When would be next housing Bottom?

[Kings]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

 

[irvinehomeowner]

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.

Except 2010 wasn't the bottom... it was more like 2 years later in 2012. So why did you buy in 2010 instead of waiting since prices were still dropping? You didn't want to save 5% or more?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

Were you a first time buyer at both times? Were you able to afford either purchase? Did you like l owning vs renting?

It's not that simple as just bottom or not. Some people can't or don't want to wait 2 years... you didn't.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

I think some Millennials do enjoy taking advantages of living home in their parents basements.

Most still wants their own place and privacy space. And as high as rent goes for in Irvine, example Portola Court 1 bedroom at 2100 + a month, the place is full.

There are couples and married still want to save and live at home for a short term, then purchase when they are ready. In  all cases, they want their own place. And renting long term, is suicidal to your finance. But it makes landlords happy for sure.

 

[eyephone]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

#Boomerang

 

[Mety]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

If they're really hoping for such a huge crash, the majority of them would probably not get qualified to buy a house because that sort of crash would cost their jobs and financial stabilities. There is nothing wrong with trying to time the market, but there is many wrong with waiting for the next crash.

 

[eyephone]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

If they're really hoping for such a huge crash, the majority of them would probably not get qualified to buy a house because that sort of crash would cost their jobs and financial stabilities. There is nothing wrong with trying to time the market, but there is many wrong with waiting for the next crash.

Uh yeah

 

[Bullsback]

And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

I said during the last downturn that Irvine dropped less.  You, on the other hand, have said that Irvine always drops less.

Back in the mid 90's, where there was also a pretty big drop...I recall Irvine getting hit really hard. Not sure how it fared relative to other areas and obviously that is a long time ago, but I know in a very short window property prices took a huge hit and took a decent chunk of time to recover (not saying it was 08 bad). 

 

[Bullsback]

If I was a current buyer, I would wait another 6 months to see what will happen.  It is more likely to go flat or down right now.

However, I want to warn people that I felt this way in 2012 when I bought my house...
I wanted to wait a bit longer to 2013 when prices would be EVEN LOWER!!.....but I was lucky the seller accepted my low ball offer.

Ha - I was in the same boat as you in 2012...very glad that I ended up sticking with my purchase at that time. 

 

[Bullsback]

So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!

Well...I'll give you a scenario where LL is correct.  Lets say that the homes sitting vacant, which are owned and cash owned, the individuals decide they don't want to own them or there is a bigger macro liquidity event that forces that demographic of people to need access to their cash faster then others, which drives Irvine having a higher supply on homes in the market, further pushing down prices (all relative to other areas where you don't have as many heavy cash investors). 

Not saying I would bet odds on that happening, but that is a scenario that could emerge which would put Irvine in a different spot (From a purse supply of homes who are potentially forced to sell).  The caveat there is Irvine has high(er) demand than other areas and others who might look to jump in at that time to buffer that "downside". 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!

Well...I'll give you a scenario where LL is correct.  Lets say that the homes sitting vacant, which are owned and cash owned, the individuals decide they don't want to own them or there is a bigger macro liquidity event that forces that demographic of people to need access to their cash faster then others, which drives Irvine having a higher supply on homes in the market, further pushing down prices (all relative to other areas where you don't have as many heavy cash investors). 

Not saying I would bet odds on that happening, but that is a scenario that could emerge which would put Irvine in a different spot (From a purse supply of homes who are potentially forced to sell).  The caveat there is Irvine has high(er) demand than other areas and others who might look to jump in at that time to buffer that "downside". 

And that's exactly why.

Unlike others who don't understand the premium that Irvine has, I lived in Irvine during the 90s crash. We shopped homes in central OC during that time and were familiar with the market and prices. You could buy more for less in surrounding cities like Lake Forest but when it came to recovery, those cities lagged behind Irvine. People I know, wish they bought an Irvine house rather than somewhere else because it took longer to recover. I've said this before, but why do you think FCBs put their money into Irvine in the first place? If it crashed harder than all the other cities and/or took longer to recover, you think they bought in Irvine just so they could have a small lot and no driveway?

I can understand LL's disdain for the Orange balloon... but why did eyephone and meccos buy in Irvine?

I don't think they ever answered this question, but do they think that Irvine will do worse or better than surrounding cities?

 

[zubs]

If I was a current buyer, I would wait another 6 months to see what will happen.  It is more likely to go flat or down right now.

However, I want to warn people that I felt this way in 2012 when I bought my house...
I wanted to wait a bit longer to 2013 when prices would be EVEN LOWER!!.....but I was lucky the seller accepted my low ball offer.

Ha - I was in the same boat as you in 2012...very glad that I ended up sticking with my purchase at that time. 

Why did I think prices would stay flat or go even lower in 2013?....I think TI had something to do with it.  If you spend a lot of time on a bear forum, your expectations become twisted and TI was a huge bear forum back then.


However, calculated risk and USC told me the bottom was in, and that countered my bear indoctrination to at least get me out and looking at houses...and even making offers.  Plus we had already been hardcore bears since 2007....


We were 5 years into laughing about real estate, so how much longer could property values scrape along the bottom?

 

[Mety]

So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!

