Bear Stearns

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>ll - Given the actual dollar amount of over the counter derivatives compared to the underlying assets, it is apparent that derivatives are written against the base assets in multiples. For example, if a muni loses value by 5% and there are 20 derivatives written with that asset's credit as their payout factor, the resulting payout would be much greater than the 5% loss in muni value and maybe even much greater than the entire face value of the muni.</p>

<p><em>"Surely it is clear right not the counterparty can't pay?"</em></p>

<p>Nothing is completely clear right now because no one knows completely who owes what to whom. And many do not want to find out. If you were JPM right now, would you want to know that assets, (CDSs), that you have valued on your books for $1T are actually only worth $1B? What good is it if somone owes you $100 if they can not pay you? Maybe better to show that $100 debt on your books as a $100 owed so your shareholders do not know you are actually insolvent. And what if you loaned out $1000 based on that $100 asset? Oh, you say that could not happen? Banks can not leverage like that?</p>
 
<p>It was Joe Lewis who forced JPM’s hand. Dimon said last week that JPM had no intention of raising their bid. Lewis is determined to fight them. Even at $10 JPM stole this company and everyone on Wall St. knows it. Look at how much the JPM share price has risen over the past week. </p>
 
<p>Has anybody seen this little nugget? Its seems the Govt. is giving JPMorgan/Chase a little payola to buy out B/S (<--- sounds about right!).</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Does this have any valadity?</p>

<p> </p>

<p><a href="http://market-ticker.denninger.net/">http://market-ticker.denninger.net/</a></p>

<p> </p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
<p>Well, I'd want to know, if not to share the info, if only to have some money salted away, and a nice safe haven in an extradition proof locale. But these guys never do that, do they? I think because they are lying to themselves too, in that they don't think they did anything wrong, so why should they need a haven?</p>
 
Anybody wanna guess where JPM got the money to buy BSC for $10 per share?<p>

Yup, that's right; the federal reserve discount window.
 
<p><img style="FILTER: progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Fade()" height="360" alt="" width="488" border="0" name="SLIDESIMG" src="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iFgZFZIAbqYo" /></p>

<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akGvUo2phD9Y&refer=home">Protesters Enter Bear Stearns Lobby, Demand Meeting With Dimon</a>


</p>

<p>March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos.' New York headquarters was entered by about 200 people protesting the U.S. government's role in the securities firm's sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co. </p>

<p>Demonstrators from the Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America streamed into the midtown Manhattan building's lobby through a rear entrance after security guards tried to keep them from using revolving doors. The group demanded to meet with JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, chanting ``We want Dimon.'' They left voluntarily after about a half-hour. </p>
 
Ya know... that dude looks a lot like Nude, yes, he does wear more than just a sock. Well, at least that I know of, and ever want to know of.
 
<p>JPMorgan Chase quintuples its bid for its battered rival. Now for the hard part</p>

<p>http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10926298</p>
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1205872570]Today was another bear rally (pun intended.) Bear rallies are often very steep one-day rises in a strong downtrend.</blockquote>


Hey IR, do you still believe what you did about the market a month ago? It seems the trend has been strongly upward since the Dow triple test down at around 11,700. Now we are bumping up against the 12,800 top side resistance level. Morekaos was dead on back then...
 
I agree ipop, I'm thinking now is the time to get into the market.



the time to get in is when everyone else thinks it's going down which is now. there's no reason why the market will drop even if the country goes into recession. companies will downsize to maintain earnings. where else will you put your money?
 
Look at the 2yr UST and Fed Funds.... looks like the rate cut party might be over or only 25 bps left. BTW...we're going to have a yield curve again lol
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208558971][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1205872570]Today was another bear rally (pun intended.) Bear rallies are often very steep one-day rises in a strong downtrend.</blockquote>


Hey IR, do you still believe what you did about the market a month ago? It seems the trend has been strongly upward since the Dow triple test down at around 11,700. Now we are bumping up against the 12,800 top side resistance level. Morekaos was dead on back then...</blockquote>


The market just broke through major resistance levels today. Sometimes sellers wait for this signal to enter the market, so the action over the next week will be critical. Right now, I would say the market is going to rise for the medium term (4-6 weeks.)



There have been two other selloffs since March 18th when I talked about the one-day bear rally. It has not been a steadily climbing bull market. In fact, 3 days ago, it was below the levels of March 18.



