When would be next housing Bottom?

[jamesKirk]

If they are parking their money why choose a bank with such high fees like GP (HOA and MR)?

When I choose a bank to open a savings account I look for the lowest fees possible.

 

[Kenkoko]

People are willing to ignore the cost when the market is trending up.
The appreciation rate of the past decade is more than enough to cover the cost.

The purpose of buying Irvine homes for many Chinese investors was never MAXROI. It was to stock away rainy day funds in a safe and relatively liquid investment.
But, as the Irvine market continues to stay flat or even slightly decline, more Chinese investors will reconsider burning 2% every year.

Some people here on TI like to talk in absolutes but most of these happens at the margins. Nobody sane is saying Chinese investment will go from 2016 level to absolute zero.
But they are slowing down and will keep winding down.

A common (and false) assumption many make on TI is ? Chinese are not going to move money back to China -> therefore they won?t sell their Irvine RE?
The only correct part is that money is not going back to China. But that money gets moved to Canada, Singapore, Australia, US bonds/treasury, and REITs.

Most FCBs we know are very diversified in their investments. Many already started to move money away from Irvine RE when it started to lose its luster last year.

As long as the trump effect in still in play, I believe this trend will continue.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Nature abhors a vacuum.

If Chinese FCBs dwindle away, there are many others, FCBs or not, that will buy their homes.

That's the thing about Irvine that other OC cities don't have, a large and diverse demand that is well financed. Sure, coastal cities are probably better financed... but that is a narrow demographic compared to who likes to live in Irvine. There are a quite a few other non-FCB demographics too... seniors, college students and religious groups just to name a few.

That's why any "pain" felt in Irvine during this "slowdown" will be smaller compared to other cities. Leading the drop is irrelevant, it's how far the drop is and how long it can bounce back that is important.

 

[lnc]

Nature abhors a vacuum.

If Chinese FCBs dwindle away, there are many others, FCBs or not, that will buy their homes.

That's the thing about Irvine that other OC cities don't have, a large and diverse demand that is well financed. Sure, coastal cities are probably better financed... but that is a narrow demographic compared to who likes to live in Irvine. There are a quite a few other non-FCB demographics too... seniors, college students and religious groups just to name a few.

That's why any "pain" felt in Irvine during this "slowdown" will be smaller compared to other cities. Leading the drop is irrelevant, it's how far the drop is and how long it can bounce back that is important.

Totally agree with this.

I do agree the housing market is slowing down but we merely slowing from a super hot housing market to a more normal or a neutral market.

After the great housing downturn the market was very slow up until middle of 2012.  And from 2013 to 2018, the housing was very hot.  But now I think we are entering a period of normal housing market that we haven?t seen for more than a decade.

With modest growth in economy, low inflation rate, low unemployment, low mortgage rate, very modest home prices increase (2-5% annual increase), and just right amount of housing inventories, the housing market is just fine.

 

[zubs]

If you own 5 houses in Beacon park all paid in cash, and it's sitting empty, while you pay 2%/year to maintain it, why not just rent it out instead of selling it and moving the money away.  Is there a better investment for parking money?


Before you could earn the rent and appreciation, but now ...the rent will have to do.

 

[Liar Loan]

Nature abhors a vacuum.

If Chinese FCBs dwindle away, there are many others, FCBs or not, that will buy their homes.

That's the thing about Irvine that other OC cities don't have, a large and diverse demand that is well financed. Sure, coastal cities are probably better financed... but that is a narrow demographic compared to who likes to live in Irvine. There are a quite a few other non-FCB demographics too... seniors, college students and religious groups just to name a few.

That's why any "pain" felt in Irvine during this "slowdown" will be smaller compared to other cities. Leading the drop is irrelevant, it's how far the drop is and how long it can bounce back that is important.

Totally agree with this.

I do agree the housing market is slowing down but we merely slowing from a super hot housing market to a more normal or a neutral market.

After the great housing downturn the market was very slow up until middle of 2012.  And from 2013 to 2018, the housing was very hot.  But now I think we are entering a period of normal housing market that we haven?t seen for more than a decade.

With modest growth in economy, low inflation rate, low unemployment, low mortgage rate, very modest home prices increase (2-5% annual increase), and just right amount of housing inventories, the housing market is just fine.

Except Irvine prices are declining by 2-5% annually..... and that's without a recession.  tic, tic, tic...

 

[Mety]

Nature abhors a vacuum.

If Chinese FCBs dwindle away, there are many others, FCBs or not, that will buy their homes.

That's the thing about Irvine that other OC cities don't have, a large and diverse demand that is well financed. Sure, coastal cities are probably better financed... but that is a narrow demographic compared to who likes to live in Irvine. There are a quite a few other non-FCB demographics too... seniors, college students and religious groups just to name a few.

That's why any "pain" felt in Irvine during this "slowdown" will be smaller compared to other cities. Leading the drop is irrelevant, it's how far the drop is and how long it can bounce back that is important.

Totally agree with this.

I do agree the housing market is slowing down but we merely slowing from a super hot housing market to a more normal or a neutral market.

After the great housing downturn the market was very slow up until middle of 2012.  And from 2013 to 2018, the housing was very hot.  But now I think we are entering a period of normal housing market that we haven?t seen for more than a decade.

With modest growth in economy, low inflation rate, low unemployment, low mortgage rate, very modest home prices increase (2-5% annual increase), and just right amount of housing inventories, the housing market is just fine.

