irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
Unsure of the relevancy to my point here.
If you bought in Irvine, there has to be some belief in its value proposition over other cities.
When would be next housing Bottom?
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Unsure of the relevancy to my point here.
If you bought in Irvine, there has to be some belief in its value proposition over other cities.
The interest rate drop stabilized the lower and middle end of the market because it was weakening in the Fall/Winter of 2018. I think there is too much inventory on the market for prices (including unsold new home inventory...today's shadow inventory) to surge and because of that many buyers are patient and selective as they should be. In order for prices to go up meaningfully, the market will have to clear that excess inventory first. I do agree with you that things in the realtor world are not the same as it was in early 2018 but the good agents are still taking care of business. It's the weak links that are getting weeded out of the system, as they always do in a slowdown/downturn.
There is a surge in application for rentals.
I love how you like telling half truths. Yeah I said Irvine was slowing down because it did slow down. Does anyone actually refute that Irvine slowed down?
However, I do take objection to the statement that I was recommending people wait to buy a home. You had issues with others telling people to wait. Although I would agree with those "other" people, I specifically stated multiple times that people should not be listening to me to make such a big decision. However with that said, if people did follow those "other" peoples advice, they saved a ton of money.
I'm saying meccos12 probably said Irvine was slowing down because the entire US RE market was slowing down.
As far as I know, LL is the only person who said Irvine specifically would be hit more than other cities. People who were saying Irvine was slowing down weren't really saying Irvine was slowing down more than other cities or anything. Which is WHY they all bought in Irvine. No one ever put Irvine down more than other cities except LL who didn't buy in Irvine himself. Hope this is clear.
Now that Kenkoko him/herself has chimed in saying not as many FCBs would be there to save Irvine market from now on, that's the point he/she wants to say that Irvine would not be performing any better in case of crash.
I must say if anyone really waited because of what meccos12 and eyephone has predicted and suggested, then yes, they can thank them for such a good advice because buying now is much better than buying a year ago in general. Of course one can always nitpick and say the home that was on a market a year ago would be more like someone's dream home so buying then and refinancing now is not a bad deal either. If we start to nitpick like that, then there is no end. JUST IN GENERAL, buying now is much better in terms of prices, interest rates, and also the supplies even among just Irvine markets.
Now the real question is "Where are we headed from here?" I don't know yet, but I surely do see more and more people in open houses in the neighbor. Last year, there was no one, this year, the cars and people don't really stop coming by. Just saying what I'm witnessing.
So supporting people who say to wait isn't also recommending that people should wait. In most cases, you support somone's opinion because you share it. But I guess that's a good way to hedge.
But again, that's not my point. The topic at hand was if Irvine will feel more pain than other cities in this current "slowdown". Do you believe that? Why did you buy in Irvine (if you did)?
Isn't that what I've always said? It's situational and based on your own scenario. I can concede that depending on where you are at, you should wait, but I don't agree that you should always wait based on predictions of a slowdown, especially when no one knows the magnitude.
This current slowdown, just talking prices in Irvine, is less than 5%. When I mentioned that number last year, no one would say how much the slowdown was so I said that if it was within that margin... or even less than the historical seasonal drops of 15% the last 5+ years, what would waiting do?
Think about it, for the last 6 years, seasonal drops have been around 5%, why wasn't anyone saying wait back then? To me, buying now is not so different from buying in the trough the year before or the year before. And I said, it was actually better to wait a few years ago when there was bigger dip but no one was making such a big deal of slowdown back then.
And based on actual members who posted, there are about the same number of people who may have saved money and who didn't really care and were happy with purchasing last year, now or in the near future because they just want to own.
What's the verdict now? Continue to wait for the lag of prices to volume? Wait for the painful event LL is forecasting? Wait for NY real estate? Wait for a bottom that no one wants to predict a percentage for?
Just take your finances into account, figure out how long you can stay in a home and live your life.
To IHO points of ?pain?, it?s still painfully getting a loan and it is still painfully expensive to rent in Irvine. So the pain is real.
NYC real estate just like other higher end markets aren't doing well, including Irvine's higher end market. NYC doesn't really have much of a lower end or middle market, it's basically all higher end in my opinion. Residential real estate is also driven by emotion and momentum just like the stock market (just doesn't move as quickly as a high beta tech stock) so watch the trends and data points (e.g. inventory levels, pricing trends, etc).
No doubt that foreign buyer activity is down for various reasons like the stronger dollar, the tariffs, slowing growth in other countries, etc.
Timing the price bottom was not my objective. Timing the affordability bottom was.
