When would be next housing Bottom?

[zubs]

Even if the Chinese sold their Irvine homes, what are they gonna do with that money?  Put it into the stock market?...buy bitcoins? gold?
No they are going to ride out the downturn and not move shit.  It's probably why you currently see the massive Irvine inventory with only a small price drop.

Current owners don't have to sell and don't have a better place to put their money if they do sell.

 

[Kenkoko]

Even if the Chinese sold their Irvine homes, what are they gonna do with that money?  Put it into the stock market?...buy bitcoins? gold?
No they are going to ride out the downturn and not move shit.  It's probably why you currently see the massive Irvine inventory with only a small price drop.

Current owners don't have to sell and don't have a better place to put their money if they do sell.

They've actually moved money to Singapore, Australia, Canada (Toronto)

A business insider article about 6 months ago (I linked in an earlier thread) dropped US from #1 to #4 for top Chinese capital flows.

Just because they are not converting money back into RMB doesn't mean their money stays here.

 

[zubs]

Are you saying the Chinese in Irvine are actively selling their homes so they can move it to Singapore, Australia, Canada?

 

[Kenkoko]

money will find a way

Yes, for sure money will always find a way out of China albeit at lower volume.

But the bigger issue is USA is no longer the top destination of that flow of capital due to the Trump effect.

 

[Kenkoko]

Are you saying the Chinese in Irvine are actively selling their homes so they can move it to Singapore, Australia, Canada?

There is no data point specifically for Irvine. It's the overall flow of Chinese capital.

 

[zubs]

I think the Chinese capital that is already in Irvine will stay in Irvine.
I think the Chinese capital that is new will go elsewhere, but some will still come to Irvine, but not as much as 2017.

I don't think Irvine is going to drop more than 10%.....But we'll see in the next 2 years.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I also don't know what percentage *Chinese* money is in Irvine.

A long time ago I was working on some public records ownership stuff in an Irvine hood and I was surprised by how many non-Chinese names I came across.

 

[Kenkoko]

I think the Chinese capital that is already in Irvine will stay in Irvine.

Agree on older capital that was invested here. I would say Woodbury is probably a good line to draw. Newer development have not appreciated and has much higher burn rate due to higher prop tax. Those may not stay.

I think the Chinese capital that is new will go elsewhere, but some will still come to Irvine, but not as much as 2017.

agree

I don't think Irvine is going to drop more than 10%.....But we'll see in the next 2 years.

Will depend on the trade war. Things are bad in China.

 

[Kenkoko]

I also don't know what percentage *Chinese* money is in Irvine.

A long time ago I was working on some public records ownership stuff in an Irvine hood and I was surprised by how many non-Chinese names I came across.

This is definitely true before Woodbury.

But I do know (post 2016) many newer Chinese buyers went LLC or bought under somebody else's name to skirt China's capital flow restrictions. It may skew the record somewhat.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is definitely true before Woodbury.

But I do know (post 2016) many newer Chinese buyers went LLC or bought under somebody else's name to skirt China's capital flow restrictions. It may skew the record somewhat.

But that's my point. There are tons more homes in Irvine before Woodbury than post Woodbury. So even if there was 75% saturation in Stonegate, CV, CVE, LA, etc... and they all bailed (which would not happen)... that still leaves the majority of Irvine for stability.

 

[Kenkoko]

This is definitely true before Woodbury.

But I do know (post 2016) many newer Chinese buyers went LLC or bought under somebody else's name to skirt China's capital flow restrictions. It may skew the record somewhat.

But that's my point. There are tons more homes in Irvine before Woodbury than post Woodbury. So even if there was 75% saturation in Stonegate, CV, CVE, LA, etc... and they all bailed (which would not happen)... that still leaves the majority of Irvine for stability.

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

The reason why I agreed with Panda on 5% - 15% drop in 3/5 years is I saw the possibility of a Chinese meltdown coincided with a US slowdown. This trade war is certainly making my prediction looking more and more likely. If that happens, it would be the buying opportunity for people who are still on the sidelines.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

This is definitely true before Woodbury.

But I do know (post 2016) many newer Chinese buyers went LLC or bought under somebody else's name to skirt China's capital flow restrictions. It may skew the record somewhat.

But that's my point. There are tons more homes in Irvine before Woodbury than post Woodbury. So even if there was 75% saturation in Stonegate, CV, CVE, LA, etc... and they all bailed (which would not happen)... that still leaves the majority of Irvine for stability.

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

The reason why I agreed with Panda on 5% - 15% drop in 3/5 years is I saw the possibility of a Chinese meltdown coincided with a US slowdown. This trade war is certainly making my prediction looking more and more likely. If that happens, it would be the buying opportunity for people who are still on the sidelines.

