Baker Ranch in Lake Forest / Foothill Ranch

[eclipxe]

If all someone cares about is flipping a house, then the jail might or might not matter.  Nobody knows what the market will do or how potential buyers will react to the pros and cons of a location.  People like to generalize based on their own personal bias, so everything written here needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  It's the way the interwebz works, ppl like to pretend to be right 100% of the time.

I don't play the real estate game.  To be frank, I really don't care what a FCB will or will not like.  I also don't really know what will happen to a neighborhood in the future and neither does anyone else.

For me, a home is a place to plant roots and raise a family.  If a location, floor plan, neighborhood, etc makes sense for you, then it's a great place to buy despite all the Debbie downers. 

Eclipxe, congrats on your new home.  I'm sure you'll fill it with lasting memories and great times.

I agree with to a certain extent but the problem is that BR is priced at a range where people rather have location then lot size or "design." 

If I am I going to buy a house at $850K to $1 million, location is my primary concerns because I am worried about whether values will stay up.  If you look at the sales for BR, the "lower" end stuff are selling well but the higher end stuff are not.  People figure that they might as well be in Irvine if they are going to pay that level of pricing.

This also relates to the issue of school districts.  SVUSD is just not nearly the draw that IUSD is.

What is in Irvine, new, starting at 800k, 2000sqft, no mello roos, non motor court, and backyard?

 

[OpenSky]

 

[Irvinecommuter]

If all someone cares about is flipping a house, then the jail might or might not matter.  Nobody knows what the market will do or how potential buyers will react to the pros and cons of a location.  People like to generalize based on their own personal bias, so everything written here needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  It's the way the interwebz works, ppl like to pretend to be right 100% of the time.

I don't play the real estate game.  To be frank, I really don't care what a FCB will or will not like.  I also don't really know what will happen to a neighborhood in the future and neither does anyone else.

For me, a home is a place to plant roots and raise a family.  If a location, floor plan, neighborhood, etc makes sense for you, then it's a great place to buy despite all the Debbie downers. 

Eclipxe, congrats on your new home.  I'm sure you'll fill it with lasting memories and great times.

I agree with to a certain extent but the problem is that BR is priced at a range where people rather have location then lot size or "design." 

If I am I going to buy a house at $850K to $1 million, location is my primary concerns because I am worried about whether values will stay up.  If you look at the sales for BR, the "lower" end stuff are selling well but the higher end stuff are not.  People figure that they might as well be in Irvine if they are going to pay that level of pricing.

This also relates to the issue of school districts.  SVUSD is just not nearly the draw that IUSD is.

What is in Irvine, new, starting at 800k, 2000sqft, no mello roos, non motor court, and backyard?

Nothing...but a lot of people rather pay the mello roos and get a motor court with no backyard for $800K than the alternative at BR.  I know I did and looking at the sales figures...so did a lot of others.

This is not a reflection on your choice to buy at BR...I'm just talking about macro view of the situation.

I said it before, BR is probably priced about $50-100K too high to be competitive with Irvine...the stuff on the high end is definitely too expensive.

 

[eclipxe]

I don't take it personally, I don't care much about what the future appreciation holds in the property. If it goes up, it goes up. If it goes down it goes down. No biggie, it's just money - more will be made and more will be lost.

But, I think we're arguing different things here. I don't think BR is competitive with Irvine, I think it is 'close-enough' for many families that want an Irvine-based lifestyle but don't have the same requirements for IUSD/etc. I've already established that Irvine is special and buyers in Irvine are willing to make a different set of tradeoffs than buyers at BR. I think we're all clear on that.

The interesting question is how BR compares to other Irvine alternatives. If you remove the FCBs out of the equation, how does BR compare to MV, RSM, LR, AV, LN, RMV, FR, etc.

It is slightly more expensive than Foothill Ranch and about on-par with AV. Significantly more expensive than MV, Ladera, RMV etc. I think BR is competing for the same buyer pool as other South OC cities, rather than that of Irvine. The difference is that BR/LF, FR, and maybe AV are about the only South OC communities that allow for an "Irvine-based" lifestyle (a reasonable drive without traffic to major jobs, restaurants, shops, and entertainment based in Irvine). It feels like further than BR/LF/FR/AV it becomes a hassle to go into Irvine regularly. But that's probably just my biased opinion.  8)

 

[Meggie]

Nothing...but a lot of people rather pay the mello roos and get a motor court with no backyard for $800K than the alternative at BR.  I know I did and looking at the sales figures...so did a lot of others.

This is not a reflection on your choice to buy at BR...I'm just talking about macro view of the situation.

People who wants to pay MR to get a motor court with no backyard for $800K can buy in Irvine, and others who don't want to pay it can buy in BR (or other communities).  When it comes to resale, the same type of people will buy in Irvine and the same type of people will buy elsewhere.  Just depend on what you value in life. 

