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You must have spoken to qwerty.
This is not how it works. Now I really think you have long Covid dementia.
Try to think about it in terms of supply chain... maybe that will fix your math.
Simple explanation but not what those graphs represent. Either using deaths or hospitalizations the blue line represents maximum capacity the system (in this case our health care system) can service at any one time. The volume under the curve is a constant. "Flattening the Curve" was a rally cry to try and keep that curve under the maximum capacity. Anything over the capacity would stress and perhaps collapse the system. Flattening the curve was an attempt to string out the volume under the curve to efficiently move through healthcare system but the volume of cases or deaths is the same under either curve. It's a dynamic system where volume is a constant...slope changes. In other words instead of 800,000 deaths all at once (an extreme case and a number I question) you got 800,000 deaths strung out over 2 years...the healthcare system did not collapse.
Infections or deaths the chart would look the same. It?s an event bell curve. The mean will move left or right, up and down and any event won?t produce a perfect bell shape but the point of this visual aid was to keep that curve below the blue line. The volume under each curve was an assumed constant. By the way I never call anyone here vile names.
No, death count would not be the same. Again, that's because you misunderstand flattening the curve.
No they don?t. Vaccines, availability of resources, demographics and treatments are all variables that change the relationship of death count to case count.
Sorry, you are simply wrong here and I don?t know how else to explain this. Are you sure you understand math and logic?
Are you sure you are concerned about the US. Our health care system is turning like those in third world countries. (takes hours to see a doctor/get admitted into the hospitals)
Why because of the unvaccinated? For example, People are waiting in ambulances waiting to get admitted or not enough room or staff to see patients.
This was a thoughtful post and I mostly agree.
I've been trying to wrap my head around why people are extreme in their anti-vax sentiments and I think it comes down to a very powerful psychology:
1) This group never believed COVID was a serious threat to begin with.
2) Eventually, many of them caught the virus due to not taking precautions in the pre-vaccine era of the pandemic.
3) Some had severe outcomes or knew others that had severe outcomes.
4) Key point: Nobody likes to be proven wrong. Admitting you are wrong is one of the hardest things for humans to do (just look at IHO).
5) So instead of learning the lesson that this virus is actually real and a serious thing, they doubled down on the disbelief. Now instead of disbelieving in the seriousness of the virus (which they can no longer defend), they have transferred that disbelief into vaccine hesitancy. We've all heard the excuses: rushed clinical trials, unknown side effects, unknown ingredients, Big Pharma profit motive, government wants control, etc.
6) Rather than face the humiliation of admitting they were duped, vaccine skeptics get to feel like they are apart of some "insider knowledge" that average sheeple (especially liberals and Democrats) don't get. There are entire facebook communities, politicians virtue signaling, and conspiracy sites devoted to this "in" group now. They have found common cause and get to feel like they are fighting a righteous battle of good vs. evil.
Over the holidays, I got to study my wife's extended family (aunts, uncles, cousins) who are heavily anti-vaxxer and these are the conclusions I've drawn from that. It's especially disappointing to see my wife's parents caught up in it, because a year ago my FIL was in the hospital with Covid and feeling like he was going to die. He has a slow-progressing form of cancer and his immune system is already under stress, so he very well could have died. My wife and I had to step in and take control of his medical care because he was sitting at home popping hydroxychloroquine pills provided by other relatives believing that this was a miracle cure, when by that stage he should have been in the hospital.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
morekaos said:
You must have spoken to qwerty.
This is not how it works. Now I really think you have long Covid dementia.
Try to think about it in terms of supply chain... maybe that will fix your math.
sleepy5136
Well-known member
Looks like "Flurona" is here:https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-county-detects-1st-flurona-case/
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Think about the blue line as the number of ICU beds, ventilators and staff (ie medical resources).
Anything over the blue line is at a higher chance of death... additionally... deaths from other non-Covid ailments... because like the supply chain, there is only a limited amount of resources you can use to reduce the volume.
