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[quote author="awgee" date=1218839824][quote author="morekaos" date=1218838568][quote author="morekaos" date=1216765232]So far the double down looks good. Oil broke 50 day moving average and if it can't hold next stop may be the 200 DMA at 104. We shall see. I think things are not going well on the China/India consumption side. May take till after the Olympics but I think China will admit it soon enough and the bottom may fall out of Oil. If you think things are bad here with a a -14.5% loss on the S&P;take a close look at the China markets down 43.5% year to date. Can you imagine if the Dow was down that much this year...They would be YELLING DEPRESSION!!! Something smells like rotting Mooshoo here.</blockquote>


Oil, gold, wheat, whatever, the CRB is breaking down. Look at the China market down 53.42% year to date. Europe and Japan reported their first negative GDP quarter and the begining of their recessions. They will lower rates as we raise them. Long dollar bet looking better every day. Go long this market we will rally though the end of the year.</blockquote>


It seems you are doing quite well.</blockquote>


If oil cannot hold 104 (and I don't think it will) $80.00 is in the cards. Hold your shorts open for now.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1220389698][quote author="awgee" date=1218839824][quote author="morekaos" date=1218838568][quote author="morekaos" date=1216765232]So far the double down looks good. Oil broke 50 day moving average and if it can't hold next stop may be the 200 DMA at 104. We shall see. I think things are not going well on the China/India consumption side. May take till after the Olympics but I think China will admit it soon enough and the bottom may fall out of Oil. If you think things are bad here with a a -14.5% loss on the S&P;take a close look at the China markets down 43.5% year to date. Can you imagine if the Dow was down that much this year...They would be YELLING DEPRESSION!!! Something smells like rotting Mooshoo here.</blockquote>


Oil, gold, wheat, whatever, the CRB is breaking down. Look at the China market down 53.42% year to date. Europe and Japan reported their first negative GDP quarter and the begining of their recessions. They will lower rates as we raise them. Long dollar bet looking better every day. Go long this market we will rally though the end of the year.</blockquote>


It seems you are doing quite well.</blockquote>


If oil cannot hold 104 (and I don't think it will) $80.00 is in the cards. Hold your shorts open for now.</blockquote>


More - Ya don't think maybe you should take some profit?
 
Maybe you take out your principal and wait out a spike to re-establish positions with the next set of storms. I think the jigg is up on the demand side and 80 is not unreasonable before the end of the year.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1220391869]Maybe you take out your principal and wait out a spike to re-establish positions with the next set of storms. I think the jigg is up on the demand side and 80 is not unreasonable before the end of the year.</blockquote>


Is the "you" you are speaking of, figurative? I am not short oil. I would dare to short oil. I do not understand the oil market and make it a rule to not trade markets I do not understand. There is speculation that the Saudis will start decreasing supply at 100.
 
"There is speculation that the Saudis will start decreasing supply at 100." I don thin so awgee oil is down another 3 bucks from when this article was printed, but we will see.



Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the supplier of 40 percent of the world's oil, will probably keep producing at a record pace as $109-a-barrel crude squeezes the global economy.

The 13-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries <strong>will reject calls from Venezuela and Iran to trim supplies </strong>at its Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna, according to 29 of the 32 energy analysts surveyed"
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1213879571][quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1213847516][quote author="morekaos" date=1213823299]Give it time. Coordination of this type does not happen overnight. Look at Morgan and Goldmans earnings this morning. These companies are desperate for revenue. They will not give it up easily. By the way heard a rumor yesterday that WB was heading for BK. World and Golden West portfolios have pulled them into negative net worth. The stock sure seems to be acting like it.</blockquote>


WB is nowhere near filing for BK. You heard that from me. The lending portion of their business is not doing well to put it nicely, but they have a HUGE retail banking business accross the country, a broker/dealer in Wachovia Securities, and an investment bank. They have over $800 billion in assets inder management and $33 billion in net tangible assets. WB is a monster. The 3rd largest bank in the US behind Citi and JPM chase. They aren't going BK. They may be forced to sell off assets and possibly divisions, but a BK is not in the cards.</blockquote>


LM I do not disagree. It was just a rumor. I think theree is no way the gov would ever let a major go under. No matter what. I have stated a mid level could go like DSL or WM. Howerver, I have had a great time shorting WB, and the others for that matter.</blockquote>


LM you could be right about WM



<strong>"Time To Bail Out WaMu?"</strong>



http://seekingalpha.com/article/94874-tim-to-bail-out-wamu



But I may be wrong about Wachovia



<strong>"Is Wachovia the Worst Run Bank in America?"</strong>



http://seekingalpha.com/article/94349-is-wachovia-the-worst-run-bank-in-america
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1221172559]Ba-bye.



Washington Mutual plummets below $2 a share



http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/washingtonmutual.html?.v=1</blockquote>


I wonder if Washington Mutual Federal Savings will still pay 4.25% on my CD?!
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1221173721][quote author="morekaos" date=1221172559]Ba-bye.



Washington Mutual plummets below $2 a share



http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/washingtonmutual.html?.v=1</blockquote>


I wonder if Washington Mutual Federal Savings will still pay 4.25% on my CD?!</blockquote>


Ipo - Does the FDIC keep paying the interest after they take over, or do they just pay the interest up to the day of the takeover?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1221179353][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1221173721][quote author="morekaos" date=1221172559]Ba-bye.