What that means is I was trying to time the lowest cost of housing based on the combination of prices and interest rates. When I bought, QE1 (then simply known as QE) had ended and it was my belief that interests rates were heading up in 2011. Of course, I ended up being wrong about that, along with the rest of the world, but that was my thinking at the time. It didn't occur to me that QE2, QE3, and QE Infinity were still to come. I was willing to take a 5% price loss on paper if it meant scoring the lowest possible payment. Remember, I was still paying for a peak purchase condo, so I needed to qualify based on two mortgage payments (rents would not count as income on the condo for underwriting).
Unfortunately, most of my thinking on this subject was captured at the OC Reader which no longer exists, so I can't link to it.
The other reason that I bought in Fall 2010 is because my full PITI payment was equal to comparable rent (unlike my 2006 purchase where the cost of ownership was much higher than rents). So I viewed purchasing at that point as a very low risk proposition. Even if prices continued to decline, I could rent my house out if we needed to move and still break even.
Moral of the Story: Buying near the bottom resoundingly beats buying at the top! I can speak from experience and advise others to time the market cycle to improve their position if at all possible.
I understand but using the logic of other posters here you should have waited. Not only were prices lower but interest rates were lower and you could have saved much more.
All you really did was prove my position, that you should buy when it's affordable for you because you can't really predict where prices or interest rates are going with absolute certainty. That 5% loss was even greater when you factor in interest rates... that's like over 16% (meccos math)... and as I've been told on numerous occasions... 16+% could be hundreds of thousands of dollars!!!
BTW: Does anyone know where can I get an Excel/csv download of historical prices by month for Irvine? Using charts is hard because unless it gives you the actual price per month, it's just eyeballing it. Now that I look more closely at Larry's chart (and even USC's), I really do think the realistic Irvine drop in the last crash was closer to 20% than 30% (or 28%). I don't mind paying for it, it just needs to go back to 1980 if possible.
Unsure of the relevancy to my point here.
If you bought in Irvine, there has to be some belief in its value proposition over other cities.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
eyephone said:
The interest rate drop stabilized the lower and middle end of the market because it was weakening in the Fall/Winter of 2018. I think there is too much inventory on the market for prices (including unsold new home inventory...today's shadow inventory) to surge and because of that many buyers are patient and selective as they should be. In order for prices to go up meaningfully, the market will have to clear that excess inventory first. I do agree with you that things in the realtor world are not the same as it was in early 2018 but the good agents are still taking care of business. It's the weak links that are getting weeded out of the system, as they always do in a slowdown/downturn.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
In a slowdown, there wouldn't be surge in prices due to lower interest rates, it would just be a reduced drop or flattening.
This could be why prices haven't dropped as much as the drop in volume (so far, none of the slowdowners have offered their theory other than lag).
Again, because owners are much more financially stable than previous years, if no other economic disasters hit, there won't be the large drops like we have seen in previous years.
This could be why prices haven't dropped as much as the drop in volume (so far, none of the slowdowners have offered their theory other than lag).
Again, because owners are much more financially stable than previous years, if no other economic disasters hit, there won't be the large drops like we have seen in previous years.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
There is a surge in application for rentals.
irvinehomeowner said:
I love how you like telling half truths. Yeah I said Irvine was slowing down because it did slow down. Does anyone actually refute that Irvine slowed down?
However, I do take objection to the statement that I was recommending people wait to buy a home. You had issues with others telling people to wait. Although I would agree with those "other" people, I specifically stated multiple times that people should not be listening to me to make such a big decision. However with that said, if people did follow those "other" peoples advice, they saved a ton of money.
According to this article, looks like housing will not go down anytime soon. Inventory/supply is going down again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/lower-mortgage-rates-are-causing-an-epic-housing-shortage.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/lower-mortgage-rates-are-causing-an-epic-housing-shortage.html
irvinehomeowner said:
I'm saying meccos12 probably said Irvine was slowing down because the entire US RE market was slowing down.
As far as I know, LL is the only person who said Irvine specifically would be hit more than other cities. People who were saying Irvine was slowing down weren't really saying Irvine was slowing down more than other cities or anything. Which is WHY they all bought in Irvine. No one ever put Irvine down more than other cities except LL who didn't buy in Irvine himself. Hope this is clear.
Now that Kenkoko him/herself has chimed in saying not as many FCBs would be there to save Irvine market from now on, that's the point he/she wants to say that Irvine would not be performing any better in case of crash.
eyephone said:
I must say if anyone really waited because of what meccos12 and eyephone has predicted and suggested, then yes, they can thank them for such a good advice because buying now is much better than buying a year ago in general. Of course one can always nitpick and say the home that was on a market a year ago would be more like someone's dream home so buying then and refinancing now is not a bad deal either. If we start to nitpick like that, then there is no end. JUST IN GENERAL, buying now is much better in terms of prices, interest rates, and also the supplies even among just Irvine markets.