 

[OpenSky]

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I don't take it personally, I don't care much about what the future appreciation holds in the property. If it goes up, it goes up. If it goes down it goes down. No biggie, it's just money - more will be made and more will be lost.

But, I think we're arguing different things here. I don't think BR is competitive with Irvine, I think it is 'close-enough' for many families that want an Irvine-based lifestyle but don't have the same requirements for IUSD/etc. I've already established that Irvine is special and buyers in Irvine are willing to make a different set of tradeoffs than buyers at BR. I think we're all clear on that.

The interesting question is how BR compares to other Irvine alternatives. If you remove the FCBs out of the equation, how does BR compare to MV, RSM, LR, AV, LN, RMV, FR, etc.

It is slightly more expensive than Foothill Ranch and about on-par with AV. Significantly more expensive than MV, Ladera, RMV etc. I think BR is competing for the same buyer pool as other South OC cities, rather than that of Irvine. The difference is that BR/LF, FR, and maybe AV are about the only South OC communities that allow for an "Irvine-based" lifestyle (a reasonable drive without traffic to major jobs, restaurants, shops, and entertainment based in Irvine). It feels like further than BR/LF/FR/AV it becomes a hassle to go into Irvine regularly. But that's probably just my biased opinion.  8)

Yeah...we're probably talking past each other.  But overall I agree that BR is probably one of the better choices as an Irvine alternative.  Problem is that it's not really priced that way.

For example, LR is set at $316 per square foot...this place just sold for $820K and it is 2,800 square feet.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/65-Bedstraw-Loop-92694/home/5935520

You can get a new build in Rancho Mission Viejo also at $319 per sq. ft.  This one is at 2,394 sq. feet and driveway for $762,900. 
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Rancho-Mission-Viejo/Unknown-Unknown/home/56581862/bdx-1080150

Lake Forest:  2,672 square feet at $750,000.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Forest/24102-Brookfield-Cir-92630/home/4835638

Comparison, BR offers Ridgewood Plan 3 at 2,390 for $847,000+. 
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Forest/27-Snapdragon-92630/home/56563663

 

[eclipxe]

.

 

[OpenSky]

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Seems like the emphasis here was more on "new" than anything else.

One can live the "Irvine-centered lifestyle" just fine in Tustin Ranch or Tustin proper, for that matter. You'd have 2000+sqft, low/no mello roos, non motor court, and a large backyard. Also, no jail.

Next to Santa Ana or next to jail. Hmm. At least the criminals are already behind bars in the jail... 

All kidding aside Tustin is a fine place. Personally work is at the Spectrum so Tustin is a bit of a trek. What new home communities are in Tustin under 800k, detached, 2000sq ft + backyard?

Why the the obsession with "new?" It's extremely limiting.

Re-sales are incredibly difficult to get.  The good ones gets bought by FCBs and the leftovers are usually not too inspiring.  A lot of the re-sales are also priced pretty high and/or require lots of upgrades or changes.  Kinda of ruins the idea of re-sale.

New house are pricier but you can add upgrades and "custom" the house more to your liking.

 

[eyephone]

Seems like the emphasis here was more on "new" than anything else.

One can live the "Irvine-centered lifestyle" just fine in Tustin Ranch or Tustin proper, for that matter. You'd have 2000+sqft, low/no mello roos, non motor court, and a large backyard. Also, no jail.

Next to Santa Ana or next to jail. Hmm. At least the criminals are already behind bars in the jail... 

All kidding aside Tustin is a fine place. Personally work is at the Spectrum so Tustin is a bit of a trek. What new home communities are in Tustin under 800k, detached, 2000sq ft + backyard?

Why the the obsession with "new?" It's extremely limiting.

You know new car smell = new house feel

 

[eyephone]

Seems like the emphasis here was more on "new" than anything else.

One can live the "Irvine-centered lifestyle" just fine in Tustin Ranch or Tustin proper, for that matter. You'd have 2000+sqft, low/no mello roos, non motor court, and a large backyard. Also, no jail.

+1 Tustin Ranch is under rated

 

[OpenSky]

 

[eclipxe]

I don't take it personally, I don't care much about what the future appreciation holds in the property. If it goes up, it goes up. If it goes down it goes down. No biggie, it's just money - more will be made and more will be lost.

But, I think we're arguing different things here. I don't think BR is competitive with Irvine, I think it is 'close-enough' for many families that want an Irvine-based lifestyle but don't have the same requirements for IUSD/etc. I've already established that Irvine is special and buyers in Irvine are willing to make a different set of tradeoffs than buyers at BR. I think we're all clear on that.

The interesting question is how BR compares to other Irvine alternatives. If you remove the FCBs out of the equation, how does BR compare to MV, RSM, LR, AV, LN, RMV, FR, etc.