Except Irvine prices are declining by 2-5% annually..... and that's without a recession.  tic, tic, tic...

Are you saying all the other cities will be fine and only Irvine will experience tremendous amount of pain of recession or some sort of price reductions?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Nature abhors a vacuum.

If Chinese FCBs dwindle away, there are many others, FCBs or not, that will buy their homes.

That's the thing about Irvine that other OC cities don't have, a large and diverse demand that is well financed. Sure, coastal cities are probably better financed... but that is a narrow demographic compared to who likes to live in Irvine. There are a quite a few other non-FCB demographics too... seniors, college students and religious groups just to name a few.

That's why any "pain" felt in Irvine during this "slowdown" will be smaller compared to other cities. Leading the drop is irrelevant, it's how far the drop is and how long it can bounce back that is important.

Totally agree with this.

I do agree the housing market is slowing down but we merely slowing from a super hot housing market to a more normal or a neutral market.

After the great housing downturn the market was very slow up until middle of 2012.  And from 2013 to 2018, the housing was very hot.  But now I think we are entering a period of normal housing market that we haven?t seen for more than a decade.

With modest growth in economy, low inflation rate, low unemployment, low mortgage rate, very modest home prices increase (2-5% annual increase), and just right amount of housing inventories, the housing market is just fine.

Except Irvine prices are declining by 2-5% annually..... and that's without a recession.  tic, tic, tic...

Are you saying all the other cities will be fine and only Irvine will experience tremendous amount of pain of recession or some sort of price reductions?

Yup, classic TROLL Liars Loans. That?s a great question Mety.

 

[Kings]

all global housing price indices are falling, so i don't buy that there are other international markets that fcbs will take their money.  usa is still the safest place to invest and keep your money if already invested.

 

[Liar Loan]

Nature abhors a vacuum.

If Chinese FCBs dwindle away, there are many others, FCBs or not, that will buy their homes.

That's the thing about Irvine that other OC cities don't have, a large and diverse demand that is well financed. Sure, coastal cities are probably better financed... but that is a narrow demographic compared to who likes to live in Irvine. There are a quite a few other non-FCB demographics too... seniors, college students and religious groups just to name a few.

That's why any "pain" felt in Irvine during this "slowdown" will be smaller compared to other cities. Leading the drop is irrelevant, it's how far the drop is and how long it can bounce back that is important.

Totally agree with this.

I do agree the housing market is slowing down but we merely slowing from a super hot housing market to a more normal or a neutral market.

After the great housing downturn the market was very slow up until middle of 2012.  And from 2013 to 2018, the housing was very hot.  But now I think we are entering a period of normal housing market that we haven?t seen for more than a decade.

With modest growth in economy, low inflation rate, low unemployment, low mortgage rate, very modest home prices increase (2-5% annual increase), and just right amount of housing inventories, the housing market is just fine.

Except Irvine prices are declining by 2-5% annually..... and that's without a recession.  tic, tic, tic...

Are you saying all the other cities will be fine and only Irvine will experience tremendous amount of pain of recession or some sort of price reductions?

It's not a prediction about Irvine crashing harder than other cities.  It's a statement of fact: Irvine IS crashing 2-3x harder than the rest of OC!! 

And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

Better buckle up!  This ride is just getting started!!  Even the Chinese are bailing out!!  Whoo Whoo!

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It's not a prediction about Irvine crashing harder than other cities.  It's a statement of fact: Irvine IS crashing 2-3x harder than the rest of OC!! 

Hah. Based on a single point in time from a few sites? Hyperbole abound!

And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

 

[Liar Loan]

And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

I said during the last downturn that Irvine dropped less.  You, on the other hand, have said that Irvine always drops less.

 

[Liar Loan]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

 

[zubs]

If I was a current buyer, I would wait another 6 months to see what will happen.  It is more likely to go flat or down right now.

However, I want to warn people that I felt this way in 2012 when I bought my house...
I wanted to wait a bit longer to 2013 when prices would be EVEN LOWER!!.....but I was lucky the seller accepted my low ball offer.

 

[Mety]

So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!

 

[Liar Loan]

So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!

I just looked at his profile page hoping to paste his avatar in this thread, but alas, he deleted the photo.

Yet I found something else interesting:

Thanks given by LL to YF: 40
Thanks taken from YF to LL: 123

What a high compliment!  I don't remember him ever saying he liked my posts, but he thanked me 3x as many times as I thanked him!  I truly feel like a member of an elite club to have earned his respect!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

I said during the last downturn that Irvine dropped less.  You, on the other hand, have said that Irvine always drops less.

How do you know that this time Irvine won't drop less? Is the slowdown over? So this is the bottom?

You're calling the race before it's over... but maybe that's the only way you can make this look bad for Irvine, to say right now, on October 9, Irvine is crashing harder than other cities. So funny.

Fuzzy math and fake news.

 

[Liar Loan]

And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

I said during the last downturn that Irvine dropped less.  You, on the other hand, have said that Irvine always drops less.

How do you know that this time Irvine won't drop less? Is the slowdown over? So this is the bottom?

You're calling the race before it's over... but maybe that's the only way you can make this look bad for Irvine, to say right now, on October 9, Irvine is crashing harder than other cities. So funny.

Fuzzy math and fake news.

tic, tic, tic...

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Sure, it?s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don?t mind a bit of discounts.

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?