Now the real question is "Where are we headed from here?" I don't know yet, but I surely do see more and more people in open houses in the neighbor. Last year, there was no one, this year, the cars and people don't really stop coming by. Just saying what I'm witnessing.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
So supporting people who say to wait isn't also recommending that people should wait. In most cases, you support somone's opinion because you share it. But I guess that's a good way to hedge.
But again, that's not my point. The topic at hand was if Irvine will feel more pain than other cities in this current "slowdown". Do you believe that? Why did you buy in Irvine (if you did)?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
Isn't that what I've always said? It's situational and based on your own scenario. I can concede that depending on where you are at, you should wait, but I don't agree that you should always wait based on predictions of a slowdown, especially when no one knows the magnitude.
This current slowdown, just talking prices in Irvine, is less than 5%. When I mentioned that number last year, no one would say how much the slowdown was so I said that if it was within that margin... or even less than the historical seasonal drops of 15% the last 5+ years, what would waiting do?
Think about it, for the last 6 years, seasonal drops have been around 5%, why wasn't anyone saying wait back then? To me, buying now is not so different from buying in the trough the year before or the year before. And I said, it was actually better to wait a few years ago when there was bigger dip but no one was making such a big deal of slowdown back then.
And based on actual members who posted, there are about the same number of people who may have saved money and who didn't really care and were happy with purchasing last year, now or in the near future because they just want to own.
What's the verdict now? Continue to wait for the lag of prices to volume? Wait for the painful event LL is forecasting? Wait for NY real estate? Wait for a bottom that no one wants to predict a percentage for?
Just take your finances into account, figure out how long you can stay in a home and live your life.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
To IHO points of ?pain?, it?s still painfully getting a loan and it is still painfully expensive to rent in Irvine. So the pain is real.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
eyephone said:
NYC real estate just like other higher end markets aren't doing well, including Irvine's higher end market. NYC doesn't really have much of a lower end or middle market, it's basically all higher end in my opinion. Residential real estate is also driven by emotion and momentum just like the stock market (just doesn't move as quickly as a high beta tech stock) so watch the trends and data points (e.g. inventory levels, pricing trends, etc).
According to this article, you would save about $950 a month compare to 2018. I'm not sure how accurate or trustful this source is, but I'll take $950 monthly savings any day any time, baby. https://www.irvinestandard.com/2019/historically-low-rates-offer-opportunity-for-irvine-homebuyers/
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
eyephone said:
No doubt that foreign buyer activity is down for various reasons like the stronger dollar, the tariffs, slowing growth in other countries, etc.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Timing the price bottom was not my objective. Timing the affordability bottom was.
What that means is I was trying to time the lowest cost of housing based on the combination of prices and interest rates. When I bought, QE1 (then simply known as QE) had ended and it was my belief that interests rates were heading up in 2011. Of course, I ended up being wrong about that, along with the rest of the world, but that was my thinking at the time. It didn't occur to me that QE2, QE3, and QE Infinity were still to come. I was willing to take a 5% price loss on paper if it meant scoring the lowest possible payment. Remember, I was still paying for a peak purchase condo, so I needed to qualify based on two mortgage payments (rents would not count as income on the condo for underwriting).
Unfortunately, most of my thinking on this subject was captured at the OC Reader which no longer exists, so I can't link to it.
The other reason that I bought in Fall 2010 is because my full PITI payment was equal to comparable rent (unlike my 2006 purchase where the cost of ownership was much higher than rents). So I viewed purchasing at that point as a very low risk proposition. Even if prices continued to decline, I could rent my house out if we needed to move and still break even.
Moral of the Story: Buying near the bottom resoundingly beats buying at the top! I can speak from experience and advise others to time the market cycle to improve their position if at all possible.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
I understand but using the logic of other posters here you should have waited. Not only were prices lower but interest rates were lower and you could have saved much more.
All you really did was prove my position, that you should buy when it's affordable for you because you can't really predict where prices or interest rates are going with absolute certainty. That 5% loss was even greater when you factor in interest rates... that's like over 16% (meccos math)... and as I've been told on numerous occasions... 16+% could be hundreds of thousands of dollars!!!
BTW: Does anyone know where can I get an Excel/csv download of historical prices by month for Irvine? Using charts is hard because unless it gives you the actual price per month, it's just eyeballing it. Now that I look more closely at Larry's chart (and even USC's), I really do think the realistic Irvine drop in the last crash was closer to 20% than 30% (or 28%). I don't mind paying for it, it just needs to go back to 1980 if possible.