Redistributing the "volume" does not address the resource issue which can result in a higher death count from both Covid and non-Covid illnesses. You can't tell someone who needs ventilator now... to come back on 3 months.
I don't know how much more simpler I can explain this.
Anything over the blue line is at a higher chance of death... additionally... deaths from other non-Covid ailments... because like the supply chain, there is only a limited amount of resources you can use to reduce the volume.
Redistributing the "volume" does not address the resource issue which can result in a higher death count from both Covid and non-Covid illnesses. You can't tell someone who needs ventilator now... to come back on 3 months.
I don't know how much more simpler I can explain this.
morekaos
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Simple explanation but not what those graphs represent. Either using deaths or hospitalizations the blue line represents maximum capacity the system (in this case our health care system) can service at any one time. The volume under the curve is a constant. "Flattening the Curve" was a rally cry to try and keep that curve under the maximum capacity. Anything over the capacity would stress and perhaps collapse the system. Flattening the curve was an attempt to string out the volume under the curve to efficiently move through healthcare system but the volume of cases or deaths is the same under either curve. It's a dynamic system where volume is a constant...slope changes. In other words instead of 800,000 deaths all at once (an extreme case and a number I question) you got 800,000 deaths strung out over 2 years...the healthcare system did not collapse.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
No. The volume of deaths would not be the same... if there are no resources to take care of people... death % over the curve would be much higher.
Your chart is case count... not death count... that is the flaw in your thinking.
Your chart is case count... not death count... that is the flaw in your thinking.
This thread is 364 pages (and counting) and contains many examples of misunderstandings, vitriol postings, name calling, and suspect sources - all of which decreases the posters street cred, but unfortunately reflects poorly on how the US is devolving. No post has changed any minds as many are locked into their position and ignore anyone who doesn't agree. Is having an open mind or acting in a civil manner extinct? Wonder why anyone would waste their time trying to support their belief system or question others - seems like a royal waste of time and accomplishes little.
Just some questions to ponder
For anti-vaxxers:
How many who catch the virus and wind up with some serious side effects would head to the hospital for treatment or would they stick with their principles and stay at home? If the same occurred to one of their close family members, would they make the same choice?
How many who wind up in the ICU have said "I'm glad I didn't get vaccinated". If the same occurred to one of their close family members, would they proudly say "I'm glad they followed my advise to not get vaccinated".
For those who are anti-mandate but are not anti-vaxxers:
How many have the primary reason "I just don't want to be told to do anything by the government". I actually know many who would have gotten the vaccine if it weren't mandated because they want to stand up to the man!!
How many have the primary reason "I'm scared of needles and watching all those getting "jabbed" on TV makes me squeamish". This number is much higher than many think and they will use any theory to fight mandates to hide their Trypanophobia.
For natural immunity lovers:
How many truly ran a risk-reward analysis and decided that their probability of death (or hospitalization) was less if they caught Covid rather than getting a vaccine?
How many would feel bad about achieving natural immunity, but in the process infecting a close family member who didn't? Would this number be the same for infecting someone they didn't know?
What inspired me to post? A dear friend of mind works at a local ICU and every day for the past week she has come home and cried herself to sleep. She has the biggest heart and is one of the strongest persons I know. It saddens me that she has almost given up hope. This thread symbolizes her struggles in understanding.
Just some questions to ponder
For anti-vaxxers:
How many who catch the virus and wind up with some serious side effects would head to the hospital for treatment or would they stick with their principles and stay at home? If the same occurred to one of their close family members, would they make the same choice?
How many who wind up in the ICU have said "I'm glad I didn't get vaccinated". If the same occurred to one of their close family members, would they proudly say "I'm glad they followed my advise to not get vaccinated".
For those who are anti-mandate but are not anti-vaxxers:
How many have the primary reason "I just don't want to be told to do anything by the government". I actually know many who would have gotten the vaccine if it weren't mandated because they want to stand up to the man!!