Well...I'll give you a scenario where LL is correct.  Lets say that the homes sitting vacant, which are owned and cash owned, the individuals decide they don't want to own them or there is a bigger macro liquidity event that forces that demographic of people to need access to their cash faster then others, which drives Irvine having a higher supply on homes in the market, further pushing down prices (all relative to other areas where you don't have as many heavy cash investors). 

Not saying I would bet odds on that happening, but that is a scenario that could emerge which would put Irvine in a different spot (From a purse supply of homes who are potentially forced to sell).  The caveat there is Irvine has high(er) demand than other areas and others who might look to jump in at that time to buffer that "downside". 

And that's exactly why.

Unlike others who don't understand the premium that Irvine has, I lived in Irvine during the 90s crash. We shopped homes in central OC during that time and were familiar with the market and prices. You could buy more for less in surrounding cities like Lake Forest but when it came to recovery, those cities lagged behind Irvine. People I know, wish they bought an Irvine house rather than somewhere else because it took longer to recover. I've said this before, but why do you think FCBs put their money into Irvine in the first place? If it crashed harder than all the other cities and/or took longer to recover, you think they bought in Irvine just so they could have a small lot and no driveway?

I can understand LL's disdain for the Orange balloon... but why did eyephone and meccos buy in Irvine?

I don't think they ever answered this question, but do they think that Irvine will do worse or better than surrounding cities?

If RE price goes down and there are many houses available on Irvine market, I'll most likely buy another one in Irvine (within our saving budget of course) either for rental or our own.

For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities. They just predicted a nation wide market top more than a year ago.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities.

That's not what I'm saying nor do I think that either.

What I am saying is that even for those say that Irvine is slowing down, it will not be as "painful" (to quote LL) as other cities. Which enforces why FCBs have bought in Irvine, and why there is a general belief that Irvine is more stable than surrounding cities (which has been backed by historical data despite LL's current stance on what is happening now).

 

[Mety]

For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities.

That's not what I'm saying nor do I think that either.

What I am saying is that even for those say that Irvine is slowing down, it will not be as "painful" (to quote LL) as other cities. Which enforces why FCBs have bought in Irvine, and why there is a general belief that Irvine is more stable than surrounding cities (which has been backed by historical data despite LL's current stance on what is happening now).

Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?" I think LL is the only person from what I've read. Kenkoko might be, but I can't be sure if he was saying Irvine would drop "more" than other cities. Others have been saying the whole US RE market is slowing down or the peak was a year ago.

We can dissect so many possibilities of what one's saying -

1. US RE is slowing down
2. Irvine is also slowing down
3. Irvine is NOT slowing down despite the US RE slowdown
4. Irvine is NOT slowing down because US RE is NOT slowing down
5. US RE is NOT slowing down

on
and
on

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?

 

[Mety]

Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?

So which number from I've listed does that belong to?

 

[Kenkoko]

For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities.

That's not what I'm saying nor do I think that either.

What I am saying is that even for those say that Irvine is slowing down, it will not be as "painful" (to quote LL) as other cities. Which enforces why FCBs have bought in Irvine, and why there is a general belief that Irvine is more stable than surrounding cities (which has been backed by historical data despite LL's current stance on what is happening now).

Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?" I think LL is the only person from what I've read. Kenkoko might be, but I can't be sure if he was saying Irvine would drop "more" than other cities. Others have been saying the whole US RE market is slowing down or the peak was a year ago.

We can dissect so many possibilities of what one's saying -

1. US RE is slowing down
2. Irvine is also slowing down
3. Irvine is NOT slowing down despite the US RE slowdown
4. Irvine is NOT slowing down because US RE is NOT slowing down
5. US RE is NOT slowing down

on
and
on

I am #1 and #2.  US RE is slowing down and Irvine is also slowing down. I am also in the camp that believes the short term peak was a year ago.

I do believe Irvine has a lot of downside resistance, but the upside pop is no longer the slam dunk it was in the past decade.

I am still bullish in the long term (20/30 years ) future of Irvine RE.

But there is no denying that the Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property. Trump has really hastened the decline of the Chinese economy. The Chinese FCBs may not come back in droves (2014-2016 style) in a long time.

 

[Happiness]

The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.

 

[the.irvine]

The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.

Yes agreed. I have seen a lot of activity recently. Even bigger homes 1.2M+ are moving fast.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.

Yeah, the bottom seemed to have been Sept to Dec 2018 and as rates started to drop that stabilized the lower end of the market.  It's the lower end of the market that is most sensitive to monthly payment changes.  Several of my lower end buyers would tell me...."my all in gross housing payment needs to stay under $X,XXX per month"  As rates continued lower and the lower end of the market stabilized more buyers came in and you started seeing multiple offers here and there.  Then the middle end of the market picked up in the Spring as rates continued to fall further and those buyers felt that the bottom wasn't dropping out of the market.  Around the same time the higher end buyers came out of the wood work peaking around and throwing offers here and there to see what stuck (these buyers were/are being the most selective and patient).  My guess is that if rates stay this low or grind lower and you don't see job losses, any price declines will be limited and muted.  Trust me, buyers are out there but they are taking their time and being selective (as they should).