coronavirus

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Panda said:
Cornflakes. Let's take California's population for example at 39 million. 20% of the California population is 65 years old an older. Assuming a death of 6% which is the number I have seen for the risk at this age group we are potentially looking at 432,000 death. This is assuming that 100% of California's population is infected with the COVID-19. 

Another information that maybe of your interest is that Jan 2020 Unemployment numbers for Orange County has showed its first uptick of reversal at 2.9% for Jan 2020 from 2.4% in Dec 2019. I think this unemployment wave will now start moving upwards.

Orange County Unemployment Data.
Dec 2019 2.4%
Jan 2020 2.9% - First uptick from bottom
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When the damage the coronavirus inflicts on the U.S. jobs market becomes clearer, it could be unlike anything the country has ever seen. So, do you also track John Creeks job data which is the bulk where your busines, I am curious to know how both compare. I know that Buckhead is pretty techs heavy jobs and diverse, what about John Creeks? I think the diversity of industries matters to the local jobs. Here in Irvine, and OC for that matters, you have techs, pharmaceutical, bio, pharma, banking related as well as services and gig workers, well diverse before this crisis. The gig workers will probabbly hurt most. The other professionals, we work at home now but once the lift end, most have to get back to work. It will not be the same for awhile. Again, its the professional jobs that pays well enough to buy a condo which is 800K to start. And that is not a small amount. These gig workers not going to be able to afford homes in the first place.
 
I know. I feel sad for and angry at all the people that compare this to flu, minimize the pandemic, and go about their life as usual. These are the citizens that will make us all pay for the stupidity en masse.

Italy has 9% mortality rate compared to cases. It is not that their healthcare system is 8 fold worse than ours. It is a flood of cases and many people are not getting optimal treatment.
 
Cornflakes said:
I know. I feel sad for and angry at all the people that compare this to flu, minimize the pandemic, and go about their life as usual. These are the citizens that will make us all pay for the stupidity en masse.

Italy has 9% mortality rate compared to cases. It is not that their healthcare system is 8 fold worse than ours. It is a flood of cases and many people are not getting optimal treatment.
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Yeah. A lot of cases starting to pop up in NY.
 
Cornflakes said:
Just as a mental exercise, if 36 million infections recorded for COVID-19, how many would be hospitalized and how many would be dead?

I am curious.
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Another aspect of this that doesn?t get talked about enough is the limited ventilators available. This is another challenge in addition to not enough hospital beds.

Let's just play this out with ultra conservative math.

We have 330 Million Americans, experts project 40-60% will get infected.

Let?s take the ultra-conservative estimate, call it 25%. That?s 82.5 Millions infected.

About 5 to 10% of infected will need Ventilators. Let?s use a Trump-ian estimate since Americans are super healthy and global trend defying ? 2.5%

Even at 2.5%, you end up with the 2.06 million patients who need ventilators.

We have about 80k to 125k Ventilators here in the USA.

In the entire county of Los Angeles we have 650 ventilators.

Therefore it?s absolutely crucial we flatten the curve and drag this out. We need time so patients can get well enough to get off the ventilator and pass it to new patients who need it.
 
Kenkoko said:
Here is the new death count of the past 7 days in Italy - 189,250,175,368,349,345,475.

On March 1st, they only had 9 new deaths in one day.
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Here is Italy's new death count of the past 4 days - 427, 628, 793, 651.

Look at this progression  :-[

189,250,175,368,349,345,475, 427, 628, 793, 651
 
Kenkoko said:
Cornflakes said:
Just as a mental exercise, if 36 million infections recorded for COVID-19, how many would be hospitalized and how many would be dead?

I am curious.
Click to expand...

Another aspect of this that doesn?t get talked about enough is the limited ventilators available. This is another challenge in addition to not enough hospital beds.

Let's just play this out with ultra conservative math.

We have 330 Million Americans, experts project 40-60% will get infected.

Let?s take the ultra-conservative estimate, call it 25%. That?s 82.5 Millions infected.