How many have the primary reason "I'm scared of needles and watching all those getting "jabbed" on TV makes me squeamish". This number is much higher than many think and they will use any theory to fight mandates to hide their Trypanophobia.
For natural immunity lovers:
How many truly ran a risk-reward analysis and decided that their probability of death (or hospitalization) was less if they caught Covid rather than getting a vaccine?
How many would feel bad about achieving natural immunity, but in the process infecting a close family member who didn't? Would this number be the same for infecting someone they didn't know?
What inspired me to post? A dear friend of mind works at a local ICU and every day for the past week she has come home and cried herself to sleep. She has the biggest heart and is one of the strongest persons I know. It saddens me that she has almost given up hope. This thread symbolizes her struggles in understanding.
morekaos
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Infections or deaths the chart would look the same. It?s an event bell curve. The mean will move left or right, up and down and any event won?t produce a perfect bell shape but the point of this visual aid was to keep that curve below the blue line. The volume under each curve was an assumed constant. By the way I never call anyone here vile names.
morekaos
Well-known member
This is worth posting again. Just ask Whoopi Goldberg, or the scores and scores of people I know right now who got this. masked, unmasked, vaxed triple vaxed, and unvaxed it doesn?t matter. As I said at the beginning of this, we are all going to get this or we?ve already had it, nothing you are doing is going to stop that. We are all under the curve now..
Thousands who ?followed the rules? are about to get covid.
For two years now, Aline, a 30-something graduate student in Ohio, has diligently ? desperately, even ? protected herself against the coronavirus. Vaccinated and boosted, she took a test last week ahead of holiday travel to Atlanta. She was stunned when it came back positive.
Aline, who requested to be identified by her first name only for privacy reasons, is still puzzling over how she got the virus ? was it because she wore a cloth mask rather than a medical-grade one? ? and worries that the cough she has now could worsen because she has diabetes. That?s not the most painful part of the ordeal, though: ?I feel very embarrassed and dumb,? she says, and upset that she?s causing her family stress. ?It?s eye-opening that I feel so much shame from it. I?m realizing how much judgment I was secretly harboring against people who got it before.?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2021/12/22/dont-feel-ashamed-for-getting-covid/
Thousands who ?followed the rules? are about to get covid.
For two years now, Aline, a 30-something graduate student in Ohio, has diligently ? desperately, even ? protected herself against the coronavirus. Vaccinated and boosted, she took a test last week ahead of holiday travel to Atlanta. She was stunned when it came back positive.
Aline, who requested to be identified by her first name only for privacy reasons, is still puzzling over how she got the virus ? was it because she wore a cloth mask rather than a medical-grade one? ? and worries that the cough she has now could worsen because she has diabetes. That?s not the most painful part of the ordeal, though: ?I feel very embarrassed and dumb,? she says, and upset that she?s causing her family stress. ?It?s eye-opening that I feel so much shame from it. I?m realizing how much judgment I was secretly harboring against people who got it before.?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2021/12/22/dont-feel-ashamed-for-getting-covid/
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
morekaos said:
No, death count would not be the same. Again, that's because you misunderstand flattening the curve.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
morekaos said:
No they don?t. Vaccines, availability of resources, demographics and treatments are all variables that change the relationship of death count to case count.
Sorry, you are simply wrong here and I don?t know how else to explain this. Are you sure you understand math and logic?
morekaos
Well-known member
Attachments
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
That's because in the US, we haven't gone that far above the line.
If you check other countries where they far exceeded the medical resources availability, there are higher death rates.
C'mon... this is a very easy concept to understand.
If you check other countries where they far exceeded the medical resources availability, there are higher death rates.
C'mon... this is a very easy concept to understand.
morekaos said:
Are you sure you are concerned about the US. Our health care system is turning like those in third world countries. (takes hours to see a doctor/get admitted into the hospitals)
Why because of the unvaccinated? For example, People are waiting in ambulances waiting to get admitted or not enough room or staff to see patients.
morekaos
Well-known member
Because the lemmings are being driven into emergency rooms because they are panicked and have the sniffles, many are vaxed. Additionally, they are counting the people "with covid" as there "because of covid" Very different and double counts unnecessarily. Even Saint Faucci admits that...