The next major resistance level is the 200 day simple moving average. It will likely bounce off this resistance level and provide a good buying opportunity. I still expect a great deal of volatility as the market will be digesting earnings announcements over the next few weeks.
 
The peak of the earnings season is coming up next week and toss in the fact that the S&P;formed something of an inverse head & shoulders pattern (bullish).....the market could run another 50-100 S&P;pts if it can crack the 1400 resistance level.



So 1400 first...then consolidate and challenge the 200 dma which is about 1440.



Looks like support is now the 50 dma at 1340.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1208574997][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208558971][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1205872570]Today was another bear rally (pun intended.) Bear rallies are often very steep one-day rises in a strong downtrend.</blockquote>


Hey IR, do you still believe what you did about the market a month ago? It seems the trend has been strongly upward since the Dow triple test down at around 11,700. Now we are bumping up against the 12,800 top side resistance level. Morekaos was dead on back then...</blockquote>


The market just broke through major resistance levels today. Sometimes sellers wait for this signal to enter the market, so the action over the next week will be critical. Right now, I would say the market is going to rise for the medium term (4-6 weeks.)



There have been two other selloffs since March 18th when I talked about the one-day bear rally. It has not been a steadily climbing bull market. In fact, 3 days ago, it was below the levels of March 18.



The next major resistance level is the 200 day simple moving average. It will likely bounce off this resistance level and provide a good buying opportunity. I still expect a great deal of volatility as the market will be digesting earnings announcements over the next few weeks.</blockquote>


So you still believe we have another leg down to go from the 11,600-11,800 mark? Seems like you may have changed your mind...



The volatility has been high but it looks like higher highs and lower lows since mid March. I started moving out of bonds in late March but not yet back into equities with any conviction. Was curious how other traders were playing it...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208575671][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1208574997][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208558971][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1205872570]Today was another bear rally (pun intended.) Bear rallies are often very steep one-day rises in a strong downtrend.</blockquote>


Hey IR, do you still believe what you did about the market a month ago? It seems the trend has been strongly upward since the Dow triple test down at around 11,700. Now we are bumping up against the 12,800 top side resistance level. Morekaos was dead on back then...</blockquote>


The market just broke through major resistance levels today. Sometimes sellers wait for this signal to enter the market, so the action over the next week will be critical. Right now, I would say the market is going to rise for the medium term (4-6 weeks.)



There have been two other selloffs since March 18th when I talked about the one-day bear rally. It has not been a steadily climbing bull market. In fact, 3 days ago, it was below the levels of March 18.



The next major resistance level is the 200 day simple moving average. It will likely bounce off this resistance level and provide a good buying opportunity. I still expect a great deal of volatility as the market will be digesting earnings announcements over the next few weeks.</blockquote>


So you still believe we have another leg down to go from the 11,600-11,800 mark? Seems like you may have changed your mind...



The volatility has been high but it looks like higher highs and lower lows since mid March. I started moving out of bonds in late March but not yet back into equities with any conviction. Was curious how other traders were playing it...</blockquote>


With equities, anything is possible, but right now, I don't think we will see a retest of earlier lows. Markets usually bottom at the end of the interest rate lowering cycle, and I question whether or not we are there yet. This recession is probably going to be nastier than the market is anticipating, but for the medium term, I think traders will take the market higher in the believe that a mild recession is already priced in. If the economy continues to soften, which I think is likely, the market may price in a deeper and longer recession which would create new lows. Based on what I am seeing today, such a scenario would take until this fall to play out. The market will likely rise for a while, check which way the wind blows, then make its next move. If the economic winds start pointing to a longer and deeper recession, the market will move lower. If economic conditions look like they are improving, the market will move higher.



It would be interesting to see how much foreign money is flowing in to the market. Relative to the Euro, our market must look very cheap.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1205887296]I have made a long and profitable carear by being contrarian. When 75% of the public says we are in a recession and the market is not the place to be I hold my nose and pull the trigger. in 30 years of trading it has never failed that the public are always wrong.</blockquote>


Worth a re-visit.



Now, where did I put that recession? Oh yah, In the real estate and financial sectors.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGtAszTIwDAE&refer=home
 
the mkt seems to be reacting as the recession scenario is unlikely especially in the real estate sector. the MSCI REIT index is up 7.8% YTD, most of that in this current Q.
 
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