to-covid-19/
Will you opt into an app to forsake privacy over safety? And even if you do, there are no guarantees on how well it will work.
Nationally, we have hit a peak, though it is too soon to know if we have hit THE peak. Yesterday's deaths were down 30% from the day before, which is a huge drop on the chart. Today though will show more new deaths than yesterday. If it keeps dropping like this, a death count near 65,000 is feasible at the end of the month. I believe if SAH orders are lifted, then deaths will pick right back up in 2-3 weeks. Why wouldn't they? There is nowhere near enough immunity.
aquabliss
Well-known member
eyephone said:
This is a great question, but a loaded one. If someone can tell me how many deaths will come as a result of a depression the likes of which the world has never seen (starvation, crime, no health care for low income workers, etc), then we could easily compare the numbers and pick the one from which will end with less deaths. Nobody in their right mind "wants" or is "ok" with more deaths... but what is worse? This is a grand experiment of which we'll never perform fully so we'll never know the answer.
qwerty
Well-known member
daedalus said:
But you only end up with immunity if you get infected. So the choices are wait for a vaccine/treatment and keep people sheltered or just start building the immunity by letting this thing run its course throughout the population.
And let?s be realistic, we are not shutting down until there is a vaccine or treatment. We will start opening up between 5/15 and 5/31.
This has been my issue with this stupidity of the shutdown, there is no in between. You either shut down for 18 months or you do nothing. This whole concept of overwhelming the healthcare system at the expense of the entire global economy my has never made sense to me. It?s starting to make less sense to a lot of people every day.
Eventually in 4-6 weeks governments will be going to Aquabliss? plan. Older and at risk stay home if you want. Younger and less at risk you can go back while practicing social distancing.
qwerty
Well-known member
daedalus said:
Worldometer puts the death rate of 20-40 at .2% and 40-49 at .4% (and this death rate only has confirmed cases) About 50% of the US population is between 20-50, so about 165 million. Assuming 100% infection and that half are asymptotic, that puts the symptomatic amount at around 82.5 million, apply a death rate of say .25%, that means the worst case scenario using these assumptions would be around 206,000 but that is way to high, so my guess would be another 20-30k deaths in the 20-50 age group.
qwerty
Well-known member
On the topic of overwhelming healthcare, I?ve been reading a lot that a lot of hospitals are empty/laying works off in the midst of this pandemic. So is the healthcare system overwhelmed or not? An ER doctor I know was just hanging out at the hospital because the ER was empty.
It's counterintuitive for sure. I've asked the same question of some in healthcare, including a technician who is furloughed. In addition to Aquabliss' explanation, the other answer I got is that all elective surgeries have been cancelled (since they're not critical). Medical centers are often specific in what they're set up for, and Covid-19 often isn't it. I've also read feedback from someone who is frontline, and he's barely holding it together physically and emotionally. The "sensationalized" stories you read in the MSM are actually real life for some.
Thank you for the logical response. Although I agree the infection rate would be less than 100%, I also think it would be quite high relatively due to the long and infectious incubation period.qwerty said:
In addition to the deaths there is the personal suffering of those who survive. Just a "seems like" number from reading different things, I would guess at least 25% of those infected experience something worse than the worst flu they've ever had. Recent reports suggest those toward the worst end of the spectrum will see permanent detriment to their health. That's a lot of suffering. I'm not sure how it factors into the equation, but it should.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
qwerty said:
Yeah, I knew there was something wrong with that call for CA to have 25+ Million infected in a couple months when the entire world had a few hundred thousand at most.
Then Trump came out and said he didn't believe NY needed 30-40K vents and at first I just blew it off but then I started thinking about it and knew that was not realistic.
I do wonder what will happen after we're let loose though. I kind of think if things do get worse and we have to lock down again, people will say, fine...?. everyone else can do that but I ain't staying indoors for months again after I saw what a tiny percent sick/dying there was last time. I think part of Italy's problem is that young people live with old people and the young ones infected the old ones that really were staying home.
Two groups in orange county with the highest death rates, older than 65 and Asians. Makes me wonder if older Asians living in multigen housing are the ones in that group. No way to tell with the data we get but if that is true, maybe asymptomatic young people are to blame for infecting the older ones.