Fauci Finally Admits COVID Data Is Garbage
?But the other important thing is that if you look at the children who are hospitalized, many of them are hospitalized with Covid as opposed to because of Covid,? Fauci continued, emphasis added. ?And what we mean by that ? if a child goes in the hospital, they automatically get tested for Covid. And they get counted as a Covid-hospitalized individual. When in fact, they may go in for a broken leg or appendicitis or something like that. So, it?s over-counting the number of children who are, quote, ?hospitalized with Covid,? as opposed to because of Covid.?
https://townhall.com/columnists/kat...finally-admits-covid-data-is-garbage-n2601272
Hospitalizations rising among fully vaccinated in U.S., Fauci says
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reported a decline in vaccine effectiveness among the elderly and residents of long-term care facilities, many of whom were the first to be eligible to be vaccinated last winter.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ising-fully-vaccinated-us-fauci-says-rcna5907
https://youtu.be/FNkpIDBtC2c
Fauci Finally Admits COVID Data Is Garbage
?But the other important thing is that if you look at the children who are hospitalized, many of them are hospitalized with Covid as opposed to because of Covid,? Fauci continued, emphasis added. ?And what we mean by that ? if a child goes in the hospital, they automatically get tested for Covid. And they get counted as a Covid-hospitalized individual. When in fact, they may go in for a broken leg or appendicitis or something like that. So, it?s over-counting the number of children who are, quote, ?hospitalized with Covid,? as opposed to because of Covid.?
https://townhall.com/columnists/kat...finally-admits-covid-data-is-garbage-n2601272
Hospitalizations rising among fully vaccinated in U.S., Fauci says
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reported a decline in vaccine effectiveness among the elderly and residents of long-term care facilities, many of whom were the first to be eligible to be vaccinated last winter.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ising-fully-vaccinated-us-fauci-says-rcna5907
https://youtu.be/FNkpIDBtC2c
Liar Loan
Well-known member
DrTravel said:
This was a thoughtful post and I mostly agree.
I've been trying to wrap my head around why people are extreme in their anti-vax sentiments and I think it comes down to a very powerful psychology:
1) This group never believed COVID was a serious threat to begin with.
2) Eventually, many of them caught the virus due to not taking precautions in the pre-vaccine era of the pandemic.
3) Some had severe outcomes or knew others that had severe outcomes.
4) Key point: Nobody likes to be proven wrong. Admitting you are wrong is one of the hardest things for humans to do (just look at IHO).
5) So instead of learning the lesson that this virus is actually real and a serious thing, they doubled down on the disbelief. Now instead of disbelieving in the seriousness of the virus (which they can no longer defend), they have transferred that disbelief into vaccine hesitancy. We've all heard the excuses: rushed clinical trials, unknown side effects, unknown ingredients, Big Pharma profit motive, government wants control, etc.
6) Rather than face the humiliation of admitting they were duped, vaccine skeptics get to feel like they are apart of some "insider knowledge" that average sheeple (especially liberals and Democrats) don't get. There are entire facebook communities, politicians virtue signaling, and conspiracy sites devoted to this "in" group now. They have found common cause and get to feel like they are fighting a righteous battle of good vs. evil.
Over the holidays, I got to study my wife's extended family (aunts, uncles, cousins) who are heavily anti-vaxxer and these are the conclusions I've drawn from that. It's especially disappointing to see my wife's parents caught up in it, because a year ago my FIL was in the hospital with Covid and feeling like he was going to die. He has a slow-progressing form of cancer and his immune system is already under stress, so he very well could have died. My wife and I had to step in and take control of his medical care because he was sitting at home popping hydroxychloroquine pills provided by other relatives believing that this was a miracle cure, when by that stage he should have been in the hospital.
CogNeuroSci
Active member
Liar Loan, thank you for your thoughtful way to say those people are in certain contexts dumb!