It is slightly more expensive than Foothill Ranch and about on-par with AV. Significantly more expensive than MV, Ladera, RMV etc. I think BR is competing for the same buyer pool as other South OC cities, rather than that of Irvine. The difference is that BR/LF, FR, and maybe AV are about the only South OC communities that allow for an "Irvine-based" lifestyle (a reasonable drive without traffic to major jobs, restaurants, shops, and entertainment based in Irvine). It feels like further than BR/LF/FR/AV it becomes a hassle to go into Irvine regularly. But that's probably just my biased opinion.  8)

Yeah...we're probably talking past each other.  But overall I agree that BR is probably one of the better choices as an Irvine alternative.  Problem is that it's not really priced that way.

For example, LR is set at $316 per square foot...this place just sold for $820K and it is 2,800 square feet.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/65-Bedstraw-Loop-92694/home/5935520

You can get a new build in Rancho Mission Viejo also at $319 per sq. ft.  This one is at 2,394 sq. feet and driveway for $762,900. 
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Rancho-Mission-Viejo/Unknown-Unknown/home/56581862/bdx-1080150

Lake Forest:  2,672 square feet at $750,000.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Forest/24102-Brookfield-Cir-92630/home/4835638

Comparison, BR offers Ridgewood Plan 3 at 2,390 for $847,000+. 
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Forest/27-Snapdragon-92630/home/56563663

Let's just look at RMV for example ->

$762,900. Total tax rate = 1.6, $12206/yr

Ridgewood: $847,000, Total tax rate = 1.04, $8808/yr

Difference of $3398 or $283/mo

At 4% interest rates, $50/mo is roughly $10k in house value, or $56800 at RMV.

Comparable total house cost at RMV = $819,700 vs $847,000

Is $27k in savings worth the tradeoffs of RMV location-wise? (BR has Jail, RMV has landfill, so that's a wash).

I think it's debatable (and what we should be doing) but I think you have to look at TCO before making a blanket statement that BR is overpriced.

---

As far as new vs. resale, there are too many variables to make a direct comparison (cost of upgrades vs. remodel, landscaping, mello roos, deferred maintenance, etc). Some people strongly prefer new and will pay a premium for it.

 

[eclipxe]

Re-sales are incredibly difficult to get.  The good ones gets bought by FCBs and the leftovers are usually not too inspiring.  A lot of the re-sales are also priced pretty high and/or require lots of upgrades or changes.  Kinda of ruins the idea of re-sale.

New house are pricier but you can add upgrades and "custom" the house more to your liking.

New homes usually involve long-ish waits, overpriced upgrades, lot premiums, schmoozing with the sales office to get the exact lot you want, etc.

There are a lot of great neighborhoods and floor plans in the resale space that don't have the trade offs that are endlessly debated.

Seems silly to arrive at the Baker Ranch conclusion, especially at the asking prices. You can score a really nice place in Tustin Ranch, even with cash leftover to upgrade it as needed.

There weren't that many quality resales in Tustin that met our criteria. Built > 1995, >2000sqft, under $850000, 4 bedrooms, not attached.

#1:http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Ana/25-Carriage-Ln-92705/home/4479765(pretty much Santa Ana, doesn't have South OC neighborhood feel)

#2:http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/2942-Humeston-Ave-92782/home/4764589$819,000 + mello roos. Total cost to own is equivalent to Baker Ranch, 15 years old, needs a new kitchen and appliances

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Are there other listings that you can find that meet the criteria?

 

[qwerty]

my favorite street to drive on is Tustin Ranch Road from Walnut to the 5. i love those big ass trees, actually come to think of it, kind of reminds of me a little

 

[NASCAR24]

C'mon ya'll, the real reason why people move to BR is to see me play mah drums of steel!

 

[SunDevilOC]

I got a resale down in Dove Canyon.  Under 700k no mello roos, HOA is kinda high at $235 but it is gated for that price.  I work 500 yards from Baker Ranch so it would have been ideal for that but 150k more for a small yard with no view did not add up.  I live in Woodbury East now and Dove Canyon is only 18 min from me.  I was born and raised in Irvine but it has just changed too much.  Less of a community feel here so it was time for a change.

 

[SunDevilOC]

Sorry my comment probably seems out of place since I was responding to a question from a couple pages of posts ago.  Congrats on the BR excipe.  If you can try to avoid the builder upgrades I would recommend it.  Everything is cheaper to do after close if you have the cash to do so. 

 

[socal78]

I got a resale down in Dove Canyon.  Under 700k no mello roos, HOA is kinda high at $235 but it is gated for that price.  I work 500 yards from Baker Ranch so it would have been ideal for that but 150k more for a small yard with no view did not add up.  I live in Woodbury East now and Dove Canyon is only 18 min from me.  I was born and raised in Irvine but it has just changed too much.  Less of a community feel here so it was time for a change.

Congratulations, SunDevilOC. Sounds like a good choice.