About 5 to 10% of infected will need Ventilators. Let?s use a Trump-ian estimate since Americans are super healthy and global trend defying ? 2.5%

Even at 2.5%, you end up with the 2.06 million patients who need ventilators.

We have about 80k to 125k Ventilators here in the USA.

In the entire county of Los Angeles we have 650 ventilators.

Therefore it?s absolutely crucial we flatten the curve and drag this out. We need time so patients can get well enough to get off the ventilator and pass it to new patients who need it.
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You need the staff for the vents too and that is from multiple departments...?? staff that are not out sick themselves.

Pray for no natural disasters to hit us at the same time and please don't get me talking about the debt piling up.
 
Ready2Downsize said:
You need the staff for the vents too and that is from multiple departments...?? staff that are not out sick themselves.

Pray for no natural disasters to hit us at the same time and please don't get me talking about the debt piling up.
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Great point.

KTLA recently reported that we only have enough respiratory therapists, nurses, and doctors with critical care training to cover up to 135k patients to be put on ventilators at any one time.


 
But trying to save everyone/flatten the curve comes at a cost.

At some point the cost becomes to great. You can?t ruin society to flatten the curve. There will probably be more deaths from suicides/crimes as a result of trying to flattening the curve from all the people whose lives were ruined by trying to flatten the curve.



 
qwerty said:
But trying to save everyone/flatten the curve comes at a cost.

At some point the cost becomes to great. You can?t ruin society to flatten the curve. There will probably be more deaths from suicides/crimes as a result of trying to flattening the curve from all the people whose lives were ruined by trying to flatten the curve.
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JIMHO, if you really want to end the economy as you know it, you go with the flattening the curve is too expensive.  That way when the social media from their hundred plus ?friends? of 20, 30, & 40s start filling up with ?My 23 yr old cousin died cuz there wasn?t a ventilator left? ?my 30 year old neighbor is on a ventilator? and social media influencers suddenly look like shit and disappear for a bit, those 20s, 30s, and 40s, aren?t going back to their packed restaurants, entertainment venues and Travel and other venues.  That?ll go to about June, then it?ll calm, then like the flu, Sept/Oct starts coming back and November right back in the shot storm.

In general QWERTY, i like your Posts and respect your viewpoint, so take this as an honest critique analogy and not a direct accusation.  The flattening curve is too expensive argument is the anti-vaxxer chicken pox party idea except it won?t be over quickly and 1-6% of those infected die and it winds its way thru 100 to 200 million of the population and then comes back again and again to pick up those it missed.
 
This model predicts the last day each state can act before the point of no return:  (It also shows potential results from different mitigation methods.)
https://covidactnow.org/


You can de-select some of the mitigation methods by clicking on the corresponding color circles below the chart.
 
Also from the Investor's Business Daily (paper, sorry no link): Expecting between 1.5 million to 2 million in jobless claim this coming Thursday. 
Ohio's numbers are 139,468 from Sun-Thu contrasted to the week before which was 4,815.

The highest jobless claim number was in 1982 with approx. 685,000.
 
@Nosuchreality - there is no hair ant that this thing is not going to come back even with all of the current measures. Even if it was eradicated in the next month in the US, it needs to be eradicated world wide and in a similar time frame. With the world being interconnected if we stop it and the rest of the world doesn?t it will just come back. We are just going to have to deal with the consequences until there are treatments/vaccines.

I know this is not the flu, but somehow we have to terms that the flu comes every year and people are going to die. I still don?t understand why the world is stopping for this particular disease when it never has for others.

People die every day for different reasons. This is just another one.
 
PSForever said:
This model predicts the last day each state can act before the point of no return:  (It also shows potential results from different mitigation methods.)
https://covidactnow.org/


You can de-select some of the mitigation methods by clicking on the corresponding color circles below the chart.
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i'd like to see another overlapping graph that shows when the economy fails and people start looting because they don't have money for rent/food.
 