Washington Mutual plummets below $2 a share



http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/washingtonmutual.html?.v=1</blockquote>


I wonder if Washington Mutual Federal Savings will still pay 4.25% on my CD?!</blockquote>


Ipo - Does the FDIC keep paying the interest after they take over, or do they just pay the interest up to the day of the takeover?</blockquote>
Awgee, in my experience, I kept getting interest just as if nothing happened. It was seemless to me.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1221179353][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1221173721][quote author="morekaos" date=1221172559]Ba-bye.



Washington Mutual plummets below $2 a share



http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/washingtonmutual.html?.v=1</blockquote>


I wonder if Washington Mutual Federal Savings will still pay 4.25% on my CD?!</blockquote>


Ipo - Does the FDIC keep paying the interest after they take over, or do they just pay the interest up to the day of the takeover?</blockquote>


Technically, FDIC insurance only covers accrued interest up until the date of the insured bank's closure. In the case of Wamu, I expect it is large enough that it would be taken over and run for some time until it was officially closed. In that case, the accrued interest would be protected via insurance as it pre-dated closure.



IndyMac Federal continues to pay interest in spite of the take-over, at very competitive rates I might add, I assume to make the bank most valuable in terms of deposit assets to potential investors, buyers, etc.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1212100143]Oil and the commodity complex is the next to collapse. Gold down 20 and oil is trying to hold 130 but it will fail</blockquote>


Looks like the short side of any market is the only place to be. Oil and Gold will go even lower now. Little support left. Watchout Goldman and Morgan!!!
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1221513254][quote author="morekaos" date=1212100143]Oil and the commodity complex is the next to collapse. Gold down 20 and oil is trying to hold 130 but it will fail</blockquote>


Looks like the short side of any market is the only place to be. Oil and Gold will go even lower now. Little support left. Watchout Goldman and Morgan!!!</blockquote>


I have never seen asset repricing on the scale we are seeing now. The mass deleveraging is causing the fire sales of just about everything. This is a great time to be in cash as your dollars buy more and more asset value every day. Asset deflation is at hand. Now if we could just get some consumer price relief...
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1221525831][quote author="morekaos" date=1221513254][quote author="morekaos" date=1212100143]Oil and the commodity complex is the next to collapse. Gold down 20 and oil is trying to hold 130 but it will fail</blockquote>


Looks like the short side of any market is the only place to be. Oil and Gold will go even lower now. Little support left. Watchout Goldman and Morgan!!!</blockquote>


I have never seen asset repricing on the scale we are seeing now. The mass deleveraging is causing the fire sales of just about everything. This is a great time to be in cash as your dollars buy more and more asset value every day. Asset deflation is at hand. Now if we could just get some consumer price relief...</blockquote>


Wait till you see what housing prices do next.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1221536498][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1221525831][quote author="morekaos" date=1221513254][quote author="morekaos" date=1212100143]Oil and the commodity complex is the next to collapse. Gold down 20 and oil is trying to hold 130 but it will fail</blockquote>


Looks like the short side of any market is the only place to be. Oil and Gold will go even lower now. Little support left. Watchout Goldman and Morgan!!!</blockquote>


I have never seen asset repricing on the scale we are seeing now. The mass deleveraging is causing the fire sales of just about everything. This is a great time to be in cash as your dollars buy more and more asset value every day. Asset deflation is at hand. Now if we could just get some consumer price relief...</blockquote>


Wait till you see what housing prices do next.</blockquote>


I already bought more popcorn and re-stocked on coke. I can't wait for the next fight, but this time I want to see more blood and hopefully a TKO!



Fight starts early next year for those interested in watching.



Your Fighters include: The Housing Market vs. ARM Loans ( I have my money on ARMs for an early knockout...round 2 or 3)
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1213652368]Absolutly, They are gonna put the breaks on thes spec buyers, Goldman and Morgan in particular. It seems odd that these are the two firms who just happen to be saying oil will go over 170 soon. Can you say conflict of interest? It will not be pretty



http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Oil_Speculation/oil_speculation.HTM

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4124552.ece?print=yes&randnum=1213377884240</blockquote>


And then there were 2. Soon there may be none...



It took too long for Wall Street leaders to accept reality.

In the spring, a number of chief executives were still lining up to reassure

investors that the worst of the credit crunch was over. Months later, two more

independent firms, Lehman Brothers Holdings and Merrill Lynch, are vanishing.

The former filed for bankruptcy, the latter agreed to be sold to Bank of

America to head off such a fate.

After including the sale of Bear Stearns to J.P. Morgan Chase, <strong>only Goldman

Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley will remain of the big independent Wall Street

brokers.</strong> What is their future?

They are the biggest and strongest. Goldman, in particular, has made the right

bets and managed risk pretty well during the crisis. One argument goes that if

Goldman and Morgan Stanley can get through the storm intact, there will be

healthy returns on offer, given reduced competition.

That might be true in their bread-and-butter investment-banking businesses or

in the execution of trades for clients. But the freewheeling days of using huge

leverage to make risky bets are over, as the Fed will keep them on a tighter

leash.

The firms live or die by market confidence, given their reliance on wholesale

funding, and that has clearly evaporated for the smaller firms
 
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