Upward movement is one direction, downward movements is another direction, the one you forget to mention is sideway where flat or +-1 or 2 % is what I predict going to be the range until the ?Cold War? with China resolve. This tariff is nothing more than a war without a single bullet with China.

The American people unlike China will have a voice comes November 2020, and if the recessions bring suffering and hardship, American will vote out Trump and make deals with China, then  BOOM everything will be hunky dory.

I recalled during the dot com bust, recessions 2000-2001, housing did fairly well. It was when people ran from equities to housing for covers.

 

[meccos12]

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

I would have to disagree here.  If there is a Chinese sell-off, places like Irvine are exactly where we will feel it.  Where have and where do all the Chinese own homes?  Irvine, Arcardia, Walnut, etc.  Because of the high percentage of Chinese ownership in these cities, your argument does not hold up well.

 

[eyephone]

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

I would have to disagree here.  If there is a Chinese sell-off, places like Irvine are exactly where we will feel it.  Where have and where do all the Chinese own homes?  Irvine, Arcardia, Walnut, etc.  Because of the high percentage of Chinese ownership in these cities, your argument does not hold up well.

Don?t buy rating by Meccos jk jk

(For entertainment purposes)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

I would have to disagree here.  If there is a Chinese sell-off, places like Irvine are exactly where we will feel it.  Where have and where do all the Chinese own homes?  Irvine, Arcardia, Walnut, etc.  Because of the high percentage of Chinese ownership in these cities, your argument does not hold up well.

What do you think is the percentage of Chinese ownership in Irvine?

While it may be high comparatively, especially in the newer homes, there are more than just Chinese owners in the entirety of Irvine.

 

[Leaf]

Chinese money still flows in Irvine, but just in a much slower pace. Rich people always have their ways to get around the regulation. I went to a couple of open houses in the past two weekends, and I met a bunch of visitors from China.

 

[Liar Loan]

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

I would have to disagree here.  If there is a Chinese sell-off, places like Irvine are exactly where we will feel it.  Where have and where do all the Chinese own homes?  Irvine, Arcardia, Walnut, etc.  Because of the high percentage of Chinese ownership in these cities, your argument does not hold up well.

What do you think is the percentage of Chinese ownership in Irvine?

While it may be high comparatively, especially in the newer homes, there are more than just Chinese owners in the entirety of Irvine.

If FCB's rescued Irvine during the Great Recession, the reverse could be true this time.  They may not be there to help with home prices, and they could represent a new class of motivated seller if things get bad enough.

 

[Mety]

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

I would have to disagree here.  If there is a Chinese sell-off, places like Irvine are exactly where we will feel it.  Where have and where do all the Chinese own homes?  Irvine, Arcardia, Walnut, etc.  Because of the high percentage of Chinese ownership in these cities, your argument does not hold up well.

What do you think is the percentage of Chinese ownership in Irvine?

While it may be high comparatively, especially in the newer homes, there are more than just Chinese owners in the entirety of Irvine.

If FCB's rescued Irvine during the Great Recession, the reverse could be true this time.  They may not be there to help with home prices, and they could represent a new class of motivated seller if things get bad enough.

You guys don't get it. Overpriced cities will always be overpriced no matter what. When was the last time any of you said, "Irvine is so affordable"? You guys always have been complaining how Irvine homes are expensive. It will always be that way even when the price goes down if you know what I mean.

 

[akkord]

You guys don't get it. Overpriced cities will always be overpriced no matter what. When was the last time any of you said, "Irvine is so affordable"? You guys always have been complaining how Irvine homes are expensive. It will always be that way even when the price goes down if you know what I mean.

2001 I asked my parents to help me buy a place out here, homes were 200-400k in Irvine, definitely affordable for my parents at the time, but not for me at that point in my life. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I agree with you for the most part. Which is why I've said here before if the US economy stays strong and we just have a Chinese sell-off, we would barely feel it.

I would have to disagree here.  If there is a Chinese sell-off, places like Irvine are exactly where we will feel it.  Where have and where do all the Chinese own homes?  Irvine, Arcardia, Walnut, etc.  Because of the high percentage of Chinese ownership in these cities, your argument does not hold up well.

What do you think is the percentage of Chinese ownership in Irvine?

While it may be high comparatively, especially in the newer homes, there are more than just Chinese owners in the entirety of Irvine.

If FCB's rescued Irvine during the Great Recession, the reverse could be true this time.  They may not be there to help with home prices, and they could represent a new class of motivated seller if things get bad enough.

But the reference here is specifically to *Chinese* FCBs.