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[quote author="morekaos" date=1212097304][quote author="morekaos" date=1205887296]I have made a long and profitable carear by being contrarian. When 75% of the public says we are in a recession and the market is not the place to be I hold my nose and pull the trigger. in 30 years of trading it has never failed that the public are always wrong.</blockquote>


Worth a re-visit.



Now, where did I put that recession? Oh yah, In the real estate and financial sectors.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGtAszTIwDAE&refer=home</blockquote>


So, you are long equities? Which? Are you buying now?


How would you compare your long and profitable contrarian career to ... let's say, Richard Russell?
 
Actually trading quite a bit . Bought some closed ends in march and sold them when the dow was hovering around 13000. Been goin long the dollar UUP short gold and oil SMN and DUG. also long Nuke NLR. That is if I were giving advice to clients...which I am NOT here.
 
Wachovia, going, going.........



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVqxDj07nQSk&refer=home





'Wachovia slid to the lowest level since 1995 after saying Kennedy Thompson will step down, reigniting concern that subprime losses will deepen."
 
Been a while since I been on here but here's how I been seeing/playing it...



I debated getting some DUG but I don't trust my guesswork right now and there is so much money into Oil that I would be hesitant on either side of the trade. I never got anything in Energy stocks and am kinda kicking myself but I don't feel good about buying any immediately. A guy at work who has been dead on with Gold says the next best place to be will be the small miners. Big companies have been doing well and will start looking to aquire the best small guys to keep their positions up.



Like the SKF, I have a chunk of SRS that I am now down about 8% on. I have really high hopes for it though once reality sets back in here. It would be great for it to hit 140 again as this last slide has been pretty painful. Shorting DSL and FED has proven to be a wonderful bet (100%+ on a few options) though I am really hoping FED catches up to the DSL freefall... Timberrrrrrr.....



I have some small puts on WFC and ZION as well. I lived in Salt Lake City for 5 years and they are behind the curve. When I lived in Florida, everyone said "Real estate will never go down here!". Then I moved to California and everyone said "Real Estate will never go down here!". When I talk to my friends in Salt Lake City now...guess what they all say? Lower Salaries, six kids, 10% to the church....could mean trouble. Their books didn't have a huge amount of mortgage exposure like the Cali Banks when I looked a few months back but Salt Lake is definately due for a correction.
 
me too on both SKF and SRS... its a nice hedge since most people have their retirement portfolios all in longs. just waiting for the next shoe to drop...
 
And then Wachovia joined an elite club



"Wachovia's Thompson Joins Prince, O'Neal Toppled by Subprime"



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aHpjzcyqgtUQ&refer=home
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1212102173]Been goin long the dollar UUP short gold and oil SMN and DUG. also long Nuke NLR.</blockquote>


Ouch.
 
Good day to be short yesterday, except for FED... WTF? Its probably one of the worst stocks out there and was actually up for the day. THere was talk on yahoo finance about manipulation to keep it above 15 for options this months which I could understand. I need to do some more research on this Max Pain thing I have heard referred to with options expiring. I been doing very well with options lately but admit a good deal has been luck on dropping stocks, not proper understanding of options.



Anyone have any other good shorts in other industries working now? I have been thinking of who else gets hurt in times like these and wanted to look into container shipping companies (those not tied to oil). Higher fuel costs and dropping imports cant be good for business. With trucking getting really expensive, I also wanted to start looking into suppliers of new trucks and parts to the trucking industry. I already have some Jan09 $25 puts on Monster.com which are about even after being up, then down, then back up again.



Cheers!
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1212833755]Went short more today. This is trader driven. Short fear, it never lasts. Also check out WB short...looking gooood</blockquote>


You gonna double down again?
 
Absolutly, They are gonna put the breaks on thes spec buyers, Goldman and Morgan in particular. It seems odd that these are the two firms who just happen to be saying oil will go over 170 soon. Can you say conflict of interest? It will not be pretty



http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Oil_Speculation/oil_speculation.HTM

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4124552.ece?print=yes&randnum=1213377884240
 
feeding frenzy

"Oil Rally Topped Dot-Com Craze in Speculators' Mania"



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9wRqtCtGjZY&refer=patrick.net#
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1213652368]Absolutly, They are gonna put the breaks on thes spec buyers, Goldman and Morgan in particular. It seems odd that these are the two firms who just happen to be saying oil will go over 170 soon. Can you say conflict of interest? It will not be pretty



http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Oil_Speculation/oil_speculation.HTM

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4124552.ece?print=yes&randnum=1213377884240</blockquote>


It may be interesting to check and see who the biggest shareholders of The Federal Reserve are?
 
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