I see that we need to "flatten the curve" for lack of beds/ventilators, but the crush on our economy will bring an economic depression.  The mental health toll as well as physical toll of major financial stress will bring about more illness (mental/physical) as well as suicides, domestic violence, divorce, etc.  A lot of businesses will not come back.  Like the restaurants that are closed, they may not have to pay for labor right now but if they have no revenue, then how are they going to pay their vendors for goods/services already purchased, and how are they going to keep paying for their lease?

I agree with Qwerty that this "cure" will bring a lot of pain and it will take years to recover.

 
I understand that we need to prevent a surge at hospitals so I agree with what we have to do now, but I am not looking forward to the economic pain that will result.  This was exactly the issue that the panel on the Event 201 (Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation coronavirus simulation back in fall of 2019) grappled with, how to contain/mitigate the virus while not causing public panic and keeping the economy going.

I think containment was the key but it is too late for some states.  Unless we can miraculously increase the beds and ventilators to keep up with the sick, we now have no choice but to try to "flatten the curve" and keeping things going until a vaccine.
 
@qwerty yes, its too late IMHO to stop it, its too wide spread.  It will come back over and over for 12-18 months. That's the Imperial College report that is largely driving decision.  Multiple waves over 18 months trying to keep it to manageable levels.  Unmanaged it lasts as long and 6-7% fatality, maybe higher with the same or worse impact on the economy.

Manage and keep basic services going,  or let it run, ImHO, martial law and anarchy when basic services break down.

qwerty said:
@Nosuchreality - there is no hair ant that this thing is not going to come back even with all of the current measures. Even if it was eradicated in the next month in the US, it needs to be eradicated world wide and in a similar time frame. With the world being interconnected if we stop it and the rest of the world doesn?t it will just come back. We are just going to have to deal with the consequences until there are treatments/vaccines.

I know this is not the flu, but somehow we have to terms that the flu comes every year and people are going to die. I still don?t understand why the world is stopping for this particular disease when it never has for others.

People die every day for different reasons. This is just another one.
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morekaos said:
morekaos said:
We have a wonderful opportunity here to use a marker and watch the very public story of actual infection.  The public will follow Tom and Rita?s every tweet, ache and symptom. What a wonderful study....how much you wanna bet Eye, that they come through this just fine?  Won?t even make a good made for TV movie.
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They look pretty good....

'There is no crying in baseball':
Tom Hanks shares a photo of him and his wife, quotes his A League Of Their Own character and says he and wife Rita Wilson are 'taking it one-day-at-a-time' after catching coronavirus

[url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8107629/Tom-Hanks-wife-Rita-Wilson-taking-one-day-time-testing-positive-coronavirus.html[/url]
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All Better....

Tom Hanks reveals he and Rita Wilson both 'feel better' two weeks after contracting coronavirus

Coronavirus victim Tom Hanks has revealed that he and wife Rita Wilson are 'feeling better'.

Taking to Twitter he revealed that the two, both 63, were improving, a week and a half after they were diagnosed, while also urging everyone to stay inside to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

'Hey, folks. Two weeks after our first symptoms and we feel better,' he wrote.
[url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8141645/Tom-Hanks-reveals-Rita-Wilson-feel-better-two-weeks-contracting-coronavirus.html[/url]
 
That's what I wonder about... this 2-week incubation period.

Won't it just be a rolling 2 weeks until we are all exposed/immune because this isn't a seasonal virus that will die when it gets warmer?
 
qwerty said:
But trying to save everyone/flatten the curve comes at a cost.

At some point the cost becomes to great. You can?t ruin society to flatten the curve. There will probably be more deaths from suicides/crimes as a result of trying to flattening the curve from all the people whose lives were ruined by trying to flatten the curve.
Click to expand...

Everyone has a limit. We all know what the stakes are, but you can't keep imposing new restrictions on people for an indefinite time. No amount of "education" can make people sacrifice themselves for the "common good" because underneath our very thin veneer of civilization, we are still very much the wild animals that our ancestors were.
At some point, people will say enough. Then what? Is the state going to use force? Deadly force? Unless we step back and calmly look at the big picture, we are headed to Mad Max world.


 
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